nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

I used LTC in the past to move money.  Though I only held it for an hour or less as the transaction time is faster.  Though if too many people do it, the hot wallets will run out which happenned to me at least once.

More signs of the bubble - a relative stranger is donating ETH to me because I inspired him to get involved in April with a couple emails.  My first crypto donation.  Hmm, are other people interested?  I could setup an address =)

We're at 14k.   If 11k doesn't hold, we could be in for a bear market.  I still expect one last pump going into Dec 18.

Korea premium is only $300 over GDAX.

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[nrd525]

http://ir.cboe.com/press-releases/2017/12-04-2017

[komjhq]

I used LTC in the past to move money.  Though I only held it for an hour or less as the transaction time is faster.  Though if too many people do it, the hot wallets will run out which happenned to me at least once.

More signs of the bubble - a relative stranger is donating ETH to me because I inspired him to get involved in April with a couple emails.  My first crypto donation.  Hmm, are other people interested?  I could setup an address =)

We're at 14k.   If 11k doesn't hold, we could be in for a bear market.  I still expect one last pump going into Dec 18.

Korea premium is only $300 over GDAX.

there are a lot of forecasts for December. What worries me most is that some users have voiced the possibility or even the possibility of several Bitcoin forks by the end of the year. How this will affect the price, do not predict.

[nrd525]

I'm accepting donations =)

Bitcoin
1MgKRdbRUsL3rhmd2urNgMfTJdTaQAX3th

ETH
0xc79f53731e61c58019e4a1d3a1e031bf682d0bea

[nrd525]

So Crypto Kitties is a pyramid scheme that relies upon new investors, right?  A starting group of cats breeds more cats leading to exponential growth.  The only thing to do is to breed the cats, buy/sell, and look at them (or make Youtube videos ha!).

[nrd525]

Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low.  4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

[nrd525]

I talked to a Bitcoin tax attorney for 10 minutes today and they did not know whether you could use average cost method for Bitcoin.

Unfortunately as a relatively small client, it would probably cost me more money to hire tax attorneys to reseach this question than I would save.  So I want to find someone who has already looked into this.

Does anyone know?

[TheQuin]

Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low.  4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

The CBoE mainly trade in options, the futures exchange is relatively new and small. I trade with one of the largest retail brokers and FCMs and they haven't made the contract available to trade. The CME, on the other hand, is the largest futures exchange in the world and I expect all FCMs to make it available.

Edit: I just had a check around and Interactive Brokers are the only broker listed by CBoE as supporting it, so it is not really surprising that the volume is quite low.

[nrd525]

Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low.  4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

The CBoE mainly trade in options, the futures exchange is relatively new and small. I trade with one of the largest retail brokers and FCMs and they haven't made the contract available to trade. The CME, on the other hand, is the largest futures exchange in the world and I expect all FCMs to make it available.

Edit: I just had a check around and Interactive Brokers are the only broker listed by CBoE as supporting it, so it is not really surprising that the volume is quite low.

So do you think we'll see 10 times more volume?  Or even 100?

...

Recently we've been in a cycle of Bitcoin increasing on one day, and then alt-coins increasing on the other day.  Today is an alt-coin day with ETH up 25%, Bitcoin Cash up 10%, Litecoin up 65%, and many others that are up 10% or more.

[TheQuin]

So do you think we'll see 10 times more volume?  Or even 100?

It's very difficult to predict. I don't think initially it will be a big bang, it will probably start off quite light and build up over time. Looking around I cannot see many brokers announcements which makes me think they are taking a cautious approach and want to see how it trades for a while to make proper risk assessments. After all, if they set the day trade margin too low then it is the FCM that is on the hook to pay the exchange if the trader's account is negative.

Having said that I'm sure it will be higher than CBoE volumes. When you look at it bear in mind that the contract is 5x larger. That is a CBoE contract is for 1 BTC and a CME contract will be for 5 BTC so even if it trades at roughly the same volume of ~5,000 contracts a day that is actually 25,000 BTC.

[Samarkand]

...
So do you think we'll see 10 times more volume?  Or even 100?

...

I would be extremely surprised if we would see 100x volume at the Bitcoin futures of the CME.
Unfortunately, I think it will be another disappointment and it will not live up to the huge
expectations.

So far every launch of Bitcoin derivatives has seen rather low volumes (LedgerX, CBOE) and I expect this one
to not be different. Besides, I think the comparisons to the volume of the Bitcoin exchanges are flawed as
the Bitcoin exchanges with the biggest trading volume are known to allow/be involved in wash trading
(Bitfinex, Bithumb). Therefore I would be cautious with drawing comparisons between trading volume
of regulated Bitcoin futures and unregulated exchanges.

[nrd525]

You think people on Bitfinex are paying the trade fee to do wash trading?  It's adding up to a lot of revenue for Bitfinex.

US taxes.  I don't think Coindesk is necessarily a good reference.  I'm skeptical of the "like kind" exchange theory. It will only stand up if you are willing to defend it in court and risk getting audited (and then penalized) if you fail.  It's surprising we haven't seen an IRS ruling on it.
https://www.coindesk.com/uncle-sams-surprise-tax-reform-impact-crypto-investors/

I like seeing the proposal that everyone should use FIFO as that is what I plan to use. I guess it will be annoying if I buy back in - but right now FIFO is pretty good for long term holders.

[Samarkand]

You think people on Bitfinex are paying the trade fee to do wash trading?  It's adding up to a lot of revenue for Bitfinex.

...

I think Bitfinex are themselves the entity responsible for the wash trading alongside with people affiliated with the management.
Therefore I don´t think they pay any fees at all and can wash trade with impunity.
Otherwise you would obviously be right that trading fees discourage wash trading.

The owners have a huge incentive to boost trading volume artificially, not only due to the fact that
wash trading can be used to manipulate the price of any cryptocurrency, but also because it increases
the attractivity of the exchange for genuine outside investors.
Many people, who are looking for an exchange to trade are obviously going with the exchange with the
biggest liquidity and the biggest trading volume.

1. Artificially increase trading volume
2. Genuine money flows into your exchange, because your exchange is the leading Bitcoin exchange by volume
3. Profit
4. Use wash trading strategically to manipulate cryptocurrencies in your favor to increase profits even further
...

[TheQuin]

I think......

The owners have a huge incentive.....

As with nearly all conspiracy theories, all you have is a motive and no evidence. This is just another case of repeating unsubstantiated claims. If enough people keep repeating them then some people start to believe them.

I'm not going to get into an argument and derail nrd525's thread but that needed to be said.

[Samarkand]

I think......

The owners have a huge incentive.....

As with nearly all conspiracy theories, all you have is a motive and no evidence. This is just another case of repeating unsubstantiated claims. If enough people keep repeating them then some people start to believe them.

I'm not going to get into an argument and derail nrd525's thread but that needed to be said.

I also don´t want to derail nrd525´s thread  

However, please tell me what exactly my motive is? I have been using Bitfinex (mainly for lending USD) for nearly 3 years and only
recently stopped doing so, because of the developments surrounding Tether and BFX. Therefore I don´t really know why exactly I have a motive for posting bad things about Bitfinex.
I´m not like @Bitfinexed, who obviously has a personal vendetta against BFX. In fact I would be happy if all my claims were proven to be false,
because of the fatal impact on the whole Bitcoin ecosystem if Bitfinex is going to fail / be shut down by US law enforcement.

Take a look at the biggest Bitcoin exchanges by volume.
The top 2 exchanges are Bitfinex and Bithumb (this has been the situation for quite a while).

One of these got hacked in a very dubious way and has a history of not delivering on
audits. Instead of entering a slow decline - the development that should occur after suffering a serious hack
and never delivering the promised analysis of the hack - it continues to be the biggest exchange by
volume. The owners have a history of fraudulent behavior and are also behind Tether. Active margin funding
continues to hit unprecedented levels after every Tether issuance.

The other one is giving out / allowing people to buy zero-fee vouchers, which enables rampant wash trading.
This is not only used for BTC, but also allows them to easily create pumps for BCH or even shitcoins like XRP.

Bitfinex and Bithumb would be nowhere near the top of the trading volume rankings if they wouldn´t engage in
this kind of behavior.

Don´t you think it is odd that the CBOE future as well as the CME future are based on exchanges like Gemini, Bitstamp
or Itbit? This is really odd and I have no idea why they don´t use Bitfinex and Bithumb, because these are the two
top exchanges by volume. Oh, wait, I have an idea...

We can continue this discussion in the other BFX-related threads instead of continuing to derail nrd525´s Market Tracker.

[TheQuin]

However, please tell me what exactly my motive is?

Sorry, I didn't make that clear what I meant. I wasn't accusing you of having a motive but your argument for Bitfinex wash trading is purely outlining what their motives for doing so could be. This is very common in conspiracy theories, make a case as to why someone would benefit from a fraud and imply that must mean they are doing it.

[Samarkand]

However, please tell me what exactly my motive is?

Sorry, I didn't make that clear what I meant. I wasn't accusing you of having a motive but your argument for Bitfinex wash trading is purely outlining what their motives for doing so could be. This is very common in conspiracy theories, make a case as to why someone would benefit from a fraud and imply that must mean they are doing it.

Ok, now your post makes more sense.

Basically my argument boils down to the trading volume rankings. If all available exchanges were operating perfectly innocuous the trading volume ranking would
be lead by GDax/Coinbase (by far the biggest user base, caters to the biggest markets in the world except China) and Bitstamp (one of the oldest operators with a nearly flawless track record (nearly, because they
also suffered a hack back in the day)).

The fact that Bitfinex and Bithumb are at the top can´t be easily explained. Keep in mind that one of them even lost banking for 7 months and just recently
added a few payment gateways and the other one caters mainly (or even exclusively) to the Korean market.

[watchbay30]

So Crypto Kitties is a pyramid scheme that relies upon new investors, right?  A starting group of cats breeds more cats leading to exponential growth.  The only thing to do is to breed the cats, buy/sell, and look at them (or make Youtube videos ha!).

The litecoin dump that recently happened was a little surprising. With all the scrypt miners that recently came out (as well as kncs litecoin miner coming in a few months) I thought scrypts might get more support (and higher price)

[nrd525]

More alt-coin pumps today.  Ripple 75%, Bitcoin Cash 17%, NEM 17%, Cardano (never even bothered to research this) 48%.    LTC and IOTA small pull backs -11%.

Bitcoin dominance down to 54% (previously it was 62%+)

[nrd525]

Poll: What is your estimate for the btc price range, 90% confidence interval, on Jan 1, 2019?  

(Also if anyone wants to use options or some betting sites to calculate their estimated range - that would be awesome).