Lotteries and possibility vs. probability

[serjent05]

Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.

I agree with all you have said except the point I have quoted above. Mathematically/statistically speaking, the more tickets you have the more your chances of winning are. I'll give an example: let's assume there are only three tickets available and one of them is the winning one. You bought two and I bought the remaining one. Your chance of wining / odds is 2/3 or 66.66% while my odds of winning are 1/3 or 33.33%. Therefore, the more tickets you have the more you are likely to win.

I think it is not misleading, I agree that with the increasing number of tickets the chance of the person winning increases.  Since a number of tickets is directly proportional to the increase in the chance of winning.   It actually doubled since you have two tickets instead of one.  Though the problem is that in the lottery the chance is really low to make a difference.  Still even with low chance I still don't think the idea of more ticket more chances of winning is misleading.

[1715376488]

1715376488

[ralle14]

I used to play lotteries in crypto casinos a few times, but only in the small ones because the total number of tickets would only go up to a couple of hundred, and their lottery is different to the bigger ones that require you to pick several numbers. I would rather watch someone spend money on these lotteries, but I might change my mind if they have other prizes because I already know i'm never going to hit all the numbers they draw every day but hitting a few of them is more manageable.

[avp2306]

Humans like to believe in supernatural ways of winning defying the math involved and thus their greed and the addictive buying of lottery tickets as seen with many people.

I think if we can keep the taxation issue aside and be completely selfish - then buying a lottery ticket in enough number to be able to get the winning ticket is a loss in total. We are interested on our own gains instead of taxation, so if that itself is a loss, why buy the ticket at all? a chance of less than 0.0001% is practically equal to no chance at all - this should go in straight in everyone's brains.

Having a belief that there's some rituals or any superstitious belief that can help them increase there chances of winning is not wrong. If that can make them feel at ease or even comfortable while betting then let it be. Since in every country we have different traditions so expect that there will be a crazy suggestions about such thing we can read somewhere.

Also even the chance is low there are people still bet just for excitement since its really fun if you have something to wait especially in draw time. But what we should not do is to exceed especially with our expectation upon buying some tickets and we should not do panic buying to think that we can hit the possible winning numbers if we buy a lot of tickets since its a bad decision to take.

Rituals and superstitions adding a dash of allure to gambling isn't uncommon. However, they provide solace rather than altering luck. Remember, gambling is dictated by randomness and odds, not mystical forces.

The adrenaline surge during a bet, the climax as results teeter, are undoubtedly emotional high points. Yet, the thrill should not be confused with an assurance of gains. Bear in mind, losses are more prevalent in gambling than wins.

Finally, the belief that owning more tickets elevates the likelihood of winning is misleading. This can prompt careless choices and a false sense of command. Each gamble is a distinct event; more tickets don't tilt the odds. Stay grounded and rational in your choices.

Such rituals just made just to make theirself feel relax on what bets they are trying to do and see some couple of people doing this and I don't see any problem with it as long as they are fine and also enjoying.

We all know that all is random so if they feel that they are just wasting their money for their bets without winning any single draw for long time then they should quit since there's nothing gonna happen if they continue and spend more because it will just make them lose huge without them knowing.

Also some think about owning tickets increase their chance to win but it doesn't give any sense at all especially if we talk about lottery since probabilities is so low and for that even if we take lots of ticket there's still a huge chance for us to lose similar to other who also place a small bets so we should lower down our expectation about this and just rely on 1 ticket luck since its enough on lotteries.

[Haunebu]

Therefore, the more tickets you have the more you are likely to win.
By buying more tickets you are improving your chances of winning.

This is common sense and I have no idea why some people think that they are independent like the bets in games like dice, roulette, baccarat etc. More lottery tickets increase winning chances and risk at the same time.

This is why whales usually buy lots of tickets while the small scale gamblers purchase just a single or couple of tickets.

[Porfirii]

Hey! thanks for asking, everybody is throwing his own opinion here (as expected, because I made a direct question in the OP) but nobody asked for the source of info that led to this topic, and I think that everybody should read about it before making his own conclusions.

I'm really interested in it what could make you think about it? Upon reading it it's based on Daniel Kahneman's book, Thinking Fast and Slow. I have read it and I do remember some key points that it has.

I like how the author applied the risk effect and how it makes us think about the risk we are facing. It's definitely about framing it as well as how it is presented to us and how we are going to approach a certain "possibility" not knowing the real probability.

It's one of the reasons definitely why Insurance and lotteries exist lol.

Contrary to the majority of colleagues who commented here, lottery is still my favourite game. Although I try to keep my feet on the ground, we should not underestimate the importance of dreams either (every Bitcoiner are more or less dreamers, aren't we all?). On the other hand, I live in a social state, so unlike other people here I'm convinced that at least a part of the expenses will finance public health, education, pensions...

For the price of a beer I can buy the excitation of getting a dear life for a week or a month. I like the sensation when, from time to time, when I less expect it, the thought of winning the lottery comes to my mind. Beer lasts much less and hurts my liver .

Of course, like every game, it also carries a risk if you don't control your emotions and get lost in that dream of being rich, but that's what the rational mind is for, and that's the clue of this topic:

- To me 1€ at a time is enough but more, a big mistake.
- Not playing lottery at all means losing a great opportunity to dream, hope and be happy at times, as we go on with our lives (like not holding Bitcoin).

[noormcs5]

Therefore, the more tickets you have the more you are likely to win.
By buying more tickets you are improving your chances of winning.

This is common sense and I have no idea why some people think that they are independent like the bets in games like dice, roulette, baccarat etc. More lottery tickets increase winning chances and risk at the same time.

This is why whales usually buy lots of tickets while the small scale gamblers purchase just a single or couple of tickets.

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

The reason for this is only luck. With more tickets you only increase your probability of winning a lottery but there is no condition that if you hold more tickets you will win more. Some people only buy more tickets thinking the one with more tickets will definitely win, but this not the case.

[Yamifoud]

Therefore, the more tickets you have the more you are likely to win.
By buying more tickets you are improving your chances of winning.

This is common sense and I have no idea why some people think that they are independent like the bets in games like dice, roulette, baccarat etc. More lottery tickets increase winning chances and risk at the same time.

This is why whales usually buy lots of tickets while the small scale gamblers purchase just a single or couple of tickets.

Because whales can afford to buy more without worrying if they will lose. Unlike how these small-scale gamblers ( especially poor people) who have limited sources of income and they are hoping for a single ticket will make them rich instantly by winning the jackpot prize. Unfortunately, this would never change how lotteries work, and buying one ticket has very slim to winning and so in the end, only rich people got the prize and become richer.

[iv4n]

...

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

The reason for this is only luck. With more tickets you only increase your probability of winning a lottery but there is no condition that if you hold more tickets you will win more. Some people only buy more tickets thinking the one with more tickets will definitely win, but this not the case.

The lottery is all about luck... I think that even with more tickets chances of hitting the jackpot are still slim. I never played state (or any other) lottery, I don't see some entertainment in that, I am more for some other gambling games, more dynamic ones.

I don't like lotteries, at least I don't like to buy tickets. But I like to collect tickets with playing (wagering, depositing...), it's something I find interesting.

[Poker Player]

The lottery is all about luck...

Well, actually as with gambling in general, it's all about EV. As far as I know, lotteries return in prizes between 50% and 70% of the proceeds, so the EV ranges between -30% and minus 50% and if we think that most people what they do when they win a small prize is to buy lottery tickets again, we can see the interest compounding but in a negative sense.

There are also some particularities, such as when there is a jackpot, where it can be EV+ but if they are of the Euromillions type in which the jackpot is concentrated in the first prize, we must think that we do not have many lives for the EV to materialize.

The bottom line is that the lottery is not worth playing from a mathematical point of view, only from an emotional point of view.

[maydna]

The lottery is all about luck... I think that even with more tickets chances of hitting the jackpot are still slim. I never played state (or any other) lottery, I don't see some entertainment in that, I am more for some other gambling games, more dynamic ones.

I don't like lotteries, at least I don't like to buy tickets. But I like to collect tickets with playing (wagering, depositing...), it's something I find interesting.

At least people thought that if they could buy more tickets, their chances of getting the prize would be bigger too. That's why people continue to buy lottery tickets because they still hope to be the winner and be able to bring home the prize. They never think winning is difficult but still love buying lottery tickets. Sometimes there is a special preoccupation with seeing the ticket numbers that can come out so the ticket owner becomes the winner. And for those who lose, they still don't stop buying at a later time because they want to be the winner.

[Haunebu]

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

All of this is common sense. Who doesn't know any of this stuff? Miracles keep happening now and then in the world of gambling due to the randomness factor which is why so many small-scale gamblers keep playing lotteries regularly to try and change their lives.

However, the chances for someone who purchased many tickets are drastically higher in comparison and they don't really require miracles.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

All of this is common sense. Who doesn't know any of this stuff? Miracles keep happening now and then in the world of gambling due to the randomness factor which is why so many small-scale gamblers keep playing lotteries regularly to try and change their lives.

However, the chances for someone who purchased many tickets are drastically higher in comparison and they don't really require miracles.

What the first user said is very true, and in other words, it's to say that most lotteries are rigged, this is if I was to assume that those who bought a few tickets and those who bought very many tickets all have equal chances, but like you said, those with more tickets does always stand a better chance of winning the lottery, but that has never been a guarantee though.

Aside national lotteries, FreeBitco lottery is one I participate in almost every week, many a times I've seen players with as little as 100 to 150 tickets winning the number one spot, which is the highest, while those with lots of tickets end up with the smaller prices.

[TimeTeller]

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

All of this is common sense. Who doesn't know any of this stuff? Miracles keep happening now and then in the world of gambling due to the randomness factor which is why so many small-scale gamblers keep playing lotteries regularly to try and change their lives.

However, the chances for someone who purchased many tickets are drastically higher in comparison and they don't really require miracles.

What the first user said is very true, and in other words, it's to say that most lotteries are rigged, this is if I was to assume that those who bought a few tickets and those who bought very many tickets all have equal chances, but like you said, those with more tickets does always stand a better chance of winning the lottery, but that has never been a guarantee though.

Aside national lotteries, FreeBitco lottery is one I participate in almost every week, many a times I've seen players with as little as 100 to 150 tickets winning the number one spot, which is the highest, while those with lots of tickets end up with the smaller prices.

Because luck is in play on this game like most casino games. So the number of tickets you purchased is not the determinant factor to win.
But the more tickets you have, the better chance of winning, but as you said, still not a guarantee to win.
When you play the lottery, you have this hope of winning, however, need to accept the fact that the chance of winning is still small.
So if you are placing bets on lottery, it means, you don't expect that you will win, but you will be happy if you hit one.
What I like about government lotteries is that some of their proceeds are going to charity and helping people in need.

[summonerrk]

...

The lottery is all about luck...

Luck is certainly one of the factors that influence the result in gambling. But in general, gambling consists of pure mathematics, and luck is just the triggering of a chance. The "distance" - the number of outcomes - also affects. Why do they say that the casino always wins? Because it is taken into account that there is no 50-50 for the player. There are 49 to 51 in favor of the casino. This is with a large number of outcomes. It turns out that the more we play, in a sense, we tend to lose more and more.
That is why if I receive bonus money from the casino, I make only one bet. So that the number of outcomes is minimal.  Because you can't fool mathematics. But you can try to predict to some extent what will happen with a certain number of games.

[DoublerHunter]

The lottery is all about luck... I think that even with more tickets chances of hitting the jackpot are still slim. I never played state (or any other) lottery, I don't see some entertainment in that, I am more for some other gambling games, more dynamic ones.

I don't like lotteries, at least I don't like to buy tickets. But I like to collect tickets with playing (wagering, depositing...), it's something I find interesting.

At least people thought that if they could buy more tickets, their chances of getting the prize would be bigger too. That's why people continue to buy lottery tickets because they still hope to be the winner and be able to bring home the prize. They never think winning is difficult but still love buying lottery tickets. Sometimes there is a special preoccupation with seeing the ticket numbers that can come out so the ticket owner becomes the winner. And for those who lose, they still don't stop buying at a later time because they want to be the winner.

^There are people who really want to find their luck at low odds because, for me, it is understandable that people believe buying more lottery tickets increases their chances of winning the prize? The hope of becoming a winner and taking home the coveted prize drives them to continue purchasing tickets. Despite the known difficulties of winning, individuals remain enthusiastic about buying lottery tickets. There is a certain fascination with anticipating the numbers that probably be drawn, as it brings forth the possibility of being declared the lucky winner. Even for those who have experienced losses, the desire to eventually secure a win keeps them motivated to buy tickets in subsequent attempts. It's a testament to the enduring optimism and the allure of the possibility of winning that keeps people engaged in this pursuit.

[Lanatsa]

The lottery is all about luck... I think that even with more tickets chances of hitting the jackpot are still slim. I never played state (or any other) lottery, I don't see some entertainment in that, I am more for some other gambling games, more dynamic ones.

I don't like lotteries, at least I don't like to buy tickets. But I like to collect tickets with playing (wagering, depositing...), it's something I find interesting.

At least people thought that if they could buy more tickets, their chances of getting the prize would be bigger too. That's why people continue to buy lottery tickets because they still hope to be the winner and be able to bring home the prize. They never think winning is difficult but still love buying lottery tickets. Sometimes there is a special preoccupation with seeing the ticket numbers that can come out so the ticket owner becomes the winner. And for those who lose, they still don't stop buying at a later time because they want to be the winner.

^There are people who really want to find their luck at low odds because, for me, it is understandable that people believe buying more lottery tickets increases their chances of winning the prize? The hope of becoming a winner and taking home the coveted prize drives them to continue purchasing tickets. Despite the known difficulties of winning, individuals remain enthusiastic about buying lottery tickets. There is a certain fascination with anticipating the numbers that probably be drawn, as it brings forth the possibility of being declared the lucky winner. Even for those who have experienced losses, the desire to eventually secure a win keeps them motivated to buy tickets in subsequent attempts. It's a testament to the enduring optimism and the allure of the possibility of winning that keeps people engaged in this pursuit.

Who doesnt want on hitting up the jackpot? We know that this is a life changing opportunity on which you could be able to win up huge money and could able to to buy all the things that you do want.
We know that odds or chances is really that slim on which it would really be just that normal that we would really be having those kind of hopes and dreams that we could be able to get or hit the jackpot.
It is really that so easy to say but it is really that hard to be done considering the odds which is really close to impossible.

Knowing on the ticket price which it is really that cheap then people wont really be bothered on spending it up. We can buy how many tickets as much as we want on day to day basis considering
its cheap but if you do have that kind of behavior then you would really be finding this to be none ideal because if those tickets amount or value would be accumulate then for sure you would really be having
those talks that you should have at least saved up those money for long time and that would be considerable.

[serjent05]

The lottery is all about luck... I think that even with more tickets chances of hitting the jackpot are still slim. I never played state (or any other) lottery, I don't see some entertainment in that, I am more for some other gambling games, more dynamic ones.

I don't like lotteries, at least I don't like to buy tickets. But I like to collect tickets with playing (wagering, depositing...), it's something I find interesting.

At least people thought that if they could buy more tickets, their chances of getting the prize would be bigger too. That's why people continue to buy lottery tickets because they still hope to be the winner and be able to bring home the prize. They never think winning is difficult but still love buying lottery tickets. Sometimes there is a special preoccupation with seeing the ticket numbers that can come out so the ticket owner becomes the winner. And for those who lose, they still don't stop buying at a later time because they want to be the winner.

^There are people who really want to find their luck at low odds because, for me, it is understandable that people believe buying more lottery tickets increases their chances of winning the prize? The hope of becoming a winner and taking home the coveted prize drives them to continue purchasing tickets. Despite the known difficulties of winning, individuals remain enthusiastic about buying lottery tickets. There is a certain fascination with anticipating the numbers that probably be drawn, as it brings forth the possibility of being declared the lucky winner. Even for those who have experienced losses, the desire to eventually secure a win keeps them motivated to buy tickets in subsequent attempts. It's a testament to the enduring optimism and the allure of the possibility of winning that keeps people engaged in this pursuit.

Who doesnt want on hitting up the jackpot? We know that this is a life changing opportunity on which you could be able to win up huge money and could able to to buy all the things that you do want.
We know that odds or chances is really that slim on which it would really be just that normal that we would really be having those kind of hopes and dreams that we could be able to get or hit the jackpot.
It is really that so easy to say but it is really that hard to be done considering the odds which is really close to impossible.

I really know the feeling of hitting a jackpot, but not on the lottery though but on FortuneJack.  But it is a good amount since it is worth around $20k  from a 100 satoshi bet.  It is really exciting and breathtaking when I found out that I hit the pattern for the jackpot.

Knowing on the ticket price which it is really that cheap then people wont really be bothered on spending it up. We can buy how many tickets as much as we want on day to day basis considering
its cheap but if you do have that kind of behavior then you would really be finding this to be none ideal because if those tickets amount or value would be accumulate then for sure you would really be having
those talks that you should have at least saved up those money for long time and that would be considerable.

Yeah, when I clean our cabinet, I saw the lottery ticket piling on one of the drawer and it was too many.  I could have buy a motorcycle from the accumulated amount of the tickets I bought.

[o48o]

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

The reason for this is only luck. With more tickets you only increase your probability of winning a lottery but there is no condition that if you hold more tickets you will win more. Some people only buy more tickets thinking the one with more tickets will definitely win, but this not the case.

They are pretty transparent about their audits and big ones are more then heavily regulated. Shady ones obviously can be anything but i think the idea about rigged lotteries comes from the fact that it's so rare to win the jackpot that no one knows or even sees anyone winning it. And it's hard to believe something you can't see in your own eyes.

Just go any of the sites and they will be open about their audits and transparency. If they are not they are crazy not to do that. You can also check organizations keeping gambling in check and laws of the area lottery you are playing is on.

[noormcs5]

...

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

The reason for this is only luck. With more tickets you only increase your probability of winning a lottery but there is no condition that if you hold more tickets you will win more. Some people only buy more tickets thinking the one with more tickets will definitely win, but this not the case.

The lottery is all about luck... I think that even with more tickets chances of hitting the jackpot are still slim. I never played state (or any other) lottery, I don't see some entertainment in that, I am more for some other gambling games, more dynamic ones.

I don't like lotteries, at least I don't like to buy tickets. But I like to collect tickets with playing (wagering, depositing...), it's something I find interesting.

Most people being participate in lotteries not because they want fun but indeed they want the winning amount. And the prizes in the lottery are very high and therefore they attarct the gamblers.

Being a gambler, everyone must have an experience of lottery and must have participated in it in thier gambling life, however only a few of them may have won.

[Porfirii]

But do you know that if the lottery is not rigged and is transparent, sometimes a person with only one or two tickets can end up winning while the whales who bought a lot of tickets remain empty handed.

The reason for this is only luck. With more tickets you only increase your probability of winning a lottery but there is no condition that if you hold more tickets you will win more. Some people only buy more tickets thinking the one with more tickets will definitely win, but this not the case.

They are pretty transparent about their audits and big ones are more then heavily regulated. Shady ones obviously can be anything but i think the idea about rigged lotteries comes from the fact that it's so rare to win the jackpot that no one knows or even sees anyone winning it. And it's hard to believe something you can't see in your own eyes.

Just go any of the sites and they will be open about their audits and transparency. If they are not they are crazy not to do that. You can also check organizations keeping gambling in check and laws of the area lottery you are playing is on.

I remember that we discussed in this Gambling section about something like that not long ago (although I can't find the topic right now).

The news was that, in certain lottery, the winning numbers turned out to be almost the same in two consecutive days: something like 5 numbers out of 6 coincided, which is almost impossible. As a result, many people got angry because they were sure that the lottery was rigged.

But if you take into account how many different lotteries are played every day worldwide and the fact that luck is capricious, anyone can realise that it is just a matter of time before said coincidences happen.

As you said, most organisations are open about their system because, the way lotteries are designed, it is more than enough to maintain profitability without any shady maneuver. I'm not saying there aren't rigged lotteries, just that in most cases the incentive to rig them is not worth it.