[XMR] Monero Speculation

[CTTE]

So, we just added Bithumb which is huge and all it would take is for Coinbase to finally add it, then we would have a very easy on ramp for hundreds of millions of dollars to enter Monero, which would drive the marketcap to another level altogether. It would make sense that they would add it sometime after the "protocol update" otherwise known as a non-contentious hard fork, takes hold and the new GUI and mobile wallets are out and have proven themselves.

[MorrisBuy]

I'm afraid that now China, and after some other State, will begin to regulate cryptovalues. Obviously they will not do anything for the benefit of the people but all for the benefit of them, the State. They now have no control over anything ... surely there will be some state that will hurt and some State less but with taxes on taxes ... they will certainly not make crypto life easy. I just hope they let breathe the market for other few month before start tilting at windmills... which might lead to breaking legs to speculation or anyway the growth as we know it today.

The correction in price is overdue now. China and regulation is only the trigger. There will be more.

Prices of cryptos can fall by 80% in the next year or so, but it is just a natural cycle.It has happened before.

Aminorex / Rangedriver any thoughts on this chat?

Idiotic talk, we haven't even hit bubble stage if you check a chart in log scale. Wall Street money is coming, an etf will happen in 6 months... anyone who doesn't want to be watched will move to XMR

Certainly who owns Chinese projects coins like "NEO" will not be excited lately. Then I did not say that it will be the end of the world, surely I think it is an unexplored market, and I think all the hypotheses that we make will be exact or wrong only when they will happen. For the rest, I think the Monero have more gear than others. But no one can be certain that the benefit of anonymity is not a disadvantage in the future. As far as the current one, it is to be said that the cryptos are currently playing alone ... without legislation it is easy to climb suddenly. I hope that the ETFs will arrive at once and hope that important countries will begin to regulate the cryptovalutes with intelligence without getting hurt.

So...tenas monero

...and  the only certainty so far is that Tether in dumps and pumps will always be at $ 1

[sui_generis]

The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.

As an interesting side note, I follow some non-crypto trading communities, and the number of never crypto types who are changing their minds is growing by the day. It's incredible to observe.

[Majormax]

Certainly who owns Chinese projects coins like "NEO" will not be excited lately. Then I did not say that it will be the end of the world, surely I think it is an unexplored market, and I think all the hypotheses that we make will be exact or wrong only when they will happen. For the rest, I think the Monero have more gear than others. But no one can be certain that the benefit of anonymity is not a disadvantage in the future. As far as the current one, it is to be said that the cryptos are currently playing alone ... without legislation it is easy to climb suddenly. I hope that the ETFs will arrive at once and hope that important countries will begin to regulate the cryptovalutes with intelligence without getting hurt.

So...tenas monero

I agree with a lot of that.  I don't particularly want anonymity. I would rather have transparency and proper regulation, and many would agree, especially in the interests of security.

The main question is of trust in the various regulators and competing financial system actors.

[c789]

I don't get the recent FUD. I mean that literally, not as in "spam" as it has also come to mean.

Monero just put out a major release, there's a new android wallet with more on the way, m/n multisig is in the works, hardware wallets are in the works, Kovri is in the works, it keeps getting added to exhchanges, hash rate is increasing, redditt subscribers are increasing, more people are realizing that BTC isn't private and they're seeing the need for privacy...I'm sure I missed other metrics and events.

China has made news plenty of times before. The news is almost always worse than what actually plays out. And many other coins are simply overvalued so they need to come down. Most of them don't do anything or add value that isn't present in other coins, and/or their tech is terrible. I don't put BTC or XMR in that group. I still see them as undervalued, especially XMR.

But if the price goes down, thoughts on where the bottom might be would be nice so we can grab more before it goes back up.

[Hueristic]

Anyone notice how lately the XMR price as listed on www.monero.how has been notably higher on the two smallest exchanges...

Code:

USD/XMR EXCHANGES
		Price	24hr Volume (XMR)
Bitfinex	115.35	29,000
Bittrex		115.03	2,870
Kraken		116.58	2,544
Livecoin	121.81	261
Exmo		120.70	232

...usually these kind of arbitrage opportunities don't last more than a few minutes: this seems to have been persistent a few days since I noticed it.

Anyone lately try to arb from Livecoin/Exmo to Bittrex/Kraken, or what's the deal here? What's the catch? Some kind of hidden fee or something?

Counterparty risk. How much money are you going to trust with Livecoin or Exmo?

Exactly my thoughts as well. I considered sending a small amount and grabbing those and converting it to some shit coin just to take a gamble but i'm still in a short that I want to keep open. If it's still like that next week then I'll do it.

I'm afraid that now China, and after some other State, will begin to regulate cryptovalues. Obviously they will not do anything for the benefit of the people but all for the benefit of them, the State. They now have no control over anything ... surely there will be some state that will hurt and some State less but with taxes on taxes ... they will certainly not make crypto life easy. I just hope they let breathe the market for other few month before start tilting at windmills... which might lead to breaking legs to speculation or anyway the growth as we know it today.

The correction in price is overdue now. China and regulation is only the trigger. There will be more.

Prices of cryptos can fall by 80% in the next year or so, but it is just a natural cycle.It has happened before.

how to move around this time? keep hold? sell in part? sell off and buy back soon?

My experience with that is I have called BTC drop correctly a few times and have converted to fiat and rebought and it worked out gret until it didn't! I converted to fiat when XMR was 1.37 figuring I'd buy back in a month or 2 and I was correct but I had a bad run IRL and had to use those funds (850 xmr) and when it came time to rebuy I didn't have the funds available and was not able to re-enter and it was less than a week later that alpha bay hit out of the blue. So that is the Major issue you can run into. Things can happen over night. Also a problem doing this not is the fact that XMR is often tied to USD (it was much more so when the DM's were running) so even if btc tanks XMR will not reflect that as much as the other coins and has been known to rise with btc dip.

"I have been holding some Monero for some time, but i am a bit pessimistic about the future of this coin, especially
after the closure of the dark web marketplaces, i just can't see it taking off again."

Nice try at the soft troll but no-one believes a word of this, trying to accumulate?

[Majormax]

The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.

Hopefully you will be right. However, markets don't go up in a straight line, and chart patterns are fractal.

It's all probabilities, so take your positions and we will see !

[KeyJockey]

The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.

As an interesting side note, I follow some non-crypto trading communities, and the number of never crypto types who are changing their minds is growing by the day. It's incredible to observe.

This.  Absolutely.

Seems like a little more bear-ish sentiment around this thread than usual lately but that may be a good thing: keep our feet on the ground a bit more as it were.

However, and I'm far from being any sort of 'sage' like some folks here, I don't trade, I only HODL really: so nobody should pay any attention to whatever the fuck I think, LOL, but seems to me that despite not really wanting to ever say "this time is different", umm, heh... this time IS different!

Compared to bull/bear sentiment we've seen in the past, lately it just "feels" to me like it's stronger now. More widespread. More new blood finally starting to think that all this crazy shit all of us lunatic-fringe, pre-early-adopters have been harping on to our skeptical and resistant friends and family over the last 4-5-6 years, maybe it is *finally* starting to take hold, even just a little bit.

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

How many people have a very conservative friend who recently finally opened a coinbase account and put in even just a hundred bucks, to just START learning for themselves how all this stuff really works?

I've had BOTH of those things happen to me recently, in the last month or two, and if it's even slightly representative of what's happening overall in a macro scale of adoption, then we are only at the very start of a really significant hockey-stick curve ramp-up coming over the next year or two.

Could be wrong, though, of course... this is crypto, any damn weird thing can happen LOL -- but that's how it feels/looks to me

[c789]

...
How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

How many people have a very conservative friend who recently finally opened a coinbase account and put in even just a hundred bucks, to just START learning for themselves how all this stuff really works?

I've had BOTH of those things happen to me recently, in the last month or two, and if it's even slightly representative of what's happening overall in a macro scale of adoption, then we are only at the very start of a really significant hockey-stick curve ramp-up coming over the next year or two.

Could be wrong, though, of course... this is crypto, any damn weird thing can happen LOL -- but that's how it feels/looks to me

I've had 2 in the past month. Both are conservative financially, one very much so (debt-free, lives well below his means, etc.). If someone like him opened a coinbase account, that's a big deal.

[amaral1977]

...
How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

How many people have a very conservative friend who recently finally opened a coinbase account and put in even just a hundred bucks, to just START learning for themselves how all this stuff really works?

I've had BOTH of those things happen to me recently, in the last month or two, and if it's even slightly representative of what's happening overall in a macro scale of adoption, then we are only at the very start of a really significant hockey-stick curve ramp-up coming over the next year or two.

Could be wrong, though, of course... this is crypto, any damn weird thing can happen LOL -- but that's how it feels/looks to me

I've had 2 in the past month. Both are conservative financially, one very much so (debt-free, lives well below his means, etc.). If someone like him opened a coinbase account, that's a big deal.

Same here. after a lunch at a friends house. % days later i had a whatsapp message saying he spent 100 in coinbase. If the movements are anywhere near normal some of that BTC, LTC and ETH will flow to other alts. I did my part talking about monero...

[MorrisBuy]

I don't get the recent FUD. I mean that literally, not as in "spam" as it has also come to mean.

Monero just put out a major release, there's a new android wallet with more on the way, m/n multisig is in the works, hardware wallets are in the works, Kovri is in the works, it keeps getting added to exhchanges, hash rate is increasing, redditt subscribers are increasing, more people are realizing that BTC isn't private and they're seeing the need for privacy...I'm sure I missed other metrics and events.

China has made news plenty of times before. The news is almost always worse than what actually plays out. And many other coins are simply overvalued so they need to come down. Most of them don't do anything or add value that isn't present in other coins, and/or their tech is terrible. I don't put BTC or XMR in that group. I still see them as undervalued, especially XMR.

But if the price goes down, thoughts on where the bottom might be would be nice so we can grab more before it goes back up.

I agree with what you say. My perplexities are not on the monero or on the team behind, otherwise I would not have focused much on this currency; but I fear the (negative) externalities around the market. States are thieves. And where they can not put his hands then they say he is rotten ...

[Johnny Mnemonic]

The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.

As an interesting side note, I follow some non-crypto trading communities, and the number of never crypto types who are changing their minds is growing by the day. It's incredible to observe.

Times change but human behavior does not. How many folks in this thread were certain the Bithumb promotion would catapult XMR to new highs?

Moneran's shouldn't forget the great Mintpal pump of 2014, which resulted in an ATH that wasn't broken for two years.

The important point though is that the price record was reached before trading began at Mintpal. Perhaps this time is different?

I do think a crypto armageddon is coming, and I think 80% is an optimistic estimate (for a market cap loss for the entire sector). When the dust clears, only a few projects will remain. Of course we can only guess when it will happen, and to what degree it will affect XMR.

[kurious]

The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.

As an interesting side note, I follow some non-crypto trading communities, and the number of never crypto types who are changing their minds is growing by the day. It's incredible to observe.

Times change but human behavior does not. How many folks in this thread were certain the Bithumb promotion would catapult XMR to new highs?

Moneran's shouldn't forget the great Mintpal pump of 2014, which resulted in an ATH that wasn't broken for two years.

The important point though is that the price record was reached before trading began at Mintpal. Perhaps this time is different?

I do think a crypto armageddon is coming, and I think 80% is an optimistic estimate (for a market cap loss for the entire sector). When the dust clears, only a few projects will remain. Of course we can only guess when it will happen, and to what degree it will affect XMR.

80% is optimistic?  I agree a shakeout is inevitable, but an 80% drop across the board is not going to be a sudden thing. 80% of coins withering away is likely but only over time and a few will more than make up for the MC loss overall by being the ones wih real use cases. 

XMR will be one of them.

[adamantasaurus]

The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.

As an interesting side note, I follow some non-crypto trading communities, and the number of never crypto types who are changing their minds is growing by the day. It's incredible to observe.

Times change but human behavior does not. How many folks in this thread were certain the Bithumb promotion would catapult XMR to new highs?

Moneran's shouldn't forget the great Mintpal pump of 2014, which resulted in an ATH that wasn't broken for two years.

The important point though is that the price record was reached before trading began at Mintpal. Perhaps this time is different?

I do think a crypto armageddon is coming, and I think 80% is an optimistic estimate (for a market cap loss for the entire sector). When the dust clears, only a few projects will remain. Of course we can only guess when it will happen, and to what degree it will affect XMR.

Idk if there will be a correction I have a feeling that this is the beginning of the new age for crypto there is so much news so much awareness around it that it would seem "almost" impossible for it to crash again like we saw last time. Like a previous poster stated there is a 50% increase in the awareness of crypto the fact that, that alone caused the prices to jump to all time highs for the longest length of time we have seen I think maybe your just being pessimistic....

[mnemonicsoup]

The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.

As an interesting side note, I follow some non-crypto trading communities, and the number of never crypto types who are changing their minds is growing by the day. It's incredible to observe.

Times change but human behavior does not. How many folks in this thread were certain the Bithumb promotion would catapult XMR to new highs?

It did rise from around 50$ (always going down in terms of btc when btc rose) to around 120$. This was a catapult to new highs, no?

Moneran's shouldn't forget the great Mintpal pump of 2014, which resulted in an ATH that wasn't broken for two years.

The important point though is that the price record was reached before trading began at Mintpal. Perhaps this time is different?

I do think a crypto armageddon is coming, and I think 80% is an optimistic estimate (for a market cap loss for the entire sector). When the dust clears, only a few projects will remain. Of course we can only guess when it will happen, and to what degree it will affect XMR.

I don't think that this scenario has to happen (it could, of course) but it's just as likely that the market will keep growing for quite some time and a lot of useless or outdated cryptos will just silently fade away (like they already have been doing). If crypto just reaches a fraction of the importance the Crypto utopians predict than this market is still tiny. I think that a lot of the day traders here just view cryptocurrencies as a pump and dump vehicle for their personal short term gains and tend to miss the bigger picture, the fantastic revolution that cryptocurrencies are. (Not saying that you are part of that.)

Interesting is this pro con discussion in which the yale prof (who takes the con side) says that the term "bubble" is often misunderstood.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/3000651983

[Johnny Mnemonic]

80% is optimistic?  I agree a shakeout is inevitable, but an 80% drop across the board is not going to be a sudden thing. 80% of coins withering away is likely but only over time and a few will more than make up for the MC loss overall by being the ones wih real use cases. 

XMR will be one of them.

I suppose you could call the dot com crash a "shakeout" as well. How quickly did that happen?

Do you see the current "ICO fever" as something that's here to stay, or a point in cryptocurrency history that eventually comes to an end?

[johnalan]

80% is optimistic?  I agree a shakeout is inevitable, but an 80% drop across the board is not going to be a sudden thing. 80% of coins withering away is likely but only over time and a few will more than make up for the MC loss overall by being the ones wih real use cases. 

XMR will be one of them.

I suppose you could call the dot com crash a "shakeout" as well. How quickly did that happen?

Do you see the current "ICO fever" as something that's here to stay, or a point in cryptocurrency history that eventually comes to an end?

Defo it will end, but I don't think that means XMR is going to 25usd.

In fact I see it at 500usd+ in a year.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Defo it will end, but I don't think that means XMR is going to 25usd.

I'm betting it will survive. I don't necessarily think it will be unaffected.

[Raja_MBZ]

Monero & Ethereum, are currently both following bitcoin exactly like:

-if bitcoin goes up high, they both go very high.
-if bitcoin goes down, they both go very down.

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

How many people have a very conservative friend who recently finally opened a coinbase account and put in even just a hundred bucks, to just START learning for themselves how all this stuff really works?

Happened with me few times in last few weeks. One of them, back in 2015, when I told about bitcoin & decentralization, replied me back "You're too fool to trust something which is not even owned by any one, seems a very big scam to me", called me few days back and asked "Hey, do you still hold those bitcoins? I'd like to purchase some too!"

Crypto drama is really very funny & interesting.

[Majormax]

Monero & Ethereum, are currently both following bitcoin exactly like:

-if bitcoin goes up high, they both go very high.
-if bitcoin goes down, they both go very down.

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

How many people have a very conservative friend who recently finally opened a coinbase account and put in even just a hundred bucks, to just START learning for themselves how all this stuff really works?

Happened with me few times in last few weeks. One of them, back in 2015, when I told about bitcoin & decentralization, replied me back "You're too fool to trust something which is not even owned by any one, seems a very big scam to me", called me few days back and asked "Hey, do you still hold those bitcoins? I'd like to purchase some too!"

Crypto drama is really very funny & interesting.

It has changed indeed.. But is the conversion of so many skeptics a sign of future growth, or just a sign of a peak in price (hopefully not a permanent peak) ?

A true contrarian would see it as a warning sign.