who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Hispo]

~snip~
Obama was quite a very likeable politician, to be honest.
Granted, his skin color raised several comments among voters, but even those within the Democrat party who were not ready to vote for a black man fell for his charisma.

It will be matter of time before the United States manages to get a woman as president, the left is getting more progressive as time passes, but Trump has dragged the more moderates towards the right, as it stands now the Democrat party would not take chances with a black woman as candidate until they somehow ended the influence Trump sow within the GOP and some former moderates.

Those who are still moderates could choose not to vote.

To be honest, I'm kinda waiting for a movie or series to be made of the current American political system, house of cards was good, but we need a newer version of it.

It's all like a show these days. Any time I hear an American politician from back in the days it feels like another country completely.

For example, listen to the John F. Kennedy Moon Speech and compare that to a modern day speech.

It would take many years before there is some good movie about the current political weather in the United States, because what we are seeing is still fresh enough to be considered news, and noones goes to the movie theater to watch news.

If anything we can find documentary films about the first administration of Trump and also about his final days in charge, particularly on his role on the Capitol riots when Trump is politically deceased and people won't worry about him anymore, then Hollywood will go through the hassle of producing a movie.

[Sithara007]

After a brief bump, Ramaswamy is slipping in the opinion polls once again. He made a strategic mistake by admitting that he would realistically aim for the VP post with Trump. After that statement, a lot of the GOP voters stopped taking him seriously for the POTUS nomination. He was polling in double digits before that, and now he is polling 5% to 7%, with DeSantis gaining the most. Anyway, now it is almost clear that Trump will be the GOP nominee. Second placed DeSantis is far behind, and unless Trump gets disqualified on some technicality, there will be no chance for anyone else from the GOP.

[Hispo]

After a brief bump, Ramaswamy is slipping in the opinion polls once again. He made a strategic mistake by admitting that he would realistically aim for the VP post with Trump. After that statement, a lot of the GOP voters stopped taking him seriously for the POTUS nomination. He was polling in double digits before that, and now he is polling 5% to 7%, with DeSantis gaining the most. Anyway, now it is almost clear that Trump will be the GOP nominee. Second placed DeSantis is far behind, and unless Trump gets disqualified on some technicality, there will be no chance for anyone else from the GOP.

I think we both can agree that to try to disqualify Trump instead trying to defeat him in the ballot would be quite dangerous for the democracy of USA; out there there are millions of people who genuinely believe Trump is being politically prosecuted, kicking him out the race would serve for him to radicalize his supporters even further. not even mention some foreign countries and adversaries would use such precedent to negatively criticize the political system in the USA.

Also, who casinos would manage such escenario for those who had already put money in the table in favor of Trump?
Would it be taken as a loss by Trump in favor of Biden even though he did not actually face him?

[beerlover]

To be honest, I'm kinda waiting for a movie or series to be made of the current American political system, house of cards was good, but we need a newer version of it.

It's all like a show these days. Any time I hear an American politician from back in the days it feels like another country completely.

For example, listen to the John F. Kennedy Moon Speech and compare that to a modern day speech.

I mean the world has evolved as well, that is the main reason. The guy who is 70 years old today, was only 40 years old when Bill Cliton was the president, so it is not like we are living the same period, sure Bill Clinton is still younger than Biden and Trump, but the requirements to get the vote has changed. Think about how many new voters we have now, and how many of the voters in the 90's has unfortunately passed away since.

The culture evolves, and in order to get votes, politicians started to be more and more extreme. You either have to be a ring wing hate everything and do what you tell people to not do type of racist, or you have to be pronoun nazi who is ok with child abuse on hormone therapy. You can2t be someone who is sane and say "maybe both of them are bad?" because if you do that, you do not get votes.

[Sithara007]

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Also, who casinos would manage such escenario for those who had already put money in the table in favor of Trump?
Would it be taken as a loss by Trump in favor of Biden even though he did not actually face him?

Gambling rules are very clear on this. You are making a bet in favor of Donald Trump, for his win in the 2024 POTUS election. If he doesn't win the elections, you lose your bet. As simple as that. In case Trump doesn't become the President in 2024, irrespective of whatever reason, you are going to lose the amount you bet on. The online casinos doesn't mind whether he gets defeated in the elections, or whether he gets disqualified. And this is definitely one of the reasons why Trump's odds are worse than that of Biden, despite the fact that he is leading in most of the polls.

[redsun114]

I also think that the problem was with Hillary Clinton and not the fact that she was a woman. She is the poster child for nepotism, trying to be the president just because her husband was once the president?

Like what qualifications did she had before she started to work in the politics? Only her husband, she used her network (which is the biggest network in the world due to her husband being the president of the USA) and got a position and grew from there. She never even deserved her own nomination, she got the nomination due to DNC electing her, not the people, if we look at the popular vote inside DNC, it was Bernie Sanders who got more votes actually, and only a few people decided Hillary should be the nominee compared to millions more people wanting Bernie.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I also think that the problem was with Hillary Clinton and not the fact that she was a woman. She is the poster child for nepotism, trying to be the president just because her husband was once the president?

Like what qualifications did she had before she started to work in the politics? Only her husband, she used her network (which is the biggest network in the world due to her husband being the president of the USA) and got a position and grew from there. She never even deserved her own nomination, she got the nomination due to DNC electing her, not the people, if we look at the popular vote inside DNC, it was Bernie Sanders who got more votes actually, and only a few people decided Hillary should be the nominee compared to millions more people wanting Bernie.

Well, the case of women in power, because I don't see it in the USA, the case that some countries have become in the oder of Countries , well for me they have not done very well, well with the exception of Croatia, but It is because in that beautiful country there is a type of Organization and protocols that are very different from the rest, people are not so bothered by politics and there are characters who are very representative to each perform their own function and are specialists in their field, In the case of Hillary, we must recognize that Donald Trump at the time made a tremendous masterful move on her, in addition to leaving her there , with nothing to do , so this Completely silenced her, now, as good analysts we know that she could For anything in these US elections, but one thing I am sure of, if Trump manages to have the courage to be a presidential candidate, he will be the strongest of all, and be careful, if he wins the presidency, it is something that can Happen and not I know if it's positive.

Well , honestly for me this new political contest will be wrapped up between Trunmp and Biden, and it will be one of the hardest lessons and I am sure that one president will win by a minimal difference over the other, because both are very good, they have many supporters, fans, and as long as those who really support us can make a difference here, then we do see that they can make a difference in 2024, since only the people of the USA can define it, or what I have seen is that Trump is much more radical than Biden himself, so I think he could win just because of that, Biden is a more modest president, who does anything to avoid a conflict, although I say something, what happened in Russia and Ukraine was very Orchestrated by Biden and then he What he did was that it wasn't his fault, so I thought that he was going to support the president of Ukraine and then it was said that nothing, that there was nothing to see, so in this order of ideas Things can turn out for Better or worse, which It may be that this is Better for the people of the USA.

[nullama]

~snip~
I mean the world has evolved as well, that is the main reason. The guy who is 70 years old today, was only 40 years old when Bill Cliton was the president, so it is not like we are living the same period, sure Bill Clinton is still younger than Biden and Trump, but the requirements to get the vote has changed. Think about how many new voters we have now, and how many of the voters in the 90's has unfortunately passed away since.

The culture evolves, and in order to get votes, politicians started to be more and more extreme. You either have to be a ring wing hate everything and do what you tell people to not do type of racist, or you have to be pronoun nazi who is ok with child abuse on hormone therapy. You can2t be someone who is sane and say "maybe both of them are bad?" because if you do that, you do not get votes.

The thing is that it's not always necessary to go in that polarized direction. That's what has happened in the US, but in other countries there is still some level of conversation that can be had.

I think the US is one of the most divided countries in the world right now, and social media is just fueling that every day.

The tensions that currently exist in the US are really high, everyone seems to hate someone else in the US these days. No conversations are had, just labels and shouting, us vs them, etc.

Quite sad to see what once was an amazing country turning into what it is today.

[Hirose UK]

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Also, who casinos would manage such escenario for those who had already put money in the table in favor of Trump?
Would it be taken as a loss by Trump in favor of Biden even though he did not actually face him?

Gambling rules are very clear on this. You are making a bet in favor of Donald Trump, for his win in the 2024 POTUS election. If he doesn't win the elections, you lose your bet. As simple as that. In case Trump doesn't become the President in 2024, irrespective of whatever reason, you are going to lose the amount you bet on. The online casinos doesn't mind whether he gets defeated in the elections, or whether he gets disqualified. And this is definitely one of the reasons why Trump's odds are worse than that of Biden, despite the fact that he is leading in most of the polls.

It's true that the casino manager will only take the bettor money when the choice loses and pay the winning money if the choice is correct but here the casino never cares what option is superior because they only offer betting options and are in business to make money.

But by the way if you compare the two it is true that Biden has a better chance than Trump and many people are starting to doubt that Trump will be able to win the election even though such chances are not really guaranteed but somehow Biden is starting to become the favorite.

[Betwrong]

~snip~
A friend of a friend of mine was saying Trump would win the election and I was saying no way, Hillary would win. It was long time ago, back in the 2016. I was so confident that I accepted his bet, $100(I was a bit drunk), and was expecting to win the money. We all know what happened. Since then I'm betting only what I can afford to lose even if I "know" the outcome "for sure". And don't gamble when you are drunk, guys.

Yeah, I think most people were not expecting Trump to be president back then.

Now it's a different story because there's a precedent.

We will have to simply wait and see what happens.

This has more twists than a Venezuelan telenovela.

The thing is that Trump back then had the advantage of facing Hillary, who is a despicable character within the American politics, to be honest. Even democrats were aware of her being the lesser of two evils, added to the long tradition of the presidency of the United States being a position for men and not women.

Whether the American left wants to admit it or not, the average person there is not yet prepared to give their vote of confidence to a woman, so back in 2020 they went with Biden for the nomination. I have seen people around internet talking about the possibility of Kamala Harris nomination for the democrat party in the future, but that is very unlikely, the party wont risk another 2016 situation in the expected future, specially with the tendency of the Republican party to push forward men. Trump happens to be the most eccentric and  populist of them in these latest years, breaking precedent after precedent.

Yeah, but can he win? He could be a popular showman, no doubt about that, but people are smarter these days than to elect a guy like him as president.

Btw, something has changed recently. Desantis was kicked out from the top 3 by Vivek Ramaswamy:



I didn't know him before. Why do people think he has a chance?

[Hispo]

~snip~
A friend of a friend of mine was saying Trump would win the election and I was saying no way, Hillary would win. It was long time ago, back in the 2016. I was so confident that I accepted his bet, $100(I was a bit drunk), and was expecting to win the money. We all know what happened. Since then I'm betting only what I can afford to lose even if I "know" the outcome "for sure". And don't gamble when you are drunk, guys.

Yeah, I think most people were not expecting Trump to be president back then.

Now it's a different story because there's a precedent.

We will have to simply wait and see what happens.

This has more twists than a Venezuelan telenovela.

The thing is that Trump back then had the advantage of facing Hillary, who is a despicable character within the American politics, to be honest. Even democrats were aware of her being the lesser of two evils, added to the long tradition of the presidency of the United States being a position for men and not women.

Whether the American left wants to admit it or not, the average person there is not yet prepared to give their vote of confidence to a woman, so back in 2020 they went with Biden for the nomination. I have seen people around internet talking about the possibility of Kamala Harris nomination for the democrat party in the future, but that is very unlikely, the party wont risk another 2016 situation in the expected future, specially with the tendency of the Republican party to push forward men. Trump happens to be the most eccentric and  populist of them in these latest years, breaking precedent after precedent.

Yeah, but can he win? He could be a popular showman, no doubt about that, but people are smarter these days than to elect a guy like him as president.

Btw, something has changed recently. Desantis was kicked out from the top 3 by Vivek Ramaswamy:



I didn't know him before. Why do people think he has a chance?

I would wish I could agree with you on people being smarter than 2016, but unfortunately I think otherwise. There has been enough time since Trump got first elected for more people get trapped in this political rabbit thole do not longer vote based on their political intuition or values but based on the personality cult of a man.

Also, quite interesting De Santis got displaced off the betting table on Stake that way. It is just another sample on how bad his presidential run is going, unfortunately to him he does not have even a fraction of Trump's personality and even if Trump was going to be disqualified off the race, Ramaswamy could kick De Santi's ass if knows how to recover from his latest under-performance.

De Santis should have waited for 2028, when Trump was already off his political career, imprisoned or as the new dictator of USA.

[slapper]

✂✂✂✂
Also, who casinos would manage such escenario for those who had already put money in the table in favor of Trump?
Would it be taken as a loss by Trump in favor of Biden even though he did not actually face him?

Gambling rules are very clear on this. You are making a bet in favor of Donald Trump, for his win in the 2024 POTUS election. If he doesn't win the elections, you lose your bet. As simple as that. In case Trump doesn't become the President in 2024, irrespective of whatever reason, you are going to lose the amount you bet on. The online casinos doesn't mind whether he gets defeated in the elections, or whether he gets disqualified. And this is definitely one of the reasons why Trump's odds are worse than that of Biden, despite the fact that he is leading in most of the polls.

It's true that the casino manager will only take the bettor money when the choice loses and pay the winning money if the choice is correct but here the casino never cares what option is superior because they only offer betting options and are in business to make money.

But by the way if you compare the two it is true that Biden has a better chance than Trump and many people are starting to doubt that Trump will be able to win the election even though such chances are not really guaranteed but somehow Biden is starting to become the favorite.

Biden's stats are looking up. Yet, isn't it odd how sometimes the underdog story appeals more to people, irrespective of the odds? Trump, with all the noise and pomp, versus Biden's more tranquil approach, can make the political spectrum look like a blockbuster movie versus a documentary. Biden might be the favorite for some, but he's so... well, let's just say he's so low-key. Sometimes, don't we all just crave a bit more drama? Odd logic, perhaps, but intriguing nonetheless

[Hispo]

✂✂✂✂
Also, who casinos would manage such escenario for those who had already put money in the table in favor of Trump?
Would it be taken as a loss by Trump in favor of Biden even though he did not actually face him?

Gambling rules are very clear on this. You are making a bet in favor of Donald Trump, for his win in the 2024 POTUS election. If he doesn't win the elections, you lose your bet. As simple as that. In case Trump doesn't become the President in 2024, irrespective of whatever reason, you are going to lose the amount you bet on. The online casinos doesn't mind whether he gets defeated in the elections, or whether he gets disqualified. And this is definitely one of the reasons why Trump's odds are worse than that of Biden, despite the fact that he is leading in most of the polls.

It's true that the casino manager will only take the bettor money when the choice loses and pay the winning money if the choice is correct but here the casino never cares what option is superior because they only offer betting options and are in business to make money.

But by the way if you compare the two it is true that Biden has a better chance than Trump and many people are starting to doubt that Trump will be able to win the election even though such chances are not really guaranteed but somehow Biden is starting to become the favorite.

Biden's stats are looking up. Yet, isn't it odd how sometimes the underdog story appeals more to people, irrespective of the odds? Trump, with all the noise and pomp, versus Biden's more tranquil approach, can make the political spectrum look like a blockbuster movie versus a documentary. Biden might be the favorite for some, but he's so... well, let's just say he's so low-key. Sometimes, don't we all just crave a bit more drama? Odd logic, perhaps, but intriguing nonetheless

I believe that the low-key profile of Biden may actually be an advantage for him. After all the political insanity we have witnessed to take place in the United States during these latest years, perhaps an important percentage of people have grown tired of always being bombarded with political news and drama, they may see in Biden a chance to get back to simpler times, when the Republican party was about small government, less taxes and defending freedom, rather what it has become today.

Granted, the Democrat party has also devolved into something which is quite different from we remember of it from the mid 2000s, but at least they do not incite violence. People can grow tired enough of politics to try to ignore news, but they are still aware of the importance of their participation so they continue to vote, that is part of the demographics whom Biden appeals to.

In the end, is not an ideal government one where people does not need to worry on politics, but rather live their life and enjoy it?
One of the reasons Biden is still in this run, despite of his passiveness.

[Sithara007]

Biden's stats are looking up. Yet, isn't it odd how sometimes the underdog story appeals more to people, irrespective of the odds? Trump, with all the noise and pomp, versus Biden's more tranquil approach, can make the political spectrum look like a blockbuster movie versus a documentary. Biden might be the favorite for some, but he's so... well, let's just say he's so low-key. Sometimes, don't we all just crave a bit more drama? Odd logic, perhaps, but intriguing nonetheless

You are right. Although opinion polls were favoring Biden back in 2020, a lot of people were saying that there are undercurrents in favor of Trump. That never happened (unlike the case in 2016). Back in 2016, Trump's support (especially in rust belt states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania) was underestimated. And in 2020, Biden's support was underestimated and I am sure that this remains true to this day. A good metric to measure this would be the midterms of 2022. Democrats did much better than what was expected from them.

[Hispo]

Biden's stats are looking up. Yet, isn't it odd how sometimes the underdog story appeals more to people, irrespective of the odds? Trump, with all the noise and pomp, versus Biden's more tranquil approach, can make the political spectrum look like a blockbuster movie versus a documentary. Biden might be the favorite for some, but he's so... well, let's just say he's so low-key. Sometimes, don't we all just crave a bit more drama? Odd logic, perhaps, but intriguing nonetheless

You are right. Although opinion polls were favoring Biden back in 2020, a lot of people were saying that there are undercurrents in favor of Trump. That never happened (unlike the case in 2016). Back in 2016, Trump's support (especially in rust belt states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania) was underestimated. And in 2020, Biden's support was underestimated and I am sure that this remains true to this day. A good metric to measure this would be the midterms of 2022. Democrats did much better than what was expected from them.

I would wish there was another election in USA before the presidential one, to be honest. Those midterm results were more enlighting than any poll could aspire to be, perhaps if there was some kind of minor election then I could have a way to see a more clearer picture of the actual heat map of the politics in the United States.

By the way, I wonder if someday the system of election colleges will be abolished in USA and select their leader through direct voting instead. It would be controversial, since it would be obviously great for democrats.

[Sithara007]

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By the way, I wonder if someday the system of election colleges will be abolished in USA and select their leader through direct voting instead. It would be controversial, since it would be obviously great for democrats.

LOL.. this was discussed lot many times in the past, and we know that it is not going to change. Obviously Democrats would prefer electing the president through the popular vote rather than electoral college. But the supporters of the current system claims that it makes sure that smaller states such as Arizona and Nevada are not taken lightly during the electoral process. But there is a catch though. There is an argument that a lot of Republicans refrain from voting in deep blue states such as California and New York. Under the current system, their votes are not being valued. But if the system changes, then more of them will take part in the elections and the GOP candidate will get more support than expected.

[nullama]

~snip~
I would wish there was another election in USA before the presidential one, to be honest. Those midterm results were more enlighting than any poll could aspire to be, perhaps if there was some kind of minor election then I could have a way to see a more clearer picture of the actual heat map of the politics in the United States.

By the way, I wonder if someday the system of election colleges will be abolished in USA and select their leader through direct voting instead. It would be controversial, since it would be obviously great for democrats.

There are more alternative ways of voting though, I think one of the best ones is where the vote is mandatory and you vote by ranking your preferences.

So, if your number 1 doesn't get elected, then your option number 2 can influence the results, and so on.

It's much better than just voting for one candidate.

Here's the system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranked_voting

[FinneysTrueVision]

Yeah, but can he win? He could be a popular showman, no doubt about that, but people are smarter these days than to elect a guy like him as president.

Btw, something has changed recently. Desantis was kicked out from the top 3 by Vivek Ramaswamy:



I didn't know him before. Why do people think he has a chance?

There is always a new flavor of the month in the early days of the campaign which gets a lot of media attention. First it was DeSantis, then Ramaswamy, and now Nikki Haley is starting to rise in the polls. Realistically, Trump's lead appears to be insurmountable and the primaries should be over very quickly.

Regardless of who gets the Republican nomination, recent CNN polling is not looking so favorable towards Biden. Even Chris Christie could beat him in a direct face off.

[Sithara007]

There are more alternative ways of voting though, I think one of the best ones is where the vote is mandatory and you vote by ranking your preferences.

So, if your number 1 doesn't get elected, then your option number 2 can influence the results, and so on.

It's much better than just voting for one candidate.

Here's the system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranked_voting

I am not a big fan of the preferred voting system. I have seen how this system works in American states such as Maine and it just makes the election a lot more complicated with lots of room for manipulation. Rather than this crap, I would prefer the current system (electoral college). The disadvantage with the current system is that it restricts actual elections to 7-8 swing states. It is almost like there are no elections in other states, as they are either deep-red, or deep-blue. So not much attention is given to those states. But then, the popular vote system also has its own flaws.

[FanEagle]

LOL.. this was discussed lot many times in the past, and we know that it is not going to change. Obviously Democrats would prefer electing the president through the popular vote rather than electoral college. But the supporters of the current system claims that it makes sure that smaller states such as Arizona and Nevada are not taken lightly during the electoral process. But there is a catch though. There is an argument that a lot of Republicans refrain from voting in deep blue states such as California and New York. Under the current system, their votes are not being valued. But if the system changes, then more of them will take part in the elections and the GOP candidate will get more support than expected.

Then why does republicans go against it? If they believe that they are going to be able to get a lot more votes, they should want this change, correct? It's obvious that the popular vote is vastly different, Biden for example got 7 million more votes, and he barely won in some states, could have been a second term for Trump if there was like 50k more votes in right places give or take.

So, you think that if popular vote was the result, there would be 7 more million votes casted for Trump? SEVEN million more? From places like New York and California? That is like a hilarious joke, it would be impossible. The reason why republican senators, congressman and even supreme court which is filled with republicans, do not want popular vote because there would not be a 1% chance republican candidate will ever win.