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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3297822 times)
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Hueristic
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February 06, 2019, 02:50:13 AM
 #40321

Chainalysis: "@monero is our top priority" - https://threader.app/thread/1091010633657659395
Bullish?

Don't know anymore, its dangerous to be right when the world is wrong.

“Obviously, we listed Zcash, We didn’t attempt to list Monero and we felt that Zcash was the privacy coin that we could get our regulators comfortable with.”

get this right, they did not even dared to attempt list Monero, because it could displease the regulators, if you don't think we are living in 1984 meets Brave New World, I don't know what to say.

but the bittersweet part is, Monero will still pump hard in a bullmarket just because everything else pumps and Monero is in a good number of exchanges already. The last big uncorrelated pump was when Alphabay added Monero, and that alone made it the most profitable coin of the year, I don't think we'll see that happening again.

I also don't think they will try to go after Monero simply because its too late at this point, as it was with Bitcoin in 2011, at end of the day its just another open-source project. And they already have a ''privacy'' coin where they want, the corporation behind Zcash will bend to the will of the USG. Green said so.

Zcash will be the trojan horse that eventually gets Monero onto the big exchanges. A privacy-lite coin is a stepping stone toward getting the regulators comfortable with real privacy coins.

In a few years when Grin gets it's legs under it it will be the red headed stepchild (in place of monero) and not allowed on regulated exchanges and all the fat cats will have their bags of monero's and then it will be a private store of value they will have accumulated enough of to allow it on exchanges.

Grin and MW won't make it, the world had enough of Core supremacists and their ignominious economic policies, the future belongs to ZK technologies which Monero will fully migrate to when they are ready aka no trusted-setups.

ZKStarks?

I'm guess the plan with bitcoin is to keep block size unchanged and allow fees to go through the roof, to subsidize miners. Meanwhile, users will have cheap and fast transactions on lightning network. Win/Win?

I'm sure someone has done some projections on how viable that economic model is. It would be interesting to see.

CW has a spreadsheet I think. Tongue
Ducks

I'm guess the plan with bitcoin is to keep block size unchanged and allow fees to go through the roof, to subsidize miners. Meanwhile, users will have cheap and fast transactions on lightning network. Win/Win?

I'm sure someone has done some projections on how viable that economic model is. It would be interesting to see.

I have seen many arguments here on BCT as why this fee model does not work and none as why it will work. By the way lightning network is not a solution. Just read the Lightning Network paper https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf where they talk about 100 MB + blocks to make LN work. In any case I hate to say I told you so, but I sold all my Bitcoin for Monero over this issue with the bulk of the sales completed well over 3 years ago.

Edit: The reason I found out about Monero in the first place is because I was researching this issue in Bitcoin here on BCT in 2014.

I was reading an old thread you were in where Satoshi had commented that the code for bigger blocks would be easy and he gave a simple If then statement to show how easy.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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February 06, 2019, 02:54:58 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #40322



I'm guess the plan with bitcoin is to keep block size unchanged and allow fees to go through the roof, to subsidize miners. Meanwhile, users will have cheap and fast transactions on lightning network. Win/Win?

I'm sure someone has done some projections on how viable that economic model is. It would be interesting to see.

CW has a spreadsheet I think. Tongue
Ducks

Gosh, it's true BSV is fairly centralized, but I wouldn't call it a "spreadsheet". ;/
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February 06, 2019, 02:57:35 AM
 #40323



I'm guess the plan with bitcoin is to keep block size unchanged and allow fees to go through the roof, to subsidize miners. Meanwhile, users will have cheap and fast transactions on lightning network. Win/Win?

I'm sure someone has done some projections on how viable that economic model is. It would be interesting to see.

CW has a spreadsheet I think. Tongue
Ducks

Gosh, it's true BSV is fairly centralized, but I wouldn't call it a "spreadsheet". ;/

ROTFL! Smiley

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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February 06, 2019, 02:59:55 AM
 #40324

Craig Wright is a spreadsheet?
Works for me!
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February 06, 2019, 04:56:56 AM
 #40325



I'm guess the plan with bitcoin is to keep block size unchanged and allow fees to go through the roof, to subsidize miners. Meanwhile, users will have cheap and fast transactions on lightning network. Win/Win?

I'm sure someone has done some projections on how viable that economic model is. It would be interesting to see.

I have seen many arguments here on BCT as why this fee model does not work and none as why it will work. By the way lightning network is not a solution. Just read the Lightning Network paper https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf where they talk about 100 MB + blocks to make LN work. In any case I hate to say I told you so, but I sold all my Bitcoin for Monero over this issue with the bulk of the sales completed well over 3 years ago.

Edit: The reason I found out about Monero in the first place is because I was researching this issue in Bitcoin here on BCT in 2014.

I was reading an old thread you were in where Satoshi had commented that the code for bigger blocks would be easy and he gave a simple If then statement to show how easy.

This is the thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.0;all  It is of course the thread that started the blocksize debate in Bitcoin

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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February 06, 2019, 10:13:35 AM
 #40326

spreadshiet

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February 06, 2019, 11:59:07 AM
 #40327

Majority of crypto traders, enthusiasts, HODLers don't really expected how the cryptoworld has collapsed in relation to Bitcoin's market cap and price movement. I myself didn't even expect that Bitcoin will reach an all time low at 3,000$ plus dragging almost all of the cryptos down too. Monero (XMR) is not exempted on that trip as it also fluctuate so bad. But I do believe there's a better time for cryptoworld to come so what's more important for me now is HODLing still with my digital assets in tact.

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February 06, 2019, 12:01:32 PM
 #40328

Been sideways so long I had to change scales, scrolling out on the hourlies you cant see anything but a narrow range.

For quite a while, I don't agree its "bombing like all altcoins!" as spouted in other forum regions.

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February 06, 2019, 01:29:08 PM
 #40329

^  Nope, its not.  It's actually the best time to start watching it very closely again imho.  Momentum usually starts slowly, without any 'news' or any crap that everybody usually waits for before going in.

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cAPSLOCK
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February 06, 2019, 06:03:03 PM
 #40330

Just want to point out we have seen ANOTHER one of those:

BTC dump
XMR action
BSV pump

trios again.

The XMR part is kind of subtle this time, as what I am seeing is a broad alt selloff while XMR is flat to positive.  Aside from Binance coin (and faketoshis spreadsheetcoin) XMR is the only coin holding up.

I't probably some sort of bias on my part, but I often feel like XMR bucks the trends of other alts.

BTW, what the heck is going on with BTC.  Some interesting stuff...  lots of splashing around.
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February 06, 2019, 06:37:03 PM
 #40331

Quote from: ArticMine
In any case I hate to say I told you so, but I sold all my Bitcoin for Monero over this issue with the bulk of the sales completed well over 3 years ago.


I still have some as a hedge, though I was seriously considering dumping them but couldn't pull the trigger back then. I remember when saddam did a similar thing too. So what are your thoughts, will bitcoin get taken over by another coin (monero, bcash?, etc), or the thinking is monero will out preform bitcoin from here on out?
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February 06, 2019, 08:28:42 PM
Merited by suchmoon (4), Hueristic (1), Bitcoinaire (1)
 #40332

...
I still have some as a hedge, though I was seriously considering dumping them but couldn't pull the trigger back then. I remember when saddam did a similar thing too. So what are your thoughts, will bitcoin get taken over by another coin (monero, bcash?, etc), or the thinking is monero will out preform bitcoin from here on out?

I consider Monero to pose a very serious long term threat to Bitcoin's dominance. This is because of the combination of the adaptive block weight with fungibility. Unlike Ethereum, which nearly dethroned BItcoin in 2017 - 2018 https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage, Monero does what Bitcoin was originally designed to do; namely be a cash like digital transactional currency. All it takes is a move in XMR / BTC such as what occurred in 2016 and Bitcoin's dominance is under threat, since the market will be comparing Monero directly with Bitcoin on a technical level. As for Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV these coins cannot compete with Monero on long term scaling let alone on fungibility.

Edit: I would watch out if Monero overtakes either Bitcoin Cash and / or Bitcoin SV in market cap. That could be very interesting. Furthermore there is no need for Monero to break the high of 0.03558 BTC in order to do that.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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February 06, 2019, 08:57:30 PM
 #40333

I have been thinking to, at some point, grab some SV.

Not for any fundamental reasons, more as a hedge against CSW screwing everything up for everyone.   :/  
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February 06, 2019, 09:57:35 PM
 #40334

I have been thinking to, at some point, grab some SV.

Not for any fundamental reasons, more as a hedge against CSW screwing everything up for everyone.   :/  

In the case David Klieman was SN and Craig talked a humongous wallet.dat file out of DK's wife?  And he will dump BTC into the sewer and then buy up so much BSV it goes to 10k?
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February 07, 2019, 08:50:55 AM
 #40335

He so smug he has some secret plan like patenting bitcoin or some crap.

Anyway Im a long time all in Monero

(except for a bit of BTC from my bro MicG)

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February 07, 2019, 10:47:07 AM
 #40336

I heard a rumor a few weeks back (Jan 19th) regarding ASICs on the network - supposedly there was a batch of 5000 miners manufactured for a private Chinese farm that went online just recently. It seems to be pretty feasible after comparing against some analytics done on the nonce ranges of historic blocks:

https://github.com/noncesense-research-lab/nonce_distribution/blob/master/nonce_distribution.ipynb

Conveniently enough, this analysis concludes the miners came online around Jan 9th. Some chit-chat from IRC matches up as well:

Quote
<@solar> i got some confirmation about asics too
<@solar> there's at least 1 group with cnv2 asics, 65nm
<@solar> supposedly a batch of 5000

<sech1> So after a thorough analysis of the winning nonces for blocks 1760000-1765000 I can say this about ASICs that are on the network now:
<sech1> 320 cores (10 chips x 32 cores?)
<sech1> each core processes nonces with 2^22 step - from 0 to ~1.34e9
<sech1> Single core speed is 400 h/s - calculated from the area of spikes (which come with 2^22 step) on winning nonce graph
<sech1> Overall ASIC device speed = 128 kh/s (400*320)
<sech1> Around 4000-4500 ASICs online now

<sech1> M5M400 they do mine on public pools: f2pool, viabtc, poolin - they all submit blocks with winning nonces strictly in ASIC nonce ranges
<sech1> all 3 are Chinese pools ironically
<sech1> so we can just count them in "unknown hashrate" part
<sech1> which leaves only 230 MH/s known
<sech1> and 641 MH/s = almost exactly 5000 * 128 kh/s solar

At the time of this post, network hashrate is 850 MH/s (640 MH/s being 75% unknown), putting us squarely in the danger zone for network-level attacks. This is also a major drain on public pools - with only 230MH/s of "legitimate" miners popular pools are operating at a significant loss, having only 60-70 MH/s on average (e.g. SupportXMR at 0.6% is just below $1300/mo, while their server expenses are approximately $5000/mo). With the next hard fork still a few months out this is a completely unsustainable scenario and will eventually lead to the closure and consolidation of the public pools, not to mention a mass exodus of "legitimate" miners.
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February 07, 2019, 11:42:41 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (3)
 #40337

All miners are legitimate miners, what do you think they are buying if they really built this new tech?

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February 07, 2019, 11:57:21 AM
 #40338

I meant "legitimate miners" to mean CPU/GPU miners using publicly available software and commodity hardware. It excludes FPGA and ASIC miners.
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February 07, 2019, 12:32:59 PM
 #40339

XMR and other large coins have lost too much value. Now a new story can be written. One possibility is that bitcoin could go down to $ 2400. And now the rise will begin.
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February 08, 2019, 04:23:46 AM
 #40340

I don't know, why you guys panic. Low prices + hash rate goes up = high prices in the near future
 Wink Cheesy

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