[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

The NSA Worked to “Track Down” Bitcoin Users, Snowden Documents Reveal

Crypto has ruined my trust of journalism in general--I imagine there are a thousand hacks like Green who are using their academic status to pawn the general public into their rightness of opinion. Maybe it's for the best, but I somewhat enjoyed my trust of experts as it saved me a ton on fact checking and critical analysis.

Green also used it as a pulpit to tout zcash.  Clearly he is pretty motivated to sensationalize this rehash of 2013 btct topics.

Then again, so am I.

[Hueristic]

The NSA Worked to “Track Down” Bitcoin Users, Snowden Documents Reveal

Crypto has ruined my trust of journalism in general--I imagine there are a thousand hacks like Green who are using their academic status to pawn the general public into their rightness of opinion. Maybe it's for the best, but I somewhat enjoyed my trust of experts as it saved me a ton on fact checking and critical analysis.

Green also used it as a pulpit to tout zcash.  Clearly he is pretty motivated to sensationalize this rehash of 2013 btct topics.

Then again, so am I.

I can't remember the original, but with my memory it's no surprise, you got a link?

[cAPSLOCK]

I call these the Jihan dumps.  They are sure lot's of fun.

[Globb0]

The NSA Worked to “Track Down” Bitcoin Users, Snowden Documents Reveal

Crypto has ruined my trust of journalism in general--I imagine there are a thousand hacks like Green who are using their academic status to pawn the general public into their rightness of opinion. Maybe it's for the best, but I somewhat enjoyed my trust of experts as it saved me a ton on fact checking and critical analysis.

Yeah, agree. Like everything else, knowing is like opening the box. Then you see it everywhere else.

Similar experience from learning a load of NLP and related stuff at some point a lot of things become exposed that you cant un notice anymore.

[ozkraut]

The NSA Worked to “Track Down” Bitcoin Users, Snowden Documents Reveal

Crypto has ruined my trust of journalism in general--I imagine there are a thousand hacks like Green who are using their academic status to pawn the general public into their rightness of opinion. Maybe it's for the best, but I somewhat enjoyed my trust of experts as it saved me a ton on fact checking and critical analysis.

Yeah, agree. Like everything else, knowing is like opening the box. Then you see it everywhere else.

Similar experience from learning a load of NLP and related stuff at some point a lot of things become exposed that you cant un notice anymore.

Yep - the very definition of 'forbidden fruit'. And a bit like Monero, once open it can never be closed. And goes through many a emotional girations for years and years to finally become just a fact with not much of the early anger, despair and so on. Bit like Monero trading...lol

[johnalan]

XSH  (SHIELD ) gonna  be  good as   monero+ DAG and Quantum resistent, check it out

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2234453.0


P.S. I am  a monero early adopter ( when its  price  was at 5 $).

IT HAS A FUCKING RICH LIST
https://altmix.org/coins/2-SHIELD/explorer/richList

[johnalan]

... G20 news.

I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down

Short-term correlations do not always correlate with long-term correlations.  Crypto is somewhat like the broad equity or bond market, and all varieties correlate with Bitcoin for many immediate impulses, because so much accounting is done with Bitcoin numeraire, just as alpha-seeking is done with reference to a broad index. Within crypto there are sectors, such as contract- focussed or PoS, or various hash algos, for which both psychological and fundamental factors cause increased correlations in their impulse response to some triggering events. But in the long run, the small but persistent fundamental factors drive dispersion, as each stock (or alt) is driven pseudo-randomly by short-term factors of high correlation, but consistently and monotonically by long-term fundamental factors which differentiate it from it's "peers", and do not correlate.

Monero is unlike its "peers" because it has moneyness in spades. A tighter regulatory regime will cause a price shock, but if your time preference is long-term, it will not matter.  The same contraction which drives the price down short-term will only drive the price up in the long run.  The privacy sector will suffer shocks, but they will only serve to expose the fundamental factors which create demand for privacy, and discriminate Monero as the highest quality private currency (in terms of factors that matter:  liquidity, usability, and antifragility).

Gold is a larger, more integrated part of the economy (compared to crypto), moving on scales of decades and centuries.  How successful were Keynes, Roosevelt, Nixon, and Mao in suppressing the price and/or global trade in gold? How successful was the London gold pool?  In the short-term their actions shocked the market.  In the long run, they are history while gold persists, and inexorably rises in price.  Monero is much, much more like gold (but faster) than are it's "peers", which are more like the North Korean Won, or Theranos shares.

In fact, I contend that the crypto which is amenable to surveillance and central control will lose value in the long run, simply because it is surveilled and controlled - and not to your benefit - while the more decentralized and private crypto will experience consistent, persistent demand which inexorably pushes the price up.  A smack-down punch can take the price arbitrarily low, but the inexorable forces of demand will continue.  In fact, even in the near-term, the smacks just cause corresponding spikes later because they encourage speculators to enter.

Surveillance and centralized control serve the surveillor and controller, but privacy serves the users of the currency, and thus the denominated economy.  Hence the free economy will inexorably grow and produce wealth, while the slave economy founders and creates poverty.  We have seen this repeatedly throughout history.  So vivid is this lesson that Will Durant considers it the first and foremost "lesson of history”: There is and endless cycle in alternating ascendance of the forces of accumulation and centralization, on the one hand, and the forces of distribution and liberty on the other.

As always, an articulate and intriguing read.

I still believe XMR is a good future hold, have you any thoughts on whether BTC+Layer2 will be 'enough' privacy and erode the XMR value prop?

[CryptoBuds]

I call these the Wuhan dumps.  They are sure lot's of fun.

It's fun only for those people who understand the meaning of these games in crypto. Beginners is in panic from such falls for sure. However I'm sure that many traders could earn with this type of market.

[XMR2020]

As always, an articulate and intriguing read.

I still believe XMR is a good future hold, have you any thoughts on whether BTC+Layer2 will be 'enough' privacy and erode the XMR value prop?

Aminorex has shared his opinion on this point on several occasions, particularly eloquently here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg24387647#msg24387647. Of course, I would also welcome any additional insights.

[MGTOW_MONERO_XMR]

 

[MARKETING LIST] Ways you can help increase Monero's Growth & Adoption

1) Mention Monero via "word of mouth"

2) Youtube (or Video marketing)

3) Graphic design – create new Monero Logos & Imagery

4) Spread Monero Stickers, images (or Posters) around your locality

5) Stamp Monero marketing campaign (https://stampmonero.com)

6) Wear Monero Merchandise (T-shirts, Hats etc.)

7)  On your social media and gaming accounts: change your username & profile pictures to a Monero alias (Youtube, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, watsapp, Twitter, Steam etc.)

8 ) Post high quality articles & content across online communities & forums that educate and inform others about Monero

9) Attend local Monero meet-ups (or events)

10) Contact Websites & Media to request they contribute to Monero's coverage

11) Protect Monero's REPUTATION (privacy is NOT a crime)

12) Target Wealthy Investors (ULTRA HIGH NET WORTH)

 

[Hueristic]

I speculate my coins on binance will get frozen!

[Anon136]

Hey I'm going to predict the bottom. I bet Monero will meet a lot of resistance at 0.02 and Bitcoin will meet a lot of resistance at 6000. So 0.02*6000=120. Let's see how close I get. Someone quote this post someday if I get it right.

[phishead]

Stolen Bitcoin Tracing - Computerphile

Relaying a post from /r/Monero.  Reminder why optional publicity is important.

[solias]

Stolen Bitcoin Tracing - Computerphile

Relaying a post from /r/Monero.  Reminder why optional publicity is important.

Quoting concerns in the comments section:


Rik Wisselink 1 hour ago
Isn't there a large risk of punishing innocent people? If you sell a hotdog to a maffioso and let him pay with bitcoin, should your money be voided?

[aminorex]

If you are threatened by Bitcoin, then the answer is yes.  If you are not, then the answer is no.

[dEBRUYNE]

Stolen Bitcoin Tracing - Computerphile

Relaying a post from /r/Monero.  Reminder why optional publicity is important.

Quoting concerns in the comments section:


Rik Wisselink 1 hour ago
Isn't there a large risk of punishing innocent people? If you sell a hotdog to a maffioso and let him pay with bitcoin, should your money be voided?

I posted this example in 2015 (I still use it):

A more concrete example:

Let's say Alice sells a painting on OpenBazaar that is bought by Bob. Alice assumes Bob is a law abiding citizin and thus sends her BTC to Coinbase to exchange them for US dollars. However, what Alice didn't know is that Bob isn't the law abiding citizen that she thought he was. That is, Bob occasionally sells some illicit stuff on the darknet markets and used his proceeds to buy the painting. As a result, Alice gets flagged by Coinbase for trying to sell "tainted" coins.

A salient issue of Bitcoin's lack of fungibility is that law abiding citizens can be implicated fairly trivially, as shown by aforementioned examples.

[Hueristic]

Hey I'm going to predict the bottom. I bet Monero will meet a lot of resistance at 0.02 and Bitcoin will meet a lot of resistance at 6000. So 0.02*6000=120. Let's see how close I get. Someone quote this post someday if I get it right.

done.

Shit forgot to warn you guys, I put a long in @ .0244 that should mean no reversal in sight for at least the weekend!

[phishead]

So I'm curious how everyone views BTC, XMR, etc. correlating with the global economy... For some reason it seems to be following the DOW at least.  To me it seems to make sense... the more people are feeling confident in the economy, people tend to be willing to throw their money around and into investments, and therefore cryptos (because people view cryptocurrencies as 'risky' investments).

Does anyone here have any money in the market?  Also am I the only one who hopes the market explodes, even though I do have a 401(k) I'm throwing money at?

[Globb0]

Hey I'm going to predict the bottom. I bet Monero will meet a lot of resistance at 0.02 and Bitcoin will meet a lot of resistance at 6000. So 0.02*6000=120. Let's see how close I get. Someone quote this post someday if I get it right.

done.

Shit forgot to warn you guys, I put a long in @ .0244 that should mean no reversal in sight for at least the weekend!

Are we getting to that point?

Never did end up margin trading

I believe

[aminorex]

Bob occasionally sells some illicit stuff on the darknet markets and used his proceeds to buy the painting. As a result, Alice gets flagged by Coinbase for trying to sell "tainted" coins.

It doesn't have to be illicit or illegal.  DNMs broker many lawful transactions. There seems to be a presumption of guilt in operation.