[XMR] Monero Speculation

[SolarStorm]

Why do you think is gonna be another pump from tomorrow to Sunday?

The pump for bithumb list already came and the promotion (up to 100 xmr for top 50 traders) could be useless -> I think the big traders have enough money to dont get crazy to win those extra XMR and if so, maybe they are only interested in moving the price in the same range.

What do you think?

it's not about big traders
Big traders have just better option to jump in since public will be able to from Friday/Saturday

which gave them bit advantage to buy lower.

When general public will be able to buy XMR -> should (not necessarily will) be pump event as they might want to buy as soon as possible due to lower price.

Who knows, it's just guessing/speculating we all love.

i cannot find back the article where i saw it, but bithumb even has a storefront with desks. There seems to be tons of mom-and-pop-investors that throw their pension in bitcoin and alts.

[1715447815]

1715447815

[TheKubizz]

There is a little dip now... before a big bump tomorrow when korea will wake up ?

Yeah I am seriously thinking about throwing another few BTC at it now

Same here, 10% loss might be good opportunity...

[uNh0Ly]

Is anybody else also looking forward to this weekend? 

[luz3rrul3z]

Is anybody else also looking forward to this weekend? 

What would be the assumed price of XMR by the end of the year. I am seriously thinking long-term. Any loose prediction will do...
Thanks in advance.

[TheKubizz]

Is anybody else also looking forward to this weekend? 

Yeaaa might be a good weekend! Not sure if it will torpedo up that fast, we will see!

[bubulle]

I also think that there will be another great pump this week-end, as soon as xmr will be listed in bithumb.

[Febo]

Why do you think is gonna be another pump from tomorrow to Sunday?

The pump for bithumb list already came and the promotion (up to 100 xmr for top 50 traders) could be useless -> I think the big traders have enough money to dont get crazy to win those extra XMR and if so, maybe they are only interested in moving the price in the same range.

What do you think?

it's not about big traders
Big traders have just better option to jump in since public will be able to from Friday/Saturday

which gave them bit advantage to buy lower.

When general public will be able to buy XMR -> should (not necessarily will) be pump event as they might want to buy as soon as possible due to lower price.

Who knows, it's just guessing/speculating we all love.

i cannot find back the article where i saw it, but bithumb even has a storefront with desks. There seems to be tons of mom-and-pop-investors that throw their pension in bitcoin and alts.

If they would be  a shitty exchange then they would not try hard to get liquidity for new coin added by offering 1% to all XMR deposits and rewards for TOP traders.   All that just show how serious they take their bushiness.  And I am not worried there will be low volume. Most likely bithumb will be Monero second biggest volume exchange.

[smooth]

Source?

[smooth]

If they would be  a shitty exchange then they would not try hard to get liquidity for new coin added by offering 1% to all XMR deposits and rewards for TOP traders.   All that just show how serious they take their bushiness.  And I am not worried there will be low volume. Most likely bithumb will be Monero second biggest volume exchange.

Bitthumb is currently the highest volume crypto exchange in the world

https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

(Ignore fake nonsense currently listed above it) EDIT: no longer there

[CaptainJack]

https://i.imgur.com/MwAI2eT.png

Source?

Coindesk Poll

[aminorex]

What would be the assumed price of XMR by the end of the year. I am seriously thinking long-term. Any loose prediction will do...
Thanks in advance.

DNMs volumes should approach 0.1% of the global black markets by the end of 2018, I.e. roughly 25bn$/an.  In mid-2013 SR1 was turning over about $1bn/an.  Since no major DNM can risk BTC, ZEC, or ETH in the future, the only coin with the liquidity to support DNMs will be XMR.  Since pq=mv, and pq and m are known (estimated) factors, that leaves v.  If the velocity of XMR is roughly the same as SR1 era BTC, then at the end of 2018 XMR would trade at roughly 2500 $us, averaging over any periods of excess volatility.  I prefer to assume that either half of the DNMs are honeypots using BTC or ZEC, or that the velocity of XMR is more than twice the velocity of BTC in the SR1 era, in which case $1000 would be a better estimate.

Rational discounting in a negative real interest rate environment isn't very...relevant; thus, the only discounting factor is risk of model error. 

[Billy Bunter]

What would be the assumed price of XMR by the end of the year. I am seriously thinking long-term. Any loose prediction will do...
Thanks in advance.

DNMs volumes should approach 0.1% of the global black markets by the end of 2018, I.e. roughly 25bn$/an.  In mid-2013 SR1 was turning over about $1bn/an.  Since no major DNM can risk BTC, ZEC, or ETH in the future, the only coin with the liquidity to support DNMs will be XMR.  Since pq=mv, and pq and m are known (estimated) factors, that leaves v.  If the velocity of XMR is roughly the same as SR1 era BTC, then at the end of 2018 XMR would trade at roughly 2500 $us, averaging over any periods of excess volatility.  I prefer to assume that either half of the DNMs are honeypots using BTC or ZEC, or that the velocity of XMR is more than twice the velocity of BTC in the SR1 era, in which case $1000 would be a better estimate.

Rational discounting in a negative real interest rate environment isn't very...relevant; thus, the only discounting factor is risk of model error. 

End of 2017 or 2018? Your response is unclear since the OP was referring to 2017.

[owlcatz]

[CryptoPH]

Is anybody else also looking forward to this weekend? 

What would be the assumed price of XMR by the end of the year. I am seriously thinking long-term. Any loose prediction will do...
Thanks in advance.

Early this year, we've seen $50-$100 as target EoY. We already touched those prices.

[c789]

Source?

Coindesk Poll

Coindesk has around 10 polls which seem to appear randomly when you visit each page. I had to view 4 pages before that poll appeared.

[krizniq]

https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/6vkqin/has_the_first_event_started_on_bithumb_yet/

probably there will be some delay.
Anybody having bithumb account to check?

[wojak]

This one is also interesting:
https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/6vrfyw/bithumb_monero_update/

(but IDK if it is rumor or real, it may be "antihype" to lower price and accumulate)

But also, what I understood, XMR is going to India this week?

[krizniq]

we will see in 4days if this was true or not.... but as exchanges are most probably the biggest shitholes of cryptoworld, there is possibility that's true

[Billy Bunter]

I have little doubt it's true.

This is Monero, right? If there's bad luck to be had, we'll find it.

[aminorex]

What would be the assumed price of XMR by the end of the year. I am seriously thinking long-term. Any loose prediction will do...
Thanks in advance.

DNMs volumes should approach 0.1% of the global black markets by the end of 2018, I.e. roughly 25bn$/an.  In mid-2013 SR1 was turning over about $1bn/an.  Since no major DNM can risk BTC, ZEC, or ETH in the future, the only coin with the liquidity to support DNMs will be XMR.  Since pq=mv, and pq and m are known (estimated) factors, that leaves v.  If the velocity of XMR is roughly the same as SR1 era BTC, then at the end of 2018 XMR would trade at roughly 2500 $us, averaging over any periods of excess volatility.  I prefer to assume that either half of the DNMs are honeypots using BTC or ZEC, or that the velocity of XMR is more than twice the velocity of BTC in the SR1 era, in which case $1000 would be a better estimate.

Rational discounting in a negative real interest rate environment isn't very...relevant; thus, the only discounting factor is risk of model error.  

End of 2017 or 2018? Your response is unclear since the OP was referring to 2017.

I was talking about 2018 because I don't think any DNM can build the kind of confidence that AB or SR1 had in 4 months.  I could be wrong: DHL seems to have all the confidence required, but they have not shown a willingness to open up the floodgates for a large flow of goods and services - AFAIK it is all invite-only.

To me the model prediction seems inescapable, and the only question is how long it takes for SEC to prosecute a few ETH ICOs in order too drive a lot of speculative capital out of BTC, BCH, ETH into real digital cash.

Either way, the money flows are coming.  Since I don't know when, I just stay all-in XMR.  We do know this:. When BTC reached thus liquidity level it drew attention from buy-siders.  Expect the same for XMR at this level.