[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Johnny Mnemonic]

So I'm curious how everyone views BTC, XMR, etc. correlating with the global economy... For some reason it seems to be following the DOW at least.  To me it seems to make sense... the more people are feeling confident in the economy, people tend to be willing to throw their money around and into investments, and therefore cryptos (because people view cryptocurrencies as 'risky' investments).

Does anyone here have any money in the market?  Also am I the only one who hopes the market explodes, even though I do have a 401(k) I'm throwing money at?

I am not really sure what you mean by explodes. I speculate you mean here a next crysis and all stock markets drastically fall and governments again need to bail out banks.


I think when that happen, crypto will suffer the same. Actually will suffer much more. But in Crypto language (10% daily drops and raise) it will be same as old economy. But then when crysiss will come to its peak and politicians will start argue how to get out of it best suddenly  crypto will look to part of political spectre and part of population best option to continue long term.

you don't think when stocks, bonds & real estate are all crashing that crypto would go up?
a sort of "safe haven" if it were.

I dont, because it will be panic. Everything will go down together same as went up together in 2017. No safe heaven. People will try to cash out anything. Even Gold will not go up when crysisi start but only at peak of crysis, a year or two latter.

I'm not so sure. The on/off-ramps to crypto (especially alts) are not as easily accessible and thus less susceptible to panics in the broader markets. Cryptos still remain very much on the fringe in spite of their recent publicity.

[denetci]

I think that both communism and capitalism are centralized systems. Monero war against ASIC is about freedom. Freedom is about decentralized power, where each individual control a small part of the system. i support Monero war against ASIC.

[uletkluget]

Self-moderated thread for discussion of Monero trading and price speculation.

Off topic posts will be removed. Off topic includes any extensive discussion of other coins, promoting other coins, or posting of promotional materials from other coins.

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People speculating on Monero may also be interested in the MoneroMarkets subreddit (unaffiliated)

Thanks for opening a new speculation thread. I'm not a huge fan of self moderated threads, as they tend to invite abuse of power of the thread starter in my experience. That said, not wanting to give in to FUD posts/trolling is a valid reason for self moderation, so I'm not outright going to bash the attempt.
When the price is going up people tend to pull their ask in anticipation of a better price to sell at. When the price is dropping people tend to pull their bids in anticipation of a lower price to buy at. At the same time in a falling market a lot of people wants to sell and places sell walls hoping to get out at a better price, and vice-versa.
Also, if someone is in the process of accumulation, he often masks his intention with having the bought coins in asks, trying to cap the price. Similarly a seller would use bid walls to try to keep price higher while he is unloading. I have tried these techniques in a liquid market (Bitstamp BTC/USD) and in a short term (a few hours) and medium trade size (100-200 BTC), they lead to an average 0.45% better execution than not employing them. That is only possible for medium+ traders who have the required funds to put up walls, and only for medium- trade sizes, because large trades affect the market nevertheless and the strategy becomes evident to an observer, if there is simultaneous buy pressure and sell walls. It may be +EV still, though, as I see it being used in Bitstamp often now.

[tokeweed]

So I'm curious how everyone views BTC, XMR, etc. correlating with the global economy... For some reason it seems to be following the DOW at least.  To me it seems to make sense... the more people are feeling confident in the economy, people tend to be willing to throw their money around and into investments, and therefore cryptos (because people view cryptocurrencies as 'risky' investments).

Does anyone here have any money in the market?  Also am I the only one who hopes the market explodes, even though I do have a 401(k) I'm throwing money at?

I am not really sure what you mean by explodes. I speculate you mean here a next crysis and all stock markets drastically fall and governments again need to bail out banks.


I think when that happen, crypto will suffer the same. Actually will suffer much more. But in Crypto language (10% daily drops and raise) it will be same as old economy. But then when crysiss will come to its peak and politicians will start argue how to get out of it best suddenly  crypto will look to part of political spectre and part of population best option to continue long term.

you don't think when stocks, bonds & real estate are all crashing that crypto would go up?
a sort of "safe haven" if it were.

I dont, because it will be panic. Everything will go down together same as went up together in 2017. No safe heaven. People will try to cash out anything. Even Gold will not go up when crysisi start but only at peak of crysis, a year or two latter.

I'm not so sure. The on/off-ramps to crypto (especially alts) are not as easily accessible and thus less susceptible to panics in the broader markets. Cryptos still remain very much on the fringe in spite of their recent publicity.

Actually it kinda is susceptible to panic and hype.  Most people holding cryptos (especially alts) are your typical smart, technical, nerdy computer guys who don't have much experience in trading.  Basically people who aren't trained and don't trade the markets professionaly.

[Febo]

So I'm curious how everyone views BTC, XMR, etc. correlating with the global economy... For some reason it seems to be following the DOW at least.  To me it seems to make sense... the more people are feeling confident in the economy, people tend to be willing to throw their money around and into investments, and therefore cryptos (because people view cryptocurrencies as 'risky' investments).

Does anyone here have any money in the market?  Also am I the only one who hopes the market explodes, even though I do have a 401(k) I'm throwing money at?

I am not really sure what you mean by explodes. I speculate you mean here a next crysis and all stock markets drastically fall and governments again need to bail out banks.


I think when that happen, crypto will suffer the same. Actually will suffer much more. But in Crypto language (10% daily drops and raise) it will be same as old economy. But then when crysiss will come to its peak and politicians will start argue how to get out of it best suddenly  crypto will look to part of political spectre and part of population best option to continue long term.

you don't think when stocks, bonds & real estate are all crashing that crypto would go up?
a sort of "safe haven" if it were.

I dont, because it will be panic. Everything will go down together same as went up together in 2017. No safe heaven. People will try to cash out anything. Even Gold will not go up when crysisi start but only at peak of crysis, a year or two latter.

I'm not so sure. The on/off-ramps to crypto (especially alts) are not as easily accessible and thus less susceptible to panics in the broader markets. Cryptos still remain very much on the fringe in spite of their recent publicity.

It is hard to talk about future. Only two years ago I would have totally different opinion. But things escalated exponentially. And hype that happened in 2017 will give results only this and next year. Because things are not done overnight and new people that joined with new ideas will slowly started contributing to crypto economy.  Unless this financial crisis happens tomorrow we will will see on/off-ramps to crypto (especially alts) much more easily accessible in the future. So we dont really know what will happen two years from now. But maybe you are right, because they will need to sell crypto and not buy.  Where I live you can buy  Bitcoin on any gas station for over a year, but to sell it for cash you have only few two way ATMs.

[johnalan]

I'm a permabull, but starting to feel like an ATH again this year is unlikely. (in BTC or fiat terms).

Painful market right now...

[rinus]

I'm a permabull, but starting to feel like an ATH again this year is unlikely. (in BTC or fiat terms).

Painful market right now...

i have the exact same feeling. Long time HODLer and i wanted to sell some at 1000 usd , i dont know if i should be realistic and sell some at a lower usd rate
or just wait . But i dont have the feeling we will go higher then 500. I expect a lot of Bulletproofs ... thats just huge , but with the comming hardfork and ledger
integration, the price does not really move up ...

[Nathan047]

I think that both communism and capitalism are centralized systems. Monero war against ASIC is about freedom. Freedom is about decentralized power, where each individual control a small part of the system. i support Monero war against ASIC.

Isn't democracy as far from centralized as you can get a government? Besides, any crypto's nodes resemble democracy (including Monero).

[Anon136]

0.12.0.0 binaries released! https://github.com/monero-project/monero/releases

[Hueristic]

I'm not so sure. The on/off-ramps to crypto (especially alts) are not as easily accessible and thus less susceptible to panics in the broader markets. Cryptos still remain very much on the fringe in spite of their recent publicity.

Good point with all this KYC there is alot of "Stuck" capitol in crypto now.

[Anon136]

I think that both communism and capitalism are centralized systems.

Capitalism is about individuals owning the product of their labor and being free to exchange that product for private property which they can then also own. That's a pretty decentralized system.

[Hueristic]

I think that both communism and capitalism are centralized systems.

Capitalism is about individuals owning the product of their labor and being free to exchange that product for private property which they can then also own. That's a pretty decentralized system.

But it is also about nepotism and passing that capitol onto descendants while blocking other from gaining the advantage the initial capitol holders enjoyed. So really lets be real, no system is even close to perfect as long as humans are in control.

[Anon136]

I think that both communism and capitalism are centralized systems.

Capitalism is about individuals owning the product of their labor and being free to exchange that product for private property which they can then also own. That's a pretty decentralized system.

But it is also about nepotism and passing that capitol onto descendants while blocking other from gaining the advantage the initial capitol holders enjoyed. So really lets be real, no system is even close to perfect as long as humans are in control.

You make it sound like it just poofs out of thin air. Someone has to make capital. Those people have to take a risk. A huge portion of the time attempting to produce capital ends up being a net loss. Part of the reason people take that risk is for the promise of passing it onto their children if it turns out to be a successful endeavor. If it does end up being successful than the capitalists descendants are groomed for the life of managing capital. And the effective management of capital is something that benefits everyone in a society. And anyway if the children are not successful at capital management than they do not pass any capital onto their own children. Which is usually the case, rags to riches then back to rags in three generations.

So I mean of course it's not perfectly decentralized. But that wouldn't be ideal anyway since different people have different skills and you want more capital in the hands of those who are the best at managing capital.

[elrippos friend]

Waiting for mid of April 

[Hueristic]

You make it sound like it just poofs out of thin air. Someone has to make capital. Those people have to take a risk. ...

I take it back, give my regards to Paris Hilton.

[ikanunaki]

An Empirical Analysis of Traceability in the Monero Blockchain

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1704.04299/

very elaborate, like the search for the planet x that is supposed to be by its gravitational trail, but nobody has found it.

[uDwcHYO]

when the coin is in the top, it usually goes along with the market

[dEBRUYNE]

An Empirical Analysis of Traceability in the Monero Blockchain

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1704.04299/

very elaborate, like the search for the planet x that is supposed to be by its gravitational trail, but nobody has found it.

See:

https://getmonero.org/2017/04/19/an-unofficial-response-to-an-empirical-analysis-of-linkability.html

[dEBRUYNE]

General information regarding the upcoming scheduled network upgrade and a call for community action

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/87r8fk/general_information_regarding_the_upcoming/

[Febo]

I'm a permabull, but starting to feel like an ATH again this year is unlikely. (in BTC or fiat terms).

Painful market right now...

i have the exact same feeling. Long time HODLer and i wanted to sell some at 1000 usd , i dont know if i should be realistic and sell some at a lower usd rate
or just wait . But i dont have the feeling we will go higher then 500. I expect a lot of Bulletproofs ... thats just huge , but with the comming hardfork and ledger
integration, the price does not really move up ...

It is hard to predict what will happen with price half year from now. Can be new ATH or not.

Bulletproofs will not do much on short term, their main impact will be to slow down increasing of the blockchain size. So they will have impact in years to come.

Updates in this upgrade are huge. Most important is probably multisig support.

Some highlights of this major release are:

tweaked PoW to block DoS attacks from ASICs
added input ordering to prevent wallet inference
increased minimum ring size from 5 to 7
subaddress support added, with addresses starting with a prefix of 8
added multisig support
added support for SunOS / Solaris
initial support for Ledger Nano S hardware wallet
added seed encryption by password
securely erase keys from memory, for most cases, when no longer in use
initial Bulletproofs implementation live on testnet
added accounts, tags, and labels, via subaddresses
added initial, quite rough support for 0MQ
added some mitigations for privacy-threatening key reusing forks
added a new network, stagenet, which mirrors mainnet's features
added SSL support for light wallet API
added CORS support to the RPC stack
added a --generate-from-spend-key flag to the CLI wallet
added a --disable-dns-checkpoints flag to the daemon
massive improvements to build hardening
added native fuzz testing for user input
added the ability to limit inbound connections
enabled "fluffy blocks" by default
added a --max-txpool-size mempool size limit flag
allow a remote node to temporarily process RPC requests during IBD
added a relay_tx command to the RPC wallet
allow for spend key retrieval via RPC wallet call
made libraries use position independent code
improvements made to Docker image
added a sweep_single command to the CLI wallet
made RPC error codes more specific
improved stack trace printing, and noted stack trace lib in output
split and refactored wallet_api from wallet code
added priority arguments to sweep_all and donate CLI wallet commands
added a --do-not-relay option to the CLI wallet
made the hashchain unit tests work again
added tests for subaddress expansion
added RingCT performance tests
added package installation instructions for Void Linux
made changes to ensure no sensitive data is logged accidentally
added a Croatian mnemonic word list
added a Lojban mnemonic word list
added a Swedish CLI translation
added stoffu's GPG key to the source code
added an timeoue for connections which don't complete a handshake
moved test building to the end of the CMake build process
as always, loads of bug fixes and performance improvements