[XMR] Monero Speculation

[willyum]

Where is the safest place to hold coins? Instructions on how to set up wallet would also be great I am using a mac..

[owlcatz]

Where is the safest place to hold coins? Instructions on how to set up wallet would also be great I am using a mac..

On your computer. Download/sync the blockchain using the latest binaries - once you have it synced, backup either your seed or your .keys file. I'd do both. You don't ever need to worry about your wallet once you have the seed you can always restore it from scratch. I've had one wallet for 3 years now and despite a few corruptions and issues, I've not lost anything, and it's just another reason I think XMR is ahead of BTC. Thanks.

Edit - here you go - gui2

https://getmonero.org/2017/03/29/monero-gui-beta-2-released.html

Edit 2 - Thank you Bitcoinnewsmagazine - https://www.monero.how/tutorial-how-to-use-the-monero-gui-wallet

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Good question. There is no hardware wallet for Monero yet. If you want to use the GUI just use a strong password and set up by the guide here. It would be great if there were a way to do cold storage with two computers like we used to do with Armory before Trezor came out.

[owlcatz]

Good question. There is no hardware wallet for Monero yet. If you want to use the GUI just use a strong password and set up by the guide here. It would be great if there were a way to do cold storage with two computers like we used to do with Armory before Trezor came out.

But you can do cold storage just not multisig yet - just generate an address using code from https://moneroaddress.org/ offline and fund it. I have done this a few times and have never lost anything.

[saddambitcoin]

Good question. There is no hardware wallet for Monero yet. If you want to use the GUI just use a strong password and set up by the guide here. It would be great if there were a way to do cold storage with two computers like we used to do with Armory before Trezor came out.

It is already possible to do cold storage signing of transactions with monero-wallet-cli AND the new GUI beta 2. However this is a new feature and there is little to no documentation on how to do so, apart from some guides on monero stackexchange. I'll see if I can put a quick guide together over the weekend (for GUI. anyone motivated enough to use cli these days should be able to figure it out).

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Good question. There is no hardware wallet for Monero yet. If you want to use the GUI just use a strong password and set up by the guide here. It would be great if there were a way to do cold storage with two computers like we used to do with Armory before Trezor came out.

It is already possible to do cold storage signing of transactions with monero-wallet-cli AND the new GUI beta 2. However this is a new feature and there is little to no documentation on how to do so, apart from some guides on monero stackexchange. I'll see if I can put a quick guide together over the weekend (for GUI. anyone motivated enough to use cli these days should be able to figure it out).

Hey thanks! That would be great. I have been playing around with the GUI beta 2 and have not been able to figure out the right procedure for cold storage.

[willyum]

Any idea when the hardware for a wallet will be available?

[Febo]

Any idea when the hardware for a wallet will be available?

Most likely not this year.
Tresor is now working on new version and only after will be made will start putting interest into adding new coins. Ledger is not sure what doing it has it on their road map but without any date. 
I think Ledger said that they would start doing it if they have grantee to sell 1000 Ledger wallets. You could search for that info somewhere.

[saddambitcoin]

Good question. There is no hardware wallet for Monero yet. If you want to use the GUI just use a strong password and set up by the guide here. It would be great if there were a way to do cold storage with two computers like we used to do with Armory before Trezor came out.

It is already possible to do cold storage signing of transactions with monero-wallet-cli AND the new GUI beta 2. However this is a new feature and there is little to no documentation on how to do so, apart from some guides on monero stackexchange. I'll see if I can put a quick guide together over the weekend (for GUI. anyone motivated enough to use cli these days should be able to figure it out).

Hey thanks! That would be great. I have been playing around with the GUI beta 2 and have not been able to figure out the right procedure for cold storage.

Here you go.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg18896526#msg18896526

[Nathan047]

Any idea when the hardware for a wallet will be available?

I don’t think (at least as far as I am aware of) that there is a hardware wallet in the making for Monero. I do think it would be nice to have a hardware or light wallet available, perhaps sometime soon we’ll see one.

[Rhosadah]

This may be a dumb question, but I'm genuinely curious why people put up huge ask/bid orders far beyond where the price will likely go in the near future. For example, the 18,000 XMR sell order at 0.008 on poloniex. Beyond the obvious reasons, what are they hoping to accomplish?

The most obvious explanation tends to be the right one.

They may speculate and profit from the offerings in the poloniex market

[KeyJockey]

does anyone have a new meme to celebrate this joyous occasion ?

LOL this one for me just never gets old...

[Hueristic]

does anyone have a new meme to celebrate this joyous occasion ?

LOL this one for me just never gets old...

Or this one!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHg8qIKJo1I

[aminorex]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.  Strangely, all of my evidence-based estimators of XMR f.m.v. indicate that even the current unexpectedly high clearing price is undervaluing XMR.  My newly calibrated f.m.v. estimate is 32usd.  Probably it will take a while to catch up to that, however, since some sort of profit-taking cycle should usually occur after a run-up.

Perhaps the strongest pessimistic counter-argument in my head at the moment is "sell in May": In a broad asset deflation, everything gets sold, and given current ratios in U.S. equities (valuation and leverage), any summer slump could easily become a contagious rout.  But if crypto really is becoming a diversification asset (even in a very small but still meaningful relative to BTC market cap way) that pessimistic argument will fail dramatically.

Anyhow, I am not comfortable reducing exposure here, despite the recent run-up.  Usually, after a run-up, I would just shut up (to avoid my loose lips harming people who might sell too much, and miss out on longer-term gains), and would go more into btc with my trading stock, but this time I think it is probably best to stay at the high end of my exposure range.  Not only market conditions, but also technical developments seem biased bullish in xmr, while btc seems to be enjoying undue complacency regarding scaling and governance problems.

[Hueristic]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.  Strangely, all of my evidence-based estimators of XMR f.m.v. indicate that even the current unexpectedly high clearing price is undervaluing XMR.  My newly calibrated f.m.v. estimate is 32usd.  Probably it will take a while to catch up to that, however, since some sort of profit-taking cycle should usually occur after a run-up.

Perhaps the strongest pessimistic counter-argument in my head at the moment is "sell in May": In a broad asset deflation, everything gets sold, and given current ratios in U.S. equities (valuation and leverage), any summer slump could easily become a contagious rout.  But if crypto really is becoming a diversification asset (even in a very small but still meaningful relative to BTC market cap way) that pessimistic argument will fail dramatically.

Anyhow, I am not comfortable reducing exposure here, despite the recent run-up.  Usually, after a run-up, I would just shut up (to avoid my loose lips harming people who might sell too much, and miss out on longer-term gains), and would go more into btc with my trading stock, but this time I think it is probably best to stay at the high end of my exposure range.  Not only market conditions, but also technical developments seem biased bullish in xmr, while btc seems to be enjoying undue complacency regarding scaling and governance problems.

Yet surprisingly bubbling, why?

[bitebits]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.

First great that you keep posting, don't feel responsible for other people's (financial) decisions. You are never right whatever you write. As a non-native English speaker I never have to use the dictionary as much as with your posts. They are great reads.

The quoted above I can't figure out though, how do these two facts link together? Do you mean the Bitcoin price is inflated because of Bitfinex' banking issues, and Monero being more connected to the XMR/BTC rate than the XMR/USD rate (causing the USD value of Monero to temporarily go up)?


Edit: Or is it the USD profits of the Bitfinex arbitrage opportunity flowing into Monero (via the still to them available Taiwan banks that would be)?

[aminorex]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.

First great that you keep posting, don't feel responsible for other people's (financial) decisions.

I have some evidence that my financial opinions have been overwhelmingly, but not uniformly, beneficial to those who considered them.  My concern and apology was focused more on the issues of character which I am still working through: Excessive interest in financial gain, a self-aggrandizing posture rooted in deep-seated shame - probably due to abandonment in childhood - and a willingness to bully the opposition.  I will post ever more cautiously, as a result.  I don't want to be the guy I see in my posting history, who is an arrogant egotistical greedy fool, no matter how superficially clever he might be on occasion.

The quoted above I can't figure out though, how do these two facts link together? Do you mean the Bitcoin price is inflated because of Bitfinex' banking issues, and Monero being more connected to the XMR/BTC rate than the XMR/USD rate (causing the USD value of Monero to temporarily go up)?

Precisely this, but I would not say 'temporarily'.  We saw the inflation of btcusd when mt.gox was allowing btc but not fiat withdrawals, although that case ended very differently because of the Potemkin trading and ultimately the insolvency of mt.gox - neither of which appear to apply to bfx. Here only the first of those events was played out, and it ended well, in arbitrage.  At first, I think bfx was holding xmr down, as xmr holders on bfx moved their funds to plx, and liquidated some fraction.  Later, the rising btcusd clearing was positive for xmrusd, negative for xmrbtc.  More recently, as btc upward pressure was reduced by the arbitrage coming into play, xmr enjoyed a bit of the slingshot effect associated with a btc trend rolling over.  The compelling question then becomes: what is the natural fourth act in such a drama?  Ordinarily I would say a profit-taking sell off should occur, but xmr seems far too closely held for that right now, going by the exchange numbers.

Edit: Or is it the USD profits of the Bitfinex arbitrage opportunity flowing into Monero (via the still to them available Taiwan banks that would be)?

I don't credit the arbitrageurs with that much intelligence and foresight.  Usually arbitrageurs are on the risk-averse end, and tend not to hold speculatively - albeit in this case we are talking about crypto-involved arbitrageurs, who are thus more likely to be aware of the merits of Monero, so it is not entirely out of the question - yet I would assume they are more inclined to stock btc if anything crypto.

Edit: corrected "potempkin" to "Potemkin"

[LennyCarl]

Lots of excellent posters in this thread, but aminorex, I think you take the cake. You kinda disappeared when I starting getting into this cryptostuff so I hadn't read many of your posts. You seem like a really good person.

I really enjoy checking this thread out to read all the insightful, funny, and interesting posts, on the daily.

Just wanted to say that. Go Monero!

P.S. Looked up "potemkin", lol.

edit:spelling

[Bee Cho Chen]

I think XMR should be worth AT LEAST $50. Should honestly be worth over $100

[owlcatz]

I think XMR should be worth AT LEAST $50. Should honestly be worth over $100

Just sit tight. It's coming. I will eat this post in 1 year if not.