Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

I do believe that ratio of losses was almost even, but since the failed UA offensive, overwhelming Russian artillery, surprising effects and number of Russian glide bombs, number of Russian drones, and the fact that Ukraine's army is mostly conscripts where majority on Russia's side is contractors I do believe that now the ratio of losses is to Russia's advantage. You can extrapolate the rest, using your own numbers of Russian looses if you wish

Even a 2:1 ratio would yield 1 million Ukrainian soldiers out of action. do you think Ukraine mobilised 1 million soldiers? I don't. Probably more like half of that and the front in manned. See why those numbers are unbelievable?

No i do not, but all that means is that your initial assessment of 500k Russian losses is invalid.[...]

Is not "my assessment".

Back to something interesting, today Ukraine managed to hit three bases in Crimea, as usual I do not have yet satellite or other sources on how much damage was cause. There is also a claimed hit on a landing ship - particularly appreciated since these allow the movement of troops and equipment from Ruzzia to any beach without having to use ports.

I will be seeking some pictorial or video evidence.

BTW Ruzzia had been used ferries instead of the Kerch bridge, for obvious reasons, but they seem to have gone back to it. You choose what to believe... either they think the bridge is safe or the attacks on the ferries last week has left no other option.

On the economic front, it seems that the last European (Austrian) bank allowing transfers and operation of Ruzzian's oligarch assets in quitting those ops. The US started talking about sanctions so... good bye Ruzzia.

Edit: Apparently a large ship is burning near Konisberg, this is part of the baltic fleet, so it seems someone smoked in the wrong place.

[Branko]

Is not "my assessment".

Back to something interesting, today Ukraine managed to hit three bases in Crimea, as usual I do not have yet satellite or other sources on how much damage was cause. There is also a claimed hit on a landing ship - particularly appreciated since these allow the movement of troops and equipment from Ruzzia to any beach without having to use ports.

I will be seeking some pictorial or video evidence.

BTW Ruzzia had been used ferries instead of the Kerch bridge, for obvious reasons, but they seem to have gone back to it. You choose what to believe... either they think the bridge is safe or the attacks on the ferries last week has left no other option.

On the economic front, it seems that the last European (Austrian) bank allowing transfers and operation of Ruzzian's oligarch assets in quitting those ops. The US started talking about sanctions so... good bye Ruzzia.

Edit: Apparently a large ship is burning near Konisberg, this is part of the baltic fleet, so it seems someone smoked in the wrong place.

Ships burn all the time, that's nothing unusual:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/british-navy-ship-hit-by-unknown-projectile-in-the-gulf-of-aden/ar-BB1nTC26

[paxmao]

Apparently Ruzzian unofficial sources point to more than just on SU35 was damaged yesterday. They say that two were badly damaged while the other got a degree of damaged that may be repairable.

Regarding the strikes in Crimea, there are claims of a S400 and S300. These "infallible air defences" were targeted by "weapons that do not work" and intercepted them by staying there and doing nothing.

[BADecker]

The UK is way too slow. By the time they get anything done, Putin will have launched his Satan II missile(s), and cause a great tsunami that will destroy the UK islands with a gigantic tidal wave... or two - https://duckduckgo.com/?q=satan+2+tsunami++missile&ia=web.

One would think that UK people would be a little more humble.

[paxmao]

The UK is way too slow. By the time they get anything done, Putin will have launched his Satan II missile(s), and cause a great tsunami that will destroy the UK islands with a gigantic tidal wave... or two - https://duckduckgo.com/?q=satan+2+tsunami++missile&ia=web.

One would think that UK people would be a little more humble.

do you think Ruzzia would be attacking Ruzzia and killing the sons of their own elite kleptocrats? Or did you think they study at "Peter the Great " Politechnical.

A while you are confused about Ruzzian weapons systems, and where these are aiming and its intended use - oh my naïve Texan-Chinese friend who has "nothing to fear from Putin" - there seems to be a significant case of people smoking in Moscow in the wrong place.

An SU-34 crashed in Osetia. Many causes are possible, but aircraft usually require good maintenance and are limited in the hours they can fly safely.

BTW, just so you know France and the UK do have a nuclear arsenal. You knew this right?

[Branko]

Apparently Ruzzian unofficial sources point to more than just on SU35 was damaged yesterday. They say that two were badly damaged while the other got a degree of damaged that may be repairable.

Regarding the strikes in Crimea, there are claims of a S400 and S300. These "infallible air defences" were targeted by "weapons that do not work" and intercepted them by staying there and doing nothing.

There are rumors about huge numbers of decoys/false targets that Russia deployed, but both
sides keep shut about it, Russia because they want to continue Ukraine to waste precious weapons,
and Ukraine out of embarrassment and of course for PR effect

do you think Ruzzia would be attacking Ruzzia and killing the sons of their own elite kleptocrats? Or did you think they study at "Peter the Great " Politechnical.

We don't know, you tell us...you're only one claiming Putin is killing Russians around the globe all the time, so why would he
suddenly be hesitant?

[paxmao]

Apparently Ruzzian unofficial sources point to more than just on SU35 was damaged yesterday. They say that two were badly damaged while the other got a degree of damaged that may be repairable.

Regarding the strikes in Crimea, there are claims of a S400 and S300. These "infallible air defences" were targeted by "weapons that do not work" and intercepted them by staying there and doing nothing.

There are rumors about huge numbers of decoys/false targets that Russia deployed, but both
sides keep shut about it, Russia because they want to continue Ukraine to waste precious weapons,
and Ukraine out of embarrassment and of course for PR effect

do you think Ruzzia would be attacking Ruzzia and killing the sons of their own elite kleptocrats? Or did you think they study at "Peter the Great " Politechnical.

We don't know, you tell us...you're only one claiming Putin is killing Russians around the globe all the time, so why would he
suddenly be hesitant?

Just the sons of others. Tell me Branko, where is Putin's offspring (not just the official ones)? Where are the sons of the Kleptocrats studying? Hit: do not bother to look in the front.

The fact is that everyone knows what happens after an strategic nuclear strike. Keep the saber=rattling, is going nowhere.

Edited to add: However this night another air defence system seems to have been taken down in Crimea. I wonder why so many strikes are going to the air defences during this last month or so.

Today there is a video of a drone jamming equipment being hit by ... a Ukrainian drone.

[metamorphosyys]

How do you think it will all end?

[Branko]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

[Dominatordom]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

Therefore, Putin poses a threat to the world with his nuclear weapons.

[paxmao]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

That is why this war has not ended. Ruzzia has all several reasonable options available to keep their pants on and there is not anything in particular that seems like a risk overturning the Moscowian's regime. That is by design - the frog can decide when is too hot.

It would be equally dangerous to allow Ruzzia to invade at will because they got nukes, as I am sure you understand perfectly, but at the same time try to ignore.

Some pictures of what happened in Crimea last nights (mostly Ruzzia Air defence blown by weapons that do not work).





Missiles hitting the anti-missiles. I sense that quality of Ruzzia air defence is going to be questioned worldwide.

[Sender78]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

That is why this war has not ended. Ruzzia has all several reasonable options available to keep their pants on and there is not anything in particular that seems like a risk overturning the Moscowian's regime. That is by design - the frog can decide when is too hot.

It would be equally dangerous to allow Ruzzia to invade at will because they got nukes, as I am sure you understand perfectly, but at the same time try to ignore.

Some pictures of what happened in Crimea last nights (mostly Ruzzia Air defence blown by weapons that do not work).

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/kmz/2024-06-12/pic/kiber02.jpg

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/kmz/2024-06-12/pic/kiber8618.jpg

Missiles hitting the anti-missiles. I sense that quality of Ruzzia air defence is going to be questioned worldwide.

Russia's losses are huge, their military officers are constantly whining and crying about it in their chats

[xminer]

Russia did (past tense) well under Putin for some people and it should have been doing better, so guess who made a mistake? Hint: there has only been one leader in Ruzzia for decades, at least in democracies you can blame the other guy.

I cannot thank you enough for making the point for me: I have no doubt that Moscow Metro is faring fantastically, the problem is the rest of the "Ruzzian World":

Meanwhile Ruzzian toilet (outside Moscow, of course)



30,000,000 people in Russia are not connected to centralized sewage systems –despite

There are simple figures - average monthly wage in Russia vs that in Ukraine - which was always higher in Russia. If you watch POW's interviews - people state their salaries, I envy them a bit.
There were simple cases - Ukrainians going to work to Russia right from western Ukraine, where they are definitely not pro-Russian anyway.

As for toilets? If somebody has a "better shitter" in Ukraine - it's not because of Ukraine, it's because of he has personally invested into having a more comfortable life. Why don't russians do that? Probably they expect it to be done by the state and not by themselves. Does this show Ukraine in any way superior? No. It only shows Ukrainians that are used to the fact of anarchy and effective absence of state power.

I can pinpoint you places in Kyiv (not the "outskirts") where there are no connections to sewers at all. So-called "private sector" (built during USSR mostly; perhaps some were rebuilt nowdays) - tens of meters from multi-floor buildings built during USSR and Ukraine rule has no sewer connection. The house I own in one of oblasts - has "central" water (built by local community) and natural gas (same case) and everyone has a "shit collector" of their own - with ordering of shit-transporter "barrel" periodically and stuff .

[o48o]

-cut-
As for toilets? If somebody has a "better shitter" in Ukraine - it's not because of Ukraine, it's because of he has personally invested into having a more comfortable life. Why don't russians do that? Probably they expect it to be done by the state and not by themselves. Does this show Ukraine in any way superior? No. It only shows Ukrainians that are used to the fact of anarchy and effective absence of state power.
-cut-

What the hell i just read? Because i must have misunderstood that....

Are you saying that because of anarchy in Ukraine and absence of state, Ukrainians have toilets that have sewers? I suppose you think it's the anarchy that built their sewer infrastructure, and other infrastructure for the country? And why would you even need to try to assure that toilets from all the things aren't a good meter to measure "superiority"?

i suppose that we need more of that good old total chaos and anarchy that somehow also builds infrastructure.

Also, don't do drugs. (I feel that i need to say that).

[paxmao]

Russia did (past tense) well under Putin for some people and it should have been doing better, so guess who made a mistake? Hint: there has only been one leader in Ruzzia for decades, at least in democracies you can blame the other guy.

I cannot thank you enough for making the point for me: I have no doubt that Moscow Metro is faring fantastically, the problem is the rest of the "Ruzzian World":

Meanwhile Ruzzian toilet (outside Moscow, of course)



30,000,000 people in Russia are not connected to centralized sewage systems –despite

There are simple figures - average monthly wage in Russia vs that in Ukraine - which was always higher in Russia. If you watch POW's interviews - people state their salaries, I envy them a bit.
There were simple cases - Ukrainians going to work to Russia right from western Ukraine, where they are definitely not pro-Russian anyway.

As for toilets? If somebody has a "better shitter" in Ukraine - it's not because of Ukraine, it's because of he has personally invested into having a more comfortable life. Why don't russians do that? Probably they expect it to be done by the state and not by themselves. Does this show Ukraine in any way superior? No. It only shows Ukrainians that are used to the fact of anarchy and effective absence of state power.

I can pinpoint you places in Kyiv (not the "outskirts") where there are no connections to sewers at all. So-called "private sector" (built during USSR mostly; perhaps some were rebuilt nowdays) - tens of meters from multi-floor buildings built during USSR and Ukraine rule has no sewer connection. The house I own in one of oblasts - has "central" water (built by local community) and natural gas (same case) and everyone has a "shit collector" of their own - with ordering of shit-transporter "barrel" periodically and stuff .

 I can fully agree with you that Ukraine needs better toilets - an many, many better other things. What would you choose to get there? (a) be under the Muscovian regime - which is not ever going to invest in Ukraine, but rather convert it in another territory to get mercenaries at a cheap or (b) Try  to be more like Poland - which joined the EU and got this:



I guess now you may understand what Ukraine is fighting for (hint: is not for toilets).

Moving on to news, the latest is about economic sanctions. These have now been increased in several ways:
- A shit-metric-ton of pressure on banks. Queues of people have been noted trying to get usd -  I do give relative value to this information, but the volatility of the Ruble vs usd is 10% in a day during the last week. This means uncertainty - some believe that sanctions are going to have a deep economic effect.

- The last G7 summit in Italy is a discussion on whether the interests of the Ruzzian frozen assets are going to fund Ukraine's war effort and pay the Ruzzian debt or if it is actually the Ruzzian frozen assets that will be partially confiscated. A figure of 50 Billion has been mentioned. To put it in perspective, this is one year of US aid on top of the existing aid.

These seems a bit more serious than what has been done to date, so I would say that the frog is getting further heated. I really hope that Putin has a very good measure of what is the breaking point - a rogue Ruzzia is not the best scenario for the world.

Edited to add: It seems Ruzzian banks are not offering exchange services in US and Euro and have stopped withdrawals. Moscow exchange down 15% in a day??

[...]

There are rumors about huge numbers of decoys/false targets that Russia deployed, but both
sides keep shut about it, Russia because they want to continue Ukraine to waste precious weapons,
and Ukraine out of embarrassment and of course for PR effect

[...]

I see, this is the new theory then:

a) The western weapons do not exist.
b) The western weapons exist, but they are destroyed before reaching their positions.
c) The western weapons reach the positions, but "do not make a difference".
c) The wester weapons reach their positions, make a difference, but "do not work".
And the latest: (d) The western weapons work, but Ruzzia is so smart that they "only hit decoys". These decoys are so wonderful that they have radar emissions, leave tracks and have secondary explosions just as if they were real.

As an alternative hypothesis, the Ruzzia air defence is getting blasted systematically, possibly because Ukraine does not want to loose too many f16s.

[letterman1]

If only there was an end to this madness, we need peace.

[paxmao]

Edited to add: Moscow stock unreachable, check for yourself

https://www.moex.com/en

Not to mention the website that hold the account depository guarantees... this is looking like banks collapsing in Ruzzia so a "corralito" is on.


An agreement between the US and Ukraine was signed at G7, including the supply of squadrons of F16, supplies and further Patriot bateries. One squadron is 15 planes minimum, so this is as minimum 30 f16 plus supplies / ordinance.

On the economic front...

https://www.ft.com/content/50d6bcd1-f1f6-41a1-bb26-a5482654883f

Russia halts foreign exchange trading as US sanctions sow confusion. Washington’s latest curbs force transactions in dollars or euros off central exchange


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   https://www.ft.com/content/50d6bcd1-f1f6-41a1-bb26-a5482654883f

   Russia’s main exchange has halted trading in dollars and euros after a sharp escalation in US sanctions targeted the remaining links between the Russian financial system and foreign banks.

Russia’s central bank said exchange rates for the rouble will now reflect interbank transactions, after US sanctions announced on Wednesday on the Moscow Exchange (Moex), Russia’s oldest marketplace, forced trades off the central market.

The changes mean that pricing of the rouble will become more opaque, affecting its convertibility and raising costs for importers and exporters after sweeping sanctions that the US Treasury described as targeting Russia’s “war economy”.

For banks in countries from China to Turkey that are still transacting with Russia, the measures raise the risk that so-called secondary sanctions will cut them off from the US financial system, such as losing access to US dollars.

“Imagine a medieval town where the central market shuts down. There will still be farmers looking to sell food and villagers looking to buy, they just have to meet in some corners all over town,” said Janis Kluge, a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “This is what is to happen in Russia.”

In other words, if you are Ruzzian, you would be buying usd in the black market. If you do deals not just with Ruzzia, but with someone subject to sanctions, you are under sanctions too.

Morozov.... Su34 I believe... https://x.com/i/status/1801629416545521924

with an extra of substation...https://x.com/i/status/1801640741178908977

[BADecker]

^^^ Don't have to buy USD on the black market. BRICS joined BIS (Bank for International Settlements). Now even Ukrainians can trade in Rubles - Ukraine banks to BIS to BRICS. The Ukraine/US/Nato government control in Ukraine is falling apart.

[paxmao]

^^^ Don't have to buy USD on the black market. BRICS joined BIS (Bank for International Settlements). Now even Ukrainians can trade in Rubles - Ukraine banks to BIS to BRICS. The Ukraine/US/Nato government control in Ukraine is falling apart.

That's dumBAss parallel universe news, but meanwhile on planet earth...

https://www.newsweek.com/moscow-stock-exchange-trade-halted-ruble-collapse-sanctions-1912161

Russians lined up to purchase U.S. dollars after the Moscow Exchange enforced an immediate suspension of trading in dollars and euros in response to fresh U.S. sanctions, a video circulating on social media appears to show.

Russia's central bank said Wednesday that exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in U.S. dollars and euros were suspended effective June 13 "due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group." It added that over-the-counter trading data would be used to set official exchange rates for the currencies.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/rouble-plummets-bankruptcy-of-russian-economy/ar-BB1oaLoP?item=themed_featuredapps_enableD?loadIn=defaultBrowser

New US sanctions against Russia led to the immediate suspension of dollar and euro trading on the country's main financial market, the Moscow Stock Exchange. 

The Russian stock exchange and the Russian central bank issued swift statements, barely an hour after Washington announced new sanctions. Those sanctions aim to cut off the flow of money and goods meant to support Russia's war in Ukraine.

So keep pushing the agenda. You already had to take a high-G manoeuvre when Trump stated that Ukraine is actually important for the US. You next 360 high-G is going to be when Trump decides that trying to weaken the US dollar is not only impossible, but vey likely to get him out of office (if he ever gets to office in the first place, which is nothing granted)

[Betwrong]

~

Thanks for your loose and disconnected comment. It helps everyone understand that you have nothing to add to this conversation but somehow your brain feels compelled to say something like this. ~

I don't understand your hostility. I'm on your side, mate. Being a gambler I said, from my own experience, that Putin's strategy of martingale is a desperate strategy and he will lose everything soon. What's wrong with that? (If you think that I posted that to spam for my sig campaign, you can check the rules for my campaign and see that posts in "Politics & Society" are not counted).

I think people who are standing against Putin's aggression should be more supportive to each other.