nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

LTC down 10-15% to $4.27.

I'm kind of sad, because I want it to bounce to $5, or $6 so I can increase my short position!

BFX USD swaps are now down $3.5 million in the last two days.

NMC and PPC are holding, in a similar position to LTC. They lost some of their gains, but are holding at the level before the last (and fourth) spike.

I think it might take another major sell-off or even several of them to get LTC back to $1.50-$2 (and NMC and PPC back to the their pre-pump prices).

Greece is voting on the austerity package. I expect it to pass overwhelmingly with support from most of the opposition, as well as a majority of Syriza (like the vote on Friday).  So the banks should re-open and that might cause BTC to fall a couple percent.  I don't expect the deal to last longer than 1-2 years, unless the European economy improves enough to boost Greece's tourism.

LTC swaps are in shorter supply on BFX. Only 14k of swaps available at below 0.2%/day (though almost all of them at lower rates 0.03%-0.1%), and 112k swaps are outstanding.  By contrast up to 220k of swaps were available during the bubble.  There is 86k swaps available at 0.7499%/day. Maybe a major LTC holder is planning on selling instead of lending.

[brg444]

So the banks should re-open and that might cause BTC to fall a couple percent.

Not quite.

There are numerous reports suggesting that even if Greece and the Eurozone were to strike a bailout deal (which btw is not guaranteed even after the package terms are approve by Greek congress) it could take at least a month before banks re-open.

[madjules007]

I just noticed the title of this thread. FYI, it's probably a really bad idea for you to label this thread "investment advice." In fact, it's usually prudent to add a disclaimer to such analysis that specifies that it is not investment advice. Otherwise, you leave yourself open to civil liabilities.

[nrd525]

Ok, good point. I'll change the subject. 

The SEC defines an investment advisor as someone who does it "for compensation".  So I definitely don't qualify.

https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/oia/oia_investman/rplaze-042012.pdf

I should be able to provide my opinions on economic matters without being libeled.

[brg444]

So the banks should re-open and that might cause BTC to fall a couple percent.

Not quite.

There are numerous reports suggesting that even if Greece and the Eurozone were to strike a bailout deal (which btw is not guaranteed even after the package terms are approve by Greek congress) it could take at least a month before banks re-open.

source:http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-bank-capital-controls-remain-two-more-months-2015-7?r=UK

[nrd525]

I really shouldn't have panic closed my LTC short at $5.85.  Will there be major bounce? It's looking very dead.  Maybe a bounce to $4.20 and then down again.

Greece - the Finance Ministry says banks will open on Friday. Of course they might be optimistic.
http://rt.com/business/273757-greece-banks-deal-vote/
(RT.com not always reliable - but I saw this story somewhere else as well.)

[nrd525]

More LTC shorting - target price $1.50 to $2.50.
$3.40: 100 LTC
$3.74: 100 LTC
$3.84: 100 LTC
$3.94: 100 LTC

Total position: 900 LTC at a base price of $4.465

[RoadTrain]

I expect a leg up towards $4-5 range along with BTC rise.

[nrd525]

Is there any information available on the big LTC ponzi?

This is their litecoin address which they're still using, even though it is public:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou

I'm guessing that the collapse of the ponzi could lead to a LTC sell off by the ponzi operator, and a large price fall.  But they could also just hold the LTC, in which case the investors may have a negative impact on the price as they realize that their LTC are gone.

So long as the ponzi continues, I'm not uncertain as to whether it would have a positive or negative impact on LTC price. I guess it depends on whether there are more people buying LTC to get in the ponzi, or the operator is cashing out.

[Morecoin Freeman]

I would stick to trading bitcoin.
The litecoin chart scares the hell out of me.
Excellent way to lose money.

[nrd525]

BTC-e BTC flash crashed to $160 (while the other markets stayed at $260-$275). This is the second super flash crash on BTCe and, unlikely BFX, they don't reverse them. 

(BFX flash crashed to $100, but the trades were reversed).

If this continues to happen (impossible to predict, though it should be less often as the market matures and the order book increases), you can make a decent return by placing low bids and waiting 1-3 years.

[inca]

BTC-e BTC flash crashed to $160 (while the other markets stayed at $260-$275). This is the second super flash crash on BTCe and, unlikely BFX, they don't reverse them. 

(BFX flash crashed to $100, but the trades were reversed).

If this continues to happen (impossible to predict, though it should be less often as the market matures and the order book increases), you can make a decent return by placing low bids and waiting 1-3 years.

Leaving money on an exchange long term hoping for a low bid to be hit in a flash crash? Sounds like a good way to end up with nothing.

[nrd525]

Some analysis of the alleged Chinese LTC ponzi address.
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou

It looks like the blockr.io uses EST (or realizes that I'm in EST and uses that).

Total deposits: 8.6 million LTC. This is a major operation.  Now obviously they are also paying out money, so they probably don't control 8.6 million LTC (unless they are using multiple addresses).  They probably started using multiple addresses which could explain why the account balance has fallen from 1.2 million to 400k.  

Incoming transactions are mostly in numbers with a base of 500.  So a lot of 500 LTC transactions and a smaller number of 1000, 1500, 2000, etc.
Incoming transactions dried up around July 10th.  There is one 500 LTC transaction on July 11, but that might be a mistake.  They probably switched to another address for the ponzi. But it is interesting that there is still 400k LTC left in this one.

Incoming transactions dry up between 12:00 and 17:00 (EST), during Chinese night (12 am to 5 am).

Outgoing transactions:
302k July 2, 15:14-15:23

222k July 3, between 16:08-16:19

254k on July 4,  15:51 and 16:36

255k on July 5,  19:54 and 20:04

213k LTC on July 6,  17:21 and 17:34.  This is right after LTC surged to $5.80.  Several hours later it fell as low as $4.90.  Were they cashing out?

190k LTC on July 7,  17:31 and 17:44.

214k LTC on July 8,  16:30 and 16:40.

230k LTC on July 9,  17:55 and 18:40.  An hour after LTC passed $8. An hour before a small dip to $7.40.   Ten hours before the crash to $5.  Cashing out?

670k LTC on July 10, 7:12 and 9:05.   This 2-4 hours after LTC crashed from near $9 to $5.  It is several hours before the second crash to $3.70.  Looks like they missed cashing out at the $8-$9 peak.

There is the occasional outgoing transaction that has a base of 500 LTC.  Are they cashing people out of the ponzi? If so, it seems like very few people.

Looks like daily outgoing payments or cash outs, until July 10 when they did a major transaction and may have started to use another address.

It looks like the outgoing transactions of 10k to 30k are primarily going to addresses where they are being held (and many of them have only one or several transactions of the same large size).  So there isn't any evidence that they are being sold.


This is a great chart of the alleged LTC ponzi address:
https://bitinfocharts.com/litecoin/address/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou

The first transaction was on April 14.   That is a possible approximate start date for the ponzi.  It really took off around May 20th.
 

[nrd525]

I started a reddit thread on the possible LTC ponzi. So far, nobody has any major new facts.

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/3dvboh/what_is_the_chinese_ltc_ponzi/

[nrd525]

What do these payments look like?
http://ltc.blockr.io/tx/info/1b7a4a0c2f2ea6a0006e5336e061a58a5748e50b1a06ea49f30198c58b2cf21e
(To me they look like ponzi payouts from a scheme where most people are giving 500 LTC and are receiving 31.5 to 51.75 LTC for the time period.  Or 6.3% to 10.35% for whatever the time period is)

if you follow the incoming transactions it comes from (a couple levels up)
http://ltc.blockr.io/tx/info/8593fddcd4891f8ffde2a760368cf759e25e91ba16c5087291f52fd752896ef0
and then from:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/LVW9rw6qQn1JrZVLAhneQzm8ZmhELpznmH

and then to (the big alleged LTC ponzi address):
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou


...

This person appears to have sent 1000 LTC to an address, and then started getting daily payments of 11.25 LTC (or 1.125% interest/day).  They added another 3000 LTC and their payments were increased to 51.75 LTC (or almost 1.3%/day).  Though it does stop on July 12th.
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/34gNmiMVenCXsY9Kr8KvfMGcaUbWpthyoe


This person invested 500 LTC, got 4.5 LTC back (0.9%) then invested another 1000 LTC and got 18 LTC/day (or 1.2%), then another 25000 and got 51.75 LTC/day back.
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/38vTA5bi6hvqhcZC4ktHRtvacZFcK3kHiy

This person invested 2500 LTC, got 31.5 LTC back (around 1.2%), then invested another 500 LTC and got 38.25/day, then another 500 LTC and got 45/day, and it stopped on July 15.
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/334rBwn6VFCYsMf8QTJ4PeaKc4nsv91iKP


Looking at these addresses there appears to be some kind of investment scheme going on.  I don't know of any LTC swap rates (lending it out to speculators) that would be that high.

It is weird that everything seems to have stopped around July 15th.  Note: July 15th-16th was the big LTC fall from $4.60 to $3.20.


...
It could also be some kind of mixer.

[nrd525]

More analysis of the LTC ponzi
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1115157.80

[nrd525]

It looks like the ponzi operator hasn't cashed out.  They probably have a very low cost basis (as they didn't have to pay for most of them).

If they do cash out, the LTC price could go below $1.

[klee]

Is there a known LTC mixer site?

[Chef Ramsay]

No one should count out LTC at this point. It's a buy easy.

[nrd525]

One of the goals of this thread is to use facts.  So if you express an opinion, you need to back it up with facts =)

Why is LTC a buy?

I think it is going down, because the ponzi owner(s) have up to 5 million LTC on hand and are going to at least partially cash out because they will want to diversify their assets.  The general pump from $1.40 to $9 was about 10 times larger than what it should have been based on BTC's increase from $220 to $275.  I think the pro-LTC arguments (faster confirms, BTC blocksize debate, and halving) are generally inconsequential in the medium to long run as BTC will resolve these issues and halving should be built into the price (and possibly over built into it - ala buy the rumor sell the news).  I think LTC lacks projects and uses.  And finally I think that altcoins are in a longterm bear market against BTC because BTC is a natural monopoly like Paypal, Ebay, and Amazon.

Now LTC could have a big bounce up to $5-$7.  But it would be speculation-driven, not based on value, and it wouldn't last.