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Author Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer  (Read 387454 times)
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thefunkybits
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August 12, 2014, 12:46:29 AM
 #3161

LTC is getting destroyed...

Time to make way for Monero  Grin
saddambitcoin
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August 12, 2014, 12:55:06 AM
 #3162

LTC is getting destroyed...

Time to make way for Monero  Grin

interesting how LTC dumps right as XMR stops the downtrend.

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August 12, 2014, 12:59:35 AM
 #3163

interesting how LTC dumps right as XMR stops the downtrend.

LTC vs. XMR  Cheesy


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August 12, 2014, 01:05:21 AM
 #3164

I suppose it could be coincidence, but it also could be a litecoin whale selling into other alt coins including XMR.  Are any other alts going bananas?
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August 12, 2014, 01:05:30 AM
 #3165

LTC is getting destroyed...

Time to make way for Monero  Grin
I'm no fan of LTC, but I seriously doubt it's going down just yet.
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August 12, 2014, 01:44:24 AM
 #3166

I suppose it could be coincidence, but it also could be a litecoin whale selling into other alt coins including XMR.  Are any other alts going bananas?

VIA has been moving.
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August 12, 2014, 01:46:17 AM
 #3167

I suppose it could be coincidence, but it also could be a litecoin whale selling into other alt coins including XMR.  Are any other alts going bananas?

XCN up 100% on relatively large volume.  Unlike XMR, it competes directly with LTC for the retail transaction market share and title of 'Best BTC Fork.'  VIA is doing well too, up 33%.

However, LTC and XMR are range bound and already enjoy generous market caps.  XCN is tiny in comparison, with much more room to grow in orders of magnitude.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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August 12, 2014, 01:47:01 AM
 #3168

I suppose it could be coincidence, but it also could be a litecoin whale selling into other alt coins including XMR.  Are any other alts going bananas?

I don't think it is entirely coincidence.

Many people have observed for a long time (i.e. before Monero) that having a second coin might be good for diversification and safety reasons (if the first coin fails the second coin can at least continue to function, and perhaps replace the first while avoiding the cause(s) of its failure). However, for those very reasons, it is far better than the second coin not be a bitcoin clone (see "technology monoculture"). Even for what it is supposedly trying to be ("silver to bitcoin's gold"), Litecoin is a terrible second coin.

It is hard to see any coin other than Monero in a credible position to replace LTC.
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August 12, 2014, 01:52:18 AM
 #3169

However, LTC and XMR are range bound and already enjoy generous market caps.  XCN is tiny in comparison, with much more room to grow in orders of magnitude.

This is nonsense. Project out the XCN market cap at the current price just a few months (much less a few years) and it is not tiny. It is smaller certainly, but not tiny, and not even smaller by orders of magnitude. XCN has 100 times the base coin supply of XMR and while it is fair to consider emission curve, you can't ignore the effect this has on price.  XCN times 100 is over half the price of XMR already. Perhaps you could justify another factor of 5 based on emission curve (though I disagree the number is that high). Even then you don't get to orders of magnitude.

XCN is fairly priced right now in my opinion. I was a buyer at 1300-1500 and I said so.


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August 12, 2014, 02:00:51 AM
Last edit: August 12, 2014, 02:33:32 AM by ArticMine
 #3170

I do have a question about this.  (I'm very very simpleton in crypto terms - so please don't eat me)

I understand in theory the blockchain shouldn't be an issue.  Even cryptonote (I was reading about how the blockchain when it grew to BTC size would be 10X as big as BTC).  But as a consumer downloading a 20GB database is a fairly big deal with my internet connection.  (I understand I can use litewallets that sync with other servers)

But isn't the blockchain size fairly relevant to keeping decentralization in the sense that bitcoin was originally invented - to be duplicated across hundreds of thousands of consumer machines?  Even at 20GB - with my internet connection I really don't want to download the entire blockchain ...

Yes - as it stands it's definitely too large for consumer machines. The thing is, even something like mini-blockchain is only a temporary fix, as any cryptocurrency that scales up to meet massive global demand will find that home Internet connections (even in 5-10 years time) will simply not have the low-latency and speed required to maintain a full node. I remain unconvinced that there exists a better solution for "Visa/Mastercard scale" than off-chain transactions that are settled back on the main chain on-demand or periodically. A company like PayPal or Google could ostensibly operate something like this, although it's not inconceivable for Visa or Mastercard themselves to provide this.

I am going to offer a different perspective here namely that of a member of the baby boomer generation. Most members of my generation are not very technical but some of us are. In 1979 after completing my undergraduate degree I was working as a research assistant and wrote a program in FORTRAN that required over 2MB of RAM. I got an error saying that my program exceeded the total memory capacity of the university's mainframe computer. We are talking about a major Canadian university! Now fast forward 11 years and I bought a computer with 4MB of RAM. This was a typical consumer computer somewhat on the low end. 10 years before in 1969 the Apollo moon landing occurred, at the time one of mankind’s greatest achievements. Here is a link on the computers in the lander. Memory measured in kilobytes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer#Memory Having lived with Moore's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law and its bandwith and storage counter parts for most of my life, I confident that it will easily solve the "bloat" issue for crypto-currency just as it made credit and debit cards possible. By the way would the current VISA transaction rate have been possible in 1959 when American Express and Diner's Club credit cards were launched? Not even close by several orders of magnitude.  

Edit: The real risk here is artificial limits such as the 1 MB blocksize limit in XBT and the debate surrounding it. The fear of bloat can cripple a coin.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
iCEBREAKER
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August 12, 2014, 02:19:56 AM
 #3171

It is hard to see any coin other than Monero in a credible position to replace LTC.

This is nonsense.  Litecoin is a BTC fork; Monero isn't.  Monero is for private transactions, Litecoin for public.  Their use cases don't have much overlap.  Maybe you just meant "replace" in terms of 2nd position by market cap.

Monero competes with Bitcoin in terms of a heavy footprint vs robust features trade-off.  Litecoin competes with Cryptonite, for the daily use role of a Visa-killer.

BTC and XMR blockchain space is like gold and naturally commands higher transaction fees than more scalable and convenient complements.

XMR shows the most potential to be a BTC killer.
XCN shows the most potential to be a LTC killer.

That's why I hlod plenty of both!   Cool


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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August 12, 2014, 02:28:25 AM
 #3172

It is hard to see any coin other than Monero in a credible position to replace LTC.

This is nonsense.  Litecoin is a BTC fork; Monero isn't.  Monero is for private transactions, Litecoin for public.  Their use cases don't have much overlap.  Maybe you just meant "replace" in terms of 2nd position by market cap.

Monero competes with Bitcoin in terms of a heavy footprint vs robust features trade-off.  Litecoin competes with Cryptonite, for the daily use role of a Visa-killer.

BTC and XMR blockchain space is like gold and naturally commands higher transaction fees than more scalable and convenient complements.

XMR shows the most potential to be a BTC killer.
XCN shows the most potential to be a LTC killer.

That's why I hlod plenty of both!   Cool

LTC also has the 1MB blocksize limit so it cannot be a VISA-killer. I would not underestimate the potential of XMR to scale to VISA like transaction rates, because of Moore's law.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 12, 2014, 02:50:38 AM
 #3173

LTC also has the 1MB blocksize limit so it cannot be a VISA-killer. I would not underestimate the potential of XMR to scale to VISA like transaction rates, because of Moore's law.

As an optimistic extropian type, I am more likely to overestimate Moore's law.  Tongue

Regardless, ring signatures are currently believed intrinsically incompatible with mini-blockchains, so there is a substantial window of opportunity for XCN to kill Visa before XMR's maxi-blockchain bloat is accommodated at the portable personal banking device level.

The objection to Visa-scaling full nodes on smartphones is bandwidth, but that is also increasing rapidly, and we haven't even began to use nano-transaction powered ad hoc mesh networking on FOSS/FOSH phones...

When such SnowdenPhones replace our current ObamaPhones, we can all run full Monero nodes.  Until that time, XCN works just fine:

Scaling up to 6 billion people and micro transactions (more frequent transactions) might present a scaling problem. I've looked at Lamport signatures schemes that can verify 100,000+ transactions per second on a single i7 cpu. Since verifying nodes tend to be pools with considerably more resources (amortized over a large amount of hashrate), then a 10 - 100 cpu farm (or a Tilera 64 core cpu) is not unfathomable without destroying decentralization of pools.

Long-term the solution is simple. An ASIC for verification will scale sufficiently to 6 billion and micro transactions.

In short, no problem! Mini-block chain addresses the problem of block chain size and its impact on decentralization of mining.

XCN is sitting here waiting to kill Visa, we just have to ask...


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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Buy XMR with fiat
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August 12, 2014, 03:31:55 AM
Last edit: August 12, 2014, 03:59:31 AM by AnonyMint
 #3174

Blockchain bloat is a desirable feature for Bitcoin because it means mining is centralized which is exactly what TPTB want, and so they will continue to endorse and push Bitcoin for as long as centralization isn't fixed.

The threat those controllers face is (as is their dilemma with the IPO for Ethereum) that centralization doesn't maximize network efforts (scaling), because as Peter R showed, the price (or marketcap) is correlated to N squared, where N is some proxy for the number of users.

Yet they prefer to keep crypto-currency narrow in scope and adoption, so the world has to accept their digital fiat. There are many powerful vested interests such as the banks.

Simply, any coins are are Bitcoin forks, will fail. Anything noteworthy on an altcoin, like mini-blockchain, Bitcoin can/may incorporate in the future, leaving said altcoin in the dust.

Nothing will be incorporated into Bitcoin, unless and until there is a significant threat to market share. But if ever there is such a serious threat, it will be too late for Bitcoin to recover (due to the upstart having a much higher exponential rate of growth otherwise it wouldn't have happened). I did some rough curve matching and posited that Bitcoin is growing log-logistically, not logistically.

The $trillion question is will such an altcoin emerge. Anything less in my view is "just playing". I believe the future of the world is at-stake. (Fuck I have bad health today, after some strong days!)

Stealth addresses from the genesis block on (an important privacy aspect) are one of the few things they can't do, not without a roll-over to a new genesis block with all outputs being reissued to stealth addresses computed from existing privkeys (read: practically impossible).

Where can I learn more about this? I am unfamiliar, at least how your described it.

For everything else, there's MasterCard Bitcoin.

Afair, MasterCard has insoluble technical issues around atomicity. I think we need a new block chain to do Turing-complete correctly.

Also, it would be politically impossible to change the maximum number of Bitcoins (and hence a change in the block reward schedule).

And thus you can never get 0 tx fees in Bitcoin.

To even host a full node in a few years will likely consume terabytes to petabytes of data in a month -- this goes for Bitcoin, let alone any of the alts. If you can provide this bandwidth, you can be a full node. As it stands, without running dedicated hosts on corporate connections, most people will never be able to run full nodes, regardless of even their storage space. The real issue restricting centralization is bandwidth, and I doubt this will ever be solved, because you need all the block and tx data that is shipped out across the network. Gavin's latest proposal is a way to optimize it to perhaps 20-50% less bandwidth usage (aside from making syncing much more rapid), but the bandwidth issue still exists and is severe.

Terabytes are available now on cheap VPS accounts. Bandwidth is scaling by Moore's law too.

Decentralization doesn't necessarily mean everyone runs a full node, rather than at least one or two pools don't control > 50% of the hashrate, as is the case with Bitcoin.

There are problems with both. Mining at least, has some incentive. There is currently zero incentive to run a node at all, and the number of nodes has been dropping even as usage has increased.

This is the elephant in room (currently insoluble) problem. The largest Bitcoin pool doesn't charge fees because it is subsidized by the largest ASIC miner.

Something interesting that's happening is that alternative Bitcoin implementations are popping up, from Conformal's btcd to Bits of Proof's enterprise Bitcoin server and so on. If there is a compelling feature and enough demand for it, and the Bitcoin developers are too narrow-minded/resolute/whatever, one of those alternative implementations will offer it.

That is unless as I (and I believe smooth?) argued upthread, the large pools are really in control, given the consensus doesn't want to split Bitcoin into two or more competing forks.

Thus I believe Gavin is not in control and he can be spanked if he gets out-of-line. I bet he won't implement any feature without consulting with the pools and other of powers-that-be.

Even better - a lot of the seemingly "revolutionary" stuff being done in many altcoins can be implemented in an alternative client due to the flexibility of Bitcoin's pay-to-hash system, and existing mining pools can continue running the "regular" Bitcoin implementation and mine those transactions without even knowing about their cleverness.

Any examples?

XCN is sitting here waiting to kill Visa, we just have to ask...

The sober, factual quality of this thread declines.

It is hard to see any coin other than Monero in a credible position to replace LTC.

Anonymity != network effects

Anonymity is a feature a few people want right now. It is a not a feature that catapults you to compete with Bitcoin.

The capital that is going to try to hide from the coming G20 capital controls and wealth hunt will arguably not buy into an altcoin that is not reasonably mainstream.

Neither is XCN's MBC. Nor XCN's 0 confirmations feature which I argued is insecure in the MBC thread (unless it changed or I wasn't completely informed at the time I studied it).

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August 12, 2014, 04:04:13 AM
 #3175

XCN is sitting here waiting to kill Visa, we just have to ask...

The sober, factual quality of this thread declines.


Why people are giving a known scammer iCEBREAKER the time of day is beyond me, it's obvious he has moved on from hashfast and now onto the next project he will leech onto, being CryptoNite. In fact I will stay away from CryptoNite just because such a scammer is currently the CryptoNite number one PR man.

At least when I was invested with ActiveMining I told new people not to ever invest, unlike what iCEBREAKER did for iCEDRILL, I know loads of people that invested because of iCEBREAKER, and lost thousands.
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August 12, 2014, 04:18:49 AM
 #3176

Risto, mswing from the silver forum we used to belong to is calling for Revelation to begin 2019.

I don't need to base my concern only on the Biblical, as I see Armstrong's computer model is so correlated, and Armstrong's A.I. computer model predicted at at 1990s conference everything that has transpired since. I watched in 2011-12 as Armstrong predicted:

1. Gold's decline.

2. USA stock market advance.

3. Ukraine as the hotspot.

I mention that here to give weight to the concern I expressed in my prior post, that we not see Bitcoin nor fantastical dreams of wealth as our primary threat model and objective.

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August 12, 2014, 04:21:02 AM
 #3177

Risto, mswing from the silver forum we used to belong to is calling for Revelation to begin 2019.

I mention that here to give weight to the concern I expressed in my prior post, that we not see Bitcoin nor fantastical dreams of wealth as our primary threat model and objective.
Sorry, need to clarify, you believe in God?
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August 12, 2014, 04:22:57 AM
 #3178

I edited my prior post to explain I don't need to rely only on the Biblical to express that concern.

I'd rather keep my theological orientation private (it is more complex than believe or not believe).

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August 12, 2014, 04:22:59 AM
 #3179

Risto, mswing from the silver forum we used to belong to is calling for Revelation to begin 2019.

I mention that here to give weight to the concern I expressed in my prior post, that we not see Bitcoin nor fantastical dreams of wealth as our primary threat model and objective.
Sorry, need to clarify, you believe in God?

It shouldn't matter if you believe in God, unless that believe leads you to your conclusions.

A better question would be, does Anonymint derive his conclusions from his possible biblical beliefs?
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August 12, 2014, 04:23:37 AM
 #3180

Just wondering, not out to crucify anyone. I'm curious because I find Anonymint to be a very intelligent person, but the constant biblical references had me confused. As to their relevance to any of the subject matter discussed on this forum. As to the need to inject religious content into a cryptography discussion.
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