who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Hispo]

~

Maybe the average bettor does not even care about those kind of news when comes to where to put their money. If the news is not directly related to Biden and his presidential bid, the odds won't move at all.
I also agree on what you say about when we may have a better time with this kind of betting market if we wait for the political campaign to reach the stages of debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, whatever they say on the debate stage can heavily influence on the decision of the voters and also on the odds of the markets.

I have also noticed that this news is not being spread at all by corporate or big media who have some affiliation with the political left, as expected.

Yes, the debates can impact the situation big time. Actually, it's hard to imagine Trump winning the debates in the eyes of the viewers, to be honest. Well, his hardcore supporters will not change their mind whatever happens, that's for sure, but people who are hesitant will take Biden's side I'm sure.

And for now gamblers vote with their bets for Trump more and more:



Many people think "Trump is the safe bet", even in this very thread, and I don't blame them, seeing what's going on around, but I personally think, oyu bet on Trump and you simply lose bet, that's all.

Though, Betwrong, we must point out that the increase of the odds Trump has and the overall chances he could accumulate on the elections is not because suddentky democrat voters decided he was better than Biden or because Biden's policies are not as good as Trump did back when he was the president of the country. The positive change of odds in favor of Trump the the increase of this popularity I believe has to do with two things: the increase of the severity of the immigrant crisis and the public Image/behavior Biden seems to have (regardless of how well economy is doing and regardless of the record low unemployment in the country). The immigration crisis and those people flooding the big blue cities in the country will flop moderate republicans and switch voters in favor of Trump, because the federal government is not providing any help and people have the impression the federal government is represented by no other but Biden.

[Sithara007]

Now once again, in terms of odds Trump has pulled ahead of Biden. This is surprising after all the recent drama. Trump was removed from the ballot in Colorado, and still he has an upper hand over Biden. No new polls have been released during the last 5-6 days, due to the ongoing holiday season. As per RCP, Trump as of now has a lead of +2.8%. And this is the widest lead he had in the last 12 months. Biden needs to do something about the border situation. Else it is going to be a horrible year for him and the Democrats in 2024.

[Hirose UK]

~snip~

~snip~

Actually. Keeping in mind what happened back during the pandemic and the unlawful management of George Floyd, I think the United States does not have much of a good experience handling situations which can lead towards riots and civil unrest in the country. The Supreme Court will likely rule in favor of Trump.
Also, in the very unlikely scenario they actually decide Trump cannot run as president because he participated in insurrection, I wonder what would happen to the stake of those who betted in favor of him on casinos like Stake. I assume that those casinos will wait until the last minute until Joe Biden or any other candidate gets elected before declaring winners, losers and settle the money in the accounts of those who won the bet. Otherwise, it would be problematic, in case some revesal happens.

The Democrat candidate would not change, that is for sure, it will continue to be Biden. Though, Nikki has gained so much Stream and backing in her campaign that she has more chances to beat Joe Biden than DeSantis, would Trump be revomed from the ballot.

So, that is one of the things that must always be taken into consideration by the Supreme Court, where it will make several efforts to avoid conflict and riots if coup occurs regarding the decisions taken in the current case.
We all know that Trump is candidate with a very large supporter base and has even become very strong community in supporting and becoming guard to win Trump in the upcoming election.
Just imagine, if there is wrong decision that causes the Trump camp to fall, then what will happen or be done by all of Trump supporting base, there will definitely be riots and massive demonstrations taking place at an undetermined time.
In moment we will see it and of course it is really difficult problem to solve.

There is lot of news that states that Trump is indeed the strongest candidate to win the election and that Trump also has much larger supporter base than the other candidates.
This is why there have been various attempts to overthrow him and of course the candidate who can best overthrow Trump is Biden, by taking advantage of his power, who is currently still serving as US President, he can create situation that benefits him.
But talking about political performance and US political competition is very difficult to understand because each candidate has their own way of being able to outperform each other.

For betting, it may not be certain whether Trump will really be eliminated after the decision is taken by the Supreme Court because I sure there will be series of dramas and of course changes in the decision taken by the Supreme Court could occur.

[FanEagle]

There is no established connection from Trump to any illegal actions that is the biggest contention.   You dont have to like Trumps words and speeches but to hold him criminally responsible for saying something politically would be the wrong route to take in terms of free speech and democracy overall.  Trump knows that, its the game he is playing but its also likely correct no judgement against him will hold without an actual full conviction criminally.  So far as I can tell he organised none of the actual physical actions that took place or had the intent to do so, none of his staff either.  Until they can prove a link, you cannot prosecute for words or bar him without that conviction it will be overturned.    This isnt Trump gate, he appears less guilty then Nixon at the time he left office for example going way back.
   Saying that I still dont think Trump has a chance of actual re-election as he has lost the swing voters it appears.    Just having Republican support is not enough and not all of them are on his side anyway again he has some failure on his hands for sure;  I cant remember anyone losing after 1 term and coming back but never say never.   The bet for now is does he get the Rep ticket and for now I think so but also I would bet against Trump there after.   On that basis I would hope the Biden odds go up slightly but mostly thats how I would favor betting on a long term or 2024 year end bet.

It is not the fact that he "said" something, he has been in trouble for various stuff that has nothing to do with what he said, but everything to do with what he actually did. Did FBI found nuclear weapons information at his personal place?

Yes, and that is public information, not even a secret, it's been talked about at senate and congress. Did he called the governor of one of the states (forgot where it was, Georgia?) and asked for recount to make it look like he won? Yes, the tapes are there. Did he used campaign money for personal use (paid of a pornstar) which is illegal? Yes, this is well documented as well.

There could be some other stuff that I am missing, but these are all crimes, and has nothing to do with what he said, and any one of them is a valid reason to ban him from politics forever.

We can't just let people commit a crime and move on like nothing happened, then next president will do the same, and this time he could be democrat, and then republicans will cry about how the democrat president is committing crimes, but they will have to suck it up since their republican president did it too and they let him. So they need to prevent anyone from doing it, every single person, including Trump.

[Hispo]

~snip~

~snip~

Actually. Keeping in mind what happened back during the pandemic and the unlawful management of George Floyd, I think the United States does not have much of a good experience handling situations which can lead towards riots and civil unrest in the country. The Supreme Court will likely rule in favor of Trump.
Also, in the very unlikely scenario they actually decide Trump cannot run as president because he participated in insurrection, I wonder what would happen to the stake of those who betted in favor of him on casinos like Stake. I assume that those casinos will wait until the last minute until Joe Biden or any other candidate gets elected before declaring winners, losers and settle the money in the accounts of those who won the bet. Otherwise, it would be problematic, in case some revesal happens.

The Democrat candidate would not change, that is for sure, it will continue to be Biden. Though, Nikki has gained so much Stream and backing in her campaign that she has more chances to beat Joe Biden than DeSantis, would Trump be revomed from the ballot.

So, that is one of the things that must always be taken into consideration by the Supreme Court, where it will make several efforts to avoid conflict and riots if coup occurs regarding the decisions taken in the current case.
We all know that Trump is candidate with a very large supporter base and has even become very strong community in supporting and becoming guard to win Trump in the upcoming election.
Just imagine, if there is wrong decision that causes the Trump camp to fall, then what will happen or be done by all of Trump supporting base, there will definitely be riots and massive demonstrations taking place at an undetermined time.
In moment we will see it and of course it is really difficult problem to solve.

There is lot of news that states that Trump is indeed the strongest candidate to win the election and that Trump also has much larger supporter base than the other candidates.
This is why there have been various attempts to overthrow him and of course the candidate who can best overthrow Trump is Biden, by taking advantage of his power, who is currently still serving as US President, he can create situation that benefits him.
But talking about political performance and US political competition is very difficult to understand because each candidate has their own way of being able to outperform each other.

For betting, it may not be certain whether Trump will really be eliminated after the decision is taken by the Supreme Court because I sure there will be series of dramas and of course changes in the decision taken by the Supreme Court could occur.

The thing is that the supreme court is pretty much more likely to chicken out when the times comes to judge whether Trump has indeed been part of an insurrection against the United States of America, so they are unlikely to exclude him from the ballot, though they would be also setting a dangerous precedent.
They could argue Trump did nothing wrong so he can continue to run as president in Colorado and in other states of the Union, or they could also argue those laws do not actually were meant to be applied to the president of the United States, citing some immunity. However, the legal point of those articles of the constitution not being applied to the president could be translated on future presidents to have an open window to plot against the government to stay in power and in case of failing not be afraid of facing the consequences of their obvious act of treason against a democratic republic.

If I had any say in what would the destiny of the money of those who gambled in favor of Trump be, I would not refund or do anything until the night of the election comes and Biden (or anyone else) is declared to be the winner of the presidency from 2024 to 2028, only when it gets official I would cross out Trump as the loser and pay those who correctly guessed the winning candidate, the casinos are supposed to be fair enough for both the winners and the losses when comes to betting in political events, specially in these unprecedented times we are living.

[PokerBetting]

Until now, Joe Bidden's opponent has not been declared, the presidential candidate of the Republican Party has not been officially announced.
It is still only the nomination stage, including former president donald trump also wants to run.
If Donald Trump vs Joe Bidden fight again, I prefer Donald Trump to win.
Although whoever wins doesn't affect anything in my life.

[Sithara007]

There is some good news for Donald Trump. The Michigan Supreme Court has ruled that Trump can't be removed from the presidential ballots within the state for 2024 POTUS elections. Earlier, the Colorado Court had ruled to remove him. As the election date approaches, we can expect more and more desperate measures from the Democrats, as Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump by a large margin in most of the opinion polls. They are hoping that Biden will make the cut, in case Ron DeSantis become the GOP nominee instead of Trump.

[FanEagle]

There is some good news for Donald Trump. The Michigan Supreme Court has ruled that Trump can't be removed from the presidential ballots within the state for 2024 POTUS elections. Earlier, the Colorado Court had ruled to remove him. As the election date approaches, we can expect more and more desperate measures from the Democrats, as Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump by a large margin in most of the opinion polls. They are hoping that Biden will make the cut, in case Ron DeSantis become the GOP nominee instead of Trump.

This is a dangerous thought and what the general law is trying to prevent. People like you seem to think that Trump is being labelled a criminal and not allowed to run for office because some people (literally judges) fear that he may win it. That is not the case, they did not prevent him from running the first time nor the second time, he has already managed to be nominated for president twice and won it once.

During his tenure he has managed to fill the courts with the most amount of republican judges in history as well, he put special care for that, as frequently as he did (well probably his team, not really him). The issue is that, by this logic, if you like a nominee, that means he can do any criminal act and he should not be touched at all? Imagine Biden stealing secret documents from government, an illegal thing to do, and he is sent to court, and the court just lets him walk free? Wouldn't you be mad? You would be, if you love Trump enough to let him commit any crime then you must be hating Biden, well think of the reverse now, people who hates Trump is being told that he could commit any crime he wants and should still be the president, imagine how mental that must sound to people who hate Trump.

[Tipstar]

There is some good news for Donald Trump. The Michigan Supreme Court has ruled that Trump can't be removed from the presidential ballots within the state for 2024 POTUS elections. Earlier, the Colorado Court had ruled to remove him. As the election date approaches, we can expect more and more desperate measures from the Democrats, as Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump by a large margin in most of the opinion polls. They are hoping that Biden will make the cut, in case Ron DeSantis become the GOP nominee instead of Trump.

Now it's maine judge that decided to block Trump. Not sure if they are working for or against Trump. US is back to spoil system and the judiciary are more political.
It's so funny to see the democracy of US fall. It were them that rigged elections and staged coup to gain power and influence around the world and now they are left with choices of a corrupt man and a mentally unstable bully. Any option they choose would further escalate the division. With the media and corporation losing their mind and taking desperate action against Trump in fear their panel may lose, we might have a civil war in US next year. I'm not betting on any now.

[Hirose UK]

~snip~

~snip~

The thing is that the supreme court is pretty much more likely to chicken out when the times comes to judge whether Trump has indeed been part of an insurrection against the United States of America, so they are unlikely to exclude him from the ballot, though they would be also setting a dangerous precedent.
They could argue Trump did nothing wrong so he can continue to run as president in Colorado and in other states of the Union, or they could also argue those laws do not actually were meant to be applied to the president of the United States, citing some immunity. However, the legal point of those articles of the constitution not being applied to the president could be translated on future presidents to have an open window to plot against the government to stay in power and in case of failing not be afraid of facing the consequences of their obvious act of treason against a democratic republic.

If I had any say in what would the destiny of the money of those who gambled in favor of Trump be, I would not refund or do anything until the night of the election comes and Biden (or anyone else) is declared to be the winner of the presidency from 2024 to 2028, only when it gets official I would cross out Trump as the loser and pay those who correctly guessed the winning candidate, the casinos are supposed to be fair enough for both the winners and the losses when comes to betting in political events, specially in these unprecedented times we are living.

You are right and the decision that was first taken to make Trump an invalid candidate because of accusations of being part of the rebellion will also change because we can also see that there are several parties who claim that Biden was also involved in the rebellion that previously occurred.
I don't know who is right or wrong, but this becomes problem by bringing each other down, if there is no proper resolution by the supreme court then disputes may occur.
But there is also lot going on out there in several countries that are still really making various efforts to maintain power, one of which is by taking advantage of the times and using them to remain in control of the situation.

But are you sure about that?
I not sure Biden will win and of course the other candidates are also splitting the vote tally to make the competition in terms of votes quite close.
Trump is still the favorite and that is why casinos that have betting options have given odds based on fairly high winning percentage.

[Sithara007]

Now it's maine judge that decided to block Trump. Not sure if they are working for or against Trump. US is back to spoil system and the judiciary are more political.
It's so funny to see the democracy of US fall. It were them that rigged elections and staged coup to gain power and influence around the world and now they are left with choices of a corrupt man and a mentally unstable bully. Any option they choose would further escalate the division. With the media and corporation losing their mind and taking desperate action against Trump in fear their panel may lose, we might have a civil war in US next year. I'm not betting on any now.

Please correct me in case I am wrong. The ban was imposed by Shenna Bellows (Secretary of State of Maine), who is a Democrat politician and not a judge. She was the Democrat candidate during 2014 United States Senate election in Maine (in which she lost out to Republican Susan Collins). So blaming the judiciary is not correct at least in this case. And I have said this before. All this drama from the Democrat politicians will end up boosting the sympathy wave for Donald Trump, and his popularity will only increase in the swing states.

[nullama]

There is some good news for Donald Trump. The Michigan Supreme Court has ruled that Trump can't be removed from the presidential ballots within the state for 2024 POTUS elections. Earlier, the Colorado Court had ruled to remove him. As the election date approaches, we can expect more and more desperate measures from the Democrats, as Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump by a large margin in most of the opinion polls. They are hoping that Biden will make the cut, in case Ron DeSantis become the GOP nominee instead of Trump.

I think this is unprecedented in the history of the United States. Maybe I'm wrong though, but I don't think anything like this has happened before.

And to be honest, I think this only makes Trump more popular.

People are talking more about Trump than the current president of the US.

[Betwrong]

~

Though, Betwrong, we must point out that the increase of the odds Trump has and the overall chances he could accumulate on the elections is not because suddentky democrat voters decided he was better than Biden or because Biden's policies are not as good as Trump did back when he was the president of the country. The positive change of odds in favor of Trump the the increase of this popularity I believe has to do with two things: the increase of the severity of the immigrant crisis and the public Image/behavior Biden seems to have (regardless of how well economy is doing and regardless of the record low unemployment in the country). The immigration crisis and those people flooding the big blue cities in the country will flop moderate republicans and switch voters in favor of Trump, because the federal government is not providing any help and people have the impression the federal government is represented by no other but Biden.

Here's the newsest figures from the oddschecker:



Remeber, Ron DeSantis was on the third place once? Cruel world for him, huh?

And with all you've said, do you think Trump really has a better chance than Biden to be the next President?

[Hispo]

~

Though, Betwrong, we must point out that the increase of the odds Trump has and the overall chances he could accumulate on the elections is not because suddentky democrat voters decided he was better than Biden or because Biden's policies are not as good as Trump did back when he was the president of the country. The positive change of odds in favor of Trump the the increase of this popularity I believe has to do with two things: the increase of the severity of the immigrant crisis and the public Image/behavior Biden seems to have (regardless of how well economy is doing and regardless of the record low unemployment in the country). The immigration crisis and those people flooding the big blue cities in the country will flop moderate republicans and switch voters in favor of Trump, because the federal government is not providing any help and people have the impression the federal government is represented by no other but Biden.

Here's the newsest figures from the oddschecker:



Remeber, Ron DeSantis was on the third place once? Cruel world for him, huh?

And with all you've said, do you think Trump really has a better chance than Biden to be the next President?

The case of Ron is quite a case to be studied in the future (when these elections are over) by political strategists and advertisement providers, to be honest; it is quite remarkable how he had the odds, the donors and the poll numbers to had taken over Trump but end up losing all that support because is bad personality and tasteless behavior during interviews, at this point I believe Chris Chistie is a better candidate than him, at least he is not afraid of Trump is not afraid of saying the thinks he actually believes. Keeping in mind De Santis support basically comes from a percentage of the MAGA base which was not sure about Trump as candidate, it may be safe to say that his political career may be over once he gets removed from his position in Florida, Trump won't ever sponsor him again, obviously.

I believe Trump has a very good chance of winning, because this is not a normal world anymore. if this was a normal world like in the 2000"s, Trump race would have been over after he got indicted once or twice and after being found guilty of sexual assault, etc. but he continues to dominate the Republican party, sadly. What bothers me is Biden treating Trump as he was a normal politician and avoids direct confrontation against him (probably because that would only help the narrative of those indictments being politically motivated). Anyways, I am not sure yet where to put my money, to be honest. 

[AmoreJaz]

There is some good news for Donald Trump. The Michigan Supreme Court has ruled that Trump can't be removed from the presidential ballots within the state for 2024 POTUS elections. Earlier, the Colorado Court had ruled to remove him. As the election date approaches, we can expect more and more desperate measures from the Democrats, as Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump by a large margin in most of the opinion polls. They are hoping that Biden will make the cut, in case Ron DeSantis become the GOP nominee instead of Trump.

I think this is unprecedented in the history of the United States. Maybe I'm wrong though, but I don't think anything like this has happened before.

And to be honest, I think this only makes Trump more popular.

People are talking more about Trump than the current president of the US.

seems that Mr. Blondie has another chance to redeem himself if he will be elected one more time. the odds are showing that stake is favouring a lil bit on Trump. i don't think Biden will get this position again


https://stake.com/sports/outright/politics-entertainment/politics/us-presidential-election-2024-democratic-preside/42847979-us-presidential-election-2024-democratic-preside


https://stake.com/sports/outright/politics-entertainment/politics/us-presidential-election-2024-republican-preside/42847986-us-presidential-election-2024-republican-preside

anyway, we will see the actual list maybe couple of months from now when all the candidates have been filed. don't know exactly the filing deadline for every state. so the above list can still change as well as the odds involved.

[Sithara007]

^^^ So as per the odds in Stake.com, Nikki Haley has now cemented herself as the alternative to Donald Trump. Even then, she will not get enough support to get past Trump during the primaries. The anti-Trump camp within GOP seems to be rallying behind Haley. DeSantis is down, and Ramaswamy is no longer relevant after he announced that it would be realistic for him to target the VP nomination. But the big question is if Trump somehow get disqualified, which candidate would be preferred by him. He is definitely not going to support either Haley or DeSantis.

[nullama]

~snip~
seems that Mr. Blondie has another chance to redeem himself if he will be elected one more time. the odds are showing that stake is favouring a lil bit on Trump. i don't think Biden will get this position again


https://stake.com/sports/outright/politics-entertainment/politics/us-presidential-election-2024-democratic-preside/42847979-us-presidential-election-2024-democratic-preside

I didn't know that Michelle Obama was a candidate!

But then I looked it up and it seems that it is not the case, and it's only a conspiracy theory?

Man, the US is really the land of made up things these days.

[FanEagle]

What is important with these "trump won't be allowed to vote" parts coming from other states, is the fact that do they have a legal standing or not. If they do have a legal standing it's very scary, if they do not have any legal standing that is even scarier as well.

Think of it this way, if they do have a legal standing, that means a president of the USA did something so horrible that legally he is not allowed to run again and it is real, not fake at all. If it is not legal, then it means there are some judges in the USA, who has used their power to illegally not allowed a president to run, which could be precedent and other states may start doing it too, if they are allowed to do that, then how could we sure that some republican state judge won't do it to Biden? So it is not really any good way at all, in either case this is quite scary, either a president did something that prevents him to run again, or a judge used their power for unjust move, that is terrible to think about.

[nullama]

What is important with these "trump won't be allowed to vote" parts coming from other states, is the fact that do they have a legal standing or not. If they do have a legal standing it's very scary, if they do not have any legal standing that is even scarier as well.

Think of it this way, if they do have a legal standing, that means a president of the USA did something so horrible that legally he is not allowed to run again and it is real, not fake at all. If it is not legal, then it means there are some judges in the USA, who has used their power to illegally not allowed a president to run, which could be precedent and other states may start doing it too, if they are allowed to do that, then how could we sure that some republican state judge won't do it to Biden? So it is not really any good way at all, in either case this is quite scary, either a president did something that prevents him to run again, or a judge used their power for unjust move, that is terrible to think about.

I don't see this as such a big deal.

Think of it as the right to vote in the US. Not everyone can do it, you can lose that right. For example, prisoners right to vote is defined state by state: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_rights_in_the_United_States#Prisoners

If you can lose your right to vote, then it makes even more sense that you can lose your ability to be a presidential candidate.

It's not a political thing, it's just how the rules work. If Biden has a similar conviction, then the same would apply.

[Hispo]

What is important with these "trump won't be allowed to vote" parts coming from other states, is the fact that do they have a legal standing or not. If they do have a legal standing it's very scary, if they do not have any legal standing that is even scarier as well.

Think of it this way, if they do have a legal standing, that means a president of the USA did something so horrible that legally he is not allowed to run again and it is real, not fake at all. If it is not legal, then it means there are some judges in the USA, who has used their power to illegally not allowed a president to run, which could be precedent and other states may start doing it too, if they are allowed to do that, then how could we sure that some republican state judge won't do it to Biden? So it is not really any good way at all, in either case this is quite scary, either a president did something that prevents him to run again, or a judge used their power for unjust move, that is terrible to think about.

The things is that there are some politicians in the United States who believe the article in the constitution which is being used against Trump is supposed to be used specifically in this way and in situations like these ones for preventing bad people to reach the presidency or any official position within the government whatsoever, while there are other who believe this is an article which is specifically about the prevention of people who participated in the American civil war into the Union politics.
Regardless of what happens, the judges of those states won't have the final word, the SCOTUS will and they are likely to side with Trump anyways.

Whatever happens (and going beyong gambling and betting on political options for the presidency of the United States) this year sure is going to be pretty agitated in the news, rumors, conspiracy theories and probably foreign intervention on the way of thinking of the public. It has already been proven that Trump only gets stronger with each accusation and these attempts to kick Jim out the ballot will continue to accumulate support for him. Let us see how the primaries go.