Lotteries and possibility vs. probability

[Blitzboy]

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ALL you said is true indeed, I think we had  a discussion on this board or in the gambling discussion board, about those who take gambling as an main and only source of income for livelihood, it is a very bad attitude and something that we all must discourage..

Gambling is not a bad thing to do as a side hustle or hobby, it should never be taken seriously, but unfortunately, many people in our societies today take gambling as their only source of livelihood, and when you try to find out why, they tell you the government have refused to create jobs, if government refuse to create jobs, what stops us as individuals from creating Jobs for ourselves, as well as for others?
It's a question I've always asked.

I think that most people who give that argument are hiding or even unaware themselves about the real reason behind their behavior: that they really want to gamble, or are already addicted, but it's not their fault, but environment's. That's called external locus of control and characteristic of childish/irresponsible people.

Most people shouldn't think about making a living out of gambling (only a few so called influencers manage to do that by diversifying their sources of income) and, in the case they did, they shouldn't remember that if anything goes wrong, as it is expected to be, fault will be theirs and not government's nor whoever else's.

Despite having similarities to the untrained eye, gambling and investing are two distinct fields. It is intellectually lazy to assume that everyone is merely using the facade of investment to feed their gambling compulsions. You seem to be misunderstood at the core.

While I am aware that individuals may have a propensity for gambling, to categorize everyone as naive and careless is to ignore the subtleties of economic behavior. Both economies and investment methods change throughout time. It would be a serious error to dismiss this growth as simply gambling.

Yes, not everyone can make a living from gambling, but isnt that true of all professions? A select handful do well. Shaming those who fail and blaming others for their failure smacks of conceit and oversimplification.

[so98nn]

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas. I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

[khaled0111]

Despite having similarities to the untrained eye, gambling and investing are two distinct fields. It is intellectually lazy to assume that everyone is merely using the facade of investment to feed their gambling compulsions. You seem to be misunderstood at the core.

I don't know why some members insist on comparing gambling to investing or trading. They are completely two different thing. Investment or trading is a business and it requires some knowledge and some skills while gambling is nothing but an entertainment activity and you should not expect making money from it.

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas.

The formula is simple. If you want to be 100% sure to win the lottery, you need to buy all the tickets.

[Porfirii]

Despite having similarities to the untrained eye, gambling and investing are two distinct fields. It is intellectually lazy to assume that everyone is merely using the facade of investment to feed their gambling compulsions. You seem to be misunderstood at the core.

I don't know why some members insist on comparing gambling to investing or trading. They are completely two different thing. Investment or trading is a business and it requires some knowledge and some skills while gambling is nothing but an entertainment activity and you should not expect making money from it.

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas.

The formula is simple. If you want to be 100% sure to win the lottery, you need to buy all the tickets.

Yes, and yes. Thank you khaled0111. This is not our mere opinion, it is based on science. You can read Kahneman or Taleb if you're not convinced by our arguments. There is no oversimplification in saying that most people who convince themselves to make a living out of gambling are, or way too naive, or they are lying to themselves about why should they do it. Be aware that I'm not saying that it's true the 100% of the cases (some will make that decision being aware of the risk and accepting it), but psychology tells another story.

On the other hand, talking about maths and probabilities, in gambling in general, and lotteries in particular, you are playing against a system that is built against you, and very few who enter the maze get out of it with a reward. So one should enter the maze just to have fun, or to dream about a big prize who could change his life like what we are talking about lotteries, but making a living out of it is like making a living while being a gladiator in ancient Rome: it's not going to end well, don't overestimate the very few known cases of libertos.

I know one case many decades ago of a man in my country who realised that an old lottery was badly designed, so he bought a huge amount of tickets and got rich. But that was because the lottery was badly planned, and even if that was the case today, he would be accused of taking advantage of a vulnerability, and treated like a scammer. So stories like that are entertaining, but risky if you get obsessed with them and pursue being the protagonist of one of them because, again, the system is designed from it's origin to consistently put you at disadvantage, and the cases of flawedly designed games are anecdotal these days.

[Bitinity]

Despite having similarities to the untrained eye, gambling and investing are two distinct fields. It is intellectually lazy to assume that everyone is merely using the facade of investment to feed their gambling compulsions. You seem to be misunderstood at the core.

I don't know why some members insist on comparing gambling to investing or trading. They are completely two different thing. Investment or trading is a business and it requires some knowledge and some skills while gambling is nothing but an entertainment activity and you should not expect making money from it.

I guess those who are comparing gambling to trading/investing are those who are doing investment and trade like how they are gambling. I'm sure there are still some people who do trade/invest without knowledge/skills because they do it blindly based on their feeling only (like pure guessing). I wont be hypocrite, I was at this stage in the past when I did trading just based on my own feeling.

[slapper]

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas. I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

"otteries are, by design, games of chance. Sure, there might be stories about someone using math to win big, but think about it: for every success story, there are countless failures
I can tell you the lottery is not a sustainable financial plan. The house always has the edge, and the odds are against you. Buying multiple tickets might increase your chances slightly, but never enough to justify it as an "investment"
Remember, relying on a YouTube video for such crucial financial decisions? Not the wisest choice. Stick to more reliable sources and remember: if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is

[serjent05]

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas. I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

"otteries are, by design, games of chance. Sure, there might be stories about someone using math to win big, but think about it: for every success story, there are countless failures
I can tell you the lottery is not a sustainable financial plan. The house always has the edge, and the odds are against you. Buying multiple tickets might increase your chances slightly, but never enough to justify it as an "investment"
Remember, relying on a YouTube video for such crucial financial decisions? Not the wisest choice. Stick to more reliable sources and remember: if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is

There is always the law of equilibrium as far as I remember, like in every action there is always an equal opposite reaction.  So when a person won millions of dollars, there is also other people or group of people that will lose the same amount of money.  It is also no different in trading, in order for one party to gain, another party needs to be drained.

With the probability of winning, it is almost a losing battle.  There is only 1 out of millions of possibilities to win but I believe lottery ticket buyers knows that reason why they don't get frustrated instead keep on buying because they wanted to be that one out of those millions.

[CarnagexD]

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas. I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

"otteries are, by design, games of chance. Sure, there might be stories about someone using math to win big, but think about it: for every success story, there are countless failures
I can tell you the lottery is not a sustainable financial plan. The house always has the edge, and the odds are against you. Buying multiple tickets might increase your chances slightly, but never enough to justify it as an "investment"
Remember, relying on a YouTube video for such crucial financial decisions? Not the wisest choice. Stick to more reliable sources and remember: if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is

There is always the law of equilibrium as far as I remember, like in every action there is always an equal opposite reaction.  So when a person won millions of dollars, there is also other people or group of people that will lose the same amount of money.  It is also no different in trading, in order for one party to gain, another party needs to be drained.

With the probability of winning, it is almost a losing battle.  There is only 1 out of millions of possibilities to win but I believe lottery ticket buyers knows that reason why they don't get frustrated instead keep on buying because they wanted to be that one out of those millions.

Yes when we all got into gambling and taking bets and risks, we are all aware of that. This game is a zero sum game. We are taking money of each other. Those who stays in the end playing is the winner and have the highest profits. But I guess it still deals with why are you participating? Is it ou of boredome? To make money? To just chill?

You cannot control the outcome of your bets. But you can control yourself and your expectation especially in gambling so it won't affect your life negatiely.

[tusandii]

With the probability of winning, it is almost a losing battle.  There is only 1 out of millions of possibilities to win but I believe lottery ticket buyers knows that reason why they don't get frustrated instead keep on buying because they wanted to be that one out of those millions.

From the winning percentage on lottery tickets, there is only 1% for someone to win the jackpot to become a millionaire, because if the jackpot can come out more often, I think the dealer will go bankrupt because they have to spend large amounts of money every time.
But the lottery is a bet based on several sequences of numbers that come out, so it's difficult for gamblers to actually buy lottery tickets correctly.
They still often buy lottery tickets and never give up because the lottery is one of the bets that has a ticket price that is cheap enough so that even though it is more frequent to buy it, gamblers will not feel that they have lost big money unless the purchase is made in large quantities, maybe anyone will lose all the money you have.

I once read a story where there was an old man who was retired and he risked all of his retirement money to buy lottery tickets and in the end he managed to get a total win that was many times the total money for buying the ticket, but if you think about it logically it is impossible to happen and very big risk.
I'm sure no one will dare to take such a risk, especially in their old age when they can no longer make some money from work.

[JackpotRacer]

The formula is simple. If you want to be 100% sure to win the lottery, you need to buy all the tickets.

100% correct, but then your return is less than your investment in the tickets you bought.

1 usd or 1 euro is always going to seem cheap to win 1 million or more. most people are not going to care about the mathematics of the odds.

[delfastTions]

With the probability of winning, it is almost a losing battle.  There is only 1 out of millions of possibilities to win but I believe lottery ticket buyers knows that reason why they don't get frustrated instead keep on buying because they wanted to be that one out of those millions.

From the winning percentage on lottery tickets, there is only 1% for someone to win the jackpot to become a millionaire, because if the jackpot can come out more often, I think the dealer will go bankrupt because they have to spend large amounts of money every time.
But the lottery is a bet based on several sequences of numbers that come out, so it's difficult for gamblers to actually buy lottery tickets correctly.
They still often buy lottery tickets and never give up because the lottery is one of the bets that has a ticket price that is cheap enough so that even though it is more frequent to buy it, gamblers will not feel that they have lost big money unless the purchase is made in large quantities, maybe anyone will lose all the money you have.

I once read a story where there was an old man who was retired and he risked all of his retirement money to buy lottery tickets and in the end he managed to get a total win that was many times the total money for buying the ticket, but if you think about it logically it is impossible to happen and very big risk.
I'm sure no one will dare to take such a risk, especially in their old age when they can no longer make some money from work.

Unfortunately, many people retain the excitement and passion for gambling throughout their lives.  And even when they become pensioners and can no longer earn a lot of money, but only receive their pension money, some of these people can really start buying lottery tickets in large quantities or even play some kind of primitive gambling.  And it is quite possible that such old people can turn into beggars because of their addiction.  And especially if their income immediately drops quite sharply after retirement, and they were used to even earlier, when they worked to spend much more money on the lottery and gambling than they can afford to spend after retirement.  Here, of course, their children and family should intervene in order to prevent the transformation of such an old man into a beggar.  But this is of course if he has responsible children and a family. 
And if he's not completely alone.  In general, it is a pity for such old people.

[maydna]

Yes when we all got into gambling and taking bets and risks, we are all aware of that. This game is a zero sum game. We are taking money of each other. Those who stays in the end playing is the winner and have the highest profits. But I guess it still deals with why are you participating? Is it ou of boredome? To make money? To just chill?

You cannot control the outcome of your bets. But you can control yourself and your expectation especially in gambling so it won't affect your life negatiely.

We are aware of the risk, but we still take the risk because we want to win from gambling. And that's what keeps us playing gambling until now. And that's also what happened to the people who bought the lottery because they didn't have to spend a fortune to buy a lottery ticket. And when they buy those lottery tickets with a certain amount of money, they will be able to have many tickets and hope that one of them can come out as a winner.

And I think people who play the lottery because they want to participate with their friends, want to relax while collecting more lottery tickets, and also want to earn money as an end goal. And even though they haven't won yet, that doesn't stop them from buying lottery tickets.

[Rabata]

I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

No one can't get advantages in the lottery except luck. Yet there are some people who try to apply math. If lotteries are organized in a particular region, there are some people who have a lot of money who will always try to buy lots of lotteries considering the total number of lotteries and the price of prizes awarded. If their calculations are right, they can win there in many cases. I actually saw a person who bought lotteries for sure win there and he got few prizes there but he tried to keep the first prize under his control but didn't. He got 4th prize. So, I think such strategies are really risky in lottery.

[Porfirii]

I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

No one can't get advantages in the lottery except luck. Yet there are some people who try to apply math. If lotteries are organized in a particular region, there are some people who have a lot of money who will always try to buy lots of lotteries considering the total number of lotteries and the price of prizes awarded. If their calculations are right, they can win there in many cases. I actually saw a person who bought lotteries for sure win there and he got few prizes there but he tried to keep the first prize under his control but didn't. He got 4th prize. So, I think such strategies are really risky in lottery.

There are calculators online so nobody needs to make this kind of experiments in real life anymore. You can simply write the value, number of tickets, and it makes approximations so you can make an idea of the average results. The more the bets, the more likely the result to match with the approximations shown.

Who knows, maybe I talked too early when I said that it is mathematically impossible to find a system able to beat the lotteries, because maybe in some regions flawed lotteries still exist; but they would be the exception, and not the norm, so I would forget myself of this and keep my feet on the floor, and if curious, use the calculators, but nothing more.

[Yaunfitda]

I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

No one can't get advantages in the lottery except luck. Yet there are some people who try to apply math. If lotteries are organized in a particular region, there are some people who have a lot of money who will always try to buy lots of lotteries considering the total number of lotteries and the price of prizes awarded. If their calculations are right, they can win there in many cases. I actually saw a person who bought lotteries for sure win there and he got few prizes there but he tried to keep the first prize under his control but didn't. He got 4th prize. So, I think such strategies are really risky in lottery.

Yeah, there are reports that I read in the past that try and wanted to break the probability and the numbers of lotto. But for sure, even if you bet all the numbers, you will still get a negative results that's why nobody tries it even those who have a lot of money.

It's all about being lucky and one thing we learn is that those people who won before has numbers that is significant to them, either their birthdays or some numbers that they can relate and by string of luck win the jackpot price.

[Twentyonepaylots]

Yeah, there are reports that I read in the past that try and wanted to break the probability and the numbers of lotto. But for sure, even if you bet all the numbers, you will still get a negative results that's why nobody tries it even those who have a lot of money.

It's all about being lucky and one thing we learn is that those people who won before has numbers that is significant to them, either their birthdays or some numbers that they can relate and by string of luck win the jackpot price.

People still keep participating in lotteries despite being aware of the slim odds of winning and that the probability of losing is much higher. This is due to trying luck, hoping to strike it rich and win a large payout.

I remember my grandmother, who daily participated in the lotto, which became routine for her. She knows the minuscule odds of winning the lottery but continues to participate. When asked why she did this, she said, "Maybe I will be the lucky lotto winner one day and change my life." Also, it brings her joy and excitement every time she watches the results on TV. That said, we cannot do anything about it anymore. She knows the risk and keeps doing it, meaning she affords to lose the money she uses in participating lotto in exchange for the tiny luck in winning.

[mak013]

Yeah, there are reports that I read in the past that try and wanted to break the probability and the numbers of lotto. But for sure, even if you bet all the numbers, you will still get a negative results that's why nobody tries it even those who have a lot of money.

It's all about being lucky and one thing we learn is that those people who won before has numbers that is significant to them, either their birthdays or some numbers that they can relate and by string of luck win the jackpot price.

People still keep participating in lotteries despite being aware of the slim odds of winning and that the probability of losing is much higher. This is due to trying luck, hoping to strike it rich and win a large payout.

I remember my grandmother, who daily participated in the lotto, which became routine for her. She knows the minuscule odds of winning the lottery but continues to participate. When asked why she did this, she said, "Maybe I will be the lucky lotto winner one day and change my life." Also, it brings her joy and excitement every time she watches the results on TV. That said, we cannot do anything about it anymore. She knows the risk and keeps doing it, meaning she affords to lose the money she uses in participating lotto in exchange for the tiny luck in winning.

It is due to the small price of the ticket. When you choose to buy coffee or ticket - it is easy to buy a ticket. And it is easy to dream about big prize. And someone even win it. But the maths says that it would be better to make a deposit or invest it in something more real than this prize. At least - just but a coffee.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Yeah, there are reports that I read in the past that try and wanted to break the probability and the numbers of lotto. But for sure, even if you bet all the numbers, you will still get a negative results that's why nobody tries it even those who have a lot of money.

It's all about being lucky and one thing we learn is that those people who won before has numbers that is significant to them, either their birthdays or some numbers that they can relate and by string of luck win the jackpot price.

People still keep participating in lotteries despite being aware of the slim odds of winning and that the probability of losing is much higher. This is due to trying luck, hoping to strike it rich and win a large payout.

I remember my grandmother, who daily participated in the lotto, which became routine for her. She knows the minuscule odds of winning the lottery but continues to participate. When asked why she did this, she said, "Maybe I will be the lucky lotto winner one day and change my life." Also, it brings her joy and excitement every time she watches the results on TV. That said, we cannot do anything about it anymore. She knows the risk and keeps doing it, meaning she affords to lose the money she uses in participating lotto in exchange for the tiny luck in winning.

It is due to the small price of the ticket. When you choose to buy coffee or ticket - it is easy to buy a ticket. And it is easy to dream about big prize. And someone even win it. But the maths says that it would be better to make a deposit or invest it in something more real than this prize. At least - just but a coffee.

I always think something, when a person buys a lottery ticket, perhaps they are not so clear about their possibilities, but a very strong hope arises in them to be able to cling to it, in their minds a very great possibility grows and that is something that they always have on their mind, there is no other way, even if you tell them that it is very difficult for them to win, they will always buy, because for them their faith moves mountains, for that reason there is always that possibility of always staying very up to date with everything that has to do with lottery things, it does not matter if the ticket increases in price, for them the best thing will always be that lottery, and if they do not win, they keep hope to continue playing, they are things that they always pass.

I have a friend who plays a lottery in Colombia, and it is a lottery that has 4 digits to win, the truth is that I see it as very impossible to win, because 4 figures is a lot, what can happen here is that you have a Good luck winning, sometimes the numbers for these lotteries are not all sold, because the lottery is played every day and that is something that really affects the probability, in the case of the possibilities there are many, but the probability decreases enormously .

This friend buys that ticket for 10,000 COP, which is almost equivalent to 2.5USD, he does it every day, and he buys it with the same faith in winning, so these things for him say that he can get a lucky shot and if he wins it He buys a house that is very big, and he has in mind that it costs 20,000 dollars, it is farm-style, where they have horses, cattle, it is quite large, the truth is that it seems to me that it is a great option, and I tell him a house of A lot of money is spent on these, because it is needed to do the maintenance, really a house like that needs to be working and working every day, of course they can farm there , but I think that it is necessary to find personnel so that it is always well.

[ethereumhunter]

People still keep participating in lotteries despite being aware of the slim odds of winning and that the probability of losing is much higher. This is due to trying luck, hoping to strike it rich and win a large payout.

I remember my grandmother, who daily participated in the lotto, which became routine for her. She knows the minuscule odds of winning the lottery but continues to participate. When asked why she did this, she said, "Maybe I will be the lucky lotto winner one day and change my life." Also, it brings her joy and excitement every time she watches the results on TV. That said, we cannot do anything about it anymore. She knows the risk and keeps doing it, meaning she affords to lose the money she uses in participating lotto in exchange for the tiny luck in winning.

People who buy lottery tickets realize that the chances of winning are not great but buy them anyway because they still hope to win the jackpot one day. And besides that, to buy a lottery ticket, they don't need to use a lot of money and they can even buy 1 ticket and keep it or buy another ticket the next day. And lottery tickets give a lot of people the hope of winning so they will still buy them because they want to be the lottery winner.

Some people even have a specific budget to buy those lottery tickets and continue to buy them every weekend or day. So that's the attraction of lottery tickets will always make people keep buying them even though the chances of winning are not too big.

[jostorres]

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas. I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

What makes you think that the win he got was because of his maths and not because he bought a good number of tickets and just won the lottery by chance which was merely a coincidence with the hard work he had put in his math trying to figure everything out? I mean, if it was actually possible to do something like that only using mathematics, there are thousands of geniuses in the world, and there would be no profitable lottery-running organizations in the world.

No matter how much one works with his skills in mathematics, it doesn't make any difference about how many tickets one buys though it increases the chances of winning, that doesn't make someone win, at the end of the day, it all boils down to one's luck and nothing else can make a difference.