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hodlmybtc
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July 03, 2015, 08:16:26 PM |
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I'm thinking that after the Greece situation is partially resolved, and LTC halving occurs - that it will fall back to $2. Of course there could always be another pump before then. BTC might fall a much smaller amount after Greece situation (like 2-10%).
Doubt that LTC will fall back to $2 that fast, LTC sentiment feels pretty bullish at the moment so it probably won't go from $4 to $2 AFTER the halving. A lot of Chinese stock market money is flowing into cryptocurrencies at the moment. This is just a forecast what will happen if stock markets around the globe are seeing the same drops as China sees now. Watch out with shorting LTC, I also got burned shorting a couple hundred LTC. I also think that the if Greece is sort of resolved (it will never resolve fully), BTC won't go down much. All over Europe BTC interest is steadily growing because of the Greece situation. If we break the long term downtrend decisively and clear some resistances at 280/295/315/350/400 who knows what we're about to witness. Would be epic if the ETF is launched at the right time when the rocket is leaving. |
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It is a common myth that Bitcoin is ruled by a majority of miners. This is not true. Bitcoin miners "vote" on the ordering of transactions, but that's all they do. They can't vote to change the network rules.
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nrd525 (OP)
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July 06, 2015, 09:04:18 PM |
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LTC is increasing at an increasing rate. Bubbles tend to have their greatest rate of increase before they pop. And crashes do as well, before they reverse, though typically the crashes are faster. However, I have little idea as to what a LTC bubble peak will look like. There doesn't seem to be a good historical comparison as the last major bubble in the fall of 2013 coincided with the BTC bubble. By contrast this time BTC is only up 25% from the bottom.
Greece voted against austerity with an unexpected overwhelming majority. But the Euro and stock markets (other than China which is in bubble mode) are reacting fine.
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Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
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ejinte
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July 07, 2015, 12:51:34 PM |
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May I ask how many dollars you are in red?
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nrd525 (OP)
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July 08, 2015, 07:56:16 PM |
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I'm shorting 1600 LTC contracts with a cost basis of $2.55. So currently down around $5700 (at $6.10 LTC). Extremely bad.
I'm up around $2000 on BTC (from the recent $220 bottom), which obviously isn't enough.
Today we pumped from $5.30 to $6.20 (15%, by contrast BTC/USD is up 1.6% in the past 24 hours). The rate at which we are breaking dollar barriers ($2, $3, $4, $5, and $6) is increasing and the log trend line is exponential. However the big question is whether it is exponential enough that we are going to crash soon?
I'm guessing that we'll see an increasing number of pumps as we approach the Sunday deadline for a Greece deal. Though at some point traders are going to want to cash in. Or traders will realize that the disconnect between LTC and BTC is too large. What would be very bad is if the deadline gets pushed back again.
Or maybe Bitcoin will solve the block size debate and that will cause LTC to crash. My view is that people love to debate things. There are some differences in how people view the role of Bitcoin, but it looks like applying some basic anti-spam filter and/or adopting slightly higher transaction fees can solve the problem. That will hopefully be combined with an increase in the block size, but even if it isn't - we should be good for at least another year.
reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/ is getting inundated with LTC posts. There is a mix of people who think they've made tons of money (who haven't sold), who actually made tons of money, who want to get in but think it is too late, who think LTC has potential and is actually worth the high prices, and those who think that it is a pump.
BFX - LTC shorting is at 193,500 (up 46k in the past 24 hours). The problem with this is that shorting is generally not at a peak when the bubble peaks, as most people are margin called. Unless the pumpers are lucky enough to not just sell their entire holdings, but also take a negative position on the way down. That'd be epic profit.
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Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
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nrd525 (OP)
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July 08, 2015, 08:22:04 PM |
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Where is the best analysis of LTC price? So far, reddit/r/BitcoinMarkets is the best I've found.
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Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
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Morecoin Freeman
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July 08, 2015, 08:24:33 PM |
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Unfortunately l have no reads on litecoin. Let's hope you get out at a favorable price . Hang in there buddy.  What is your read on bitcoin? I feel like ~$275 might be the top. We are overbought on multiple time frames and the momentum seems to have stalled. |
Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
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nrd525 (OP)
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July 08, 2015, 10:41:44 PM |
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I'm in BTC for the long term (so 1-2 years or more). I was just shorting LTC for the short term, but now it is looking like a longer term than expected (could take a month or more to do a 80-100% retrace).
I think BTC will go down after the Greek drama and block drama resolves. But this is against a longer upward trend which could over-rule it. Short term we could easily go anywhere in the $230-$305 range.
On the possibly very negative side, the MtGox bankruptcy is still pending (for the late fall of 2015 or possibly into mid 2016). If they auction off the bitcoins that will be a huge event.
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Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
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nrd525 (OP)
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July 08, 2015, 10:54:03 PM |
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http://ibankbitcoins.comInteresting site. Includes their trades. He's been bullish on BTC from $230 to the present.
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Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
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ejinte
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July 08, 2015, 11:30:21 PM |
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I was shorting BTC/LTC when it was at 0.012, but closed it with a lose when it started climbing up and went long instead. But got scared and closed that before that huge pump to 0.015. I hope this works out for you, but to be honest, it's not looking good and I don't think we will be back at $2.5 for a long time.
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hodlmybtc
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July 09, 2015, 02:54:42 AM |
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There is some good analysis on the tradingview bitcoin chat, charts of that chat are also published at whaleclub.co, also you can search tradingview for idea's.
Why you didn't use a stop loss on LTC shorts? It's pretty dangerous what you're doing now, but if you think you can handle some more pressure and price comes down after to profitable levels, good luck!
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bigtimespaghetti
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bigtimespaghetti.com
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July 09, 2015, 05:54:06 AM |
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That LTC is bonkers. It's one hell of a spike. Closed my long waaay too early :-/
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nrd525 (OP)
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July 09, 2015, 06:36:08 AM |
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LTC Past $7 (in Yuan at least). End of bubble is near.
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Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
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Kevinrasf
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July 09, 2015, 07:13:27 AM |
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LTC Past $7 (in Yuan at least). End of bubble is near.
I expected the crash to happen yesterday, but It wouldn't surprise me if it even goes up today and even tomorrow. |
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klee
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July 09, 2015, 07:20:57 AM |
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LTC Past $7 (in Yuan at least). End of bubble is near.
I expected the crash to happen yesterday, but It wouldn't surprise me if it even goes up today and even tomorrow. Maybe it won't happen soon. Maybe a big part of BTC whales are fed up with BTC's centralisation and are pouring a shitload of funds, switching to LTC... |
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Kevinrasf
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July 09, 2015, 07:25:18 AM |
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LTC Past $7 (in Yuan at least). End of bubble is near.
I expected the crash to happen yesterday, but It wouldn't surprise me if it even goes up today and even tomorrow. Maybe it won't happen soon. Maybe a big part of BTC whales are fed up with BTC's centralisation and are pouring a shitload of funds, switching to LTC... Thats something that could be true. There are so many reasons that could be behind the LTC Spike that it's hard to predict what the real reason is. |
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klee
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July 09, 2015, 07:27:06 AM |
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LTC Past $7 (in Yuan at least). End of bubble is near.
I expected the crash to happen yesterday, but It wouldn't surprise me if it even goes up today and even tomorrow. Maybe it won't happen soon. Maybe a big part of BTC whales are fed up with BTC's centralisation and are pouring a shitload of funds, switching to LTC... Thats something that could be true. There are so many reasons that could be behind the LTC Spike that it's hard to predict what the real reason is. Halving, better Risk Reward for Chinese FOMO (easier to double from 5 to 10 than 500 to 1000), BTC laundering, etc |
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Kevinrasf
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July 09, 2015, 07:33:17 AM |
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LTC Past $7 (in Yuan at least). End of bubble is near.
I expected the crash to happen yesterday, but It wouldn't surprise me if it even goes up today and even tomorrow. Maybe it won't happen soon. Maybe a big part of BTC whales are fed up with BTC's centralisation and are pouring a shitload of funds, switching to LTC... Thats something that could be true. There are so many reasons that could be behind the LTC Spike that it's hard to predict what the real reason is. Halving, better Risk Reward for Chinese FOMO (easier to double from 5 to 10 than 500 to 1000), BTC laundering, etc Yes indeed, putting it like that does make investing in LTC more attractive then BTC. |
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klee
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July 09, 2015, 07:39:07 AM |
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LTC Past $7 (in Yuan at least). End of bubble is near.
I expected the crash to happen yesterday, but It wouldn't surprise me if it even goes up today and even tomorrow. Maybe it won't happen soon. Maybe a big part of BTC whales are fed up with BTC's centralisation and are pouring a shitload of funds, switching to LTC... Thats something that could be true. There are so many reasons that could be behind the LTC Spike that it's hard to predict what the real reason is. Halving, better Risk Reward for Chinese FOMO (easier to double from 5 to 10 than 500 to 1000), BTC laundering, etc Yes indeed, putting it like that does make investing in LTC more attractive then BTC. Interesting thread. I'm not much for chart analysis, but something tells me that Bitcoin is about to make a big move, and if you are too impatient right now, you might get suckered into a big LTC pump and dump in the meantime. We'll see I guess.
It is EXTREMELY risky to trade LTC now, I agree. I will enter for a scalp at 7.5 up to 10-12. But if it goes 12.5 I will go all fuckin in with a stoploss always 3 boxes below the current top (live PnF) |
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nrd525 (OP)
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July 09, 2015, 07:48:26 AM |
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The popping of the Chinese stock market bubble, should be serving as a great example of what can happen with bubbles to all Chinese investors. For that matter, it should be influencing investors around the world as bubble popping stories are commonplace.
I think most of the LTC investors (in amount of money invested, not in number) know that it is a bubble and are consciously gambling.
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Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
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klee
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July 09, 2015, 07:50:13 AM |
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The popping of the Chinese stock market bubble, should be serving as a great example of what can happen with bubbles to all Chinese investors. For that matter, it should be influencing investors around the world as bubble popping stories are commonplace.
I think most of the LTC investors (in amount of money invested, not in number) know that it is a bubble and are consciously gambling.
Yeah, always use stoploss with this shit... |
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