[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

Red hammer just got painted on the daily XMR/XBT chart.

Look at the handle on that thing!
Also, record high XMR/BTC volume day, in the books.

[ArticMine]

...
What is a red hammer?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hammer.asp
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/Hammer.html

[nioc]

There are many assumptions about the Bitcoin markets that are simply no longer the case. The most blatant is that the  most liquid XBT markets or the "major" markets are XBT/USD pairs. This is simply no longer the case Ethereum accounted for over 50% of Bitcoin trading, over the last 24 hours, with by far the largest Bitcoin market being the ETH/XBT pair on Poloniex. By comparison XBT/USD  accounted for around 17%. during the same period. One can see this by comparing https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/?markets=all#markets with https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/?markets=main#markets. Note I have excluded the exchanges that have no trading fees mostly in China due to the high probability  of fake trades; however they may be some legitimate trading going on there.

XMR/XBT on Poloniex accounts for 1.8% of Bitcoin trades followed by DASH/XBT and MAID/XBT on Poloniex at just under 1% each. To put this into perspective XMR/XBT on Poloniex is comparable to XBT/USD on Coinbase at 1.9% and was actually ahead earlier today.

What we are witnessing is a shift of Bitcoin trading away from fiat to alt-coins, with by far the preferred choice being Ethereum followed by Monero and Dash.  We have also witnessed Poloniex becoming the largest Bitcoin exchange by volume. We are also seeing a lot of the value in Bitcoin moving towards the alts rather than fiat. One possible outcome here is that a shift from Bitcoin to another alt-coin will not necessarily imply a lost in trust in Crypto currency as a whole.

So what do I see is the impact on Monero. First the fundamentals have not changed over the last few days. Secondly Monero is starting to be traded as a hedge against Bitcoin's problems. Over the short term this will lead to extreme volatility as we have seen lately; however over the long term this can be very bullish simply because of Monero's minuscule market capitalization when compared to Bitcoin. One significant factor here is that there are ample supplies of XMR available at a price. This will fuel both liquidity (good) and volatility (bad) over the short term. Also if Ethereum stumbles it is quite possible for a major upside move in Monero with possibility Dash and Maidsafe coming along for the ride.

As always thank you for your unique insights.

[vuduchyld]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday. 

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

[r0ach]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday. 

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

[smooth]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday. 

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

Started during the BTC up move in October and has been more or less that way ever since, with a slight divergence during the period of maximum velocity for ETH (ETH was sucking in capital from other alts regardless of what BTC did). It seems incorrect in this environment to try to analyze the movements of any particular alt without understand the backdrop of the overall BTC/alt trend.

[ArticMine]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday.  

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

Started during the BTC up move in October and has been more or less that way ever since, with a slight divergence during the period of maximum velocity for ETH (ETH was sucking in capital from other alts regardless of what BTC did). It seems incorrect in this environment to try to analyze the movements of any particular alt without understand the backdrop of the overall BTC/alt trend.

I suspect it is more those alt-coins that differ from Bitcoin in a significant way. Litecoin and Dogecoin have hardly moved this time around. It seems to me that Ethereum was the leader this time around. Monero was the second and was impacted more because of a much smaller capitalization relative to volume.

Edit: It would be interesting to see if Monero decouples in a significant way from Ethereum in this, although at this point I suspect the Monero market capitalization is simply too small for this to happen yet.

[spatula]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday.  

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

Started during the BTC up move in October and has been more or less that way ever since, with a slight divergence during the period of maximum velocity for ETH (ETH was sucking in capital from other alts regardless of what BTC did). It seems incorrect in this environment to try to analyze the movements of any particular alt without understand the backdrop of the overall BTC/alt trend.

I suspect it is more those alt-coins that differ from Bitcoin in a significant way. Litecoin and Dogecoin have hardly moved this time around. It seems to me that Ethereum was the leader this time around. Monero was the second and was impacted more because of a much smaller capitalization relative to volume.

Edit: It would be interesting to see if Monero decouples in a significant way from Ethereum in this, although at this point I suspect the Monero market capitalization is simply too small for this to happen yet.

What about DASH then? DASH and XMR both went up at pretty much the same rate at the same time during this last run up, but XMR went down and DASH stayed up. What the heck does that mean?

[stealth923]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday.  

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

Started during the BTC up move in October and has been more or less that way ever since, with a slight divergence during the period of maximum velocity for ETH (ETH was sucking in capital from other alts regardless of what BTC did). It seems incorrect in this environment to try to analyze the movements of any particular alt without understand the backdrop of the overall BTC/alt trend.

I suspect it is more those alt-coins that differ from Bitcoin in a significant way. Litecoin and Dogecoin have hardly moved this time around. It seems to me that Ethereum was the leader this time around. Monero was the second and was impacted more because of a much smaller capitalization relative to volume.

Edit: It would be interesting to see if Monero decouples in a significant way from Ethereum in this, although at this point I suspect the Monero market capitalization is simply too small for this to happen yet.

What about DASH then? DASH and XMR both went up at pretty much the same rate at the same time during this last run up, but XMR went down and DASH stayed up. What the heck does that mean?

one is a shitcoin, the other isnt.

[spatula]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday.  

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

Started during the BTC up move in October and has been more or less that way ever since, with a slight divergence during the period of maximum velocity for ETH (ETH was sucking in capital from other alts regardless of what BTC did). It seems incorrect in this environment to try to analyze the movements of any particular alt without understand the backdrop of the overall BTC/alt trend.

I suspect it is more those alt-coins that differ from Bitcoin in a significant way. Litecoin and Dogecoin have hardly moved this time around. It seems to me that Ethereum was the leader this time around. Monero was the second and was impacted more because of a much smaller capitalization relative to volume.

Edit: It would be interesting to see if Monero decouples in a significant way from Ethereum in this, although at this point I suspect the Monero market capitalization is simply too small for this to happen yet.

What about DASH then? DASH and XMR both went up at pretty much the same rate at the same time during this last run up, but XMR went down and DASH stayed up. What the heck does that mean?

one is a shitcoin, the other isnt.

Well that's not really fair. DASH and XMR are both very real, legitimate coins, despite what either community trolls say about the other. The fact that their chats are always pretty similar seem to show that the market agrees with me. What I don't understand is why XMR would detach from DASH and fall so drastically.

Any (non "scam" or "shitcoin") theories on whats going on?

[ArticMine]

...

What about DASH then? DASH and XMR both went up at pretty much the same rate at the same time during this last run up, but XMR went down and DASH stayed up. What the heck does that mean?

Take a look at DASH/XMR with settings of all and 1 day. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash. DASH is actually trading towards the low end of its historical range since November 2014 so it is not surprising that DASH held up better this time.

...

one is a shitcoin, the other isnt.

Well that's not really fair. DASH and XMR are both very real, legitimate coins, despite what either community trolls say about the other. The fact that their chats are always pretty similar seem to show that the market agrees with me. What I don't understand is why XMR would detach from DASH and fall so drastically.

Any (non "scam" or "shitcoin") theories on whats going on?

To be blunt I do not see this as really relevant here. The issue is that the market is voting for or against Bitcoin rather than for or against Monero, Ethereum, DASH etc.  I suspect to a large degree this is over the blocksize issue in Bitcoin and based to a large degree around short term perceptions and emotions rather than any long term fundamentals.

My take is that:
1) Monero is not impacted by the blocksize scaling issue.
2) DASH for better or worse is not perceived to have this scaling issue. Furthermore because of the pending DASH Evolution it is far from clear how DASH is impacted by the blocksize scaling issue.
3) Ethereum may actually have worse scaling issues than Bitcoin but the market has yet to figure this out.

[rangedriver]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday.  

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

Started during the BTC up move in October and has been more or less that way ever since, with a slight divergence during the period of maximum velocity for ETH (ETH was sucking in capital from other alts regardless of what BTC did). It seems incorrect in this environment to try to analyze the movements of any particular alt without understand the backdrop of the overall BTC/alt trend.

I suspect it is more those alt-coins that differ from Bitcoin in a significant way. Litecoin and Dogecoin have hardly moved this time around. It seems to me that Ethereum was the leader this time around. Monero was the second and was impacted more because of a much smaller capitalization relative to volume.

Edit: It would be interesting to see if Monero decouples in a significant way from Ethereum in this, although at this point I suspect the Monero market capitalization is simply too small for this to happen yet.

What about DASH then? DASH and XMR both went up at pretty much the same rate at the same time during this last run up, but XMR went down and DASH stayed up. What the heck does that mean?

one is a shitcoin, the other isnt.

Well that's not really fair. DASH and XMR are both very real, legitimate coins, despite what either community trolls say about the other. The fact that their chats are always pretty similar seem to show that the market agrees with me. What I don't understand is why XMR would detach from DASH and fall so drastically.

Any (non "scam" or "shitcoin") theories on whats going on?

Everyone wants Monero as cheap as possible, including independent mega-whales. If the hive-mind determines that Monero could fall (in light of a possible BTC rise) then it gives rise to the possibility of acquiring even more Monero.

Thus, carnage ensues.

The same is not true for Dash because there isn't as much confidence in its longevity. No-one is trying to get Dash for cheap prices (for example) because it doesn't project the same amount of enthusiasm.

[TPTB_need_war]

The same is not true for Dash because there isn't as much confidence in its longetivity. No-one is trying to get Dash for cheap prices (for example) because it doesn't project the same amount of enthusiasm.

Monero is more free market due to its wider distribution, thus being such a small cap, it will display more bidirectional volatility than a manipulated market. As an advantage, it has more true liquidity, since I presume much of the exchange volume in Dash is insiders buying from themselves with a bot.

If you are a whale, you can't buy and then sell Dash. Not enough liquidity. Your only option is to sleep with Evan.

[smooth]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday.  

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

I think you got things kind of backwards here.  If you had been paying attention to the Bologniex casino at all lately, you'd notice all of a sudden you'd have these days where numerous altcoins were all up 15% with the entire board going green.  Now we have the same type of days in reverse with them all going red.  It seems like there's some type of big money indicies that can't be bothered to investigate any of these coins and just started hedging in them.  Now they seem to be reverse hedging for BTC halving.  In the past, you never really saw days like this where all altcoins follow each other no matter how bad or good.

Started during the BTC up move in October and has been more or less that way ever since, with a slight divergence during the period of maximum velocity for ETH (ETH was sucking in capital from other alts regardless of what BTC did). It seems incorrect in this environment to try to analyze the movements of any particular alt without understand the backdrop of the overall BTC/alt trend.

I suspect it is more those alt-coins that differ from Bitcoin in a significant way. Litecoin and Dogecoin have hardly moved this time around. It seems to me that Ethereum was the leader this time around. Monero was the second and was impacted more because of a much smaller capitalization relative to volume.

Edit: It would be interesting to see if Monero decouples in a significant way from Ethereum in this, although at this point I suspect the Monero market capitalization is simply too small for this to happen yet.

What about DASH then? DASH and XMR both went up at pretty much the same rate at the same time during this last run up, but XMR went down and DASH stayed up. What the heck does that mean?

one is a shitcoin, the other isnt.

Let's try to observe the thread topic rules and comment with substance. I don't care which coin you think is crap, but if you think that has an effect on the current market action, give specific reasons.

Non-substantive comments such as Monero sucks, Monero is a scam, Monero is great, Monero to the moon, etc. are considered off topic. Every post and reply should add to the discussion.

[spatula]

...

What about DASH then? DASH and XMR both went up at pretty much the same rate at the same time during this last run up, but XMR went down and DASH stayed up. What the heck does that mean?

Take a look at DASH/XMR with settings of all and 1 day. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash. DASH is actually trading towards the low end of its historical range since November 2014 so it is not surprising that DASH held up better this time.

...

one is a shitcoin, the other isnt.

Well that's not really fair. DASH and XMR are both very real, legitimate coins, despite what either community trolls say about the other. The fact that their chats are always pretty similar seem to show that the market agrees with me. What I don't understand is why XMR would detach from DASH and fall so drastically.

Any (non "scam" or "shitcoin") theories on whats going on?

To be blunt I do not see this as really relevant here. The issue is that the market is voting for or against Bitcoin rather than for or against Monero, Ethereum, DASH etc.  I suspect to a large degree this is over the blocksize issue in Bitcoin and based to a large degree around short term perceptions and emotions rather than any long term fundamentals.

My take is that:
1) Monero is not impacted by the blocksize scaling issue.
2) DASH for better or worse is not perceived to have this scaling issue. Furthermore because of the pending DASH Evolution it is far from clear how DASH is impacted by the blocksize scaling issue.
3) Ethereum may actually have worse scaling issues than Bitcoin but the market has yet to figure this out.

Ok thanks, this does make sense. (unlike the other responses that are still very much "my coin is better than your coin" BS)

It's just most of my trades in DASH and XMR are with the mindset that they go up and down at pretty much the same rate, and if one starts moving the other will follow. This was just an abnormal event so I was curious as to what might be the cause.

[TPTB_need_war]

1) Monero is not impacted by the blocksize scaling issue.

Agreed in the sense that Monero will scale up the block size by algorithm so devoid of the rigor mortis politics plaguing Bitcoin at the moment.

Note that Monero will likely centralize as block size scales up and I even refuted you on the claim that Monero's algorithm to prevent the Tragedy of the Commons can be gamed and thus won't be an absolute defense.

Nevertheless, Monero has a lot of growth ahead before this becomes an issue, especially with the ASIC resistant proof-of-work hash Cryptonite, which will forestall centralization for a while.

If you want to discuss technology further, please reply to this in the Monero Technical thread.

[iCEBREAKER]

Help me with some personal perspective, here.

To me, it seems a little bit like XMR was the catalyst for this entire bloodbath weekend for alts.  XMR took that massive pounding on the huge selloff Friday evening.  I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me as though at the time, XMR was the only alt significantly in the red.  Most of the rest of the leaderboard on Polo was still green until sometime Saturday, and then the selloff was pretty far and wide Saturday night and Sunday. 

Am I imagining this?

Does it mean anything that XMR would be the canary in the coal mine?

XMR may have been a co-factor, but ETH is the dominant catalyst driving the alt market's moons and bloodbaths.

It is funny how some alts begin to wane while others wax, with ETH being AFAIK the leading indicator and MAID trailing.

But at present I don't see the tiny XMR tail wagging the giant alt market dog.  I'd love to see that, eventually.   

[elrippo]

Let's take a look at the past 3 months on the ALT-market 

In February there started a massive rally on almost all altcoins, BTC remained stable (+/- 2,5%), and this weekend, consolidated, all altcoins dropped massively in their value.
Like i stated a month ago, this rally tasted the same as last year, at the moment speaking my forecast seems to be true, although i did not think this would happen in somewhat 3 days.
The difference in the volumes compared to last year indicates, that there was a strategy behind this all, which i think was a shifting from BTCholders to altcoins and now back to BTC
I believe this was the work of some very good investors who are able to control and manipulate the whole altcoin market, and in respect to that, we will see the same manipulation on the BTC market in a few weeks from now. The best excuse for the future BTC rally will be the "BTC halving scapegoat", and the altcoins will probably be dropped like hot potatos.

What we are now seeing in the altcoin market, tends to be the "true" value of the altcoins, meaning this is the value the community thinks, that their coins are worth. The big guys are out of the artificial pumps and leave the bagholders behind.

Mark this comment of mine, and i am not an investor in above meaning, neither a pro in trading, have a cup of tea and watch the BTC halving pump, which will also be massive in all terms. I believe we will all witness a rally (cashout) like never before, and then i am interested in the "true" value of BTC at the end of Q3 2016.

Kind regards,
elrippo

[hoertest]

blocksize issues > BTC moved into alts >calmed down BTC discussion and "halving pump expectations > alts moved back into BTC > no or disappointing halving Pump and reemerging blocksize discussion > 10x the BTC flow back into alts

at least what i hope 

[elrippo]

blocksize issues > BTC moved into alts >calmed down BTC discussion and "halving pump expectations > alts moved back into BTC > no or disappointing halving Pump and reemerging blocksize discussion > 10x the BTC flow back into alts

at least what i hope 

Let's wait and see 

Noticable: Every time Monero picks up some value, dumps accure...