who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Sithara007]

I think wikipedia has some issues, but the fact that anyone around the world can edit it (in theory as some articles are locked), they provide a more nuanced view of the world.

Also I like that you can basically translate concepts by changing the wikipedia language of the page.

LOL.. I used to be one of the most active Wikipedia editors during the early days (15-16 years ago). And I have seen how it changed over the course of time. During 2010s, it was taken over by left-wing cabal. A lot of articles related to politics, religion and climate change has been edited by these users and you will find a lot of inaccurate information with such articles. And with each passing year, the left-wing manipulation seems to be getting bigger with Wikipedia. I would not consider it as one of the authentic or reliable sources as far as politics is concerned.

[nullama]

~snip~

LOL.. I used to be one of the most active Wikipedia editors during the early days (15-16 years ago). And I have seen how it changed over the course of time. During 2010s, it was taken over by left-wing cabal. A lot of articles related to politics, religion and climate change has been edited by these users and you will find a lot of inaccurate information with such articles. And with each passing year, the left-wing manipulation seems to be getting bigger with Wikipedia. I would not consider it as one of the authentic or reliable sources as far as politics is concerned.

That is true for basically anything really.

Every single source of information has some kind of bias.

The key is to use different kinds of sources, and wikipedia is just one of them.

At the end of the day reality is more  complicated than what people think in the beginning

[Hispo]

Lately, I have seen some political commentators to opinion on the Trump campaign suggesting Fox and other conservative media to cease to hold Republican debates, because Trump is he already the leading force and they all should focus on attacking the established democrat administration of Joe Biden.

While we all can agree Trump and his campaign team have a fair point on them having numbers on their side, I don't think it would be favorable for Democracy just to skip debates and just leave polls to be the north on where the power scale is supposed to tilt.

Polls have showed not to be completely accurate in the past, so Trumps argument have some flaws. I would actually like to see more democrat candidates and their debates.

[Iroh]

Lately, I have seen some political commentators to opinion on the Trump campaign suggesting Fox and other conservative media to cease to hold Republican debates, because Trump is he already the leading force and they all should focus on attacking the established democrat administration of Joe Biden.

While we all can agree Trump and his campaign team have a fair point on them having numbers on their side, I don't think it would be favorable for Democracy just to skip debates and just leave polls to be the north on where the power scale is supposed to tilt.

Polls have showed not to be completely accurate in the past, so Trumps argument have some flaws. I would actually like to see more democrat candidates and their debates.

Being ahead in poll numbers doesn’t exclude one from debates amongst other republican candidates vying for the top job. If anything, that should have encouraged him.Trumps point don’t hold much water but that didn’t stop him as he was a no show at both the republican presidential debates.

Why doesn’t he want to talk and defend his policies amongst his own party members of whom a staggering number almost worship him? He obviously prefers to give long uninteresting tales that has probably been heard a lot of times by people who care to listen.

If only republicans were more focused on creating and supporting policies that would make a difference thereby attracting new voters. They would prefer to attack and call out everything that’s going wrong while of course, making promises to fix everything if they’re elected.

[Sithara007]

That is true for basically anything really.

Every single source of information has some kind of bias.

The key is to use different kinds of sources, and wikipedia is just one of them.

At the end of the day reality is more  complicated than what people think in the beginning

Well.. I would agree with that. Nowadays I am mostly dependent on Twitter to get day-to-day news. It has a wide mix of sources with left-wing, right-wing and center political bias, unlike the main-stream media and social media channels such as Facebook and YouTube where you will not find anything other than extreme-left. That said, Wikipedia is more unreliable than any of the other left-wing sources. I have noticed multiple times that the admins refuse to remove incorrect information, even if users point it out with reliable references.

[nullama]

~snip~
Well.. I would agree with that. Nowadays I am mostly dependent on Twitter to get day-to-day news. It has a wide mix of sources with left-wing, right-wing and center political bias, unlike the main-stream media and social media channels such as Facebook and YouTube where you will not find anything other than extreme-left. That said, Wikipedia is more unreliable than any of the other left-wing sources. I have noticed multiple times that the admins refuse to remove incorrect information, even if users point it out with reliable references.

The thing with those sites like Facebook, YouTube, etc, is that they are not the same for everyone.

What you see there is dependent on your viewing history, what you are subscribed to, what you have liked, and many more things.

So, I don't think you can put a label in general to those sites, as they will show right wing stuff to some people and left wing stuff to others, and so on

[Hirose UK]

Lately, I have seen some political commentators to opinion on the Trump campaign suggesting Fox and other conservative media to cease to hold Republican debates, because Trump is he already the leading force and they all should focus on attacking the established democrat administration of Joe Biden.

While we all can agree Trump and his campaign team have a fair point on them having numbers on their side, I don't think it would be favorable for Democracy just to skip debates and just leave polls to be the north on where the power scale is supposed to tilt.

Polls have showed not to be completely accurate in the past, so Trumps argument have some flaws. I would actually like to see more democrat candidates and their debates.

So with what Trump is doing won't this actually cause problems or some kind of bad controversial conversation about Trump behavior?
I sometimes feel surprised by Trump who clearly has an advantage but he still does things that might damage his image or reduce his followers but who knows this is democratic world and Trump has the right to every action he takes only when there is mistake he be responsible for what he says.

In several countries opinion polls between legislative candidates participating in elections are always held simultaneously and there is fairness there where at each event there will be mediator or presenter who does not side with any of the members of parliament who are legislative candidates.
Maybe Trump has different thoughts so there is resistance and expression to the media to be able to do the same thing to Biden.

Debates would always occur at events like that and it seemed like if they could accept every difference of opinion then it would never be big problem.

[Sithara007]

The thing with those sites like Facebook, YouTube, etc, is that they are not the same for everyone.

What you see there is dependent on your viewing history, what you are subscribed to, what you have liked, and many more things.

So, I don't think you can put a label in general to those sites, as they will show right wing stuff to some people and left wing stuff to others, and so on

Well.. I am not talking about advertisements and targeted content. YouTube has a history of deleting channels that deal with anything even remotely right-wing and Facebook is also close behind when it comes to censoring right-wing content. At this point, Twitter is the only social media channel that follows content neutrality. And it happened only because Elon Musk succeeded in purchasing Twitter and kicking out ghouls such as Vijaya Gadde, Yoel Roth and Parag Agrawal. And even after these people were fired, the left-wing cabal tried to pressurize Elon into reversing his decision, by indulging in various boycott campaigns.

[Hispo]

Lately, I have seen some political commentators to opinion on the Trump campaign suggesting Fox and other conservative media to cease to hold Republican debates, because Trump is he already the leading force and they all should focus on attacking the established democrat administration of Joe Biden.

While we all can agree Trump and his campaign team have a fair point on them having numbers on their side, I don't think it would be favorable for Democracy just to skip debates and just leave polls to be the north on where the power scale is supposed to tilt.

Polls have showed not to be completely accurate in the past, so Trumps argument have some flaws. I would actually like to see more democrat candidates and their debates.

Being ahead in poll numbers doesn’t exclude one from debates amongst other republican candidates vying for the top job. If anything, that should have encouraged him.Trumps point don’t hold much water but that didn’t stop him as he was a no show at both the republican presidential debates.

Why doesn’t he want to talk and defend his policies amongst his own party members of whom a staggering number almost worship him? He obviously prefers to give long uninteresting tales that has probably been heard a lot of times by people who care to listen.

If only republicans were more focused on creating and supporting policies that would make a difference thereby attracting new voters. They would prefer to attack and call out everything that’s going wrong while of course, making promises to fix everything if they’re elected.

It depends whom you ask, in the opinion of Trump, he does not have anything to earn from partaking in those debates. Since he is already winning so in the best case scenario he gets more poll percentage in his favor (which he does not need anyways) in the worst case scenario he loses points of advantage, so he may have decided to play safe and stay at home.

Also, those things you mention about policy and government it is something the Republican party has had a problem with for years, they seem to have lost their north, it is not about policy or governing under a project for the country. Now if one wants to be a seat in the Senate or chamber in the GOP, one needs to talk about Jewish space lasers, showing off pictures of the president (naked) during hearings, etc.

[STT]

Wiki is useful for a recall of offical numbers and facts, I woudnt rely on it too much for things like politics except purely by referencing and storing links to other sources and articles.  For plain straight record of a timeline thats fine, I think thats all in its remit but politics is a lens which distorts everything it influences so its a given Wiki has bias just because people have bias in their views.   We cant even report GDP and inflation without some bias entering from how growth is viewed vs inflation.  
   Twitter or X which I think is a worse name but its recently got a bit better for forcing all users to submit to a information intervention on any views.   That kind of thing popped up during Covid when people started inventing that radio waves like 5G are a viral agent and other nonsense so its quite surprising Elon now encourages people to interact or interfere with views not in line with known sources.    If that was not possible at all before he should be commended for advancing the website quite considerably just from that one new feature, X would be more balanced in this regard then websites which suppress views of readers who disagree and can state firmly why OP is wrong etc.

https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/viral-claim-falsely-asserts-that-covid-19-is-due-to-5g-technology-rollout-not-a-virus/

[Sithara007]

The poll aggregate from Realclearpolitics clearly shows that Donald Trump is well ahead of Joe Biden at this point:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

And more importantly, some of the polls are now showing Trump ahead of Biden in blue-leaning states such as Pennsylvania. The migrant situation at Southern border seems to be costing the Democrats a lot of votes. But at the same time, the Republican infighting has given them some breathing space. Kevin McCarthy was kicked out as the House speaker yesterday, and GOP seems to be in complete disarray.

[FanEagle]

If Biden is senile and can't think straight and old fool, then Trump should not have any trouble facing him, after all trump is "smart and charismatic" right? So, why would he fear going against Biden? Lol. I will tell you why, because if Trump goes against Biden, the whole world would see how Biden is not senile and he is still capable of running a nation and Trump is not, that's the thing that will help him a lot and I am guessing that Biden would gain a ton of votes, along with Trump losing a lot of people.

Those do not mean the same thing, Trump losing doesn't equal Biden getting them, people could just not vote as well. In any case, the "idea" of Trump is better than trump himself, people like the idea of him, but when he starts to talk, people get cold feet about it. So, if Trump wants to really win this, I highly suggest he doesn't campaign, and I mean it, if he doesn't campaign at all, he has a very high chance of winning the race without a doubt.

[Betwrong]

The poll aggregate from Realclearpolitics clearly shows that Donald Trump is well ahead of Joe Biden at this point:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

And more importantly, some of the polls are now showing Trump ahead of Biden in blue-leaning states such as Pennsylvania. The migrant situation at Southern border seems to be costing the Democrats a lot of votes. But at the same time, the Republican infighting has given them some breathing space. Kevin McCarthy was kicked out as the House speaker yesterday, and GOP seems to be in complete disarray.

Speaking of Wikipedia, that's what I found there about "realclearpolitics":

"In 2020, The New York Times noted that since 2017, when a large number of its straight news journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics has had a rightward, pro-Trump turn"

And I went to Wiki because I was suspecting something like that. Trump "is back on top" for once, and they are happy to report it.

But Trump is not "well ahead", far from it. Even if we take the data from the same site, realclearpolitics.com, it looks like this:



I wouldn't call it "well ahead", to be honest.

Many sportsbetting sites are not accepting bets on 2024 USA elections right now, so, I can't say what bettors think, unfortunately.

[nullama]

~snip~

Speaking of Wikipedia, that's what I found there about "realclearpolitics":

"In 2020, The New York Times noted that since 2017, when a large number of its straight news journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics has had a rightward, pro-Trump turn"

And I went to Wiki because I was suspecting something like that. Trump "is back on top" for once, and they are happy to report it.

But Trump is not "well ahead", far from it. Even if we take the data from the same site, realclearpolitics.com, it looks like this:



I wouldn't call it "well ahead", to be honest.

Many sportsbetting sites are not accepting bets on 2024 USA elections right now, so, I can't say what bettors think, unfortunately.

Yeah, I agree with you on this one.

A difference lf 1% in a poll is clearly not a huge distance.

I think people are getting too polarised and they will exaggerate things like this poll for example.

[Hispo]

If Biden is senile and can't think straight and old fool, then Trump should not have any trouble facing him, after all trump is "smart and charismatic" right? So, why would he fear going against Biden? Lol. I will tell you why, because if Trump goes against Biden, the whole world would see how Biden is not senile and he is still capable of running a nation and Trump is not, that's the thing that will help him a lot and I am guessing that Biden would gain a ton of votes, along with Trump losing a lot of people.

Those do not mean the same thing, Trump losing doesn't equal Biden getting them, people could just not vote as well. In any case, the "idea" of Trump is better than trump himself, people like the idea of him, but when he starts to talk, people get cold feet about it. So, if Trump wants to really win this, I highly suggest he doesn't campaign, and I mean it, if he doesn't campaign at all, he has a very high chance of winning the race without a doubt.

I have seen Republican voters saying Biden is both a senile person who does not even know where he is and at the same time he is the godfather of a the Biden crime family, a small syndicate of criminals worth millions and millions of dollars. He cannot be both at the same time, obviously.

In my personal opinion, Biden is still a capable person but he also needs help when comes to taking decisions and governing, there is where the Democrat party come to his support and defend him. It would be easier if Biden was younger and did not need much assistance, since it has been already proven he indeed gets assistance for his political events.

In a normal country, Trump would not be the Republican nominee, by the way, but these are extra ordinary times.

[STT]

The proper term to consider would be the Biden administration not the singular man though it might all hinge on him.   I think he does have impairment by age but this isnt shocking news, USA has elected a president who had a terminal medical condition yet they wanted the man to sit as President anyway because his positives were greater then any impairment he was suffering.
  I would only judge Biden in the same way, for sure he has more challenges at his age then a man 20 years younger.  This is part of life, you wont always be 20 and with perfect health but also its true plenty of 20 year olds act like idiots waste their talent and good health and have awful judgements, arent reliable, etc.  People are obviously not (re)electing Biden because he is perfect just in preference to others and their decision process etc.
  On next election I dont think Biden loses from this health factor, many voters are also old and accept the conditions of his office.  If he fails in some way like poor management then that'll count more.   Imo so far I will guess Biden remains favorite to retain office.

If we're being honest Biden's own Democratic party wanted Hilary to run and win this office not him, I bet they were thinking of age.   Biden only got vice president as an immediate counter to Obama who barely had any experience in top office, Biden was quite vital but to the Democratic party this his was use and it was gone after Obama left.
    To treat Biden as one and done kind of used up was a kind of betrayal imo to not let the man run, in the end Biden was correct and Hilary was not popular enough; it was a bad step by the party to back these doubts as the most important consideration by which to exclude Biden.  I think in a parallel universe of Biden not Hilary in 2016, Biden wins that.

[Ever-young]

People are obviously not (re)electing Biden because he is perfect just in preference to others and their decision process etc.
  On next election I dont think Biden loses from this health factor, many voters are also old and accept the conditions of his office.  If he fails in some way like poor management then that'll count more.   Imo so far I will guess Biden remains favorite to retain office.

If health and age is to be considered as one of the important factor which they look at before a candidate is being selected or voted for into the presidential seat then their are lot of people who will never get a chance of becoming a president, but it seems like the people chose what they think the person can do over their health status, they also judge by what they believe the person can do which his age can’t be a limit to it.

Although sometimes I see favoritism at work in some major countries election US is not an exception, what the group, institutions or individuals who are voting for the candidate have to gain at the end of the day rather than what they think the person will do for the country when they have been voted into power. Right now I see Biden having a higher chance of winning over his opponents.

[Sithara007]

Speaking of Wikipedia, that's what I found there about "realclearpolitics":

"In 2020, The New York Times noted that since 2017, when a large number of its straight news journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics has had a rightward, pro-Trump turn"

And I went to Wiki because I was suspecting something like that. Trump "is back on top" for once, and they are happy to report it.

But Trump is not "well ahead", far from it. Even if we take the data from the same site, realclearpolitics.com, it looks like this:



I wouldn't call it "well ahead", to be honest.

Many sportsbetting sites are not accepting bets on 2024 USA elections right now, so, I can't say what bettors think, unfortunately.

First of all, I wouldn't consider Wikipedia as an authentic source of information. And secondly, +1.0% lead for the GOP candidate is earth shattering. During the 2016 POTUS election, Hillary actually had a lead of 1.9% and despite that Trump swept the polls with 304 electoral votes against 227 for Hillary. A lead of +1.0% in favor of Trump would actually mean 400+ electoral votes and even lean-blue states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Maine flipping to the GOP. And I would say that the polls look fairly accurate. There is a lot of anger even in blue states, regarding the border crisis.

[nullama]

Speaking of Wikipedia, that's what I found there about "realclearpolitics":

"In 2020, The New York Times noted that since 2017, when a large number of its straight news journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics has had a rightward, pro-Trump turn"

And I went to Wiki because I was suspecting something like that. Trump "is back on top" for once, and they are happy to report it.

But Trump is not "well ahead", far from it. Even if we take the data from the same site, realclearpolitics.com, it looks like this:



I wouldn't call it "well ahead", to be honest.

Many sportsbetting sites are not accepting bets on 2024 USA elections right now, so, I can't say what bettors think, unfortunately.

First of all, I wouldn't consider Wikipedia as an authentic source of information. And secondly, +1.0% lead for the GOP candidate is earth shattering. During the 2016 POTUS election, Hillary actually had a lead of 1.9% and despite that Trump swept the polls with 304 electoral votes against 227 for Hillary. A lead of +1.0% in favor of Trump would actually mean 400+ electoral votes and even lean-blue states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Maine flipping to the GOP. And I would say that the polls look fairly accurate. There is a lot of anger even in blue states, regarding the border crisis.

I think Wikipedia should be alright as a source of pointers of information, that is, there must be a link to the actual poll in the article.

But 1% is too small difference anyway

[Sithara007]

I think Wikipedia should be alright as a source of pointers of information, that is, there must be a link to the actual poll in the article.

But 1% is too small difference anyway

We are talking about a presidential poll, and this is for aggregate of polls. In this case, I would say that the +1.0% lead shown for Trump is not very insignificant. And as a matter of fact, different poll agencies have published POTUS polls for the last few days. And out of the last 17 polls, only three have shown Biden in the lead. All the other polls have shown either Trump in the lead, or a tie. Given this, I would say that Trump is clearly having an advantage right now. And also, the electoral college system will amplify that advantage.