[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kurious]

I make it XMR $25 based on Stamp prices.

Sweet.

[prabakharras]

Monero raising like a mountain to $25 https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/usd
Congratulations to all the winners who got right

[explorer]

I make it XMR $25 based on Stamp prices.

Sweet.

Yeah, topped C$35 today 

[KeyJockey]

I make it XMR $25 based on Stamp prices.

Sweet.

Is this dollar-denominated All Time High?  I forgot... what did we hit in dollar terms last summer?

[nanobrain]

Thanks for all the replies people Appreciated.

I could accept that the new money coming in was genuine investment if it weren't for the fact metals are currently taking a beating; if economic sentiment was so negative we would be seeing increases in traditional alternative investments as well as new alternative investments.

So the money coming into crypto is either new and naive or not looking for any long term investment; or it is not new money but existing investors who have become intoxicated with daily profits and are committing more capital.  Regardless fundamentals have become irrelevant to many.  That suits the 'whales' and the Chinese miners who, being more acquainted with cryptos whims and vagaries, are looking for a profitable exit route.  And such a route has been made more difficult by circumstances at Finex and PBC dictats.

So we find ourselves in a situation where coins with no significant utility are worth 80USD, an anonymous coin which isnt actually anonymous (I'm looking at you Dash) is worth near a 100USD and a coin that is no longer fungible is worth over 1500usd.  This strikes me as a market that has collectively lost its sense of judgement and proportion (behaviour takes strange turns in large groups) and irrational markets are neither safe nor predictable places to store wealth.
 
For me, there may well be further profits ahead but the correction is going to be swift, deep and bloody.

[aminorex]

I could accept that the new money coming in was genuine investment if it weren't for the fact metals are currently taking a beating;

Monies don't have to flow in, for btcusd to rise.  It suffices for outflows to be reduced.

As long as bitfinex arbitrageurs continue to book gains in btc, given the volumes involved in that trade, the btc avaliable for outflow sales will be constrained correspondingly.  When they decide to convert to another asset outside of crypto, btc usd will see corresponding downward pressure.

I know that at 5oz xaubtc I would be cashing out some proportion of crypto.  Others are likely to do so sooner.

[iCEBREAKER]

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

The negativity comes from FUD created by Roger, Jihan, Gavin, Sirir, Falkvinge, Janssens, and the rest of the NeverCore Butthurt Unlimited brigade.

For the past year, BTC has been afflicted by ASICboost and AntBleed creating perverse incentives for Jihan to block segwit.

Now that Bitmain's malfeasance and treachery are public knowledge, Bitcoin may respond in ways conducive to segwit activation (eg honeybadger gets medieval on Roger).  

Segwit means Lightning and Mimblewimble.  Lightning means infinite TPS, Mimblewimble means fungibility, privacy, and bounded mempool growth/management.  The market is now less hesitant to begin pricing in those milestones on the scaling roadmap.

In terms of OP, I'm expecting XMR to go up in USD, but sideways or down in BTC.  

Possible game changers: mobile wallet, Coinbase/GDAX listing, DNM acceleration, altcoin or XMR-only ETF, institutional investment, Dash implodes when Evan goes to jail, etc. 

[KeyJockey]

In terms of OP, I'm expecting XMR to go up in USD, but sideways or down in BTC.  

Yeah better get used to that... kinda already been happening lately: my "comfortable number" for XMR in BTC last couple months has been "0.015" i.e. as long as that's what's showing on my laptop's menu bar, I know Monero's okay.

Any days it was showing less than the 15's (a couple times) I got a bit concerned, but fortunately it never lasted too long.

Now however?  Today we're looking at just 16's-ish all day, bouncing 16-17 etc, so normally it'd be getting close to concern.

BUT NO, actually in fiat dollars we're hitting new highs!!   "This Is Fine"...

Just gotta get used to the new paradigm and check both numbers I guess, LOL

P.S. {Edit}

...if it weren't for the fact metals are currently taking a beating...

Bear in mind that gold and silver are very likely *still* highly manipulated to keep 'paper prices' extremely suppressed (http://www.silverdoctors.com/tag/silver-manipulation/) -- in theory crypto can't (yet?) be manipulated like this, so maybe that's why (?)

[aminorex]

Reviewing my posting history, it strikes me that I occasionally behaved quite a bit below my current standards. This note is directed to the Monero Speculation thread, because it has been my principal posting venue since it's inception, and hence my apologies are most due here.

Specifically, I wish to apologize for (1) arrogant, domineering argumentation styles or intellectual jiu jitsu, (2) self-aggrandizing impostures, (3) creating the impression that financial gain was a central goal or essential to a prosperous life, and (4) that my personal accomplishments, qualifications, or connections were somehow grandiose.  While I have not identified any actual falsehoods in my posts, upon review it is clear that some were (if not consciously, nonetheless in practice, and very likely by subconscious intent) misleading puffery, by their unstated implications.

All of these aspects of my posting history are beneath the standards to which I adhere, and could potentially work to the detriment of anyone thus misled.  I found it emotionally gratifying to boast of my successes at times when I was experiencing frustrating and humiliating setbacks in other, more important, areas.  I took on excessive risk, a form of gambling addiction, because the euphoria of rapid gains assuaged a deep internal shame at the mediocrity of my other achievements.  I was blessed to have identified a field in which, and a strategy whereby, those risks were abundantly rewarded; however, luck is not wisdom - nor is even the most incisive and insightful analysis, if it is not subordinated to the service of a worthy aim, or is conducted with inauthenticity or careless of its unintended consequences.

I like to think that my influence has helped others achieve a higher degree of financial freedom than they might otherwise have experienced.  But if that came at the cost of enslavement to greed or obsession with markets squeezing more important things out of their lives, it was no benefit, but an actual harm.

Likewise, I hope that I have encouraged preparedness for reasonably foreseeable adversities.  But if this was achieved by instilling fear or anxiety, or if it caused hostility to people associated with the mechanisms underlying the phenomena for which preparedness is warranted, I would be very much at fault.

It is my hope that by drawing attention to my past misbehaviors I can mitigate any harm which they caused.  I prefer not to further distract from the topic of this thread by engaging in a public discussion or follow-up to this post, but I am available by PM for further discussion.  In particular, if anyone finds their emotional life controlled by the events in crypto, or by their material fortunes, I would like to offer whatever help I may in escaping the kinds of addictive behaviors which yearning for a false hope have caused in me. Feel free to contact me privately.

When rising prices cause rising mood and falling prices cause falling countenance, something is very wrong.  If nothing else, it is counterproductive to good decision-making.  Don't be that guy (or gal).  Get out and enjoy the world, and do some good in it.  Be physically, emotionally, and spiritually healthier for it. I hope to see you there

[aminorex]

Segwit means Lightning and Mimblewimble.  Lightning means infinite TPS, Mimblewimble means fungibility, privacy, and bounded mempool growth/management.  

Yes.  But I wouldn't bet on that any time soon.

[bitwolf]

I make it XMR $25 based on Stamp prices.

Sweet.

Yeah, topped C$35 today 

 (yawn) Wake me when it hits 100$. I mean xmr and btc.

[kurious]

Reviewing my posting history.....

I know you said you didn't want a continuing discussion, but your mea culpa is a surprise and one I respect.

Just to say, I for one have found your posts and undoubted knowledge always worth taking on board and sometimes a revelation.  I followed you, Risto, and KFR into Monero at the point it was still being decided what to call it when no exchange was even listing it.  I obviously have no regrets.

If you are refocusing your priorities in life, good for you. And if this post was part of helping you achieve that, I hope it has done the job intended.

I am sure it is not just me who thinks you are and always have been important to the core of Monero supporters.  In my estimation, far more people here owe you thanks than you owe an apology to, if you owe any apology at all.

So yes, re-balance your life, but please don't stop dropping by and posting, whatever mood you're in!  

Good luck in focusing on what matters, instead of a screen - we probably all need to think about that.  

[kurious]

Thanks for all the replies people Appreciated.

I could accept that the new money coming in was genuine investment if it weren't for the fact metals are currently taking a beating; if economic sentiment was so negative we would be seeing increases in traditional alternative investments as well as new alternative investments.

So the money coming into crypto is either new and naive or not looking for any long term investment; or it is not new money but existing investors who have become intoxicated with daily profits and are committing more capital.  Regardless fundamentals have become irrelevant to many.  That suits the 'whales' and the Chinese miners who, being more acquainted with cryptos whims and vagaries, are looking for a profitable exit route.  And such a route has been made more difficult by circumstances at Finex and PBC dictats.

So we find ourselves in a situation where coins with no significant utility are worth 80USD, an anonymous coin which isnt actually anonymous (I'm looking at you Dash) is worth near a 100USD and a coin that is no longer fungible is worth over 1500usd.  This strikes me as a market that has collectively lost its sense of judgement and proportion (behaviour takes strange turns in large groups) and irrational markets are neither safe nor predictable places to store wealth.
 
For me, there may well be further profits ahead but the correction is going to be swift, deep and bloody.

Spot on, Nano - 'if it looks like a bubble...'  Glad I am not the only one who feels it's looking less than rational.  Yes, markets as they say can stay irrational for a long time.   But the more irrational, the bigger the crash back to reality.  

I have been having 'that 2013 feeling' and I am concerned on the fundamentals becoming unsupportable.  Carnage is now looking a possibility, so I am factoring it in.  

Sometimes it's always better to sell 'too early' than be filled with regret.

[cryptimus prime]

Aminorex you are a poet.

Some predictions for XMR on Tradingview, most call a massive bullish cycle, bullish patterns like cup and handle or reverse head and shoulders:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/fayS7Ms8-Monero-XMRBTC-Cup-Handle/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/kocZdQC5-Monero-XMRBTC-Inverse-Head-Shoulders/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/E0WJygdm-XMRBTC-new-bull-cycle/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRUSD/6HdI4WUp-XMR-MASSIVE-CUP-AND-HANDLE/

If this pattern should coincidentally overlap with some important news like coinbase or whatever...and BTC could also take a dip at the same time...

[dranster]

Aminorex you are a poet.

Some predictions for XMR on Tradingview, most call a massive bullish cycle, bullish patterns like cup and handle or reverse head and shoulders:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/fayS7Ms8-Monero-XMRBTC-Cup-Handle/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/kocZdQC5-Monero-XMRBTC-Inverse-Head-Shoulders/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/E0WJygdm-XMRBTC-new-bull-cycle/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRUSD/6HdI4WUp-XMR-MASSIVE-CUP-AND-HANDLE/

If this pattern should coincidentally overlap with some important news like coinbase or whatever...

Coinbase is not going to add a shitty 350m marketcap coin that is not even anon yet. Coinbase minimum requirements is $1 Billion marketcap and good luck with that

[cryptimus prime]

@dranster

Go and play with your Doge stash, leave this intellectually challenging discussion to the big boys, it`s nothing for you.

[iCEBREAKER]

I wish to apologize for (1) arrogant, domineering argumentation styles or intellectual jiu jitsu, (2) self-aggrandizing impostures, (3) creating the impression that financial gain was a central goal or essential to a prosperous life, and (4) that my personal accomplishments, qualifications, or connections were somehow grandiose.  While I have not identified any actual falsehoods in my posts, upon review it is clear that some were (if not consciously, nonetheless in practice, and very likely by subconscious intent) misleading puffery, by their unstated implications.

Don't apologize for that stuff.  It's what makes this thread (and forum) colorful and lots of fun.

Bitcoin runs on drama; Monero runs on comedy.

a coin that is no longer fungible is worth over 1500usd.

Bitcoin's ultimate use case, as a high-powered settlement network which keeps institutions provably honest and solvent, requires the radical transparency intrinsic to its One True Ledger.

[IntroVert]

Coinbase is not going to add a shitty 350m marketcap coin that is not even anon yet. Coinbase minimum requirements is $1 Billion marketcap and good luck with that

Not quite. LTC had less than "shitty 350m marketcap" less than 2 months ago. Pretty sure Coinbase was working on LTC support then. You can argue Charlie Lee is there and whatnot. I think they more care for staying power/track record, ability to innovate, governance and of course making money out it. XMR fits all of this.

[arbitrage]

When we are talking about market cap i cannot not to notice, differences in the number of total coins, and when you compare them XMR is in better position as more respectable, usable and precious. No one can deny XMR sucess any more!
it's just question of time.

[ozkraut]

Coinbase is not going to add a shitty 350m marketcap coin that is not even anon yet. Coinbase minimum requirements is $1 Billion marketcap and good luck with that

Not quite. LTC had less than "shitty 350m marketcap" less than 2 months ago. Pretty sure Coinbase was working on LTC support then. You can argue Charlie Lee is there and whatnot. I think they more care for staying power/track record, ability to innovate, governance and of course making money out it. XMR fits all of this.

Don't feed......and so on. That persons comment is as important as a bicycle falling over in Beijing....