[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Nathan047]

man... I wish I had found this one earlier

got only few moneros, but I will hodl them!

Same here, I sold a lot of my Monero at 60$ and didn’t really buy all that much back.

Although I don’t have too much for regrets, the all the coins I invested that money into went up to some extent (mainly Bitcoin); and I am really not one for holding a coin for more then like 9 months – the only true hodling I do is Bitcoin.

[1714166380]

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[1714166380]

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[1714166380]

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[johnalan]

We aren't in a bubble. This is the price discovery phase for the 6th Generation of money (post plastic), true crypto has been recognised for it's disruptive power.

Do you really think that such a technology as I've described will stay long with a market cap 1/100th the size of metals? I don't.

Yes.  I would add: Bubble is subjective.  It's made of bubbles.  Bubbles all the way down.  When the panic comes, everyone will say, oh that was a bubble.  In fact the panic is equally a mispricing, but the doomsayers will consider it their (fleeting) vindication. There is a well understood fundamental attractor for price (Fisher's law), but it is only partially observable in the market, and there are quasicyclical factors as well (technically, "quasiperiodic on time scales", some of which may be predictable given sufficient observation, and a low model error - but that is an awful lot of hard work).  

Whenever the price moves there are winners and losers, support and resistance.   The price will have to move a LOT in order to achieve fundamental value over the coming years.  So there will be BIG winners and losers.  So there will be a LOT of resistance and support.  It will be painful for everyone.  Too much drama for my taste, certainly. But, the holders will be the winners after the smoke clears.  That's where I want to be sitting.

Suppose the "end point" (your investment horizon) has XMR denominating 1% of JUST the global black markets. (Although in reality it is more likely to be 10%, and another 2% of the "regulated" market besides.). You all know the numbers by now.  In order to reach even 20kUSD it has to go through all the levels between here and there.  That's a vast battlefield.  It will not be crossed without much blood.  Call me a coward but I do not want to bleed.  I will mostly just sit on the side, and hold.  Maybe pick a dead man's pocket or two when the action is far away, or the blood is deep in the streets.

The brute, incontestible fact is that Monero has a growing share of a growing sector (crypto).  It is going to do fantastically well over the long haul.  It has already done so, when the future was relatively dark.  Now that it  has enough cap to make technical development much easier to support, the future is brilliant, and one day the market will suddenly price that in.  I want to be holding on that day.  And indeed, to pass my (unknowable, inalienable) wealth to my heirs, if I can't find a better use for it in my lifetime. BTC on the other hand, has a declining share of that growing sector.  It may do very well, but not so well as XMR.

Whenever someone tries to pry your fingers apart with FUD, remember the facts, remember the logic, remember that markets rise by climbing a "wall of worry", and hold.  It is a scary rip tide, but it is a rising tide.  Stay in the fracking boat!

Poetry.

[Billy Bunter]

Probably low quality, but for what it is worth,  "First Crypto ETF" to hold XMR https://themerkle.com/first-crypto-etf-launches-a-pre-ico-guarantees-to-buyback-tokens/

Further institutional investment notwithstanding, I have high hopes for Globee. In much the same way that the market reacted to the Monero/Alphabay news, I think it will do the same when Globee announces its partnerships. Real markets with real products  and real currency use within those markets is a rare phenomenon within Crypto, though something that they all (purportedly) aspire to.

Very bullish in my opinion.

[Febo]

2391 people searched advice's about Monroe on Monero Stack Exchange. Never before this many as yesterday. This is what matters right now and this is what Monero needs. Not just people to use it, but to understand it better.


If you dont know something go there and look: https://monero.stackexchange.com/

A funny thing. Only 4 months latter and  casual 40% increase. I dont think today is something really special with high daily activity.

[KiXiNiT]

We aren't in a bubble. This is the price discovery phase for the 6th Generation of money (post plastic), true crypto has been recognised for it's disruptive power.

Do you really think that such a technology as I've described will stay long with a market cap 1/100th the size of metals? I don't.

Yes.  I would add: Bubble is subjective.  It's made of bubbles.  Bubbles all the way down.  When the panic comes, everyone will say, oh that was a bubble.  In fact the panic is equally a mispricing, but the doomsayers will consider it their (fleeting) vindication. There is a well understood fundamental attractor for price (Fisher's law), but it is only partially observable in the market, and there are quasicyclical factors as well (technically, "quasiperiodic on time scales", some of which may be predictable given sufficient observation, and a low model error - but that is an awful lot of hard work).  

Whenever the price moves there are winners and losers, support and resistance.   The price will have to move a LOT in order to achieve fundamental value over the coming years.  So there will be BIG winners and losers.  So there will be a LOT of resistance and support.  It will be painful for everyone.  Too much drama for my taste, certainly. But, the holders will be the winners after the smoke clears.  That's where I want to be sitting.

Suppose the "end point" (your investment horizon) has XMR denominating 1% of JUST the global black markets. (Although in reality it is more likely to be 10%, and another 2% of the "regulated" market besides.). You all know the numbers by now.  In order to reach even 20kUSD it has to go through all the levels between here and there.  That's a vast battlefield.  It will not be crossed without much blood.  Call me a coward but I do not want to bleed.  I will mostly just sit on the side, and hold.  Maybe pick a dead man's pocket or two when the action is far away, or the blood is deep in the streets.

The brute, incontestible fact is that Monero has a growing share of a growing sector (crypto).  It is going to do fantastically well over the long haul.  It has already done so, when the future was relatively dark.  Now that it  has enough cap to make technical development much easier to support, the future is brilliant, and one day the market will suddenly price that in.  I want to be holding on that day.  And indeed, to pass my (unknowable, inalienable) wealth to my heirs, if I can't find a better use for it in my lifetime. BTC on the other hand, has a declining share of that growing sector.  It may do very well, but not so well as XMR.

Whenever someone tries to pry your fingers apart with FUD, remember the facts, remember the logic, remember that markets rise by climbing a "wall of worry", and hold.  It is a scary rip tide, but it is a rising tide.  Stay in the fracking boat!

lol..

[KeyJockey]

It is a scary rip tide, but it is a rising tide.  Stay in the fracking boat!

Well, I'm still in the boat, but... dammit, of all the bad luck!

All of my crypto stored on paper wallets (that I brought with me out here on the lake, for 'safe keeping' don't ya know) blew overboard and floated away 

[cAPSLOCK]

It is a scary rip tide, but it is a rising tide.  Stay in the fracking boat!

Well, I'm still in the boat, but... dammit, of all the bad luck!

All of my crypto stored on paper wallets (that I brought with me out here on the lake, for 'safe keeping' don't ya know) blew overboard and floated away 

You know...  We lovers of Montero are a lot of things... but good sailors?  We are not. 

I do believe nearly all the monero coinbase has been lost at sea by this point.

[Anon136]

It is a scary rip tide, but it is a rising tide.  Stay in the fracking boat!

Well, I'm still in the boat, but... dammit, of all the bad luck!

All of my crypto stored on paper wallets (that I brought with me out here on the lake, for 'safe keeping' don't ya know) blew overboard and floated away  

We've all been in that boat.

[alexholden]

You aren't hearing much about Monero but here and there it has some big price spikes and then cooldowns... weird coin but must have in all wallets.

[Anon136]

You aren't hearing much about Monero but here and there it has some big price spikes and then cooldowns... weird coin but must have in all wallets.

We don't really market. We like to hope that the technology speaks for its self and that any funds that would have been used for marketing be used for development instead.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

You know...  We lovers of Montero are a lot of things... but good sailors?  We are not.  

I do believe nearly all the monero coinbase has been lost at sea by this point.

Good thing for that tail emission, otherwise we'd be sunk! (sorry, couldn't resist)

[Billy Bunter]

You know...  We lovers of Montero are a lot of things... but good sailors?  We are not.  

I do believe nearly all the monero coinbase has been lost at sea by this point.

Good thing for that tail emission, otherwise we'd be sunk! (sorry, couldn't resist)

Still sticking to your price-doubling-in-two-weeks forecast?

[harve]

You aren't hearing much about Monero but here and there it has some big price spikes and then cooldowns... weird coin but must have in all wallets.

We don't really market. We like to hope that the technology speaks for its self and that any funds that would have been used for marketing be used for development instead.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

[Johnny Mnemonic]

You know...  We lovers of Montero are a lot of things... but good sailors?  We are not.  

I do believe nearly all the monero coinbase has been lost at sea by this point.

Good thing for that tail emission, otherwise we'd be sunk! (sorry, couldn't resist)

Still sticking to your price-doubling-in-two-weeks forecast?

Yes sir. Fair warning though: I'm wrong pretty much always.

[Billy Bunter]

You know...  We lovers of Montero are a lot of things... but good sailors?  We are not.  

I do believe nearly all the monero coinbase has been lost at sea by this point.

Good thing for that tail emission, otherwise we'd be sunk! (sorry, couldn't resist)

Still sticking to your price-doubling-in-two-weeks forecast?

Yes sir. Fair warning though: I'm wrong pretty much always.

Well, aren't we all?

It's just that I recall you saying recently that the major leaps in Monero's price have always (mostly?) been due to external factors (Alphabay etc). I was assuming that you knew of some imminent event that would propel the price upwards. Oh well, I guess not.

[johnsmithx]

Yes.  I would add: Bubble is subjective.  It's made of bubbles.  Bubbles all the way down.

What happened to the turtles?

[tokeweed]

Shouldn't we be buying Aeon too?  It could be a time machine of Monero circa 2015.  I heard Smooth already released the update prompting Bittrex to turn Aeon deposits online once again.  

If there's a 100x'er, it would probably be that.  What do you guys think?

[adam1230]

Shouldn't we be buying Aeon too?  It could be a time machine of Monero circa 2015.  I heard Smooth already released the update prompting Bittrex to turn Aeon deposits online once again.  

If there's a 100x'er, it would probably be that.  What do you guys think?

I agree for Aeon. We should buy aeon but not much. I will buy for my %5 of my budget. It has a nice opportunity. Bittrex deposits may rocket Aeon. Its a good risk-reward ratio

[monica69]

For every one good ICO, there are easily 20+ that are just there to ultimately steal money. It's just what's historically happened, and I'm not a big fan of anyone that wants my money.More importantly are the questions - will the money that was in the ICO business-startup funding market find its way to a new one now? Or will the combination of the afflicted be looking to diversify outside of crypto? I will mostly just sit on the side, and hold.  Maybe pick a dead man's pocket or two when the action is far away, or the blood is deep in the streets.
Or will this be like cutting the head off a hydra, ultimately proving the legislation to be ineffective?

[ozkraut]

You aren't hearing much about Monero but here and there it has some big price spikes and then cooldowns... weird coin but must have in all wallets.

We don't really market. We like to hope that the technology speaks for its self and that any funds that would have been used for marketing be used for development instead.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

that about sums it up.