[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day.  Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses?  What was the difference in the two?

Bitpay's proposal has no miner penalty on block size increases. It's problematic to do that in Bitcoin since the block reward is going away, but they didn't even try.

[TechorMarketing]

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.  

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day.  Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses?  What was the difference in the two?  I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward.  Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Do have a source for the Peter Todd comments? I would be interested in reading them.

[dEBRUYNE]

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day.  Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses?  What was the difference in the two?  I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward.  Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Core did not conceed as far as I know. A few blockstreams members independently did, but core as an "entity" didn't. If aforementioned is erroneous, could you point me to where they conceeded on it?

[wpalczynski]

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.  

Maybe this ALT bloodbath is caused by something brewing with Bitcoin we are not privy too.

[ArticMine]

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.  

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day.  Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses?  What was the difference in the two?  I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward.  Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Monero's adaptive blocksize limit relies on a miner penalty that depends upon the block reward. It simply will not work in a coin without a tail emission or demurrage since once the block reward runs out there is no miner penalty. Yes this includes most Cryptonote coins starting with Bytecoin. Aeon's I understand is the exception among Cryptonote coins. My take is that the tail emission in Digitalnote is way to low for the adaptive blocksize limit to work but I have not looked at this particular case in detail. Bytecoin may because of the two year premine / ninjamine lead provide a very good case on how an adaptive blocksize limit can fail in the absence of a tail emission or demurrage. The small block group in Bitcoin do make a very good case here.

As for Bitcoin or Bitcoin like coins it will also not work. One notable exception is Dogecoin because it has a tail emission. The other alternative to a tail emission would be demurrage so one could for example add a Monero style adaptive blocksize limit to Freicoin.

[dEBRUYNE]

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.  

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day.  Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses?  What was the difference in the two?  I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward.  Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Monero's adaptive blocksize limit relies on a miner penalty that depends upon the block reward. It simply will not work in a coin without a tail emission or demurrage since once the block reward runs out there is no miner penalty. Yes this includes most Cryptonote coins starting with Bytecoin. Aeon's I understand is the exception among Cryptonote coins. My take is that the tail emission in Digitalnote is way to low for the adaptive blocksize limit to work but I have not looked at this particular case in detail. Bytecoin may because of the two year premine / ninjamine lead provide a very good case on how an adaptive blocksize limit can fail in the absence of a tail emission or demurrage. The small block group in Bitcoin do make a very good case here.

As for Bitcoin or Bitcoin like coins it will also not work. One notable exception is Dogecoin because it has a tail emission. The other alternative to a tail emission would be demurrage so one could for example add a Monero style adaptive blocksize limit to Freicoin.

To add, Bitpay didn't add a penalty in their proposal as far as I know. They could theoretically make use of a penalty until the blockreward drops below a sufficient level. However, like I stated a few times already, "information" like this gets discounted back to the present and included in the price perception.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.

I think a lot of bitcoin speculators will be badly burned in July, as everyone seems so sure the price is going to increase with the halving. In reality, I expect the BTC price to plummet as miners abandon ship en masse.

I do agree with you, however, that the delusion will certainly steal some thunder from the alt scene (at least at first).

[smooth]

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.

I think a lot of bitcoin speculators will be badly burned in July, as everyone seems so sure the price is going to increase with the halving. In reality, I expect the BTC price to plummet as miners abandon ship en masse.

I doubt miners will abandon ship, unless there is a price drop first. The argument that much of the mining is recent-gen ASICs that are mining at <0.5 BTC variable costs per BTC is reasonable.

I do think there is a high risk that many speculators and long-term holders who listen to people like r0ach and are waiting for the halving pump to cash out will all still cash out when it doesn't happen, leading to a bloodbath (which may in turn destroy the hash rate).

[rdnkjdi]

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.

I think a lot of bitcoin speculators will be badly burned in July, as everyone seems so sure the price is going to increase with the halving. In reality, I expect the BTC price to plummet as miners abandon ship en masse.

I do agree with you, however, that the delusion will certainly steal some thunder from the alt scene (at least at first).

I would have agreed with you before I saw the rise of Ethereum with 50% of bitcoins volume and reaching 1/6th of it's market cap.  I'm not so sure that bitcoin can't go down at the same rate as alts go up under the right circumstances.

[lolikop]

Every dump follows with a 10k+ sell wall  to get the price lower but it fails every time


When are they gonna stop? how much coins do they have left?

[americanpegasus]

Yup a lot of words to basically say what I have been saying, greedy slimeballs infest this thread, more than any other coins combined. In DASH you only have toknormal and quizzie manipulating the morons at will. ETH has its own indentified slimes.

Sure lets "retest" 230k because that number feels better in my ass. Keep fucking each other up. Moon is around the corner.

It's not "greedy slimeballs", it's just random people like American Pegasus spamming the coin is going to be worth $5 billion dollars each before dinner time, or TrueCryptonaire saying it's going to be worth $100 each in 2014 and $1000 each by 2016.  If people trade on that advice, it's probably not going to work.  Just because he has unrealistic expectations or might not be the greatest of traders doesn't mean the thread is full of manipulators.

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.  That is, unless you have so much money that tossing a few thousand at Monero is inconsequential.

Now that's not fair.  I repeatedly said an honest and fair price for Monero is about $4 to $5 by this fall.  I think next year we may see $40.  I think by 2020 we will see $2000, and by 2030 we may see $100,000+.  
  
That's assuming continued development and adoption.  If those conditions are met, these estimates are quite reasonable.  Of course you need to remember that I am just a guy with opinions, some of which may be wrong.  As well, I always stress that nothing moves up in a straight line - we will have many corrections and rocketships on our way up, many of which will be unpredictable.

[iCEBREAKER]

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.  

Maybe this ALT bloodbath is caused by something brewing with Bitcoin we are not privy too.

Maybe this ALT bloodbath is only the other side of the massive ALT pump we saw starting in late Feb.  Regardless, I'm loving the gargantuan XMR volume!   

This "BTC is a mess" meme is increasingly hilarious as the price stays above $400 (indicating $1 million/day fiat inflow).

This "BTC development is stagnant" meme is getting beyond ridiculous, as development is accelerating and the pipeline is stuffed with new features.  The funniest Buttcoiner rationalization I've seen of this is the idea all that new tech is solely to benefit Blockstream (and thus doesn't really count).

Don't try to confuse the Buttcoiners with the fact of rapid development readily verifiable on github, because their minds are made up!   

[r0ach]

I do think there is a high risk that many speculators and long-term holders who listen to people like r0ach and are waiting for the halving pump to cash out will all still cash out when it doesn't happen, leading to a bloodbath (which may in turn destroy the hash rate).

The only reason people "cash out" of things is fear of losing money or better time opportunity costs.  The fact that there is almost nothing worth cashing out to is the problem with your hypothesis.  People are starting to acknoweldge the fact that having money in a bank or stock market is either similar risk or more dangerous than having it in BTC.  Every day that goes by the appeal of cashing out of BTC drops.

[explorer]

Every dump follows with a 10k+ sell wall  to get the price lower but it fails every time


When are they gonna stop? how much coins do they have left?

Ya, definitely not Alice Bob and Charlie taking profits.  Someone is trying to exit a sizable position without
  A) completely trashing the market,
  B) leaving excess profit on the table.

Was OTC considered?  Good chance it would have been healthier for the bottom line.  Of course, if the coins are on Polo, it might be difficult to get them off in a timely manner without supplying one's firstborn.  You never know what goes on...

[tifozi]

Doesn't seem like an altcoin bloodbath. Just Monero bloodbath  Some guys might have co-ordinated these dumps and now suddenly it does look like the charts that  a few have posted. In crypto markets people first dump, then come back with the charts about how it will look like after the rest of them dump 

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.

I think a lot of bitcoin speculators will be badly burned in July, as everyone seems so sure the price is going to increase with the halving. In reality, I expect the BTC price to plummet as miners abandon ship en masse.

I doubt miners will abandon ship, unless there is a price drop first. The argument that much of the mining is recent-gen ASICs that are mining at <0.5 BTC variable costs per BTC is reasonable.

I'm not suggesting a loss in hash rate would cause the price drop. I'm saying the halving will mark the end of domestic (non-chinese) mining at any significant scale. Miners with a dramatically lower cost per BTC will price everyone else out of the market.

[Lebubar]

Yup a lot of words to basically say what I have been saying, greedy slimeballs infest this thread, more than any other coins combined. In DASH you only have toknormal and quizzie manipulating the morons at will. ETH has its own indentified slimes.

Sure lets "retest" 230k because that number feels better in my ass. Keep fucking each other up. Moon is around the corner.

It's not "greedy slimeballs", it's just random people like American Pegasus spamming the coin is going to be worth $5 billion dollars each before dinner time, or TrueCryptonaire saying it's going to be worth $100 each in 2014 and $1000 each by 2016.  If people trade on that advice, it's probably not going to work.  Just because he has unrealistic expectations or might not be the greatest of traders doesn't mean the thread is full of manipulators.

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.  That is, unless you have so much money that tossing a few thousand at Monero is inconsequential.

Now that's not fair.  I repeatedly said an honest and fair price for Monero is about $4 to $5 by this fall.  I think next year we may see $40.  I think by 2020 we will see $2000, and by 2030 we may see $100,000+.  
  
That's assuming continued development and adoption.  If those conditions are met, these estimates are quite reasonable.  Of course you need to remember that I am just a guy with opinions, some of which may be wrong.  As well, I always stress that nothing moves up in a straight line - we will have many corrections and rocketships on our way up, many of which will be unpredictable.

This is exactly and certainly the kind of shit you are saying that was referring r0ach. How can you say such bullshit?
What is your bid for year 2500 or 3000?

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Now that's not fair.  I repeatedly said an honest and fair price for Monero is about $4 to $5 by this fall.  I think next year we may see $40.  I think by 2020 we will see $2000, and by 2030 we may see $100,000+.  
  
That's assuming continued development and adoption.  If those conditions are met, these estimates are quite reasonable.  Of course you need to remember that I am just a guy with opinions, some of which may be wrong.  As well, I always stress that nothing moves up in a straight line - we will have many corrections and rocketships on our way up, many of which will be unpredictable.

This is exactly and certainly the kind of shit you are saying that was referring r0ach. How can you say such bullshit?
What is your bid for year 2500 or 3000?

Are you some kind of fortune teller who knows better than anyone else what the future brings? You could say AP's predictions are foolish, but calling them "bullshit" makes you no less foolish.

[americanpegasus]

Yup a lot of words to basically say what I have been saying, greedy slimeballs infest this thread, more than any other coins combined. In DASH you only have toknormal and quizzie manipulating the morons at will. ETH has its own indentified slimes.

Sure lets "retest" 230k because that number feels better in my ass. Keep fucking each other up. Moon is around the corner.

It's not "greedy slimeballs", it's just random people like American Pegasus spamming the coin is going to be worth $5 billion dollars each before dinner time, or TrueCryptonaire saying it's going to be worth $100 each in 2014 and $1000 each by 2016.  If people trade on that advice, it's probably not going to work.  Just because he has unrealistic expectations or might not be the greatest of traders doesn't mean the thread is full of manipulators.

I personally think anyone trading altcoins this close to BTC halving is insane, but that's just my opinion, man.  That is, unless you have so much money that tossing a few thousand at Monero is inconsequential.

Now that's not fair.  I repeatedly said an honest and fair price for Monero is about $4 to $5 by this fall.  I think next year we may see $40.  I think by 2020 we will see $2000, and by 2030 we may see $100,000+.  
  
That's assuming continued development and adoption.  If those conditions are met, these estimates are quite reasonable.  Of course you need to remember that I am just a guy with opinions, some of which may be wrong.  As well, I always stress that nothing moves up in a straight line - we will have many corrections and rocketships on our way up, many of which will be unpredictable.

This is exactly and certainly the kind of shit you are saying that was referring r0ach. How can you say such bullshit?
What is your bid for year 2500 or 3000?

How do you propose Monero become a global financial network without a market cap of at least $5 trillion?  And if Monero will still be around in 2030 then it must have such a market cap to still be alive.  And if it has such a market cap, then it will be worth around $100,000 per Monero.  
  
So I don't see what the problem is.  By 2030, Monero will either be worth $100,000+ each or $0 each.  The good news is we are currently quite close to that $0 each, making Monero a good long term bet.  
  
I encourage everyone to start with premise that 'Monero is a scam' and work backwards from there understanding g why it's not, and finally coming to understand that unless something drastically better takes its place there are few future possibilities where Monero doesn't become one of the most valuable assets in the world.

[lolikop]

Real war going on right now with XMR next leg should be even stronger then 400% rise over the last 2 months