Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

[AnonyMint]

Please do return to the thread topic.

Yeah maybe I am entirely wrong. But even if there is only 1% chance I am correct (and I think the probability is much higher than that), is it rational to risk your freedom? Would you walk in front of 20 guys with 5 round pistols, with one bullet in one of the pistols and one guy will pull the trigger with the gun pointed at your head?

If we assume there is a 20% chance I am correct (Pareto principle), that is 1 guy with one 5 round pistol. I don't like those odds.

And it is not just our individual freedom at stake. Once the digital system is in place, that is essentially the foundation for 666.

Donating to charity doesn't erase a tax due to capital gain realized before the donation. Europeans apparently don't have to worry about capital gains, but I think rather they have an unknown tax regime, because the EU will "harmonize" with the USA and G20, because so many Europeans (and Asian crony taipans) are moving capital to the USA to buy real estate to hide it from EU taxation (and coming social backlash in China as their highly imbalanced economy implodes). I expect retroactive bullshit.

If I am correct, you've already fucked yourself by buying this thing. I suppose the best you could do would be to report your gains and pay tax when you exit, then anonymously enter another coin that would rise 100000X, so then you can afford to pay any retroactive tax increase or other bullshit the government might pull on you.

This hereby terminates the horror movie salesmanship. Back to Neverland programming.

[SlipperySlope]

Anyway, enough paranoia derailing a really cool thread.

I was curious the difference between SlipperySlope's charts which show around $6000 at the end of 2015 and this chart posted on another thread:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fy8wpDSZ/

which shows around $2500 instead.  Both are compelling, but show a wide gap.  Any takers as to why the difference?

Personally, I tend to discount the $2500 since in 12 months we should be a little past $4000, so $6000 sounds more accurate given the history of bitcoin, and if anything we're at the part of the Sigmoid where it should speed up a little.

Still, it's hard to argue with this chart.  So what's wrong with it that I am missing?

To be precise, in a logistic function, i.e. sigmoid, the acceleration slows from the starting point to the mid point. In the historical price series, the slowing is not yet noticeable.

My chart employs a hand-fit logistic curve that passes though the beginning and ending points of the historical price series that was convenient for me to use. My analysis neglects, or rather smooths out, technically relevant highs and lows that characterize the tradingview chart. Also my price history is more recent.

The logistic analysis was mainly to figure out the circumstances that will end the exponential growth of bitcoin prices. I do not believe those results are any better than conventional technical analysis of where prices might be next year.

What is very interesting about the tradingview chart, and its "Mother of all triangles", is the technical prediction it makes about the current bubble. It looks like we are approaching the upper resistance line of the triangle at about $550, using MtGox prices.

[AnonyMint]

$2500 or $4000 or $6000. Does it really matter? Nothing else will give you those gains with such certainty.

So really this discussion is not about fulfilling some investment decision, rather is about counting our future money and salivating over it?

I guess the reason I react this way, is I originally followed Jason Hommel into silver and his calculations of how silver would go to astronomical prices. I never believed those ridiculous calculations, but I did waste some years of my life on technical analysis. With Bitcoin, there isn't even much risk of a sustained decline near-term. So you should be able to just forget about for a year or so, and go do something else more productive with your life.

So I guess I regret what I did with my life from 2006 to 2011 or so. What a waste of talent.

Taking some time away from watching the price might give some time to reflect on the big picture. When we keep ourselves busy with some compulsive activity, we tend to become consumed by it, e.g. my posting on this bitcointalk forum!

[RationalSpeculator]

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..



red - assume a $5,000,000 maximum bitcoin price when fully adopted by financial speculators
orange - $1,000,000
green - $100,000
blue - $40,000

I also re-fit each case to more accurately pass through the final price history data point. It is clear now that the exponential portion of the logistic curve, i.e. the straight line on the log chart, does not predict the maximum price. Here are the corresponding price targets summarized ...



The key result of this analysis is that we should not expect the current exponential growth of bitcoin prices to last more than 36-48 months - even under the most bullish imaginable scenario. Buy sooner rather than later is my obvious conclusion.

The shared spreadsheet containing commentary, calculations and charts can be viewed, or copy/edited, at ...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc

Hey SlipperySlope,

Great to see you back. Immediately again great analyses. Thanks so much for sharing again.


I have also sold too many coins and was taken by surprise with this new relaunch into new highs.

I thought your rational evaluation at the time indicating lower prices was sound.

What was wrong with the line you drew at the time you think?

Also, I agree we can expect an s-curve, but I don't see the first curve on your chart above. The period where growth is increasing year over year. What period do you think that was?

[RAJSALLIN]

$2500 or $4000 or $6000. Does it really matter? Nothing else will give you those gains with such certainty.

So really this discussion is not about fulfilling some investment decision, rather is about counting our future money and salivating over it?

I guess the reason I react this way, is I originally followed Jason Hommel into silver and his calculations of how silver would go to astronomical prices. I never believed those ridiculous calculations, but I did waste some years of my life on technical analysis. With Bitcoin, there isn't even much risk of a sustained decline near-term. So you should be able to just forget about for a year or so, and go do something else more productive with your life.

So I guess I regret what I did with my life from 2006 to 2011 or so. What a waste of talent.

Taking some time away from watching the price might give some time to reflect on the big picture. When we keep ourselves busy with some compulsive activity, we tend to become consumed by it, e.g. my posting on this bitcointalk forum!

Very good post. I think a lot of  us need a kick in the but to stop waisting our precious time. Point taken.

[SlipperySlope]

Hey SlipperySlope,
Great to see you back. Immediately again great analyses. Thanks so much for sharing again.

I have also sold too many coins and was taken by surprise with this new relaunch into new highs.

I thought your rational evaluation at the time indicating lower prices was sound.

What was wrong with the line you drew at the time you think?

Also, I agree we can expect an s-curve, but I don't see the first curve on your chart above. The period where growth is increasing year over year. What period do you think that was?

First, thanks for the welcome. I am drawn to this forum, like a moth to a lighted window, whenever there is a bitcoin bubble. I am through with trading and just buying. Plus I have an affection for Risto viewpoints.

Regarding the trendline connecting the bottoms of the previous two bubbles, I think now that 2012 was a period of consolidation, where the uncertainty of bitcoin held back speculation - that was released in January-April 2013. It now appears that 2012 was not the trend, rather it was below the trend.

In accordance with the conventional wisdom that bitcoin prices will be marked by a series of bubbles before settling down as a mature financial instrument, I believe that this bubble and future bubbles will have the form of damped oscillations rather than the classically symmetrical financial bubble pattern exhibited by the June 2011 peak.

Can you restate your issue about the S-curve? I plotted it log 10 so the exponential part is linear on the chart.

[BitchicksHusband]

$2500 or $4000 or $6000. Does it really matter?

It matters to my tax and retirement planning.  And also just to satisfy my curiosity, since it is interesting that the sigmoid logarithmic predictions have been frighteningly accurate so far despite being seen as insane to practically everyone outside the forum and half the people on it.

[Gordon_Freeman]

"UPDATE: dree's datapoints used, which will change the trendline slightly: y = 0,092x - 2,9124. R² = 0,91466. This is not yet updated in the charts, however (difference hardly noticeable). NOTE: x=1, when in Jan2009 (previously x=0)

Trendline target for November 2013: $328
Trendline target for December 2013: $404"

Since we're halfway through November, and way above $328, this means it is not advised to buy right now?

[SlipperySlope]

. . . it is interesting that the sigmoid logarithmic predictions have been frighteningly accurate so far despite being seen as insane to practically everyone outside the forum and half the people on it.

Back in 2011, there was great discussion in this forum about maximum bitcoin value. Once you wrap your mind around the notion that bitcoin could disrupt precious metals as a store of value, and disrupt fiat currency, i.e. M2 monetary base as a payment mechanism, then you begin to accept that $1,000,000 per bitcoin is a candidate ultimate value for the virtual crypocurrency.

But given a wildly high maximum price - such as $1,000,000 per bitcoin, then how do we get there? ... well by exponential growth. It was one thing to watch bitcoin go from $1 to $30 back in 2011 but quite another to watch it go from $65 to over $400 in the last few months. The larger absolute numbers, as well as the impact on our unrealized profit - are staggering.

[rpietila]

This is absolutely a Trojan designed to sucker all you naive selfish people into mixing your capital with drug dealers, human traffickers, pedophiles, etc and to track you and label you as destroyers of the global economy.

This is so they can blame the socialism debt bubble on you.

Rothschild and Soros are some clever fucks. And you eat it right from their hand.

I think you suffer from overly negative worldview. If you only take into account the negative testimony of how fucked the USA is, how fucked EU is, how fucked China, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil, etc. are, and not any of the positive developments, you end up depressed and unable to work or enjoy life. As if it was Satan who created the world and decides what happens in people's lives (hint: it is God instead).

Rothschilds' control is not a static iron grip over all the countries in the world and every one of their elected governments. It fluctuates and they suffer setbacks in their pursuits as well as we do in ours. Where they have done well is general "education" which has made people in general quite crooked in basic understanding (the majority of people in Finland love big brother, otherwise they would not vote for it, so the politicians will make crooked decisions based on their crooked understanding, even when there is no direct command).

But they do not currently have the resources to globally effect "killing the 350,000 largest bitcoin holders or taxing them over 100% of their holdings which cleverly puts them in tax debt prison because the sums involved are so huge". That is so fantastic that I will rather help my friends to make millions, and put them in good use, and then wait for the blacklist to be issued.

If you refuse to buy bitcoins despite the fact that the FBI claims they are legal, just based on your theory that they are a trap and will be used to mark you for slaughter - my friend, then "they" have already overcome, making your life miserable and depriving from you the fruit of speculation. And if there is Cambodia style purge, you will not be spared anyway.

**

I actually think this is on topic. To make any use of the trend, it is highly important to know when it is expected to change. I still believe that simple exponential line is adequate to model the trend of the exchange rate, and that there will be a huge bubble in the end, followed by oscillating crash á la SlipperySlope. Smaller booms and retracements may be traded according to whether they are above or below trendline.

Currently we are slightly above the trendline.

[AnonyMint]

I thought I was done in this thread, but I do need to respond to the thread owner my friend Risto...

This is absolutely a Trojan designed to sucker all you naive selfish people into mixing your capital with drug dealers, human traffickers, pedophiles, etc and to track you and label you as destroyers of the global economy.

This is so they can blame the socialism debt bubble on you.

Rothschild and Soros are some clever fucks. And you eat it right from their hand.

I think you suffer from overly negative worldview. If you only take into account the negative testimony of how fucked the USA is, how fucked EU is, how fucked China, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil, etc. are, and not any of the positive developments, you end up depressed and unable to work or enjoy life. As if it was Satan who created the world and decides what happens in people's lives (hint: it is God instead).

Well I like facts, not fiction.

The positive is that for example China has huge pent-up prosperity just waiting to burst upon the world, once the cronies release the masses from their FX controls and the imbalances that has created. You can read mpettis.com to understand the nature of these structural imbalances well. Ditto India, and most of the developing world.

So I actually have a very positive outlook. But to get there, requires making the right decisions. When the flood is rising and God sends you a boat and you say, "no thanks, I trust God to save me", then he sends you a helicopter and you repeat, "no thanks, I trust God to save me".

So then who can you blame if God sent me to warn you?

I wouldn't be posting here and planning to do something if I didn't think we can win. I only play a strong hand, otherwise I don't play.

Rothschilds' control is not a static iron grip over all the countries in the world and every one of their elected governments. It fluctuates and they suffer setbacks in their pursuits as well as we do in ours.

True but imo misses the point. Overall their control is always increasing (on trend), because the trend of humans relying less on themselves or their local tribe and relying more on the central government is increasing.

Rothschilds et al profits from the fundamental game theory of big government (and I see you've seen my point at link below):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=323988.msg3583722#msg3583722

Where they have done well is general "education" which has made people in general quite crooked in basic understanding (the majority of people in Finland love big brother, otherwise they would not vote for it, so the politicians will make crooked decisions based on their crooked understanding, even when there is no direct command).

This is expected by the game theory. History demonstrates it to be true over and over.

The difference now is they have technology that is so invasive of our privacy. We even need to remember to remove the battery from our mobile lest they turn it on remotely and track everything.

But they do not currently have the resources to globally effect "killing the 350,000 largest bitcoin holders or taxing them over 100% of their holdings which cleverly puts them in tax debt prison because the sums involved are so huge". That is so fantastic that I will rather help my friends to make millions, and put them in good use, and then wait for the blacklist to be issued.

They have more abundant resources than they need when you propose to make 7 billion people destitute with 1/2 of world's wealth going to Bitcoins created in the first 4 years. How many people does it take to kill each Bitcoiner? And they won't kill you, rather my hypothesis is they will enact laws that redistribute your wealth back to the system. They will spread the idea in the media that we must take it all back from the speculators, i.e. "tax the rich", "operation wallstreet oppose the top 1%", "we are the 99%". Did you forget recent riots and events. And of course who will take most of the wealth the government confiscates from the Bitcoiner? (not the people, the people only get debt, toxic healthcare, etc)

Many of you will become corrupted to save your ass, you will agree to join their system to avoid prosecution. This is how they laugh at the silly goldbugs.

If you refuse to buy bitcoins despite the fact that the FBI claims they are legal, just based on your theory that they are a trap

That is not codified in law. FBI did not rule on tax issues.

Attorneys speak from both sides of their mouth. Always look for the loophole.

and will be used to mark you for slaughter - my friend,

I never postulated slaughter of Bitcoiners. I wrote prison, or at least destitute and a lifelong debt to the government (which might feel almost like a prison especially if they restrict your travel such as no passport as US Senator Feinstein has proposed until you can pay). Yes it is just a theory. I could be wrong. Feinstein is head of the Congressional committee that oversees the NSA.

The megadeath I am referring to is what socialism does periodically to the masses and how that will happen this time is always unpredictable.

then "they" have already overcome, making your life miserable and depriving from you the fruit of speculation. And if there is Cambodia style purge, you will not be spared anyway.

Rather I will attempt to play the game in a much smarter way. They have attuned my senses to my strengths. Following the herd was never one of my strengths. I was always early. This time I am early again, even though it looks for the moment I am late.

As I said upthread, I don't blame Bitcoiners, since there is no viable alternative. That needs to be rectified.

I actually think this is on topic. To make any use of the trend, it is highly important to know when it is expected to change. I still believe that simple exponential line is adequate to model the trend of the exchange rate, and that there will be a huge bubble in the end, followed by oscillating crash á la SlipperySlope. Smaller booms and retracements may be traded according to whether they are above or below trendline.

Agreed. Remember the exponential curve (which looks linear on the log axis) is a huge bubble at the end. It can even be decelerating and still look like an increase on the non-log chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CSCO&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Currently we are slightly above the trendline.

Good for those who want to play the wiggles.

But in the end, the big picture choices matter and the wiggles don't.

[piramida]

When the flood is rising and God sends you a boat and you say, "no thanks, I trust God to save me", then he sends you a helicopter and you repeat, "no thanks, I trust God to save me".

A very good analogy! People rejecting bitcoin now remind me of that. Everybody is given a way out of the upcoming financial devastation, but most people stubbornly reject it as a false gift from the god of the machine. But this one is actually here to help You just need a little bit of faith, that's all.

[AnonyMint]

$2500 or $4000 or $6000. Does it really matter?

It matters to my tax and retirement planning.  And also just to satisfy my curiosity, since it is interesting that the sigmoid logarithmic predictions have been frighteningly accurate so far despite being seen as insane to practically everyone outside the forum and half the people on it.

Why would anyone see exponential growth of prices in speculation bubbles as abnormal? They are the norm. Look at Cisco and Microsoft stock price history.

What is abnormal is to expect prices to rise from fractions of a penny to $1,000,000. Also the rate of doubling with Bitcoin may be abnormal(i.e. the exponent in the rate of price growth), but I didn't verify by comparing it against for example the Cisco and Microsoft cases. Perhaps the rate of doubling is what causes people to say Bitcoin is in a bubble when in fact it is just on trendline as all bubbles do. Bubbles crash when their nominal rate of increase becomes unsustainable, that is why I say not to worry about a bubble top until BTC reaches $trillion(s) or thereabouts.

And that $1,000,000 outcome is not yet assured. It would be highly abnormal if it is reached. I can think of no example in history except perhaps the Tulip Mania (did it reach that range of extremes?).

Variable and short-term analysis seems to me to be the antithesis of sound and rational tax and retirement planning, but heck what do I know since I haven't even begun my planning for retirement.

[AnonyMint]

When the flood is rising and God sends you a boat and you say, "no thanks, I trust God to save me", then he sends you a helicopter and you repeat, "no thanks, I trust God to save me".

A very good analogy! People rejecting bitcoin now remind me of that. Everybody is given a way out of the upcoming financial devastation, but most people stubbornly reject it as a false gift from the god of the machine. But this one is actually here to help You just need a little bit of faith, that's all.

I figured someone would turn my own logic on that one against my argument.

Agreed while there is no viable alternative, then for the little guy it is better to buy Bitcoin than do nothing. My theory of concern applies more the large net worth investors (I actually stated that but it got buried in the discussion).

I don't want the hassle of taking a small position in BTC and then be subject to tax audit later because of it, it would just slow me down (especially that would force me back to USA which I haven't visited since 2006). If don't feel safe to buy in large size, then I am wasting my time.

[NewLiberty]

When the flood is rising and God sends you a boat and you say, "no thanks, I trust God to save me", then he sends you a helicopter and you repeat, "no thanks, I trust God to save me".

A very good analogy! People rejecting bitcoin now remind me of that. Everybody is given a way out of the upcoming financial devastation, but most people stubbornly reject it as a false gift from the god of the machine. But this one is actually here to help You just need a little bit of faith, that's all.

I figured someone would turn my own logic on that one against my argument.

Agreed while there is no viable alternative, then for the little guy it is better to buy Bitcoin than do nothing. My theory of concern applies more the large net worth investors (I actually stated that but it got buried in the discussion).

I don't want the hassle of taking a small position in BTC and then be subject to tax audit later because of it, it would just slow me down (especially that would force me back to USA which I haven't visited since 2006). If don't feel safe to buy in large size, then I am wasting my time.

I like where you are going with this.  Please keep us informed, especially if there are holes to fill.

[Bitventurer]

Bookmarked this thread, very interesting indeed.

[Lollaskates]

Have people thought of the risk of moving BTC through exchanges when they are 1,000,000 or even hundrends of thousands a piece?

What's stopping an exchange from amassing hundreds of millions and just closing down. We have no reprocussions yet. Right now the price is so low (but getting there) that with the volume, they'll be moving sooooo much more money in the future.

[ErisDiscordia]

Hey AnonyMint!

Thank you for your intriguing perspective on current events. I have been reading some of your posts spread out across several threads and I feel like I still don't exactly understand what you are talking about. This could be, because you are talking about lots of things   

It seems to be that there are conspiracy theories involved - I love conspiracy theories. I don't mean this in a derogatory sort of way as in "I like to feel intellectually superior while making fun of conspiracy theorists." I consider myself a disciple of Robert Anton Wilsons thinking on conspiracy theories - that they are in his words "normal mammalian politics" and to deny their existence, or regard any of them as 100% true or 100% false is to engage in sloppy thinking.

I would like to see a thread summarizing the structure of the conspiracy you're trying to discuss. If your goal is to spread your idea(s) and get feedback, I feel that would be the way to go.

Here's what I understand from your posts so far:

(please correct me if I got anything mixed up)

- Bitcoin is a conspiracy by central bankers.
- The goal of the conspiracy is greater control over the monetary system.
- The goal is to be achieved by releasing Bitcoin into a cultural narrative based on the idea of Hegelian Thesis-Antithesis - where they control both the Thesis (current monetary system) and Antithesis (Bitcoin - a proposed alternative monetary system). This narrative is expected to produce huge amounts of concentrated wealth in the ranks of early adopters. With technological unemployment rendering ever larger portions of the population destitute, the bankers can then embark on a public witch-hunt campaign backed by popular opinion to steal said wealth.
- I am not sure whether you are suggesting that the central bankers have a way of tracking and/or stealing from Bitcoin users at whim?
- A potential solution sidestepping this scheme would be development of a truly anonymous alt-coin, which would allow the "smart capital" of people with a vision how to rebuild an economy to hide, while triggering a fast collapse of the old economy.
- You are working on the protocol to such an alt-coin?
- All of this involves (your old friend?) rpietila proposing socialist solutions, while you are talking about free-market solutions? I'm not sure I can detect any socialist leanings in rpietila.

Hope you can clarify these things. I have seen rpietila state before that your scenario is plausible and therefore worth investigating. I agree. We don't know the origin of the Bitcoin protocol so investigating any entity with the means and motivation to create the protocol seems therefore worthwhile. Also it's fun! Even though investigating your vision does feel like being a detective in a dark noir story about a desperate future 

[piramida]

How does one buy Bitcoin in size with the lowest spread, fees, hassle and risk if anonymity is not the objective? And how do I do this while residing in a third world country where I can't prove residence

try third-world country exchanges, like btc-e.com, wire funds to the exchange, buy coins, done (you can travel there and open a local bank account, but that would be needed only if you want to withdraw). should not really be hard or expensive (I'd estimate a 2-3% overhead on conversion and transactions).

[AnonyMint]

Occam's razor is a fuzzy heuristic not a perfect truth, yet some of his summary is not what I think (and seems too complex to me also to be possible) and some of his summary is only what I conjectured not what I stated as fact. For example, I never postulated that Bitcoin was created by inept lower ranks of the elite such as central banks, as that would be too unlikely to organize and I conjecture Bitcoin was instead created with one of many results being destruction of the nation-state central banks (since the goal is to replace them with one-world central bank!)

One thing we can conclude factually beyond any doubt is that coin rewards decline asymptotically to <1% by 2033 and <0.2% by 2040 and so on. And that FACT allows a game theory that can not be denied as follows.

After 2033 (<1%) and 2040 (<0.2%), then coin rewards for Bitcoin diminish asymptotically towards 0. Thus there is no funding for miners, if a cartel of miners does the well-known "transactions withholding attack".

In other words, Amazon.com supplies a downloadable or online client (that merchants all over the web adopt because Amazon pays them to) and Amazon might even juice up the offer with 0% tx fees (to entice more transactions to them), then they do not forward these transactions to other independent miners who are not part of their cartel. Thus those other miners do not get sufficient funding to pay their electricity and hardware amortization costs.

This is just one way that Bitcoin can be taken over by cartels. And actually Satoshi wrote about this and thought this was fine. And the core devs know this too and think it is fine.

There a new attack released this month. Read that linked post, I am not against Bitcoin, I may even buy some.

So once Bitcoin is in the hands of cartels, then the government can regulate the cartels. So then they can easily change the protocol to anything they want.

If you believe in the theory that network effects are insurmountable, then it would be too late at that time to launch an altcoin (or fork Bitcoin) to compete.

Until someone presents another game theory that shows how cartels won't do what they always do when a power vacuum opportunity is presented to them, then I conclude these are facts and the deniers are deluding themselves.

I think I have differentiated in my writing between my conjecture and facts. The above appears to be a fact.

It isn't amazing when readers confuse facts and fiction and then attribute only the fiction to the writer. That is the nature of public discourse in forums. Sound bites and groupthink work well. Whereas the exchange of critical thinking gets muddled across the wire. Sorry I don't have the time to get the communication perfect. I would rather write software code, since my past experience is my software speaks much louder in the market place than my forum discussions.