La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2024/25

[coinlocket$]

Just leaving here the XG for this part of the Liga.

Football is a fun game



https://understat.com/league/La_liga

Luckiest team: Barca

Unluckiest teams: Atletico and Villareal

[casperBGD]

Obviously for making more profits they let Atletico play with Barcelona and Real with Valencia. Not even a Madrid derby here.

The teams are first 3 teams from the league last season and cup winner.

if I remembered correctly it was first four from the last season, since they are all in Champions league, and I am Valencia fan, so remember the journey from the middle of the table to CL at the end...
regarding the draw, does not make a difference, it is the best what you can get from Spain, of course that Barca and Real derby would draw the major audience, but with this draw, we could miss the derby between Real and Barca after all, so I do not believe it was a fake...

P.S. it is all just for the money, since they play in Saudi Arabia

[LTU_btc]

The Spanish Super Cup draw was held today and here are the semis:

So, we'll have one El Clasico on December 18th, and then we could potentially have another one month later, totally a coincidence, the Spanish Football federation did not plan this lol

IMO, Super Cup in the middle of season is really dumb idea, especially when it will be held somewhere in Saudi Arabia.
Such draw isn't surprising, because everyone wants to see El Clasico in final. Though, I think it's high chance that we won't see it...

Just leaving here the XG for this part of the Liga.

Football is a fun game

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/m0AuD.png

https://understat.com/league/La_liga

Luckiest team: Barca

Unluckiest teams: Atletico and Villareal

Interesting, but I don't get how exactly these stats are calculated?

[Trofo]

Just leaving here the XG for this part of the Liga.

Football is a fun game

https://i.imgur.com/dl97Ug0.png

https://understat.com/league/La_liga

Luckiest team: Barca

Unluckiest teams: Atletico and Villareal

Interesting, but I don't get how exactly these stats are calculated?

I wanted to ask something similar. I sort of understand what expected goals means but what does that statistic information have with luck? If there is a simple way of explaining expected goals calculation I would very much like to hear it.

[swogerino]

The Spanish Super Cup draw was held today and here are the semis:

So, we'll have one El Clasico on December 18th, and then we could potentially have another one month later, totally a coincidence, the Spanish Football federation did not plan this lol

IMO, Super Cup in the middle of season is really dumb idea, especially when it will be held somewhere in Saudi Arabia.
Such draw isn't surprising, because everyone wants to see El Clasico in final. Though, I think it's high chance that we won't see it...

Just leaving here the XG for this part of the Liga.

Football is a fun game

https://i.imgur.com/dl97Ug0.png

https://understat.com/league/La_liga

Luckiest team: Barca

Unluckiest teams: Atletico and Villareal

Interesting, but I don't get how exactly these stats are calculated?

I also think that hosting the Supercup of a nation in the middle of the season and in another country doesn’t make a whole lot of sense but that is just Spanish Soccer Association decided it.I don’t think it will have the interest that we are used to see when the Supercup is host locally and played in Spain.

[coinlocket$]

Interesting, but I don't get how exactly these stats are calculated?

It's calculated with a lot of values on the formula.

For example from here

https://www.optasportspro.com/news-analysis/blog-expected-goals-in-context/

Opta’s xG model is calculated using a logistic regression where the dependent variable is whether or not the shot was a goal and the regression inputs are as follows:

– Passage of play (open play, direct free kick, set play, corner kick, assisted, throw-in)
– Assist type (long ball, cross, through ball, danger-zone pass, pull-back)
– Post-Take–on
– Rebound
– Header
– Distance to goal
– Visible angle of the goal
– 1 v 1
– Big chance
– Competition adjustments for a subset of competitions

It's a very complex way to calculate the extimated value.

[logfiles]

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona won today and this means Barcelona is at the top with 28 points while Real Madrid comes second with the same number of points. Barcelona is only ahead of Real Madrid by a goal difference of 1  

Atletico Madrid comes 3rd and then Sevilla fourth. Looks like the table is already taking shape.
I can't wait to see that El Clasico this coming month

[Upgrade00]

I also think that hosting the Supercup of a nation in the middle of the season and in another country doesn’t make a whole lot of sense but that is just Spanish Soccer Association decided it.I don’t think it will have the interest that we are used to see when the Supercup is host locally and played in Spain.

Globally I think it would have the same interest as when it is hosted by a Spanish team. The local fans will be aggrieved about having to travel to another continent to watch the Spanish cup but fans in Asia won't be complaining. The entire process seems financially motivated as the Saudi Arabian government looks to make more inroads in sports and possibly make it a major source if revenue as it is in Europe.

An El classico final is possible but not certain, both teams have been far from convincing this season and would have to dig deep over two legs to reach the last stage.

[Daniel91]

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona won today and this means Barcelona is at the top with 28 points while Real Madrid comes second with the same number of points. Barcelona is only ahead of Real Madrid by a goal difference of 1  

Atletico Madrid comes 3rd and then Sevilla fourth. Looks like the table is already taking shape.
I can't wait to see that El Clasico this coming month

Both Real and Barcelona have done poorly this season, both in the national championship and in the Champions League.
Fortunately for them, other clubs in Spain have also their ups and downs, like Atletico Madrid for example, and it's still an early stage in the Champions League and they play with weaker clubs, so they will pass to the next phase of the competition and have time to improve the quality of their matches.
They have the quality and the experience and in the spring it will be seen who will win the Championship and whether they can win the Champions League.

[nelson4lov]

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona won today and this means Barcelona is at the top with 28 points while Real Madrid comes second with the same number of points. Barcelona is only ahead of Real Madrid by a goal difference of 1  

Atletico Madrid comes 3rd and then Sevilla fourth. Looks like the table is already taking shape.
I can't wait to see that El Clasico this coming month

Nice thoughts... But it's still too early to start thinking that way, the league is far from over . I do think the Spanish League wouldn't just be a walk in the park for neither Real Madrid or Barcelona except they figure out where they're lacking and resolve it. Athletico Madrid would've been better this season to take the top position if they still had greizman in their team. For the El Classico next month, Barcelona looks to be the better of the two this season

[Juggy777]

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona won today and this means Barcelona is at the top with 28 points while Real Madrid comes second with the same number of points. Barcelona is only ahead of Real Madrid by a goal difference of 1  

I can't wait to see that El Clasico this coming month

@logfiles while Real Madrid and Barcelona won their respective matches it’s important to highlight the fact that the former cruised to victory, and the latter had to fight hard to win their match. I believe Real Madrid shall win the El Classico as they’re finally settling as a team, and on the other hand Barcelona are struggling despite having players like Griezmann and Messi.

Sources:

https://www.barcablaugranes.com/barcelona-la-liga/2019/11/24/20980081/three-things-we-learned-from-barcelonas-win-over-leganes

https://www.sportskeeda.com/football/laliga-2019-2020-real-madrid-3-1-real-sociedad-3-talking-points

[tomahawk9]

I'm killing it in La Liga, but i'm not winning any bets lol Yesterday, I had an acca with Granada 1X @1.92, got that result right but I lost my acca, same thing happened with Real Madrid, went with ML but ended up losing yet another acca. Today, it's looking like this in my three team parlay:


Espanyol - Getafe
Athletic Bilbao

C'mon, Man Utd!  

I believe Real Madrid shall win the El Classico as they’re finally settling as a team, and on the other hand Barcelona are struggling despite having players like Griezmann and Messi.

We're looking pretty good right now, but as a RM fan, I would never underestimate Barca, specially not when they're playing at home. To me, regardless of the current form of both teams in La Liga, there are no favorites in El Clasico before kick-off.

[daarul50]

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona won today and this means Barcelona is at the top with 28 points while Real Madrid comes second with the same number of points. Barcelona is only ahead of Real Madrid by a goal difference of 1  

Atletico Madrid comes 3rd and then Sevilla fourth. Looks like the table is already taking shape.
I can't wait to see that El Clasico this coming month

due the el classico was postponed, real madrid and barcelona still have 1 more game to play while others dont.

the title race seems more healthy these days between the 1, 2, 3 and 4th position, sevilla and atletico madrid put a good pressure to both barcelona and real madrid, good to see that kind competition.
yesterday barcelona and real madrid both lost 1-0 first before make a comeback, what a coincidence.

[LTU_btc]

I'm killing it in La Liga, but i'm not winning any bets lol Yesterday, I had an acca with Granada 1X @1.92, got that result right but I lost my acca, same thing happened with Real Madrid, went with ML but ended up losing yet another acca. Today, it's looking like this in my three team parlay:


Espanyol - Getafe
Athletic Bilbao

C'mon, Man Utd! 

I believe Real Madrid shall win the El Classico as they’re finally settling as a team, and on the other hand Barcelona are struggling despite having players like Griezmann and Messi.

We're looking pretty good right now, but as a RM fan, I would never underestimate Barca, specially not when they're playing at home. To me, regardless of the current form of both teams in La Liga, there are no favorites in El Clasico before kick-off.

Did you added MU to your parlay? Oh, probably it wasn't best decision. My personal golden rule - never bet on MU . Not even talk about adding them to parlay.
Speaking about El Clasico, I agree that there is no favorite this time. Real looks solid recently, but things may change, because there is still few weeks left until the game. And Barca at home and away is two different teams. Away we are struggling a lot against bottom teams like Leganes. While at home we are much more solid, scoring more goals. Though, very far away from being perfect. But I don't expect anything better under Valverde anymore.

[logfiles]

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona won today and this means Barcelona is at the top with 28 points while Real Madrid comes second with the same number of points. Barcelona is only ahead of Real Madrid by a goal difference of 1  

I can't wait to see that El Clasico this coming month

@logfiles while Real Madrid and Barcelona won their respective matches it’s important to highlight the fact that the former cruised to victory, and the latter had to fight hard to win their match. I believe Real Madrid shall win the El Classico as they’re finally settling as a team, and on the other hand Barcelona are struggling despite having players like Griezmann and Messi.

Surely Griezmann hasn't lived up to the expectations so far but Messi is still good. He's literally the reason Barcelona keeps dragging on in matches like the one yesterday.

I believe he will have a very great impact for Barcelona in the El Clasico. Real Madrid seems to have found some rhythm in the midfield. In fact most goals so far are from the midfield. Let's see how it will go.

[coinlocket$]

How good is Atletico at this moment of the season?
(I'm interested in the following turn of the Champion's League)

For sure some players are not in a good stage the major example is Joao Felix.
10 Games so far 2 goals 1 assist, very low considering he can be the next thing after CR7 and Messi.

[EdenHazard]

How good is Atletico at this moment of the season?
(I'm interested in the following turn of the Champion's League)

For sure some players are not in a good stage the major example is Joao Felix.
10 Games so far 2 goals 1 assist, very low considering he can be the next thing after CR7 and Messi.

They are not in best form but not bad either. Joao felix has made a big influence to every single atletico Madrid games .. unfortunately the metric to value a player is good or not on how much they make an assist or goal which Joao felix so far haven't delivered it much.

Eventhough if you look at the last 5 atletico madrid matches, they only gets 1 win 1 lost and 3 draw. Quite much different when you look at the other competitor like barcelona or real madrid as both in beast mode.
Atletico madrid will faces a though week .. tomorrow against Juventus and the next one in the weekend against Barcelona at home.
I would avoid picking these two matches in the pre-match bet , I'll wait till they are in action in live betting.

[Furious 7]

How good is Atletico at this moment of the season?
(I'm interested in the following turn of the Champion's League)

For sure some players are not in a good stage the major example is Joao Felix.
10 Games so far 2 goals 1 assist, very low considering he can be the next thing after CR7 and Messi.

They are not in best form but not bad either. Joao felix has made a big influence to every single atletico Madrid games .. unfortunately the metric to value a player is good or not on how much they make an assist or goal which Joao felix so far haven't delivered it much.

Eventhough if you look at the last 5 atletico madrid matches, they only gets 1 win 1 lost and 3 draw. Quite much different when you look at the other competitor like barcelona or real madrid as both in beast mode.
Atletico madrid will faces a though week .. tomorrow against Juventus and the next one in the weekend against Barcelona at home.
I would avoid picking these two matches in the pre-match bet , I'll wait till they are in action in live betting.

2 tough matches for Atletico Madrid in the next 2 weeks, I think Atletico Madrid should be in the champions league because if you win against Juventus then the points will be the same and it is safe to the next round.
I think in this fall it will be interesting where both teams will score goals.

[skarais]

~~~
I would avoid picking these two matches in the pre-match bet , I'll wait till they are in action in live betting.

Not brave enough to bet before the match, I doubt Atletico wins the next two matches against Juventus and Barcelona.
The best time to bet on two matches is when the match has taken place, but that might not be for fans of Juventus and Barcelona.

[huige007]

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona won today and this means Barcelona is at the top with 28 points while Real Madrid comes second with the same number of points. Barcelona is only ahead of Real Madrid by a goal difference of 1  

Atletico Madrid comes 3rd and then Sevilla fourth. Looks like the table is already taking shape.
I can't wait to see that El Clasico this coming month

Nice thoughts... But it's still too early to start thinking that way, the league is far from over . I do think the Spanish League wouldn't just be a walk in the park for neither Real Madrid or Barcelona except they figure out where they're lacking and resolve it. Athletico Madrid would've been better this season to take the top position if they still had greizman in their team. For the El Classico next month, Barcelona looks to be the better of the two this season

Can expect all this from Barcelona. It is an amazing team, always remained on the top or mostly. The most painful thing for Real Madrid fans would be this one inch defeat that is mostly the case. But both teams put a real good shown on the floor. I also hold opinion that Barcelona has more chances to win. Athletico Madrid indeed is suffering loss by losing Griezman. He was the backbone of team.