nrd525 Market Tracker

[Kevinrasf]

The popping of the Chinese stock market bubble, should be serving as a great example of what can happen with bubbles to all Chinese investors.  For that matter, it should be influencing investors around the world as bubble popping stories are commonplace.

I think most of the LTC investors (in amount of money invested, not in number) know that it is a bubble and are consciously gambling.

Yeah, always use stoploss with this shit...

For sure, most people see these pumps as an gamble.

Yesterday there was a news article as well, about the Chinese people who put their retirement funds into stock exchanges or gamble it in a casino and hope for the best.

Wouldn't surprise me if they just choose Crypto as another form of gambling.

[nrd525]

Past 24 hours:
PPC up 30%
NMC up 26%
Both of these are close to the LTC/BTC 30% increase.

Doge is staying out of the pump.

I think the LTC bubble bursts this weekend.  Probably in the next 20 hours (Eg Friday in China).

BTC is stable.

I wrote this during the OkCoin LTC runup to 49.91.  Always interesting to see a strong push at such an early hour in China (4:40 AM).

[nrd525]

Closed my position at a big loss, but I hit it during the flash crash on BFX - so $5.89.  Okcoin is 15% or more above that. Weird crazy. 

[nrd525]

Now the crash spread to China.

Huobi BTC is $60 over BFX.

Crazy.

[nrd525]

LTC spread - BTCe 20% higher than BFX

[nrd525]

So as a clarification, I decided to close my LTC position when only BFX was crashing and it looked like a possible flash crash that might be affecting only one market.  BTCe and the Chinese markets were all holding relatively steady.

According to WhaleClub chat there was a DDOS attack on several exchanges.

How about that 20 hour prediction =)    12 hours after it, the market crashed.

For the record, my liquidation price was around $10.50 (mostly backed by BTC though - so dependent on that value). So I came very close to liquidation.

Also, I got back in with a 300 short at $5.38 after I realized that it was a general crash.

[bigtimespaghetti]

So as a clarification, I decided to close my position when only BFX was crashing and it looked like a possible flash crash that might be affecting only one market.  BTCe and the Chinese markets were all holding relatively steady.

According to WhaleClub chat there was a DDOS attack on several exchanges.

How about that 20 hour prediction =)

Was indeed a good call! This is the most bullish action we have seen in months. Exciting times.

[nrd525]

A person called "Fontas" was possibly behind most of the LTC pump. He has a reputation for being fairly effective.  You can send him 4 BTC to join his pump group.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/Fontas/

[bigtimespaghetti]

A person called "Fontas" was possibly behind most of the LTC pump. He has a reputation for being fairly effective.  You can send him 4 BTC to join his pump group.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/Fontas/

That's quite the business model he has going there. But yeah, I have heard a alot about him on the btce trollbox, where he enjoys legendary status!

[ejinte]

I can't believe LTC is rising again. I'm short since $4.6. Will get margin called at ~$8.5. Doubt that it will go there though, but as BTC is rising, who knows.

[RoadTrain]

I can't believe LTC is rising again. I'm short since $4.6. Will get margin called at ~$8.5. Doubt that it will go there though, but as BTC is rising, who knows.

If BTC is rising, and other things being equal, it's quite natural that LTC/USD is rising as well - via simple arbitrage mechanisms.

[nrd525]

What is interesting about this LTC rise is that its rate of increase is much closer to BTC than it was during the LTC bubble.

I'm now up to shorting 500 LTC - cost basis of $5.05.  I think we're going down to at least $3.  But it could take months.  If the BTC 2013 crash is any indicator, we could see a bounce as high as $7.  So I have some money reserved for that possibility.  On the one hand LTC is more volatile - so you'd expect a bigger bounce potential.  But on other hand, people should realize that the pump is over.

I'm surprised that a pump group could work. Unless they handed their money over to a single trusted actor there would be great incentive to cash out early.


Meanwhile BTC goes up a lot.  $310!   Looks like Greece is leaving the Eurozone.  Things just get worse and worse.  Interestingly the overwhelming majority of Left Platform members of parliament (leftist faction within Syriza), who have 30% of Syriza's seats, even voted for the government's austerity proposal on Friday.  So Syriza has pretty much capitulated.  But the other Euro leaders still aren't happy and want them to sell off $50 billion of government assets.  It looks like Greece is going to leave the Euro and the rest of Europe will be relatively fine with it.

Another downside of my LTC short was that I lost 13 bitcoins.  So I'm not taking full advantage of the BTC rise.

[ejinte]

I think we might see $3 LTC within 24h.

[nrd525]

The Oct-Nov 2013 LTC bubble had three sharp rises, followed by stability (or in one case a slower increase), and then a fourth and last "to the moon" rise that was straight up. 
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcusd
(looking at the 1D candles - I just learned you can pan the chart to the left to go back, by clicking and dragging!)

The last LTC bubble is similar.  Three sharp rises with a period of stability (and in this case decreasing intervals between them), followed by a fourth extreme rise.

There are some big differences. The first bubble was faster, had about the same time interval between the three first rises, corresponded with a BTC bubble, and the LTC bubble was much stronger.

Is there a technical pattern for this?

[RoadTrain]

Are you aware of the risks coming from possible BTC rally? It will push up LTC against the dollar, possibly not by very much, but still. Isn't it safer to short LTC/BTC instead?

[nrd525]

It's true. But LTC/USD has higher volume on BFX. So I think there is a lower chance of spikes causing margin calls.

Also - my LTC/USD short is backed primarily by BTC.

I suppose I should buy some BTC to balance out my position, so I'm maintaining the percent of my fluid assets in BTC long (at around 50%).

On the other hand, USD swap rates just spiked on BFX to 0.105% / day - which is a great return.

[nrd525]

Analysis of the LTC bubble:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3d95bt/the_ltc_pump_dump_and_a_postmortem_for_both_bulls/

with graphics:
http://shitco.in/2015/07/14/the-ltc-pump-dump-and-a-post-mortem-for-both-bulls-and-bears/

[nrd525]

Not sure how the LTC ponzi relates to an increase in price.   As the ponzi operator just pays out from incoming funds, it doesn't really matter whether the currency goes up or down.  It seems like an increase in price is more dangerous as it might decrease your income as people might want to cash out, and at some point it'd be very hard for newcomers to join at the rate that you need to keep it going if they had most of their funds in fiat.

[nrd525]

Past 24 hours - $2.57 million in USD swaps closed at BFX.  Wow.  Biggest one day decline since Jan 14.

[RoadTrain]

Past 24 hours - $2.57 million in USD swaps closed at BFX.  Wow.  Biggest one day decline since Jan 14.

It's interesting whether these were LTC or BTC swaps. This may have something to do with what you posted earlier on LTC pump.