nrd525 Market Tracker

[LeGaulois]

@exstasie

There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.

If you compare with the last 6 months before the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin jumped x2.3 and x1.7
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/

@nrd525

A lot of speculators will have to learn about how people reduce risk by moving money into secure investments like US treasuries or cash. This will come as a surprise to the libertarians who believe that bitcoin is an alternative to governments and banks.

Sadly people turned Bitcoin from a payment mean to a speculative asset. 90% of the activity is concerning trading and not real uses.

[exstasie]

@exstasie

There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.

That's what I'm getting at. I'm noticing the same thing. Everybody has gotten so bearish they aren't buying into halving hype anymore.

This is a good thing. It's exactly what happened in early 2016. Around April or May that year, we were all saying things like "the halving is already priced in!" We were shell shocked from the 2014-2015 bear market and assumed the late 2015 rally must have been a bull trap.

Does that narrative sound familiar? Because I'm seeing it everywhere I look now.

If you compare with the last 6 months before the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin jumped x2.3 and x1.7
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/

Darkest before dawn.

Let's revisit this post in a few months.

[JL0]

@exstasie

There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.

That's what I'm getting at. I'm noticing the same thing. Everybody has gotten so bearish they aren't buying into halving hype anymore.

This is a good thing. It's exactly what happened in early 2016. Around April or May that year, we were all saying things like "the halving is already priced in!" We were shell shocked from the 2014-2015 bear market and assumed the late 2015 rally must have been a bull trap.

Does that narrative sound familiar? Because I'm seeing it everywhere I look now.

If you compare with the last 6 months before the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin jumped x2.3 and x1.7
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/

Darkest before dawn.

Let's revisit this post in a few months.

Thank you. I'm a litte bit bearish and scared because of the Plustoken Scam. They've a lot of Bitcoins and could dump the Price even lower than yet. What do you think about it ?

[exstasie]

Darkest before dawn.

Let's revisit this post in a few months.

Thank you. I'm a litte bit bearish and scared because of the Plustoken Scam. They've a lot of Bitcoins and could dump the Price even lower than yet. What do you think about it ?

Haven't they supposedly dumped more than half their BTC already? That's one thing to take into account. They don't have an endless supply, and the lower the price is, the less capital it takes to absorb their distribution.

I also believe demand from accumulators is much stronger in this sub-$8K range than in the $10K+ range from the summer. So in my opinion, the remaining 20K BTC in their possession won't affect the price as much as earlier in the year.

Demand is what really matters. In a strong BTC bull market like late 2016 or 2017, the Plus Token scam would be a drop in the bucket. We just aren't there yet.

[nrd525]

Nice report on how this expansion cycle compares to previous ones.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/chart-book-tracking-the-post-great-recession-economy

[nrd525]

I think a common mistake among analysts who try to use numbers and reason to predict the direction of bitcoin price is the reliance upon the last two or three cycles. This is a tiny sample size and bitcoin could do something completely different. We may have already seen that with the bull market to 13.8k which failed to set a higher high.  There are so many indicators that worked near perfectly on the past two or three cycles, but could easily be blown out of the water if something different happenned - let alone if we never had another bull cycle (or our next bull cycles were more like 50%-100% instead of 50x-100x).

It'd be better to draw more insight from how bubbles work.  And maybe how some breakthroughs happen and others fail.

That said, our last three bear markets bottomed in December, January, and December.  So that's an interesting pattern! 

In the US, people who bought at above 7k should be selling to harvest the tax loss (or have done so within the past two months).  Though as they can buy back in within minutes, this shouldn't adversely affect the price.

[exstasie]

That said, our last three bear markets bottomed in December, January, and December.  So that's an interesting pattern!

I hadn't really considered that. I don't want to put too much stock into it due to the lack of data, but interesting indeed!

Maybe it has to do with the January Effect:

The January Effect is a perceived seasonal increase in stock prices during the month of January. Analysts generally attribute this rally to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, engaging in tax-loss harvesting to offset realized capital gains, prompt a sell-off. Another possible explanation is that investors use year-end cash bonuses to purchase investments the following month.

[nrd525]

Got banned from Hexcoin reddit. My first reddit ban!  I think I made 2-3 comments, one of which was how Hexcoin was ahead of Buttcoin on search trends - but at least Buttcoin has a use case. LOL.  They must be very nervous if they are banning people like me.  I reported the reddit as a scam before I got banned.  Unfortunately I doubt that reddit admins will do anything.

[nrd525]

You know you look at too many bitcoin charts when you look at the SP 500 chart and think that it isn't close to being an exponential blow off top =)  At 3250 (another ATH) today, it still needs to hit 4000 in the next several months!

Hmm, up 60% in the past four years of sluggish economic growth.  Fueled by easy money, lack of competition from bonds, and corporate stock buy backs.

[nrd525]

Sold 1 btc at 7170.  I've now sold half my position.  Not planning on selling any more.  Hoping to buy back at around 5k.

[nrd525]

Sold another 0.5 btc around 8600.   That Bitcoin SV pump (up to 170% in 24 hours, and generally moving from $100 to $450 since the start of the year) is the best alt coin pump (notably in terms of a major altcoin and gain in market cap) we've seen since the initial Bitcoin Cash pump. Very impressive.  It's still unwinding.  I wonder why people aren't suing Craig Wright?  I'd love to make a bet against whether he is Satoshi or controls private keys that have more than 500,000 btc.

SP500 continues to hit new highs.  I was interested to learn that the top five stocks make up a larger proportion of the SP500 market cap than historical averages.  So a lot depends on several companies that could fail...

And as always, if you are making tons of money counter-trading me, my PMs are open for donations =)

[exstasie]

Sold another 0.5 btc around 8600.   That Bitcoin SV pump (up to 170% in 24 hours, and generally moving from $100 to $450 since the start of the year) is the best alt coin pump (notably in terms of a major altcoin and gain in market cap) we've seen since the initial Bitcoin Cash pump. Very impressive.  It's still unwinding.  I wonder why people aren't suing Craig Wright?  I'd love to make a bet against whether he is Satoshi or controls private keys that have more than 500,000 btc.

This is Craig Wright's exit pump. It better be impressive!

SP500 continues to hit new highs.  I was interested to learn that the top five stocks make up a larger proportion of the SP500 market cap than historical averages.  So a lot depends on several companies that could fail...

LOL, what companies could fail? Apple? Microsoft? The top constituents of the S&P500 look rock solid to me.

And as always, if you are making tons of money counter-trading me, my PMs are open for donations =)

Still planning to buy back at $5K?

[DeathAngel]

Sold 1 btc at 7170.  I've now sold half my position.  Not planning on selling any more.  Hoping to buy back at around 5k.

This didn’t age well, did it. Selling at the start of a bull cycle is really dumb unless you desperately need the money at the time.

[nrd525]

It looks bad now, but I'm playing long term.  I think this bullish cycle is too early, lack of new investors, and the next recession is going to be a shock to the crypto markets and
not based on significant interest.  I trade long term cycles.  And I bought half of them around 3.7k so...

Of course we can always have "one last pump" before the economic cycle peaks.  Stock market is frothy.

[JL0]

It looks bad now, but I'm playing long term.  I think this bullish cycle is too early, lack of new investors, and the next recession is going to be a shock to the crypto markets and
not based on significant interest.  I trade long term cycles.  And I bought half of them around 3.7k so...

Of course we can always have "one last pump" before the economic cycle peaks.  Stock market is frothy.

Why do you think it looks bad?

[nrd525]

The fundamentals have barely changed.  We solved the China trade war (but now have tensions with Iran and who knows what Trump will do if he's behind in the polls).  The stock market is even more of a bubble.  The major use case for bitcoin continues to be speculation. We have some new/easier/safer ways to speculate using it, but it isn't being used to take on credit cards, remittances, or in countries with hyperinflation (Venezuela).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=671764.msg52932246#msg52932246

[nrd525]

Reviewing some "fundamentals".  Mostly the same as Oct 2019

Bullish Factors
-Global economy at peak of bull cycle. SP500 even higher than in Oct 2019. SP500 up 30.4% in 2019.
-Global (long term and also short term) interest rates at historical (50-60 year) lows
-Lightning Network will allow low transaction fees
-Transaction fees are around $0.30-$1.00 (room to grow)
-Bitcoin market share at 66%  (67% in Oct 2019)
-Bitcoin ecosystem is healthy - no talks of additional forks, no new controversial splits in the community
-Republicans are unlikely to overly-regulate crypto currency and are likely to hold a majority at least in the Senate post 2020
-Use case for speculation is solid.  Bitcoin is digital gold for gamblers.
-More ways to speculate on bitcoin (CME, CBOE, Bakkt, additional futures)
-More ways to lend out bitcoin (also stable USD coins and altcoins) with Celsius Network, Blockfi, etc
-May 2020 Halvening
-ETF hasn't happenned yet, but seems likely in the next 1-5 years
-Volatility helps Bitcoin fulfill its "Digital Gold for Gamblers" function
-US IRS allows specific lots for determining capital gains
-Bitcoin has a strong network effect.


Bearish Factors
-Global recession is coming (ex. US unemployment rate of 3.6% hasn't been sustained since 1960 or before without a recession)
-Bitcoin is a high risk asset. In a recession, people will sell high risk assets and deleverage risk by buying US Treasuries and US dollars.
-Low rates fuel bubbles (property, crypto, stock, art, etc).  But bubbles will burst.
-Lightning's volume is insignificant
-Google Search Trends are lagging price (and lower than in the 2017 bull market)
-IRS increased interested in collecting capital gains. 2019 tax forms ask everyone to state whether they own cryptocurrency.
-We might have exited the bear market prematurely (inadequate damage to ICOs, altcoins, self-fulfilling prophecy of another bull market is too good to be true)
-No major use cases for bitcoin other than speculation (transactions, remittances, the nonsense about being your own bank -- all not that useful)
-Centralized stablecoins (or even just USD payment systems) are better suited for beating credit cards
-Lawsuits against Tether make strong arguments
-Blockchain is falsely equated to the internet as a revolution in something - not true!
-Lack of premiums in non-US exchanges (ex. in the past we had China premiums in 2013 and Korea in 2017)
-There are an infinte number of possible crypto-currencies and the network effect can be overcome. Bitcoin is replaceable.
-Global inflation rate is at historical (50+ year?) lows. Bitcoin use in countries like Venezuela with hyperinflation is negligible. US dollars are more useful.
-Long downward channel from 13.8k to 6.5k.
-Most of the rise from 3k to 13.8k might have been fueled by the $2 billion PlusToken ponzi (eg. not fundamental demand) and its collapse is likely to leave us slightly higher than the 3k start, but maybe only 50% more (my experience of the 2015 LTC ponzi based pump).
-Useless altcoins (notably XRP, Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin Cash) are over-priced. I don't think people will move money from them to Bitcoin. I think the loss of wealth will have a negative impact on Bitcoin price.

Indeterminate Factors (risk?)
-Mt Gox bankruptcy returns some of the coins.  Wow this is taking forever!
-Satoshi identity(ies) is not known. Potentially owns 1 million btc.
-Unresolved situation for small transactions where you are responsible for capital gains if they buy coffee
-Unregulated stable coins like Tether (could be scams, regulatory crackdown -- ex. research papers on correlation between printing new Tethers and price increase in bitcoin)
-Facebook Libra coin (could take a long time, if it happens at all)
-https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/  (doesn't seem so useful longterm, needs more data)
-GBTC premium - https://crypto.neotechdevs.com/GBTC.jsp?chart=year#charts
-Hacks, scams, ponzis

See everyone at 5k in 2020, 3k or less if we get a global recession in the next two years.

[nrd525]

Coindesk quarterly report!
https://www.coindesk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CoindeskResearchQuarterlyReviewQ42019.pdf

[nrd525]

As we break 10k (10.1k), Willy Woo is very bullish.  He does some great work with indicators but also has a massive long term bullish bias
https://twitter.com/woonomic

"This breakout is the real deal. Fundamental investment activity is backing this $10k breakout."

I suppose it is possible that a small number of large investors are behind this move, possibly people who've researched/followed bitcoins for a while and were waiting for improvements in custody, and that is why the search trends are pathetic.  US stock market is also setting new highs.

Are there any new major crypto/bitcoin ponzis?

[exstasie]

As we break 10k (10.1k), Willy Woo is very bullish.  He does some great work with indicators but also has a massive long term bullish bias
https://twitter.com/woonomic

"This breakout is the real deal. Fundamental investment activity is backing this $10k breakout."

I wish I could decipher what this chart means. The indicators are proprietary so we have to take his word for it that it's "mega bullish":



I'm not sure about on chain fundamentals, but the technicals are indeed mega bullish. The 20-week MA and 200-day MA are now in the rear view mirror. The market structure is now suggesting a very bullish nested count. I could see the 2019 highs being broken by late March/early April before a dump near the halving.

I suppose it is possible that a small number of large investors are behind this move, possibly people who've researched/followed bitcoins for a while and were waiting for improvements in custody, and that is why the search trends are pathetic.  US stock market is also setting new highs.

Are there any new major crypto/bitcoin ponzis?

The stock market bucking these corona virus worries bodes well for BTC.

Still waiting for $5K?