Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

[rpietila]

using today's values based on OP's formula the bit coin price should be:


10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days)) =

$26,439

The coefficients -2.8698 and 0.003012 are dynamic and recalculated daily from past price data.

So it's more like $5,000 now - which still IS somewhat higher than the actual price 

[1714866248]

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[1714866248]

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[1714866248]

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[wicks]

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

[Diabolicus]

using today's values based on OP's formula the bit coin price should be:


10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days)) =

$26,439

The coefficients -2.8698 and 0.003012 are dynamic and recalculated daily from past price data.

So it's more like $5,000 now - which still IS somewhat higher than the actual price 

Hi, I'm struggling to reproduce / update these coefficients based on current data - can you please point me to an example / excel spreadsheet with formulas? Or is it an iterative approach?
Thanks.

[greenlion]

Hi, I'm struggling to reproduce / update these coefficients based on current data - can you please point me to an example / excel spreadsheet with formulas? Or is it an iterative approach?
Thanks.

Put the values into a spreadsheet as Date,Price

You're going to want to normalize your dates per rpietila's convention, where date is number of days since 2009-01-03. In Excel you can accomplish this by taking your column of dates, subtracting the function date(2009,01,03), and showing as numbers.

You're going to want to add a column that is the log base 10 of price. ( =log10() )

Do a least squares on [log base 10 of price] as a function of [number of days since 2009-01-03]. This is a built-in function in the Excel graphing features (there is an option to show you the exact function in y=mx+b form overlaid on the chart itself).

That linear function will now output the log of price.

You can calculate the linear model price by adding a column that's =10^(your least squares function). You could literally create a column where you start "=10^(" and paste in your least squares function, and replace the variable with a cell reference.

[Bugsbey]

NEW:


Trendline update, including analysis in my latest post.

Calculate today's trendline price HERE


https://i.imgur.com/zQTRX1i.png

R source: http://pastebin.com/peG2wg5p.
[chart courtesy to tonico/minimalB]

This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Jan	.005	.005	.39	6.11	16.31	818
Feb	.005	.005	.90	5.06	25.93	659
Mar	.005	.005	.85	4.88	58.14	594
Apr	.005	.005	1.50	4.98	115.09	461
May	.005	.005	6.38	5.06	112.81	486
Jun	.005	.008	18.55	6.03	108.39
Jul	.005	.060	14.10	8.04	83.80
Aug	.005	.065	9.75	10.88	105.80
Sep	.005	.062	5.76	11.46	124.33
Oct	.005	.106	3.30	11.58	156.50
Nov	.005	.27	2.60	11.51	517.00
Dec	.005	.24	3.51	13.33	799.00

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.
6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox.
7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.
6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.

It really just shows that bitcoin is really gaining popularity as time goes by. How much more today? In my observation there are lots of new investors. And there are more coming for sure. I am optimistic that it will be more to be known worldwide.

[Dne work]

Bitcoin may not necessarily have a traditional single S-curve hockey stick, because there are a number of completely different markets it competes for that could achieve critical mass over completely independent timeframes.

I will only try to explain to you that the logistics model does not apply to the market of speculation, but applies to the adoption of bona fide technology (eg radio adoption, TV, car, cell phone, etc. Instead of speculative markets, an exponential price followed by the fall of the waterfall.
 The exponential increase in the market of speculation always has a waterfall collision. Can you find a counter example? For example, look at the history of Cisco and Microsoft stock prices. There is something that everyone should use on the internet, the router, but you see the exponential rise and fall of the waterfall.
 Do not configure the general crypto-currency application with speculation that Bitcoin is perfect. Because replacing the existing 100-year financial system with a new model for the community requires a lot of analysis. It's not as simple as the real benefits of TV or mobile phone. It seems that the aggregate result for Bitcoin is dystopian so it is unlikely to be stable. And as a mathematician you must apply and understand well that irrelevant models if the wrong ones are still applied.
 I do not think we'll see a waterfall collapse like in Bitcoin (at least not one that does not recover the trend) soon.

[droptableguy2]

using today's values based on OP's formula the bit coin price should be:


10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days)) =

$26,439

Formula is too good! Now I know this. Thank you for sharing I will study and apply them to this market. Great.

[rpietila]

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

I have thought of the latter statement and now have something to say on the subject:

People are different. There are things that, by nature, become used by everyone on the planet. The others don't.

Bitcoin has failed to become easy enough to use by the general population (commoners).

The planetary post-lockdown money system must be simple to use. A child must be able to use it.

[exstasie]

I have thought of the latter statement and now have something to say on the subject:

People are different. There are things that, by nature, become used by everyone on the planet. The others don't.

Bitcoin has failed to become easy enough to use by the general population (commoners).

The planetary post-lockdown money system must be simple to use. A child must be able to use it.

Ease of use is one reason Bitcoin won't become the predominant money system. Fixed supply, which results in low velocity of money, is probably a more important reason.

That doesn't mean BTC won't greatly appreciate in value. My opinion is we are still destined for 7 figures USD eventually. I also think BTC could eventually become a reserve asset, although it's very unlikely to be directly pegged to national currencies due to its fixed supply.

[zoidsoft]

Bitcoin has failed to become easy enough to use by the general population (commoners).

The planetary post-lockdown money system must be simple to use. A child must be able to use it.

AnonyMint asks us to tell you that he told you that years ago, but you weren’t able to hear. And he also says you will not be the leader of that money system as you describe in your other post:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1905349.msg54303817#msg54303817

AnonyMint also asks do you remember when you disagreed on the phone a decade ago with his belief that China was a threat?