Gws24


January 22, 2021, 02:56:30 PM 

Hi, I'm trying my luck on my laptop which runs anyway when I work from home. I'm running the below: poclbm.exe 3KB75QPHs58ZHxqc16ZCfHxfeoWxBLUzTx.0:@solo.ckpool.org:4334 via GUIMiner It looks like it's hashing alright with incredible 100 Mhash/s (I know it's next to nothing) For some reason the pool stats are not available for me: https://solo.ckpool.org/users/3KB75QPHs58ZHxqc16ZCfHxfeoWxBLUzTxWould anyone know the reason why? Your hash is so very very very very very (etc ) low you haven't submitted a share yet that meets the minimum required and probably won't for a long time so there are no stats to show. You should ask yourself if it's worth it to stress your laptop in that way for an almost non existent chance of hitting a block. If you go to solochance.com and input 100 Mh/s than you're expected to find a block in 29,235,169 years and that's only the average, it could be ten times longer and it doesn''t account for increasing difficulty.








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tani_kredyt
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January 22, 2021, 03:41:35 PM 

Thx for quick response. GUIMiner says 536 shares were accepted so I would assume my stats would be visible?
Laptop is not so stressed according to task manager and it's just warm so I probably could optimise it a bit. Anyway, I treat it as a lottery that costs next to nothing so the chance of winning is next to nothing.




Gws24


January 23, 2021, 01:46:48 PM 

Thx for quick response. GUIMiner says 536 shares were accepted so I would assume my stats would be visible?
hmm, forgot about the vardiff this pool uses so you could have accepted shares but then it'll be up to ck to check what's going on and why your hashrate is not showng up. Laptop is not so stressed according to task manager and it's just warm so I probably could optimise it a bit. Anyway, I treat it as a lottery that costs next to nothing so the chance of winning is next to nothing.
If you view it like that than ok, just wanted to warn you.




garetjax
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January 23, 2021, 02:09:36 PM 

Thx for quick response. GUIMiner says 536 shares were accepted so I would assume my stats would be visible?
Laptop is not so stressed according to task manager and it's just warm so I probably could optimise it a bit. Anyway, I treat it as a lottery that costs next to nothing so the chance of winning is next to nothing.
If you just want to lottery mine you may want to look at sidehack's USB miners, you would be getting GH not MH with just one stick and you could use a super cheap and low power raspberry pi running headless to control it  much less power than running a laptop. Also you could get one of his usb hubs and run a bunch of them if you wanted. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5053711.0




digg_er
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January 24, 2021, 06:36:13 PM 

Thx for quick response. GUIMiner says 536 shares were accepted so I would assume my stats would be visible?
Laptop is not so stressed according to task manager and it's just warm so I probably could optimise it a bit. Anyway, I treat it as a lottery that costs next to nothing so the chance of winning is next to nothing.
I will write my first comment here. I've enjoyed reading this thread including a lot of its history and I've been completly silent but it made me wiser . People most often get interested in cryptocurrencies when it gets a loud on this so typically when the price is crazy pumped up. Some of them might think, why not mine, maybe I'll get lucky. And I can say it makes no sense . My thought late autumn 2019 was the same (after reading a lot on forums). I wanted to buy one Antminer S9, with power of 14TH, and I've thought maybe I'll get lucky. But quick calculation of expected energy bill  140 EUR (a month) just for mining with probability of hitting a block after 70 years (on average) made me unsure about this If I have done this, after 1,5y of mining I would endup with electricity bills of 2500 EUR with no BTC at all. Solo chance says now it would take 207 years on average to hit a block with such hash rate (because difficulty still goes up, more hash power is put into the network). I don't want to imagine what chance I can expect in next year or two. So I ended up with mining Monero just for fun, and one USB 2pac miner for bitcoin lottery in one PC. After 10 months of mining Monero with hash rate of about 15khash and a little extra Nicehash power (again just for fun , finally I've hit a block with a luck of about 250% (and that was not a day when I used Nicehash). So now you can feel what kind of probability we are talking about. The most known lottery in Poland: you cross 6 out of 49 numbers. 6 are drawn from pool. The chance for hitting all 6 is 1:13 983 816 You can win 2,5mln EUR Bitcoin, chance of hitting a block a day with 70 Gigahash (I mine for fun with) is 1:14 993 148 You can win about 180k EUR Actually buying a lottery ticket every day to win 2,5mln EUR is wiser. That's just small summary for all newbies thinking of mining with CPU PS. thank you CK solo pool is here. At least I could go through this, do some exercises, and read a lot of history to understand what the Bitcoin is really about (now).




mikeywith
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January 26, 2021, 04:21:14 AM 

The most known lottery in Poland: you cross 6 out of 49 numbers. 6 are drawn from pool. The chance for hitting all 6 is 1:13 983 816 You can win 2,5mln EUR
Bitcoin, chance of hitting a block a day with 70 Gigahash (I mine for fun with) is 1:14 993 148 You can win about 180k EUR
Actually buying a lottery ticket every day to win 2,5mln EUR is wiser.
A great analysis but I have reasons to believe that it's a bit far from accurate, the 1 in 13m chance you have with the lotto is once every week, while the odds for hitting a block which you mentioned is based on a shot every day, so for this to be a bit more accurate you need to multiply the lotto ticket cost by 7, and then if we were to assume that the average lifespan for the miner is 2 years, then you will need to multiply that by 730, so if the ticket price is 2$, you will pay $1,460 to match the number of trials that a miner can have. I am aware that there are other prize catogires of 3,4,5 matches but I think the prize is too small ot be considered, you also need to keep in mind that when you hit a bitcoin block you keep all the rewards and nobody can share them with you, where in the lotto, you are subject to share the prize with x amunt of people, on the othre hand, playing the lotto means you won't have to pay the power bill, no matiance, no cleaning no dead PSUs or a firmware glitch. There are many more factors invovled to determine which would be econcmically better, I don't have the time, skills nor the desire to do that indepth analysis (pehabs someone who does play the lotto and solo mine at the same time can do it) but I do tend to agree that perbaps and most likely playing the lotto is cheaper than solo mining. With that being said, Solo mining is way more fun!!




o_solo_miner
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January 26, 2021, 10:57:25 AM 

The most known lottery in Poland: you cross 6 out of 49 numbers. 6 are drawn from pool. The chance for hitting all 6 is 1:13 983 816 You can win 2,5mln EUR
Bitcoin, chance of hitting a block a day with 70 Gigahash (I mine for fun with) is 1:14 993 148 You can win about 180k EUR
Actually buying a lottery ticket every day to win 2,5mln EUR is wiser.
A great analysis but I have reasons to believe that it's a bit far from accurate, the 1 in 13m chance you have with the lotto is once every week, while the odds for hitting a block which you mentioned is based on a shot every day, so for this to be a bit more accurate you need to multiply the lotto ticket cost by 7, and then if we were to assume that the average lifespan for the miner is 2 years, then you will need to multiply that by 730, so if the ticket price is 2$, you will pay $1,460 to match the number of trials that a miner can have. I am aware that there are other prize catogires of 3,4,5 matches but I think the prize is too small ot be considered, you also need to keep in mind that when you hit a bitcoin block you keep all the rewards and nobody can share them with you, where in the lotto, you are subject to share the prize with x amunt of people, on the othre hand, playing the lotto means you won't have to pay the power bill, no matiance, no cleaning no dead PSUs or a firmware glitch. There are many more factors invovled to determine which would be econcmically better, I don't have the time, skills nor the desire to do that indepth analysis (pehabs someone who does play the lotto and solo mine at the same time can do it) but I do tend to agree that perbaps and most likely playing the lotto is cheaper than solo mining. With that being said, Solo mining is way more fun!! I would go a different calculation: 1 chance per ~10 min. or ~144 per day * 7 days = 1008 chances to win "~162500 €" at the moment or in total 163800000 € and that has to be compared




mikeywith
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January 27, 2021, 04:50:41 AM 

I would go a different calculation: 1 chance per ~10 min. or ~144 per day * 7 days = 1008 chances to win "~162500 €" at the moment or in total 163800000 € and that has to be compared I wish I could agree to that , but unfortunately winning profitability isn't that simple, in his example, he showed how a 70GH gear has 1 in 14,000,000 chance a day, that chance of that very same miner per block would be 14,000,000*144 = 1 in 15,000,000,000, the chance per week would be 14,000,000 / 7= 1 in 2,000,000, the number of trails is irrelevant in this comparison IMO, it's a little bit more complicated than this, probability and statistics are as complicated as women are.




chrysophylax
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February 01, 2021, 02:54:36 AM 

The most known lottery in Poland: you cross 6 out of 49 numbers. 6 are drawn from pool. The chance for hitting all 6 is 1:13 983 816 You can win 2,5mln EUR
Bitcoin, chance of hitting a block a day with 70 Gigahash (I mine for fun with) is 1:14 993 148 You can win about 180k EUR
Actually buying a lottery ticket every day to win 2,5mln EUR is wiser.
A great analysis but I have reasons to believe that it's a bit far from accurate, the 1 in 13m chance you have with the lotto is once every week, while the odds for hitting a block which you mentioned is based on a shot every day, so for this to be a bit more accurate you need to multiply the lotto ticket cost by 7, and then if we were to assume that the average lifespan for the miner is 2 years, then you will need to multiply that by 730, so if the ticket price is 2$, you will pay $1,460 to match the number of trials that a miner can have. I am aware that there are other prize catogires of 3,4,5 matches but I think the prize is too small ot be considered, you also need to keep in mind that when you hit a bitcoin block you keep all the rewards and nobody can share them with you, where in the lotto, you are subject to share the prize with x amunt of people, on the othre hand, playing the lotto means you won't have to pay the power bill, no matiance, no cleaning no dead PSUs or a firmware glitch. There are many more factors invovled to determine which would be econcmically better, I don't have the time, skills nor the desire to do that indepth analysis (pehabs someone who does play the lotto and solo mine at the same time can do it) but I do tend to agree that perbaps and most likely playing the lotto is cheaper than solo mining. With that being said, Solo mining is way more fun!! Probability ... 1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week. 1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day. Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it. However, with BTC, the chances are (like Lotto) that the more hashrate you have (the more Games in Lotto), the larger the chance of winning simply due to the amount of different plays. It is still the same probability with each hash/games played, but the chances (ie  risk of loss) are different. This is why any form of gambling (especially trading  which is a complex form of gambling) have their risk. The difference is, that with Lotto, a games may NOT win, whereas with BTC (or almost any other Crypto) a block WILL be hit at certain interval. So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty  EVER. #crysx




philipma1957
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February 01, 2021, 03:37:01 AM 


I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.



mikeywith
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February 01, 2021, 03:53:19 AM 

1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week.
1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day.
Nothing of what I said contradicts this, you are just using a different form of representation of probabltity, 1 in x chance every block is equal to 1/144 chance a day. Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it.
No, it's not the same, this can't be further from the truth. So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty  EVER.
This is also wrong, first of all, it's not guaranteed that a block is to be found every 10 mins it could take days, it can even take years, there is no law in the universe that forces a bitcoin block to be found in x amount of time, but then even if we were to agree to the 10 mins theory, it really doesn't matter, just because a block is guaranteed to be found it does not make your chances any better, also just because there is a possibility that nobody wins the lotto it doesn't make your chances any worse, the probability of any other event happening aside from you being lucky enough has absolutely ZERO impact on your own luck. Think about it this way, imagine that nobody else but you is trying to solve the next Bitcoin block, does that increase/decrease your chances? the simple answer is 'No', and the same thing goes for the lotto, whether you are playing it alone or with a trillion other people/tickets your chances are ALWAYS the same. It's a general misconception that many people think they are competing against other miners or other lotto players, no you are not, you are competing against your own luck and that's all about it, the lotto has an exception of the reward being divided between possible potential winners and that's a whole different scope.




philipma1957
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February 01, 2021, 04:03:26 AM 

A 0.0055 play at nicehash could hit 1,2,3 even 4 blocks when played quickly at high hash rates
For instance I play 0.0055 btc at 50ph of hash for about 24 or 30 minutes.
so my shot at a single block is around
0.0055/6.25 or 1 in 1136 for that play
but with outstanding luck my shot at 2 blocks is 1136 x 1136 = 1,290,496 to 1.
and with god like luck my shot at 3 blocks is 1136 x 1136 x 1136= 1,466,003,456 to one.
Those numbers are at the start of the play.
As the rental dies out and no blocks are hit the odds worsen.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.



OlgaMachslochov
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February 01, 2021, 03:46:05 PM 

The most known lottery in Poland: you cross 6 out of 49 numbers. 6 are drawn from pool. The chance for hitting all 6 is 1:13 983 816 You can win 2,5mln EUR
Bitcoin, chance of hitting a block a day with 70 Gigahash (I mine for fun with) is 1:14 993 148 You can win about 180k EUR
Actually buying a lottery ticket every day to win 2,5mln EUR is wiser.
A great analysis but I have reasons to believe that it's a bit far from accurate, the 1 in 13m chance you have with the lotto is once every week, while the odds for hitting a block which you mentioned is based on a shot every day, so for this to be a bit more accurate you need to multiply the lotto ticket cost by 7, and then if we were to assume that the average lifespan for the miner is 2 years, then you will need to multiply that by 730, so if the ticket price is 2$, you will pay $1,460 to match the number of trials that a miner can have. I am aware that there are other prize catogires of 3,4,5 matches but I think the prize is too small ot be considered, you also need to keep in mind that when you hit a bitcoin block you keep all the rewards and nobody can share them with you, where in the lotto, you are subject to share the prize with x amunt of people, on the othre hand, playing the lotto means you won't have to pay the power bill, no matiance, no cleaning no dead PSUs or a firmware glitch. There are many more factors invovled to determine which would be econcmically better, I don't have the time, skills nor the desire to do that indepth analysis (pehabs someone who does play the lotto and solo mine at the same time can do it) but I do tend to agree that perbaps and most likely playing the lotto is cheaper than solo mining. With that being said, Solo mining is way more fun!! Probability ... 1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week. 1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day. Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it. However, with BTC, the chances are (like Lotto) that the more hashrate you have (the more Games in Lotto), the larger the chance of winning simply due to the amount of different plays. It is still the same probability with each hash/games played, but the chances (ie  risk of loss) are different. This is why any form of gambling (especially trading  which is a complex form of gambling) have their risk. The difference is, that with Lotto, a games may NOT win, whereas with BTC (or almost any other Crypto) a block WILL be hit at certain interval. So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty  EVER. #crysx I do not agree on the "Absolute Certainty" Part. It is just an onaveragesolutiontimespan derived from the Poisson Distribution Probability. There were periods when the time between two blocks found were 3 hours for example. If you want to calculate the true probability you need to consider every hash value and its chance of beeing below the current difficulty level. Lets go for the 70GH/s. Say the current Diff is 20T and for BTC the Diff Value when 1 corresponds to 8 leading hex numbers which means 2 to the power of 32 in binary. So roughly 4,3 billion hashs in decimal system necessary to find such a value on average. Multiplay this with 20.000 billion (20T) and you get the chance for each single hash calculated of beeing below that threshold. For such small possibilities you can simply sum them up, the deviation is negletable. But please consider this isnt possible anymore for "probable" events. If you would control the complete BTC Hashrate your Chance of finding a Block in 10 mins is around 63% and not 100% when you sum all hashs up (your machines would have calculated the above mentioned amount of hashs in that time) but as stated at the beginning the probabilty is a distribution. To achieve 100% your integral would need to be 1 and that means to integrate to infinity. Which is hard to achieve if we believe our state of the art science that the universe is finite in regard of its lifespan




chrysophylax
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February 02, 2021, 04:43:43 AM 

1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week.
1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day.
Nothing of what I said contradicts this, you are just using a different form of representation of probabltity, 1 in x chance every block is equal to 1/144 chance a day. Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it.
No, it's not the same, this can't be further from the truth. So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty  EVER.
This is also wrong, first of all, it's not guaranteed that a block is to be found every 10 mins it could take days, it can even take years, there is no law in the universe that forces a bitcoin block to be found in x amount of time, but then even if we were to agree to the 10 mins theory, it really doesn't matter, just because a block is guaranteed to be found it does not make your chances any better, also just because there is a possibility that nobody wins the lotto it doesn't make your chances any worse, the probability of any other event happening aside from you being lucky enough has absolutely ZERO impact on your own luck. Think about it this way, imagine that nobody else but you is trying to solve the next Bitcoin block, does that increase/decrease your chances? the simple answer is 'No', and the same thing goes for the lotto, whether you are playing it alone or with a trillion other people/tickets your chances are ALWAYS the same. It's a general misconception that many people think they are competing against other miners or other lotto players, no you are not, you are competing against your own luck and that's all about it, the lotto has an exception of the reward being divided between possible potential winners and that's a whole different scope. And this is why ... This is why the system is misunderstood  because you think I am wrong on statistical probabilities that are fact, as well as ratios and mathematical facts that you think are incorrect. All good though, the more you believe you are right, the more those like me seem to be benefittting from the manipulation of these statistical facts. Probability has feeling, so what you believe or feel is right or wrong is irrelevant. It's maths. The probability is based on EVERY block, on EVERY game, on EVERY hash. Whether we like it or not. It makes no difference anyway guys, as the probabilities are not what we are all dealing with here. A block WILL be hit when the hashrate is there, that is coded into the system, whether 10minutes or so is also (almost) irrelevant, it WILL be hit  it actually HAS to be unless the chain is stopped with no hash driving it. I don't need to argue these facts with you, look at the probabilities of Lotto for every games played, and the same goes for every block, All good though. The misconception there is in the world, the better for those that can deal with the way it works. #crysx




OlgaMachslochov
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February 02, 2021, 01:32:36 PM 

And this is why ...
This is why the system is misunderstood  because you think I am wrong on statistical probabilities that are fact, as well as ratios and mathematical facts that you think are incorrect.
All good though, the more you believe you are right, the more those like me seem to be benefittting from the manipulation of these statistical facts. Probability has feeling, so what you believe or feel is right or wrong is irrelevant. It's maths. The probability is based on EVERY block, on EVERY game, on EVERY hash. Whether we like it or not.
It makes no difference anyway guys, as the probabilities are not what we are all dealing with here. A block WILL be hit when the hashrate is there, that is coded into the system, whether 10minutes or so is also (almost) irrelevant, it WILL be hit  it actually HAS to be unless the chain is stopped with no hash driving it.
I don't need to argue these facts with you, look at the probabilities of Lotto for every games played, and the same goes for every block,
All good though. The misconception there is in the world, the better for those that can deal with the way it works.
#crysx [/quote]
This will be my last post on that topic, because I already believe argueing is kind of senseless here. I didnt put any feeling or emotional expression into my reply. Please provide me the lines of code where the Certainty of solving a block is implemented (and I dont mean the Diff Adjustment based on the average blocktime). Maybe the following analogy might help: The probability for a standard dice to roll a 1 is 1/6. But that doesnt mean, that you get a 1 every 6 rolls. It is highly improbable but possible, that you roll a 1 six times in a row but the same is to say for not a single 1 in 30 tries. Even if you roll 100 or 1000 times you're not guarenteed to get a 1 but the chances for that are ridiculously small, but it is still NOT CERTAIN! The same goes for BTC Mining and the underlying SHA256 hashing. Although the "dice" here has 2 to the power of 256 sides which is for human beings an incredible huge solution space. Because it is that large there is no specific hash value demanded but every value that fulfills the defined criteria. Sticking to BTC being below a certain threshold that is adjusted every 2016 blocks and corresponds to enough leading zeros in the hashvalue of a solution. But the principal stays the same, there's no guarentee of finding such solution in a finite timespan.




digg_er
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February 03, 2021, 10:10:02 AM 

hey, don't argue here that much in this nice thread . it was only to explain to newbies that counting on hitting a block makes no sense nowadays




chrysophylax
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February 03, 2021, 10:29:32 AM 

hey, don't argue here that much in this nice thread . it was only to explain to newbies that counting on hitting a block makes no sense nowadays True ... Whatever the thoughts that come across, there is no sense in squabbling. I KNOW what works for me with the understanding I have, and so does everyone else. To each their own and hopefully we can all pull through this together (hence the reason for a Pool in the first place). The system is based on what we can do to help one another, and I have had more than my share of help from everyone here, including some schooling So for that I am thankful, and whether I explain myself clearly or not, it is not about squabbling, more that it is about sharing mindsets, trains of thought and hard evidence of what works for you  no matter what 'your setup' may be. Now to get that damn theSolarFarm running in the next 12 months, and start slamming the hell out of the hashrate #crysx




spacerunner21
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February 03, 2021, 11:11:51 AM 

First of all, thank you for the valuable information in that thread and of course, thank you for keeping the pool running ! I am new to crypto currencies and read into the topic for a couple weeks now. For some reasons, I decided to join the game, buy some mining hardware and gamble solo for a block. And yes, I clearly understand this as gambling.However, it seems hard to find actual (recent) information on solo mining, particularly risks involved. So my question is: Assuming I join solo.ckpool.org for solo mining, what risks are still present *except*  the money I spend in hardware (including breakage)  the money I spend in power ? Are there any? Any tips are greatly appreciated. Thank you




philipma1957
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February 03, 2021, 12:51:54 PM 

First of all, thank you for the valuable information in that thread and of course, thank you for keeping the pool running ! I am new to crypto currencies and read into the topic for a couple weeks now. For some reasons, I decided to join the game, buy some mining hardware and gamble solo for a block. And yes, I clearly understand this as gambling.However, it seems hard to find actual (recent) information on solo mining, particularly risks involved. So my question is: Assuming I join solo.ckpool.org for solo mining, what risks are still present *except*  the money I spend in hardware (including breakage)  the money I spend in power ? Are there any? Any tips are greatly appreciated. Thank you You could win a block causing tax problems or people wanting money from you. I toss some gear here just because I can. https://solo.ckpool.org/users/146UJM5kgzLVUV23CXCf33KQKHckoX1gx3every once in a while I rent some hash but it is really hard to hit a block now due to high cost of coin. Ie if you rent at a good fair price 1 coin would give you about a 1 in 6.25 chance Asking to spend 35,000 USD for a 1 in 6 chance is hard.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.



silvestro03
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February 03, 2021, 07:40:07 PM 

First of all, thank you for the valuable information in that thread and of course, thank you for keeping the pool running ! I am new to crypto currencies and read into the topic for a couple weeks now. For some reasons, I decided to join the game, buy some mining hardware and gamble solo for a block. And yes, I clearly understand this as gambling.However, it seems hard to find actual (recent) information on solo mining, particularly risks involved. So my question is: Assuming I join solo.ckpool.org for solo mining, what risks are still present *except*  the money I spend in hardware (including breakage)  the money I spend in power ? Are there any? Any tips are greatly appreciated. Thank you I did some rough calculations. it's a gambling, yes. taking into account risks and rewards, it is roughly 23 Powerball tickets a day per 1 TH/s.




