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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3214579 times)
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April 09, 2018, 02:44:43 PM
 #37761

Past and history can be as a reference, but please don't take on September 4, 2017 points, every time is not the same, otherwise the market has been playing the longer earn more, but that is not the case.

I'm sorry you are going to have to explain this in clear English for me to understand what you mean. This reads like gibberish to me.

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April 09, 2018, 03:20:08 PM
 #37762

I'm shocked by the current price.

Not sure what to think.

Anyway fuck selling, just going to hold to zero.

The worse you feel, the more you buy.  The happier you feel, the more you sell.  It is one of the simplest forms of contrarianism, and one that works well in high volatility instruments with a persistent long-term uptrend.  It is also one of the psychologically most difficult rules to follow. It also requires cash in hand, or cash flows, during lows.

I generally expect BTC supply to diminish after April 15, and again Oct 15:  Big gains in 2017 mean big tax bills.  Summer may pop, but if not, then the holidays should pop even more.  It is starting to become a predictable cycle, so there will be a lot of effort sunk into front-running the cycle (whether real or imagined), so July or August seems like a good time to buy.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 09, 2018, 04:10:25 PM
 #37763

I'm shocked by the current price.

Not sure what to think.

Anyway fuck selling, just going to hold to zero.

The worse you feel, the more you buy.  The happier you feel, the more you sell.  It is one of the simplest forms of contrarianism, and one that works well in high volatility instruments with a persistent long-term uptrend.  It is also one of the psychologically most difficult rules to follow. It also requires cash in hand, or cash flows, during lows.

I generally expect BTC supply to diminish after April 15, and again Oct 15:  Big gains in 2017 mean big tax bills.  Summer may pop, but if not, then the holidays should pop even more.  It is starting to become a predictable cycle, so there will be a lot of effort sunk into front-running the cycle (whether real or imagined), so July or August seems like a good time to buy.



Yeah I've been DCA'ing all the way down, just about out of cash. About to go long again at 140 (if we reach it).

After that I'm fully invested.

I was sure we would see 800-1KUSd ~0.05 this year, seems unlikely now...
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April 09, 2018, 06:14:40 PM
Last edit: April 09, 2018, 08:59:36 PM by smooth
Merited by Shnikes101 (1)
 #37764

So...  most of the last version upgrade is terribly positive.  More new and important features.  A more stable and quicker IMHO GUI wallet.  Subadresses, multisig, and so on.

But the big NEWS is the tweak to render current ASICS useless.

And we are seeing the insane drop in hashrate, and crazy rise in mining profitability.   

But here in the SPECULATION thread I do not see much speculation as to what this means price wise for Monero.  I can't really figure it out myself.  So many moving parts...  So far there's been a little drop in price.  I imagine Jihan want's to revenge sell...  and he might have a warchest to do that with, though I doubt he kept more than he sold.  Then there are the forks.  Not a direct relationship, but related at least.

What do you guys think.  Way less hashpower hitting the network, yet so much more decentralized.  Web miners suddenly more profitable.

I think ASIC resistance is a positive thing for the project... but what does this do to the price?

I'd expect the massive dumping already happened (XMR ~ 50% of last month's high)

ASIC resistance is a goal of the project - price I'd expect to be a stable growth now, without meteoric rises hopefully attracting too much speculation.

Massive drop in hash shows that all the jscript miners really haven't deployed any updates. Similar situation appears to be true with botnet miners and ASIC miners, for now.

I think the previous mining is mainly done by the ASIC. There are still about 850MH/s mining the XMO


Mining was mainly done by ASIC because GPUs miners rather chose other coins.   Now they are flocking back to Monero. And hash rate will soon go back to close where it was.  Those 850MH/s will just do what they want to do. They are getting replaced as we speak.

It is a combination of both. The profitability had gone well below the historic range which means given current prices CPUs and GPUs would likely never push up the hash rate that high (ignoring slow Moore's Law-type improvements), only ASICs.

I would like to know what your thoughts on the git question you had posed now that we see the hash results? Are you happy with the result or would you still make an argument for ASICs in the future? I'm looking forward to a analysis of the hashrate as it progresses and a comprehensive aggregate of the probabilities of which percentage was indeed botnets as I expect they should be continuing to migrate back to the dominate chain (By which I mean the DEV supported chain).

ArticMine's analysis is pretty convincing that it was mostly ASICs. Botnets have been around forever and have never pushed profitability that low. Probably because they are constrained by available zombie machines (there are not tens of millions readily available for mining). It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense for botnets to end up quickly on the ASIC-friendly fork. They would have to be running their own pool/node, and not update it despite losing money, and most botnets we've seen have just used public pools (in which case they would stop mining altogether if not updated, not switch to the the ASIC-friendly fork).

As far as the GitHub ASIC-friendly question, it is still very much a hypothetical whether an ASIC-friendly approach could work and result in a competitive ASIC market, regardless of the algorithm. I'm personally somewhat doubtful on it, given the current realities of how chips are designed and manufactured. Perhaps there is a possibility of some sort of open source ASIC, but I don't know enough about the fabrication process to have an opinion on it.


@explorer, thanks for the heads up about the non-removed post. Not sure what happened, I did click delete on it.
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April 09, 2018, 06:50:45 PM
 #37765

secret ASICS everywhere ?

https://twitter.com/derek_hsue/status/983388352849371137?s=21
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April 09, 2018, 07:04:34 PM
 #37766


Very likely considering that there are Ethereum ASICs announced and being sold to customers (but not shipped). It is very much the same situation.
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April 09, 2018, 09:57:45 PM
 #37767

On Linux, the daemon is up, running, and synced, but the GUI says it is disconnected, and doesn't show a stairs update (green progress bar). It shows disconnected instead. When I click status in the GUI, it shows it as running at 100%, ie at current chain height. Terminal also shows it running.

Any ideas?
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April 10, 2018, 06:47:24 AM
 #37768

On Linux, the daemon is up, running, and synced, but the GUI says it is disconnected, and doesn't show a stairs update (green progress bar). It shows disconnected instead. When I click status in the GUI, it shows it as running at 100%, ie at current chain height. Terminal also shows it running.

Any ideas?

I actually have the exact same issue (64-bit), maybe repost in the Monero Support topic.

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
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 on.your.mark, get set, go!
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April 10, 2018, 09:29:01 AM
Merited by bitebits (1)
 #37769

On Linux, the daemon is up, running, and synced, but the GUI says it is disconnected, and doesn't show a stairs update (green progress bar). It shows disconnected instead. When I click status in the GUI, it shows it as running at 100%, ie at current chain height. Terminal also shows it running.

Any ideas?

I actually have the exact same issue (64-bit), maybe repost in the Monero Support topic.

Please see:

https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/7999/linux-gui-v0-12-does-not-connect-to-local-or-remote-node-stdbad-cast-error

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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April 10, 2018, 02:29:30 PM
 #37770

Very likely considering that there are Ethereum ASICs announced and being sold to customers (but not shipped). It is very much the same situation.

So, there's a chance that they are being produced and secretly sold to a small selection of buyers? Sounds to me like this is bordering conspiracy theory territory, but then again weirder things have happened.

I'm starting a technology blog T4CH.top, check it out!
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April 10, 2018, 02:37:37 PM
 #37771

it is not immediately obvious when the adoption overtakes emission. My calculation is that XMR is not loved by speculators currently, and even many who like the coin are temporarily out, waiting for the price to come down. This would mean rocket fuel at the point when it is clear to everybody that the 250-450 trading range is permanently behind us.
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April 10, 2018, 03:31:56 PM
 #37772

I have been analyzing the Monero chart and according to analysis, XMR has remained at $163 for the last hour, the triangular support line. The current price is above the support line and can rise to the $ 175 resistance line. Also, since the 100 SMA trend is lower than the 200 SMA trend, the support line is likely to collapse and the price is likely to be between $ 163 and $ 200. I expect a breakout from here.
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April 10, 2018, 03:45:47 PM
 #37773

https://qz.com/1247385/five-ways-to-reduce-your-cryptocurrency-taxes/

Quote
1: Be a long-term investor. Taxes are much lower if you own cryptocurrencies for more than one year; the IRS rewards patience. Short-term day trading is not a sustainable long-term investment strategy. Warren Buffett famously said, “The longer the view, the wiser the intention.” When Warren Buffett invests in a company, he assumes that the market will be closed for 10 years. Thinking long-term when investors do their due diligence on cryptocurrencies is a prudent strategy in most situations, as capital-gains taxes on investments held for more than one year are much lower than capital-gains taxes on investments held for less than one year.


Quote
The worst thing a cryptocurrency investor could do is to convert from one cryptocurrency to another if the investor has made a huge profit on the initial cryptocurrency. For example, if an investor bought $1 worth of Cryptocurrency A on Jan. 1 and then converted it into Cryptocurrency B once it reached a value of $101, then the investor would be taxed on the $100 gain, as the IRS views the conversion from one cryptocurrency to another as a sale and a purchase.
Then, if we assume that the same investor’s investment in Cryptocurrency B went from a value of $101 when Cryptocurrency B was purchased in year one to a value of $1 when they sold Cryptocurrency B in year two, then the tax implications are horrific. In this example, the investor would have to pay taxes on the $100 in realized profits in year one, even though the investor lost $100 on Cryptocurrency B in year two.

Quote
5: You can gift or donate your cryptocurrency and not pay taxes, if you have not sold the cryptocurrency. The process is similar to how the gifting of stocks process works. According to Schwab, when you gift a stock, the value of the gift is the fair market value when the stock has been gifted and, according to IRS guidelines, the maximum gift size for 2017 tax purposes is $14,000 per gift.

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April 10, 2018, 03:59:04 PM
Merited by Nathan047 (1)
 #37774

there are Ethereum ASICs announced and being sold to customers (but not shipped). It is very much the same situation.

So, there's a chance that they are being produced and secretly sold to a small selection of buyers? Sounds to me like this is bordering conspiracy theory territory, but then again weirder things have happened.

Consider the position of an ASIC system builder.  If their rigs are profitable to operate why would they deliver them to customers?  The only reason would be to nourish guanxi.  Sales are all to the good - cash in hand being king - but deferring delivery on those sales means the bulk of the mining reward on that hardware can be earned in a few weeks or days, and the hardware sold at the high early price but delivered with much less ROI later in the hardware cycle.

I mean, it would be strange if it was not being done, since it would de-optimize the producers ROI.  Impetus to deliver to customers only arises when a competitor begins selling, driving the rig price down, and/or crashes your reward share.

In any case, it is not a conspiracy unless multiple actors collude for an unlawful purpose.  Nothing to see here then; move along.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 10, 2018, 06:09:13 PM
Merited by leea-1334 (1)
 #37775

Overall, Monero got lots of positive press and videos and everything now with changing mining algorithm.  More people that got in crypto in 2017 will now look at Monero. I bet all metrics of Monero went up ( google searches, reddit subs, ...) Such things are not seen on price immediately but gradually over time.

.BitDice.               ▄▄███▄▄
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[/]
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April 10, 2018, 07:33:57 PM
 #37776

Overall, Monero got lots of positive press and videos and everything now with changing mining algorithm.  More people that got in crypto in 2017 will now look at Monero. I bet all metrics of Monero went up ( google searches, reddit subs, ...) Such things are not seen on price immediately but gradually over time.

Yea. Confirmed. Big boost. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=monero

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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April 10, 2018, 09:26:22 PM
 #37777

Overall, Monero got lots of positive press and videos and everything now with changing mining algorithm.  More people that got in crypto in 2017 will now look at Monero. I bet all metrics of Monero went up ( google searches, reddit subs, ...) Such things are not seen on price immediately but gradually over time.

Yea. Confirmed. Big boost. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=monero

NICE, good call Febo and thx for the link I always forget about that. I find it interesting when broken down by region as well. China is way up there, I like that. Smiley

BTW this makes me smile. Cheesy

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin%20cash

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April 11, 2018, 01:29:36 AM
 #37778

Overall, Monero got lots of positive press and videos and everything now with changing mining algorithm.  More people that got in crypto in 2017 will now look at Monero. I bet all metrics of Monero went up ( google searches, reddit subs, ...) Such things are not seen on price immediately but gradually over time.

Yea. Confirmed. Big boost. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=monero

NICE, good call Febo and thx for the link I always forget about that. I find it interesting when broken down by region as well. China is way up there, I like that. Smiley

BTW this makes me smile. Cheesy

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin%20cash

Oman, I lold. I search things on there all the time but it's always projects that I'm interested in. I never thought to search for crap to see if it is dying.

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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April 11, 2018, 05:39:22 AM
 #37779

Well that dump was snatched right up, very nice.

https://www.binance.com/tradeDetail.html?symbol=XMR_BTC

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April 11, 2018, 06:14:37 AM
 #37780

I have been analyzing the Monero chart and according to analysis, XMR has remained at $163 for the last hour, the triangular support line. The current price is above the support line and can rise to the $ 175 resistance line. Also, since the 100 SMA trend is lower than the 200 SMA trend, the support line is likely to collapse and the price is likely to be between $ 163 and $ 200. I expect a breakout from here.

I somehow thought that since the mining has become cheaper, the price will start dropping for a while.
But nothing dramatic has happened on the markets and from what I read here the price has a good chance to actually rise. I wish you guys are right.

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