[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

...

I tend to agree with this post mainly.
However as regards of botnet miners, what is exactly the bad thing about it (besides it makes it harder to mine for average Joe who has all the sympathies of us?). If I am not mistaken, botnets actually benefits the coin as the mining is more diversified as opposed to bitcoin that are mined in a large scale at "mining factories" in Iceland or China....

Lets not forget if the botnets are not mining they are DDoSing.

[GingerAle]

My version of a reality check:

TA on Monero:
   Yes. It has meaning, but Monero is thinly traded on a single exchange primarily, and it has a fairly small liquid available float and it is tightly held by zealots while some traders duke it out with what's left over to shoot back and forth at each other.

Monero is an alt coin:
Alts are just simply negative EV propositions. Period.  Take a look at historical charts for all alt coins. The all look like triple black diamond ski slopes.  There are obvious reasons for this.  Most alts are scams. All alts are competing with papa bitcoin for value.  

Alts are all suffering badly right now.
Look at polo. Its a effing bloodbath.

Moneros dirty little secret is botnet miners.
There are some good arguments to be made for botnets.  But there are some unfortunate realities too.  One is it is highly profitable for bot shepherds to mine mine mine dump rinse and repeat.  Some may like making videos of the dumps with music soundtracks and digs at rich Finns.

All the talk about manipulation etc... Meh.  Sure there is some, but the conspiracy theories floating around sound pretty silly to me.

Monero goes up. Monero goes down.  Without a fairly lucky black swan type event 'down' is gonna dominate.

I personally think it's worth the risk.  I think it is one of the only cryptocurrencies which has a good shot.

cAPS out...

I tend to agree with this post mainly.
However as regards of botnet miners, what is exactly the bad thing about it (besides it makes it harder to mine for average Joe who has all the sympathies of us?). If I am not mistaken, botnets actually benefits the coin as the mining is more diversified as opposed to bitcoin that are mined in a large scale at "mining factories" in Iceland or China.

The charts look bearish, and I am looking at 0.001 btc price to be the price I will buy more. If we do not get there ever again, then great. If we get there, I will be a buyer. On the other hand, I am also a buyer on the way up (but obviously much smaller scale).

My current holdings are so small that I did not even bother to sell and dump on you guys so I guess I am sinking with you all the way to the bottom (whatever it will be). Some resistance is at 0.002-0.0025 levels but if there will be no bullish leg with major buying, we are definetely going down from there at some point. Usually it takes a few months for the price to consolidate and stabilize to 0.001.

1st bold: My take has always been that the botnet operators can sell at whatever price they feel was worth their time. All other types of professional miners (GPU farms) have a very obvious maintenance cost - electricity. Thus, there is some incentive to sell at a price that covers their electricity costs. For botnets, that doesn't exist.

2nd bold: I find it odd that the patterns of the past 2 years are being used to gauge what the price of monero will do. There are less and less monero being made every day. There is an event occurring in the next 4 months that will reverberate through the entire ecosystem in some for or another (bitcoin halvening). There's friggin ringCT coming eventually, which as I understand it, greases the development of multisignature transactions. There's so much good new stuff going on in our little space, coupled with some completely unknown stuff (the halvening), that I find it bonkers that the past two years is indicative of anything that will happen.

But then again I speculate bananas. This is all just manipulation. Damn shame its difficult to use Monero easily. I should work on getting shen's server app into the monerodo OS.

[cAPSLOCK]

I tend to agree with this post mainly.
However as regards of botnet miners, what is exactly the bad thing about it (besides it makes it harder to mine for average Joe who has all the sympathies of us?). If I am not mistaken, botnets actually benefits the coin as the mining is more diversified as opposed to bitcoin that are mined in a large scale at "mining factories" in Iceland or China.

I did mention there are some positive (or neutral) arguments to be made for botnet's involvement in monero mining.

Is outside the scope of this thread somewhat, and my opinion is just that... My opinion.

I see botnets as a net negative for monero for multiple reasons. But the most compelling to me is the ethical angle.  Botnets herders are committing privacy violation, theft, and exploitation.  I am a "your liberty to swing your fist end at my nose" type of libertarian.  Botnet herders are unethical in my opinion.

[Hueristic]

...

I see botnets as a net negative for monero for multiple reasons. But the most compelling to me is the ethical angle.  Botnets herders are committing privacy violation, theft, and exploitation.  I am a "your liberty to swing your fist end at my nose" type of libertarian.  Botnet herders are unethical in my opinion.

No-one is disagreeing with this, it's just the lesser of 2 or more evils and it helps secure the chain. No-one is gonna stop botnets on ethical reasons. The way Os's are created and maintained inevitably will lead to them being around for the foreseeable future.

[explorer]

Now 250 is taking it in the knee caps.  Almost there?  240 ish?

[Kramerc]

How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

[TrueCryptonaire]

How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

It is because Monero is way too speculative at the moment.
There are not much (significiant enough) fundamentals to maintain the price apparently.
However, these issues probably will be fixed soon ^TM.

Personally I am still bullish but only long term. I am a buyer at 0.001.

[owm123]

How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

Everything is red on polo on btc market now. So its not only xmr. eth is also getting hammered significantly. The question is where is bottom?

[explorer]

How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

Everything is red on polo on btc market now. So its not only xmr. eth is also getting hammered significantly. The question is where is bottom?

I'm gonna go with 247 

[bitebits]

I'd agree if BTC wasn't such a mess.

But it's not.  Segwit + Core conceded on hardfork = 3.2mb blocks in 2017.  I see the glass ceiling on BTC price coming off mostly around 8-10MB blocks, so it's not far off.  

But about Monero, I think I saw Peter Todd claiming the Bitpay or something or other company's idea for dynamic block size was a "broken" idea the other day.  Wasn't Bitpay's idea the same thing Monero already uses?  What was the difference in the two?  I would find it hard to believe he would say that solely because of a missing non-zero block reward.  Someone needs to question the Todd and get him to clarify these statements as they relate to Monero.

Do have a source for the Peter Todd comments? I would be interested in reading them.

https://petertodd.org/2016/btcc-funding

No explanation why though:

given that poor communication it’s no surprise that we’re seeing fundamentally broken proposals like BitPay’s Adaptive Block Size Limit

And here Peter Todd loses his mind thinking that he is somehow in control of bitcoin + reveals the Blockstream agenda:

Would I personally support doing a hard fork that was expected to activate within two or three months as a replacement for that capacity increase, if techniques like the above were used? If major industry players were willing to commit to layer 2 solutions, I’d be willing to support something like a forced soft fork, and I’d be willing to support a coin voting hard fork even if they didn’t.

[Kramerc]

How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

Everything is red on polo on btc market now. So its not only xmr. eth is also getting hammered significantly. The question is where is bottom?

I'm gonna go with 247 

Nope :/

[explorer]

How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

Everything is red on polo on btc market now. So its not only xmr. eth is also getting hammered significantly. The question is where is bottom?

I'm gonna go with 247 

As I'm sitting there, perusing the chart, I note that there are 35K+ XMR down to 242.  Thus far, an accumulation like that has typically been dumped on within a minute or so.  And within a minute, it was.  This is getting predictable. Final dump?  Doubt it.

[inca]

Time to add more xmr thanks dumpers.


Edit: what I see looking in from btc is a manipulative dump with some follow through selling to paint the chart as if the price is heading back to 0.001. Hopefully I can pickup a few 10k more if it slides down further. What a thin market this is.

Despite alts dumping btc hasn't budged. It will break down or up soon (order by my assessment of direction) and then things get interesting. ALTs are probably going to have a tough time unless btc moons. Time to begin accumulating if you believe in the XMR chain.

[DonYo]

I can make this the bottom.  I will dump everything I have on polo (you probably won't notice)  and that will cause an abrupt increase in price, never to revisit.  Are y'all ready for this?!

Anyway my average buy price is around 0.018 so I'm eating popcorns meanwhile Monero does Monero things, and if it goes lower than 0.02 I will buy more

[pinky]

~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

[Barney]

~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low

[pinky]

~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low

Could happen, but then XMR is dead and you can start shorting to 0.

[inca]

~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low

Ha. Why not shake out everyone?

[explorer]

~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low

Ya, you wait for that     0.001 will be very difficult to reach, IMO. 

[Barney]

Yea going to 0.001 may shakeout myself as well