nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Is there a good way to view historical reddit?  I'd like to look at BitcoinMarkets at the last bubble peak and the bottom of the last bear market.  Archive.org doesn't have it and I haven't been able to figure out the reddit url system.

[nrd525]

Not much detail but the recent terrorist attack was by a bitconnect investor who made money on it!
https://www.ccn.com/christchurch-terrorist-invested-and-profited-from-crypto-scam-bitconnect

[Samarkand]

Not much detail but the recent terrorist attack was by a bitconnect investor who made money on it!
https://www.ccn.com/christchurch-terrorist-invested-and-profited-from-crypto-scam-bitconnect

I highly doubt that this is true. The manifesto of the Christchurch terrorist contains several memes and inside jokes
and many media outlets simply took everything in it at face value.

From the same article that you linked:

After revealing that video game Fortnite taught him how to be a killer, the gunman
disclosed that he has dabbled in cryptocurrency, writing:...

The part that Fortnite taught him how to be a killer was 100 % not serious and yet CCN
ran with it anyway.

Another media outlet posted about his 300+ confirmed kills as a sniper when it was a known
copypasta of a meme from 4chan that has been around for several years. This dude never
was a sniper and never even was in Afghanistan.

I strongly assume that the part about Bitconnect was a joke as well.
Most media outlets that write about this apparently have a hard time distinguishing
the honest parts of the manifesto from the obvious trolls/memes and jokes.

[nrd525]

Interesting!

...

I'm wondering if the relationship between the Google Search Trend for "bitcoin" and the bitcoin price is quadratic.  Aka the price seems to be correlated to the square of the search trend (though very imperfectly). 

[nrd525]

April 2.  22% gain in 24 hours (4100 to 5080 on Bitstamp), mostly happened in 1 hour and then 40% pullback.  Currently 4790.

Biggest bullish daily candle in percent terms since Feb 5, 2018.  No news.  Just a breakout of an ascending triangle (am I really writing TA?) and new highs.

Though I'm still bearish and expecting a full retracement. Still need 1) global recession and 2) alt-coins collapse further.  If we managed to pull off a bull market before the next recession I'd be very happy to cash out (and to skip losing tons of money as we crash to 1k-2k), though not so happy that I'm under-invested.

[nrd525]

Bitcoin 5300 (it retraced the retrace - what is that called?). Bitcoin Cash doubled in the past 2 days LOL. BTC dominance down to 50.3%.  No news of course.

Bitfinex premium (1-2% over bitstamp) is gone - Bitstamp currently ahead by $10.

[nrd525]

Hmm, it looks like my marginal income tax rate is around 90% for the amount I earned over 48k in 2018. I didn't realize that it moves all of my long term capital gains from 0% to 15% (AND I have to pay the obamacare penalty).   So essentially I owe $10.5k taxes on 12k of income (over 48k) - or about 11k with state/local.

Is this new? Or has there always been an infinite marginal tax rate on capital gains for the $1 once you get out of the 48k bracket?

Very upset.


Or is this still true?
https://quarryhilladvisors.com/blog/can-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

[nrd525]

Looks like capital gains works like income tax. You pay the higher rate only on the marginal amount in the higher bracket.

I'm wondering if this is going to turn into a nice v or u bottom (with a rebound to 6200).  If it does, the chart is going to look a lot different than it did in the last bear market (and the bear market won't necessarily be over).

[figmentofmyass]

I'm wondering if this is going to turn into a nice v or u bottom (with a rebound to 6200).  If it does, the chart is going to look a lot different than it did in the last bear market (and the bear market won't necessarily be over).

i was thinking about a w bottom. a double bottom essentially, although i've seen them work well with deep higher lows. it's too late for a proper v bottom, which rise quickly off the bottom. we ranged for 3 months instead.

to me, it doesn't look so unlike 2015. if we view this rally as a parallel to the june/july 2015 move, then there are two key differences. 1. we never saw a capitulation/v bottom and 2. this move is more compressed in terms of time. i guess we shouldn't expect things to play out exactly the same so i'm trying to keep an open mind about whether the bottom is in yet.

[nrd525]

I'm thinking this is going to be a great fake out.  There might need to be one more vicious move to the downside than 80% of people are expecting.  With similar reasoning, the bear market might have to be more brutal each time as more people gain the experience of waiting for the next bull market.  Though if this is in percentage terms it goes against the slow compression we're seeing (each bear/bull market is smaller than the prior one). However it might seem more brutal (or positive in the case of bull markets) as the absolute amount of money is larger, there are more people invested, and there is greater media attention.

So now that I think about it, I really like the idea that each future bear market is likely to more bearish and each future bull market more bullish due to the absolute numbers.  For instance, I'm personally planning on investing a lot more money in this upcoming bear market (especially if we go to 1k) than in 2013 and have already invested slightly more.

Note while search trends for "Bitcoin" on Google "worldwide" on the "2004 to present" time frame looks like it might trend up from 8 last month and a general low of 8-9 to a bit higher in April -- don't believe the "16" projection for April which has already been downsized from "17" yesterday. It seems more likely to come in around 10, so long as BTC price doesn't move that much.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin

Also for search trends, is Nigeria really that much into bitcoin?  They are #1 region.  And some of the other countries don't make that much sense.  Unless there is some tv/movie/song about bitcoin that is big in Nigeria.

[nrd525]

If we get another bull market, it might be worthwhile to be prepared to lend USD (and possibly EUR) at Bitfinex or elsewhere if this is possible.  So setting up an offshore corporation if applicable.  Is there any way to do this? I think Bitfinex doesn't even allow offshore corporations if they are controlled by US residents.  Poloniex banned margin trading/lending for US customers (but does it apply to offshore corporations?)

https://www.bitfinex.com/stats

Might be a good way to make 10%-20% APR while having less risk than direct investment in bitcoin. Though the risk will be correlated (exchange hack or a flash crash could be bad).

[nrd525]

Another interesting way to make money, especially in the US, is that there are a lot of credit card offers that will you a bonus of $150-$200 if you spend $500 or up to $2000 in a three month period (while also giving you 2% cash back).

I'm working my way through my second cash back bonus so far.

[nrd525]

Is Litecoin just being pumped? Or is there real significant news? The rise from $22 to $98 (and only a small selloff to $80 now) is very exagerated.

By contrast, ETH is up only 120% (lol).

[nrd525]

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

[nrd525]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrGx0lhdNBY
Probability that Bitcoin has bottomed at $3100.  5 hour massive video. I haven't watched it all.

My probability: 25%.  Mostly based on psychology (needing more pain to wreck everyone who thinks we will have another bull market), altcoins/ICOs being too high, and we don't know what will happen when a recession hits (altcoins/ICOs probably take a huge hit, bitcoin takes a big hit).

I'm thinking we'll bottom at around $1900-$2500.  Could goes as low as $1000.

Of course am I actually selling my bitcoins to buy them back lower? Heck no.  Would I do this if I had a 0% capital gains tax rate?  Maybe for 1/5th of my stack.  Do I have bids placed down to 1k?  Of course - dating back to November or December 2018

[figmentofmyass]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrGx0lhdNBY
Probability that Bitcoin has bottomed at $3100.  5 hour massive video. I haven't watched it all.

My probability: 25%.  Mostly based on psychology (needing more pain to wreck everyone who thinks we will have another bull market), altcoins/ICOs being too high, and we don't know what will happen when a recession hits (altcoins/ICOs probably take a huge hit, bitcoin takes a big hit).

sadly, it does indeed feel like people are too bullish. this isn't what it felt like at all when we broke out in late 2015. at that point, everyone was rekt and no one took the bulls seriously. they were laughed at.

i'm growing weary of this rationale that altcoins are "still too high". we've seen coins drop 95-99% from their ATH. also, that sort of thinking really damaged me in 2015 when the bull market began when i was simply too bearish for my own good. markets will always challenge our biases and there is never any such thing as "too high" or "too low" IMO.

I'm thinking we'll bottom at around $1900-$2500.  Could goes as low as $1000.

Of course am I actually selling my bitcoins to buy them back lower? Heck no.  Would I do this if I had a 0% capital gains tax rate?  Maybe for 1/5th of my stack.  Do I have bids placed down to 1k?  Of course - dating back to November or December 2018

to each his own. i happily swing trade getting taxed at my normal income rate cuz all my other income has self employment tax on top. not so with my trading income.

[nrd525]

There are some obvious alt-coin calls - like Bitcoin SV is not worth $1 billion market cap.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall another 90-95%.

Big Tether news!  Bitfinex lost $850 million or got scammed by Crypto Capital for that amount and covered it with Tethers!  Is there a current market valuation of the Bitfinex corporation?  IE is any of their stock trading?

It's a big house of cards when they rely upon selling stock to cover losses/hacks.  What are they going to do once they run out of stock?  Or if the stock price plunges to zero as we go deeper into bear market territory (or people move to more reliable exchanges).

Imagine if Bitcoin doubles in price each year, and you are only losing 20% of your funds to hackers each year - so you are happy!  What a crazy thing.

[nrd525]

One of the ways that Tether pumps crypto is by falsely increasing the coin market cap. It shouldn't be included.   I'm also wondering whether Binance coin should be.  Is there really that big of a difference between them issuing regular securities (not counted in the market cap) vs issuing a token (counted)?

[nrd525]

Magical Internet Money

They are subsidizing the lending rate (lenders are paid more than borrowers are paying)

They aren't paying out ponzi rates (notably earning 2.5% on ETH is not worth it, but 13% on DAI is good to great - if there is very little risk).

How secure is your money if ETH or DAI plummet?  Are stablecoins like DAI actually stable or prone to any kind of problem.  What happens if there is a bug in the smart contract?

https://www.dharma.io

[nrd525]

Thinking about selling 1-3 btc to try and buy back at 2k-4k.