It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[stompix]

also the fact that used S9s are going on sale!!, you can find them for $25-30 with PSU,

On my local ads website, something like ebay, the prices are....I don't know how to call them!

Antminer s9 + source € 184
Antminer 14Th  € 211 (per piece)
Antminer S9 € 122
Antminer s9 14th / s € 200

The cheapest is at 60 Euros, and no, nowhere in the country can you mine with residential electricity rates, the only deal would be only to mine during the night at custom commercial rates for 4eurocents/kwh.

FUN FACT:
It could take 19 days to do a jump.

We could also see a few days with only 100+ sat in fee transactions getting confirmed as we almost had 24h with nothing over 50sat/b getting though.

[1715226792]

1715226792

[favebook]

Well, you are in Europe (same as me) and prices are higher beacuse of VAT. You can order from resellers in China for 20$ per S9 (with PSU) if you order in bulk (500+ if I remember correctly), but good luck importing it in some countries...

[philipma1957]

Okay  1 day into this jump.

Latest Block:   631122  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   79.8611%  (115 / 144.00 expected, 29 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15138043247082.88XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12382640056415 and 14773682956890
Next Difficulty Change:   between -18.2018% and -2.4069%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 9:32 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 3, 2020 at 6:56 AM  (in 13d 9h 23m 27s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 6, 2020 at 10:16 AM  (in 16d 12h 43m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 23m 27s and 17d 12h 43m 49s

we are down 29 blocks.

which means 290 after 10 days

and 406 after 14 days

so in theory on June 2   9:32 pm.  0%.   Just finished 2016, but  we will be at 1610 on June 2.

Time will tell.

[alh]

No particular relief on the BTC price front: $9095 at the moment.

[philipma1957]

2 days in and down 48 blocks

[minefarmbuy]

I'm surprised to see hashrate just slightly up after this re target. Was expecting to see faster blocks with about 110EH. I suppose price drop is keeping some equipment from coming back online.

[philipma1957]

hash rate is slow.

My guess is a lot more s9's were running then people believed.

Latest Block:   631306  (22 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   82.0047%  (299 / 364.61 expected, 65.61 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15138043247082.88XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12531107133109 and 14319900528820
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.2211% and -5.4045%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 9:32 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 3, 2020 at 5:47 PM  (in 12d 7h 28m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 5, 2020 at 11:16 PM  (in 14d 12h 57m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 20h 14m 56s and 17d 1h 43m 56s

day 1.  115 vs 144
day 2.  125 vs 144.   240 vs 288 down 48.  and we are down 17 more today.

day 3.5   403. vs. 498.  95 down. and we are actually  13 hours away from the 4 day mark.  WE don't see this type of drop in btc , but I believe it puts price pressure in a downward manner. This 20% drop could cause 8800 price as price follows diff. (very rare)

in an hour we will be 4 days in we should do 144 x 4 = 576 blocks

we will be  more like 472 blocks  or 104 blocks down

that is 26 blocks a day off  norm of 144

at 118   or so a day  we will have an 18 day time period for the jump  which may be the longest we have had in 8 years or more.

[minefarmbuy]

Yea, i've got a read of 122 blocks per day atm.

at 118   or so a day  we will have an 18 jump  which may be the longest we have had in 8 years or more.

What's the reference to an 18 jump?

[philipma1957]

18 days to finish the jump.

[alh]

No relief on the price front: $8790 per BTC coin.

[philipma1957]

No relief on the price front: $8790 per BTC coin.

I expected this .

It is the flip flop of diff chasing price. We sometimes get price chasing diff.

That 8790 is like 4395 if it were april.

Now that price is chasing diff  do we get a stronger drop of diff?

I would hope to see an eight teen day jump which is over 25%

and price settle near 8k.

That could give us a third drop in diff. maybe 10%.

we could go under 10.0 with some luck.

I also see bitmain dropping price on gear by tuesday or weds this week.

As bad as all this seems stay strong. Prep for better mining ⛏ down the road.

And get ready for wave two of covid-19

Brazil is about to explode with death 💀 in Rio.

God help us all.

I just want to be typing here next April fools day.  I am going to try to come up with a good one ☝️.

[minefarmbuy]

Yea, hashrate is trickling down. I see about 6% drop atm so 10% isn't out of the question if fees keep dropping along with market rate.

[philipma1957]

Yea, hashrate is trickling down. I see about 6% drop atm so 10% isn't out of the question if fees keep dropping along with market rate.

2020 has been an amazingly  bad year so far.

For a lot of things.  besides. difficulty.

Although so far it is behaving exactly like LTC did last year.

If it mirrors that we drop to 3500-5000 and a diff of only 4 -6

I don't think we do that bad.

But I can see under 7k and under a diff of 9

[minefarmbuy]

Likely too much buy pressure to go much lower than the 7k you're projecting. Then if I'm wrong buy the dip everyone.

[philipma1957]

well  numbers are freaking brutal

Latest Block:   631711  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   83.9137%  (704 / 838.96 expected, 134.96 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15138043247082.88XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12754737658172 and 13665987854178
Next Difficulty Change:   between -15.7438% and -9.7242%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 9:32 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 4, 2020 at 10:40 AM  (in 9d 17h 18m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 5, 2020 at 1:57 PM  (in 10d 20h 35m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 13h 7m 51s and 16d 16h 24m 40s

and 8899.50 price   make for a tough go for even a paid for s17pro at 5 cents.

is earning 4.50
is burning 2.65
net of ....  1.85  not too good.

At 9:32pm eastern standard time we will be at the 6 days mark  so 6 x 144 = 864 blocks

Latest Block:   631719  (45 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   82.4073%  (712 / 864.00 expected, 152 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15138043247082.88XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12524282460732 and 13499467091877
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.2662% and -10.8242%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 9:32 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 4, 2020 at 3:16 PM  (in 9d 17h 43m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 5, 2020 at 9:16 PM  (in 10d 23h 43m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 17h 43m 11s and 16d 23h 43m 51s

152/6 = 25.333 blocks a day off the pace.  We will need to see how this keeps up.

at 932 pm about 10 min ago we should have been

1008 exactly half way.

we were at

842

down 166 blocks.

we were mining at a higher rate today we made.

130 blocks.

[alh]

A little bit of relief: BTC price is $9414. Still going to drive all be the most efficient mining operations out the market.

[philipma1957]

Yeah people are getting some s19's today so diff is no longer in free fall  I thought we had a shot at 20%.

Seems more like 12%  will be final number.

the 9414 price and s19 gear arriving  will not allow a huge diff drop of 18-20%

Latest Block:   632196  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.8795%  (1189 / 1384.50 expected, 195.5 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15138043247082.88XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 13032577234250 and 13344914830477
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.9084% and -11.8452%
Previous Retarget:   May 19, 2020 at 9:32 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 7:29 PM  (in 6d 7h 11m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 5, 2020 at 4:47 AM  (in 6d 16h 29m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 21h 56m 56s and 16d 7h 14m 44s

[stompix]

Surprising increase in number of blocks mined in the last 24h, 161!!!!, getting from 195.5 to 181.51 behind.

Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.5318% and -9.9414%
Previous Retarget:   May 20, 2020 at 4:32 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 6:20 PM  (in 3d 19h 22m 53s)

If it ain't luck but miners, it's too late to really influence the difficulty, so a minus 8-9%, but we might go back up again next time by some serious percentages. A 10% increase from the lowest point would mean Bitmain shipping ~100k miners, could they have produced that many?

[philipma1957]

Well it means about 161/144  which is +11.8%

vs all the 120/144  which is -16.7%  which was the first five or six days of this jump

all time diff was 16.5  we are at a diff of 15.1  so in theory 15.1 x 1.118 = 16.88  since that is a very tiny amount over all time diff.

16.88/16.5 = a 2.3 %   very little new gear and a lot of old gear may have caused this

or some new gear and some old gear

or lots of new gear and very little old gear.

or really good luck.

My guess is  s19 pro and s19  shipped in 10,000 units to 20,000 unitswhich is

1000000 th   - 2000000th
      1000  ph - 2000ph
            1 eh   - 2eh

plus people turn on break even gear to be ready for the diff drop.

if true  we do -9% this jump

then +6% next jump

then unless price moves we see a drop.

of course this is all short term thinking.  and 1 day at 161 blocks can be followed by 1 day at 137 blocks as variance and luck are a factor.

[favebook]

There is a lot of new gear (S19 and S19 Pro) arriving in Serbia since 3 days ago, which means that there should be a lot of same units in America soon too. China probably had them a few days earlier too. This is it for diff dropping IMO. I really doubt we will see any lower diff this year. S19 will just be replacing S9s and bringing a ton of more hashrate than people will be able to disconnect by not mining with S9s anymore.