Economic Devastation

[minor-transgression]

"I have explained that we can't exist (the past and future will collapse) if there could exist an absolute truth..."

That right-handedness is not left-handedness?

It may also prove that there is at least one other universe, but that's a different arguement ...

[OROBTC]

...

CoinCube

All comments re the universe and similar are just my best guesses based on much less than you and iamnotback have both investigated.  I have not looked at the latest in astrophysics (etc.) in, well, decades!

But, I have had my own (I'll use the right word for me) miracles happening in my own life, since I have recovered and re-connected.

* * *

Nor have I had time to read all of iamnotback's material, much less understand it.  (We'll have to ask him if we can refer to him as SHM, smile)

So, I cannot really comment well on notions of absolutes and constants...

Even from a morality standpoint <--- which would reflect my personal experience only, as I am untrained in the philosophical concepts behind morality and related.

Also, prediction (especially about the future...) is very hard.  I have not had the time nor the energy to carefully examine his (and Martin Armstrong's) predictions about items of interest to me (gold and BTC price for starters).  But, should gold NOT crash to $800 in the next months, well that will tell me something, reinforce what I have just claimed (the future being unknowable).  But should gold go down to $800 or lower, maybe I'll ask SHM if he offers subscriptions........   

[CoinCube]

You argued above that nihilism allows one to form a positive doctrine for re-evaluate of ones values and that the end of tradition that produces the possibility of new things to come. However, there is no reason to think the goals of progress and improving our value system and cannot be achieved from a framework of theism. With this in mind why choose a philosophical belief that is potentially unhealthy and detrimental to the progress we have made so far?

Metaphysics is ontology and epistemology, not morality. Biology has nothing to do with truth, sequoias live for hundreds of years and learn nothing. Anthropological arguments are the only pertinent, but I'd say we're already overpopulated given our capability for wealth distribution.

I think they will be achieved from a framework of theism, but in a slow way, that will leave behind piece by piece the spiritualism from theism, until it is reduced to the pure belief of transcendent perfection without content. That kind of theism would be compatible with nihilism and the two could coexists as mutually agnostic. The problem is that traditional theism brings spiritualism, and that spiritualism is just a more primitive type of thought, and that its bad when applied to knowledge, or morality. For example its hard to understand and artificially reconstruct the mind, if people think its an eternal substance completely separate from matter. Basically, I don't really care what anyone believes, as long as it doesn't determine knowledge, but because spiritualism practically always does, I'm against it.

Nihilnegativum I have had time to consider your argument in greater depth. My response to you is that nihilism is incompatible with your goal of advancing knowledge. The arguments to show this are extensive and complex and I do not want to post them all here so I will link to them.

The Foundations of Contentionism:
Cycles of Contention
The Rise of Knowledge
Entropy is Information
The Math of Optimal Fitness
The Limits of Science
Religion and Progress
The Nature of Freedom
Morality and Sin
Knowledge, Entropy and Freedom


This is a complex topic and I do not necessarily expect you to read all of that but I think you would find the logic interesting. In the 8 links above I (and others) describe the relationship between knowledge, freedom, entropy, and progress. Once this relationship is understood it follows that nihilism undermines the fundamental drivers of knowledge creation. Thus nihilism does not advance knowledge it destroys it.

A very brief and incomplete summary of the argument for those without the time to read the links follows: (Going from top to bottom of the above links)

The argument starts from the premise that empiric knowledge exists or at least appears to exist. It goes on to define information in the context of entropy and knowledge in the context of information. It further argues that information (degrees-of-freedom) cannot be infinite or it would not converge to become knowledge. The nature of empiric knowledge as necessarily incomplete is reviewed as is the requirement for apriori. The apriori assumption of theism is explored and its functional role as the primary driver of knowledge growth. The nature of freedom is explored and its role as the functional intermediary between theism and knowledge growth. Consequences of the rejection of theism are reviewed. Sin is discussed in the context of wrong judgment or noise. The argument concludes with observation that ethical monotheism appears to be a the minimum constraint needed to ensure convergence of information to empiric knowledge. Thus the apriori rejection of theism (nihilism) is incompatible with the growth of empiric knowledge over time.

[iamnotback]

I think all this theoretical divagation is taking our eyes off the ball.

The leftists are going to fuck up this world with another megadeath...

You should try to be less pessimistic. If we accept that top-down order (with socialism being one form) plays a role in the organization necessary to spawn new entropy, e.g. decentralizing technology. We must consider the possibility that the current global order is actually lacking in top-down control.

This idea is anathema to the anarchist and hard for us to accept as we live in a the west with our tradition of individualism and moral self-control. However, we must remember that overall freedom is a global metric. The majority of humanity still lives under governments like oligarchic China and tyrannical Saudi Arabia. Thus in the near term the system may simply be trending towards towards increased global freedom which for now requires the reigning in of the nation state.

The great push back towards individual freedoms may simply be the task of the next generations who will inherit a world where the power of the nation state has faded.

You seem to be forgetting my thesis, which is that the leftists are destroying the Industrial Age and culling themselves. It is a necessary creative destruction to usher in the Knowledge Age.

Refer to my post in the Martin Armstrong thread (and click all my links there):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17458485#msg17458485

[CoinCube]

I think all this theoretical divagation is taking our eyes off the ball.

The leftists are going to fuck up this world with another megadeath...

You should try to be less pessimistic. If we accept that top-down order (with socialism being one form) plays a role in the organization necessary to spawn new entropy, e.g. decentralizing technology. We must consider the possibility that the current global order is actually lacking in top-down control.

This idea is anathema to the anarchist and hard for us to accept as we live in a the west with our tradition of individualism and moral self-control. However, we must remember that overall freedom is a global metric. The majority of humanity still lives under governments like oligarchic China and tyrannical Saudi Arabia. Thus in the near term the system may simply be trending towards towards increased global freedom which for now requires the reigning in of the nation state.

The great push back towards individual freedoms may simply be the task of the next generations who will inherit a world where the power of the nation state has faded.

You seem to be forgetting my thesis, which is that the leftists are destroying the Industrial Age and culling themselves. It is a necessary creative destruction to usher in the Knowledge Age.

Refer to my post in the Martin Armstrong thread (and click all my links there):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17458485#msg17458485

And I countered by saying that to the degree necessary the issue will solve itself over time.

If one accepts the premise that the economy is a noosphere (a mind-based system). It follows naturally that it can revive as fast as minds and policies can change. The concept of large scale selective culling of the population or generations of Sisysphean effort become redundant. All that is needed is the free competition of ideas. It is only the bad ideas that need to be culled. The concept of the economy as a noosphere is conceptually true if your prior essay Information is Alive is true for the ideas presented are more or less synonymous.

Creative destruction need only be the destruction of bad ideas. Even if bad ideas are resilient and I acknowledge they sometimes are demographics not culling will solve the issue over time as I discussed in the Health and Religion thread. For example:

American Jewish Fertility by Religious Current

Religious Sect	Average No. of Children per Woman
Ultra-Orthodox	6.72
Modern Orthodox	3.39
Conservative	1.74
Reform	1.36
Secular	1.29

Now if your argument is that the combination of changing ideas coupled with gradual demographic shifts is creative destruction then we agree.

[iamnotback]

CoinCube, you are correct, I can't predict the mix of culling, slowly moving fertility adjustment, abrupt migration, and good ideas conquering bad ones in the free market.

It is possible of course that no wholesale culling is necessary. But even a period of adjustment can be quite unpleasant for those of us enslaved in the leftists' bad idea regime of rising taxes and other forms of Economic Totalitarianism.

Another factor is that Asia is more productive than its current level of collectivism, thus the remnants of the Industrial Age are shifting over there, e.g. China swallowed the world's mass production.

The megadeath in the West is much more likely if the West can succeed in trapping its citizens in the West with no escape routes to Asia, such as the onerous FATCA legislation (will Trump repeal it?) and Merkel's EU prison.

If the West goes to war with Russia+China, that could pave the way for a culling. Also the civil war fomenting in the USA between left vs. right.

Don't forget the coming Mini-Ice Age confirmed by scientists. Also if the magnetic poles flip, the combined effects could cause massive culling, especially if combined with a plague which is overdue.

We need to watch how the leftists gain or don't gain power as they hate on Trump. And we need to observe if Trump is really a totalitarian in sheepskin.

Also the coming elections in France and Germany.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703300.msg17462465#msg17462465
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/germanys-misreading-of-economic-history/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-eu-precedent-also-lies-in-the-athenian-empire/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-threats-to-assassinate-trump/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/turkey/turkeys-death-spiral-into-dictatorship-currency-shows-it/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/sturgeon-incompetent-to-lead-scotland/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/welcome-2017-looking-more-optimistic-than-ever/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/its-the-bankers-not-the-rich/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/an-irreversible-error-german-birth-rate-soars-first-time-in-33-years/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/merkels-refugee-nightmare/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/from-under-the-rubble-the-battle-against-the-left-for-humanity/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/when-left-meet-right/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/so-whats-all-the-protests-against-trump/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-real-story-at-new-hampshire-college/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/scandinavia-leader-in-the-war-on-cash/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/steve-mnuchin-gary-cohn/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/australia-looking-into-cancelling-100-bill/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/how-professors-are-engaging-in-undermining-the-country-in-collages/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hatred-of-the-left-continues-to-set-stage-for-revolution/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/football-in-decline/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/german-flirting-classes-for-refugees/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/trump-picks-climate-change-skeptic-for-epa/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-war-on-cash-one-giant-leap-forward-for-government/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/steins-scam/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/german-governments-plan-to-seize-all-farms-in-crisis/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/war-on-cash-taxing-cash-withdrawals/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/france/french-elections-2017/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-termination-of-cash-approaching-rapidly-the/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/new-york-times-is-in-part-responsible-for-the-violence/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-rising-civil-unrest-in-america-is-highly-dangerous-for-the-future/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hillary-tells-supporters-to-effectively-revolt-against-trump/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/britain-passes-the-snooper-charter-ending-all-privacy/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/have-the-democrats-unleashed-a-new-age-communist-revolution/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/the-color-purple-not-the-movie-but-a-movement/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/the-new-mini-ice-age-coming-rapidly/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/reuters-poll-shows-how-upset-people-are-in-usa/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/polio-like-afm-disease-infecting-children/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hillary-wages-gender-war-in-addition-to-class-and-race-wars/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/protests-against-refugees-in-germany-turning-against-politicians/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/the-coming-dark-age/

[iamnotback]

You predicted BTC to crash to less than $100 by now. You predicted XMR was a nothing coin. Care to offer your thoughts now?

I have not really been following all iamnotbacks BTC predictions but I am aware of the following predictions.

On October 14th 2014 when the price was around $374 he predicted a sustained BTC decline to $150.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=624223.msg9195517#msg9195517
It did not get there but it did decline and spiked down close to that on January 14th 2015.

Plz read that post of mine again. I did not write "sustained". I merely called for a bottom in the $150 - $200 range, which ended up being true!

Also I alluded in that post to prior public predictions I had made when it was $600 predicting it would fall to the $300s, which is did!

He also more or less predicted a rally on Nov 7th when the price was $704. That has been accurate.  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1669830.msg16769509#msg16769509

I made that prediction earlier than that on Oct. 27. Even OROBTC will confirm that I was telling him in PMs to buy BTC in the mid-$600s.

Re: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

I have blogged the OP:

https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/speculation-rule-buy-when-others-are-irrationally-pessimistic-cautious

I also wrote this:

Any one buying precious metals right now and not Bitcoin @$700 is an idiot.

[iamnotback]

He categorically predicted the complete collapse of BTC and XMR.

I have not seen him predict the complete collapse of BTC and I have read a good portion (but definitely not all) of his stuff. Do you have a link to back that up?

Here is proof coinits is lying:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg17297476#msg17297476
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1727852.msg17295418#msg17295418

I remember him arguing that BTC will eventually centralize and fall under government control way back in 2014 but even in that scenario BTC would not necessarily collapse. It would probably become some kind of official government quasi-fiat money and would probably be quite valuable.  

I have also written numerous times that the centralization of Bitcoin wouldn't necessarily lead to a price collapse.

And I was correct about the centralization. I was also correct in 2013 predicting the blocksize as the future problem and a tragedy of the commons in transaction fees (which my whitepaper will make crystal clear is insoluble for Bitcoin).

[iamnotback]

The reserve currency is a narrow phenomenon that has more to do with the dying Industrial Age (see my comments in the Economic Devastation thread for more insights).

Bitcoin is serving a purpose in this evolution but it is not the be-all or end-all of this technological transformation.

Make sure you read this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17458485#msg17458485

As you've stated, Bitcoin could become the world's reserve currency - the institutional playground.

I have never said that and have instead argued that it won't be the reserve currency. Perhaps you are confusing where I have written that Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the altcoin ecosystem.

Yes, my mistake - altcoin reserve.

Would it be possible for Bitcoin to become a global reserve currency at all? I'm assuming competitive collusion among major governments along with addition of control and tracking sufficient to enable AML/KYC for those governments.

The coming SDRs reserve currency will be a compromise by all the nations to fix the coming strong dollar vortex global collapse. That reserve currency is for the Industrial Age economy (the one built with huge fixed capital investment and huge fractional reserve banking leverage). The leftists (collectivists) are enslaving themselves in that dying, but huge albatross monolith. Gold is dying along with that physical economy. We will still have a physical economy, but it will provide no real economic growth and it will become very small in terms of profit relative to the Knowledge Age economy over the coming decades.

Bitcoin, blockchains, and altcoins are the decentralization technology of the fledgling Knowledge Age which rises to replace the dying Industrial Age, as a network effect of the decentralized Internet. Bitcoin is the reserve currency of that new nascent economy.

The economy and society are bifurcating. I predicted this years ago and have been using that term bifurcation.

[CoinCube]

Sustained increases in living conditions result only from gains in knowledge. Top-down control plays in role in the the organization needed to facilitate the emergence of new knowledge. Top-down control facilitates its own removal for new knowledge eventually circumvents and undermines the prior order allowing society to climb to higher energy systems. The new system is also one of top-down control but the knowledge gained allows for an overall relaxation of the imposed order increasing economic degrees-of-freedom.

The evolution of the social contract is a progressive climb to higher potential energy systems with increased degrees of freedom. The state of nature begat tribalism. Tribalism grew into despotism. Despotism advanced into monarchy. Monarchies were replaced by republics. It is likely that in the near future republics will be consumed by world government, and perhaps someday world government will evolve into decentralized government.

Each iteration has a common theme for each advance increases the number of individuals able to engage in cooperative activity while lowering the number of individuals able to defect. Each iteration increases the sustainable degrees of freedom the system can support.  

Cycles of Contention

		Cycle #1	Cycle #2	Cycle #3	Cycle #4	Cycle #5	Cycle #6
	Mechanism of Control	Knowledge of Evil	Warlordism	Holy War	Usury	Universal Surveillance	Hedonism
	Rulers	The Strong	Despots	God Kings/Monarchs	Capitalists	Oligarchs (NWO)	Decentralized Government
	Life of the Ruled	"Nasty, Brutish, Short"	Slaves	Surfs	Debtors	Basic Income Recipients	Knowledge Workers
	Facilitated Advance	Knowledge of Good	Commerce	Rule of Law	Growth	Transparency	Ascesis

[minor-transgression]

I really hope you are right on the transition from #cycle5 to #cycle6

The alternative is a descent into kakistocracy. There are already worrying
incidents that occur when individuals are placed above the law as happens
with globalisation. Especially when the individuals are in a position of power
eg police force attached to UN activities, or contractors with similar profiles.

The only defence against such abuses is a free press, and the wide
dissemination of knowledge. I'd guess that's where the next real world war
will be fought.

[OROBTC]

...

CoinCube

That's an interesting table showing Cycles of Contention, but (as I often mention to iamnotback), there are too many variables out there, too many "Swans", for me to find it useful in a practical way.

minor-transgression

"KAKISTOCRACY" has become one of my favorite words, but I would really fear that system of governance should it arrive.  And it DOES look like a real possibility.

[CoinCube]

...

CoinCube

That's an interesting table showing Cycles of Contention, but (as I often mention to iamnotback), there are too many variables out there, too many "Swans", for me to find it useful in a practical way.

Usefulness of course depends on accuracy and more importantly time frames.

A world of universal surveillance and basic income recipients would necessitate a very different strategy for wealth preservation than one might deploy under our current economic structure. In my opinion contingency planning for such a scenario is wise.

[iamnotback]

There is a discussion in another thread which applies to Economic Devastation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17517728#msg17517728

[iamnotback]

The alternative is a descent into kakistocracy.

This will probably occur simultaneously with the fledgling growth of the Knowledge Age in Cycle #5. And I suppose by Cycle #6, the Marxists have culled themselves and we can move forward with a mature Knowledge Age.

For a while, it will seem like the leaders have improved, i.e. Duterte in the Philippines and Trump in the USA, because the Marxists haven't gone to sleep. And Duterte is really a Marxist. The march of Marxism is incessant until it depletes all of its fuel. Marxism is not abortable.

CoinCube's basic theme seems to be correct.

[iamnotback]

A world of universal surveillance and basic income recipients would necessitate a very different strategy for wealth preservation than one might deploy under our current economic structure. In my opinion contingency planning for such a scenario is wise.

It is possible to locate one's citizenship in a tax haven, but it is not clear if global governance will be able to force wealth confiscation on even those who do such planning.

So what is not clear to me is that transparency with good planning is the best strategy, or if the best strategy is hiding wealth.

I am thinking if possible, doing both is best. In other words, in some tax jurisdictions, you don't need to declare (large) wealth. Therefor you are free to hide it and you haven't committed any crime.

And this is why I think crypto-currency is going to crucial and specifically the type of altcoin project I am working on. See the following link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17511398#msg17511398 (see also the post immediately above this linked one)

Another strategy may be to embrace the coming growth of Asia and relocate your citizenship there such as Singapore:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17517845#msg17517845

The door is closing for Westerners to gain citizenship in Asia. You would need very high qualifications and move fast.

Thoughts?

there are too many variables out there, too many "Swans", for me to find it useful in a practical way.

Then all planning is useless.

Of course it is nonsense that we are entirely incapable of understanding human transformation and doing some planning.

Just throwing your hands in the air and saying everything is random is not at all in touch with reality. This is what pushes you back to gold, because you only trust the past. If everything was entirely random, then we couldn't even be sure if we can breathe if we open the door. The reason we have great confidence that there is oxygen in the next room is because it is a very low entropy result to maintain a vacuum.

By understanding entropy, we can indeed understand the progression of society. CoinCube's model is all about transitions to higher levels of entropy (not energy unless perhaps he is thinking of potential energy and its relationship to degrees-of-freedom) and the contention between top-down order and bottom-up disorder that facilitates it.

Unlike Anonymint, I do not believe we live in a deterministic universe.

Readers please note that r0ach continues to write lies both about my and Armstrong's stances.

I even explained to him upthread how the universe remains unbounded in entropy (and thus not deterministic), yet cycles can be still be valid. A cycle doesn't tell you every damn little detail.

The sun rises every day, but that doesn't mean the bugs wake up or visit the same flower every sunrise.

It is really annoying the various crap that writers do on these forums by insinuating or attributing positions to others which are not their positions. It is not professional behavior.

[CoinCube]

My only quibbles (or clarifications) is that some aspects of the old order may waterfall collapse, so in that sense it may feel like a collapse to some sectors, e.g. as we discussed in the Economic Devastation thread that some jobs may be entirely eliminated by automation.

Also what reasoning do you apply to put Hedonism in Cycle #6 and not #5?

Seems to me the hedonism will head for a peak as the Marxist crap heads for a peak in Cycle #5 because it is the Marxist crap that finances wide-scale hedonism.

...

Hedonism as a mechanism of mass control is not yet ready for prime time. Much like most of us are not yet ready to be knowledge workers. Both of these are coming but not quite yet. The links below highlight some of my thinking on the upcoming power of hedonism.

At war with World of Warcraft: an addict tells his story
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/aug/29/world-of-warcraft-video-game-addict

At the height of his addiction Ryan van Cleave had little time for his real life. World of Warcraft, a video game, had crowded out everything: his wife and children, his job as a university English professor.

Living inside World of Warcraft (WoW) seemed preferable to the drudgery of everyday life... "Playing WoW makes me feel godlike," Van Cleave wrote. "I have ultimate control and can do what I want with few real repercussions. The real world makes me feel impotent

Kids turn violent as parents battle ‘digital heroin’ addiction
http://nypost.com/2016/12/17/kids-turn-violent-as-parents-battle-digital-heroin-addiction/

“He would refuse to do anything unless I would let him play his game,” she said. Barbara, who had discarded her TV 25 years ago, made the mistake of using the game as a bargaining tool.

When she tried to take his computer away, he attacked her “with a dazed look on his face — his eyes were not his.” She called the police. Shocked, they asked if the 9-year-old was on drugs.

Virtual reality is coming to sex, sports and Facebook
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/03/27/virtual-reality-oculus-rift-facebook-vr-will-be-everywhere/70547882/

VR now is poised not only to challenge reality's stranglehold on the way we engage with life, but possibly even eclipse it for sheer thrills.

Gaming. Concerts. Family reunions. Sporting events. Even sex – all of it will be experienced in a hyper-real fashion and with a commonness that technologists predict will rival our incessant smartphone use today.

“'VR has been around for decades, but it will stick this time.'” - Todd Richmond, USC

Then there is the whole robot 'girlfriend' thing
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/first-interactive-robot-girlfriend-china-7800073

China has unveiled its first interactive robot - which can chat away to humans and even take orders from iCloud.

When the researcher says "hello" to the robot, she replies: "Yes, my lord, what can I do for you."
When asked to "please wave your hand" she does just that, much to the astonishment of those watching.
Her developers say she is programmed to match human facial expressions, body and mouth movements.

Hedonism will probably be the primary mechanism of social control but not quite yet its time is coming.  
The surveillance state by contrast is more or less ready to take off now.

First comes Orwell then Huxley.

So what is not clear to me is that transparency with good planning is the best strategy, or if the best strategy is hiding wealth.

Thoughts?

I honestly do not think hiding will be possible on a large scale so I would go with good planning.

[iamnotback]

OROBTC, apologies if my words were a bit harsh. I was suffering a very bad GI infection.

But I don't want to back off of my point which is you always fall back to "nothing can be predicted, thus the safest is to buy gold".

I know your point is that gold has proven itself for centuries. Actually that is even incorrect (although the case against gold is stronger now). There are many hordes buried in the ground because it was of course very unsafe even in the Dark Ages to have a large amount of gold if you did not have castle, an army, etc.. It isn't as simple as it seems (buy gold as a small entity and you will be safe from the government). Armstrong has stated that gold is only useful for about 2 - 3 year crisis of governance, after that food becomes money. Monetary systems need stability in order to function. The reason civilization has risen up from total chaos of the jungle is the stability of social organization which provides for all the great advances in productivity.

I think if you spent some time here in the poor areas of Mindanao, you might appreciate more human nature under financial stress. I remember when my American friend's daughter was decapitated in a roadside accident in Mindanao and when he texted me (he was the only one to survive as he was in the back of van behind the last front facing row of seats) and I followed in a motorcycle I reached the van along the side of the road and the locals were already dismantling it to steal the battery, etc, while the brain was still lying there in the highway and had been rolled over by trucks and spread out all over.

The Philippines is a dangerous place. I am happy my son will be leaving here to go back to USA in May.

[iamnotback]

So what is not clear to me is that transparency with good planning is the best strategy, or if the best strategy is hiding wealth.

Thoughts?

I honestly do not think hiding will be possible on a large scale so I would go with good planning.

You elided this important clarification:

I am thinking if possible, doing both is best. In other words, in some tax jurisdictions, you don't need to declare (large) wealth. Therefor you are free to hide it and you haven't committed any crime.

And this is why I think crypto-currency is going to crucial and specifically the type of altcoin project I am working on. See the following link:

Wouldn't good planning also incorporate not letting governments and others know how much wealth you have when there is no legal obligation to let them know?

If society goes feral, then it will be those who have resources that they didn't trap which can fight back. Legality won't be the concern, rather survival. Of course if society doesn't enter that MadMax scenario, then legality is the more sane approach. So why not both preparations as I explained above?

Trying to leverage a well functioning, sane society is of course the most sane, but which society qualifies?

Singapore is interesting with no capital gains tax (i.e. holding crypto-currency long-term) and income taxes at 20% or below (which is the Laffer or Hauser level):

https://www.singaporecompanyincorporation.sg/how-to/taxation/everything-you-need-to-know-about-taxation-in-singapore/

But Singapore citizenship is simply out of reach of most everyone:

http://nomadcapitalist.com/2015/07/31/how-to-get-singapore-citizenship-pr/

Singapore is a socialist country though. The population is small and the growth of Asia should counteract it though. So it is a coveted citizenship.

The West is headed into Marxist chaos. Trump represents the coming separatism between religious conservatives and leftists, but the problem is that every major city is leftist, so it can't just break into contiguous regions. I see instability and inability to do tax planning. Trump will lower taxes, then the leftists will regain power (Bernie would have won) and raise taxes (and wealth confiscation!) again.

The leftists in the USA (and they are the majority) are vicious and venomous. I don't see a good future in the USA because the USA taxes all foreign income and capital gains for all citizens (other than the $100,000 foreign earned income tax exclusion).

The other problem is that leftists are insane. They can do ex post facto shit and retroactively increase tax past years or otherwise confiscate wealth. Being a USA citizen is very dangerous if you have wealth to protect. Trump will turn this around temporarily, but i am not confident this will stick, because again the leftists are the majority and they are increasing their numbers all the time via immigration and they are insane.

I haven't been to the USA since 2006 so perhaps I am not in touch with the reality on the ground, but it seems to me the USA only needs another really strong financial crisis to lurch it very abruptly to even more overt Marxism than Obama. Have you listened to Bernie Sanders? He is a Marxist lunatic and the Americans were in love with him.

So that is why I say it is very difficult to plan in such a way that you should not also LEGALLY hide wealth. If we are talking about most people who can't change their citizenship, then they need the crypto-currency option I referred to.

[iamnotback]

Also what reasoning do you apply to put Hedonism in Cycle #6 and not #5?

Seems to me the hedonism will head for a peak as the Marxist crap heads for a peak in Cycle #5 because it is the Marxist crap that finances wide-scale hedonism.

Hedonism as a mechanism of mass control is not yet ready for prime time. Much like most of us are not yet ready to be knowledge workers. Both of these are coming but not quite yet. The links below highlight some of my thinking on the upcoming power of hedonism.

At war with World of Warcraft: an addict tells his story
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/aug/29/world-of-warcraft-video-game-addict

At the height of his addiction Ryan van Cleave had little time for his real life. World of Warcraft, a video game, had crowded out everything: his wife and children, his job as a university English professor.

Living inside World of Warcraft (WoW) seemed preferable to the drudgery of everyday life... "Playing WoW makes me feel godlike," Van Cleave wrote. "I have ultimate control and can do what I want with few real repercussions. The real world makes me feel impotent

Kids turn violent as parents battle ‘digital heroin’ addiction
http://nypost.com/2016/12/17/kids-turn-violent-as-parents-battle-digital-heroin-addiction/

“He would refuse to do anything unless I would let him play his game,” she said. Barbara, who had discarded her TV 25 years ago, made the mistake of using the game as a bargaining tool.

When she tried to take his computer away, he attacked her “with a dazed look on his face — his eyes were not his.” She called the police. Shocked, they asked if the 9-year-old was on drugs.

Virtual reality is coming to sex, sports and Facebook
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/03/27/virtual-reality-oculus-rift-facebook-vr-will-be-everywhere/70547882/

VR now is poised not only to challenge reality's stranglehold on the way we engage with life, but possibly even eclipse it for sheer thrills.

Gaming. Concerts. Family reunions. Sporting events. Even sex – all of it will be experienced in a hyper-real fashion and with a commonness that technologists predict will rival our incessant smartphone use today.

“'VR has been around for decades, but it will stick this time.'” - Todd Richmond, USC

Then there is the whole robot 'girlfriend' thing
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/first-interactive-robot-girlfriend-china-7800073

China has unveiled its first interactive robot - which can chat away to humans and even take orders from iCloud.

When the researcher says "hello" to the robot, she replies: "Yes, my lord, what can I do for you."
When asked to "please wave your hand" she does just that, much to the astonishment of those watching.
Her developers say she is programmed to match human facial expressions, body and mouth movements.

Hedonism will probably be the primary mechanism of social control but not quite yet its time is coming.  
The surveillance state by contrast is more or less ready to take off now.

First comes Orwell [surveillance state] then Huxley [the blue pill].

Ah I see you are employing the definition of hedonism to a wider scope than I was contemplating. I of course already concurred with the blue pill future:

https://steemit.com/society/@anonymint/the-red-pill-blue-pill-election-nyc-slumlord-vs-globalists

I was thinking of the peaking of sexual liberalism which seems to me is financed by socialism so I was thinking that as socialism peaked, sexual liberalism (e.g. feminism, rampant birth control, etc) would lose its financial support:



Are you sure that such control is that far into the future? Had you not heard on the recent Pokemon Go phenomenon?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693814/Chaos-Central-Park-gamers-leap-cars-leave-engines-running-catch-rare-POKEMON.html

Internet addiction is another drug escape, and potentially capable of creating much more controllable zombies:

http://www.techaddiction.ca/internet_addiction_statistics.html
http://www.techaddiction.ca/video_game_addiction_statistics.html

Is there anything anyone could actually do about this for their family strategy? I know you have contemplated religion as a strategy, but this is just another top-down control mechanism. Afaics isn't any more sustainable (isn't moving us to higher entropy and degrees-of-freedom) than any other top-down control mechanism.

For example, when my gf chooses to eat junk and destroy her health, should I impose my will on her? I am then enslaving her free will.