[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

 Breathing on 0.0067xx
Looks like some shorts closing in this range.

I suppose my prediction of low 0,006 / high 0,005 will be reached by the end of November  

In march went to 0.0061 and last October went to 0.006. It is very hard to expect to go under that now. Yes, last month was super bad compared to BTC but I guess that was just weak hands that entered Monero few months ago.

In general is funny that it all went just as always did. But the rumour, sell the news. At end of summer there were rumours number of transactions will increase. They did, but so so. Then in October actually started increasing a lot and dump happened.

   I think .0061 would be very hard to get to, and I would hate to see it that low again.  On the other hand, the recent 0.0068X just doesn't feel like a bottom, so I'm awaiting another leg down.  All it takes is the next BTC level-up while we hang out in the $11X range like cAPSLOCK forecast.  A strong reversal above the 0.0061 range is what I want to see.

It is hovering a couple bucks lower than I guessed...  But of course I can redraw all my lines to fit this number.  But in all seriousness this is where I saw it breaking through and where i figured support would form.  What I DID NOT anticipate that ion a couple weeks it would be trading at like 140USD.  So in some ways that push and drop is sort of a non event if the 110-115 range will hold as we consolodate.

On the other hand I was a professional audio engineer for almost my entire career.  What the hell do I know?

  Looking at your chart, It looks like a few weeks until going on a  tear.  Some more down in the mean time wouldn't change that at all, in my mind.  This rhymes with El Rippo's  BTC:XMR forecast as well.  His lower target receded some, with the speed of the drop, but otherwise is playing out on schedule.  The chance of a break down instead of up I can't really concede; to what end?  Is it broken?  All metrics point up.  Tx rate exploding, tech constantly updated, easier to use, more need than ever for privacy.   Anything that happens in the mean time is just whales splashing: impatient for the tide.

[explorer]

   Anyone else here jonesing for an old fashioned monero style parobolic journey? 
I wonder if there's another one of such vigor still to come, or if its going to have mellowed with maturity.

[elrippos friend]

 Breathing on 0.0067xx
Looks like some shorts closing in this range.

I suppose my prediction of low 0,006 / high 0,005 will be reached by the end of November  

In march went to 0.0061 and last October went to 0.006. It is very hard to expect to go under that now. Yes, last month was super bad compared to BTC but I guess that was just weak hands that entered Monero few months ago.

In general is funny that it all went just as always did. But the rumour, sell the news. At end of summer there were rumours number of transactions will increase. They did, but so so. Then in October actually started increasing a lot and dump happened.

   I think .0061 would be very hard to get to, and I would hate to see it that low again.  On the other hand, the recent 0.0068X just doesn't feel like a bottom, so I'm awaiting another leg down.  All it takes is the next BTC level-up while we hang out in the $11X range like cAPSLOCK forecast.  A strong reversal above the 0.0061 range is what I want to see.

It is hovering a couple bucks lower than I guessed...  But of course I can redraw all my lines to fit this number.  But in all seriousness this is where I saw it breaking through and where i figured support would form.  What I DID NOT anticipate that ion a couple weeks it would be trading at like 140USD.  So in some ways that push and drop is sort of a non event if the 110-115 range will hold as we consolodate.

On the other hand I was a professional audio engineer for almost my entire career.  What the hell do I know?

  Looking at your chart, It looks like a few weeks until going on a  tear.  Some more down in the mean time wouldn't change that at all, in my mind.  This rhymes with El Rippo's  BTC:XMR forecast as well.  His lower target receded some, with the speed of the drop, but otherwise is playing out on schedule.  The chance of a break down instead of up I can't really concede; to what end?  Is it broken?  All metrics point up.  Tx rate exploding, tech constantly updated, easier to use, more need than ever for privacy.   Anything that happens in the mean time is just whales splashing: impatient for the tide.

As the BTC-XMR ratio is dropping, people in here are getting more and more emotional and frustrated, which i personally can fully understand and if i am criticized for some harsh predictions i am aware that i am hurting peoples feelings, so in order to scope with that, i truly apologize 
I mined my first Monero block in February 2015, i did have absolutely no clue about price behaviour, analysis of anything, circumstances impacting prices, adoption, technical perspectives and juristictions and so on. I stumbled over Monero because i read an article about a BTC millionare analysing crypto, how to tell if it is a scam, how to rate if a coin is legit, how to predict the future of a coin and that happened to be Risto. So i am in since 2014 and i think i made the large portion of mistakes that one can make. I started wit 11,6433989 Monero, accumulated and tried to trade, lost in trading, accumulated again, again lost in trading and repeated that cycle for several times, so i know how it feels like if you lose your beloved Monero because you are lacking knowledge. I hope i am coming on the way and i am glad that my prediction played well until now, but i think -as explorer already mentioned- we will see low 0,006 and eventually a panic dip for the high 0,005 to accumulate some nice and fresh Monero.

So guys, please don't get me wrong, just trying to benefit from my earlier mistakes and hopefully make up some of that lost trading experience from the past 

[dragonvslinux]

Latest chart is looking a bit bleak again.



Still I will flip my small forey back into Monero.

Got to believe in it.

This fud is so empty. I don't see any substance in it!

Was thinking the other day that price needs to bounce back to stand a chance, but looks like this has started to happen now at least:



Finding support from the 0.236 fib retracement and VPVR point of control, finally bounces from a the third TD 9 "buy signal" in a row...

On a Weekly time-frame, the price strength hasn't yet confirmed bearish momentum (<40), which is hopeful:



Just a shame I didn't sell half at 0.0115 when price had doubled and was clearly overbought, you win some you lose some I guess!

[cAPSLOCK]

 Breathing on 0.0067xx
Looks like some shorts closing in this range.

I suppose my prediction of low 0,006 / high 0,005 will be reached by the end of November  

In march went to 0.0061 and last October went to 0.006. It is very hard to expect to go under that now. Yes, last month was super bad compared to BTC but I guess that was just weak hands that entered Monero few months ago.

In general is funny that it all went just as always did. But the rumour, sell the news. At end of summer there were rumours number of transactions will increase. They did, but so so. Then in October actually started increasing a lot and dump happened.

   I think .0061 would be very hard to get to, and I would hate to see it that low again.  On the other hand, the recent 0.0068X just doesn't feel like a bottom, so I'm awaiting another leg down.  All it takes is the next BTC level-up while we hang out in the $11X range like cAPSLOCK forecast.  A strong reversal above the 0.0061 range is what I want to see.

It is hovering a couple bucks lower than I guessed...  But of course I can redraw all my lines to fit this number.  But in all seriousness this is where I saw it breaking through and where i figured support would form.  What I DID NOT anticipate that ion a couple weeks it would be trading at like 140USD.  So in some ways that push and drop is sort of a non event if the 110-115 range will hold as we consolodate.

On the other hand I was a professional audio engineer for almost my entire career.  What the hell do I know?

  Looking at your chart, It looks like a few weeks until going on a  tear.  Some more down in the mean time wouldn't change that at all, in my mind.  This rhymes with El Rippo's  BTC:XMR forecast as well.  His lower target receded some, with the speed of the drop, but otherwise is playing out on schedule.  The chance of a break down instead of up I can't really concede; to what end?  Is it broken?  All metrics point up.  Tx rate exploding, tech constantly updated, easier to use, more need than ever for privacy.   Anything that happens in the mean time is just whales splashing: impatient for the tide.

As the BTC-XMR ratio is dropping, people in here are getting more and more emotional and frustrated, which i personally can fully understand and if i am criticized for some harsh predictions i am aware that i am hurting peoples feelings, so in order to scope with that, i truly apologize 
I mined my first Monero block in February 2015, i did have absolutely no clue about price behaviour, analysis of anything, circumstances impacting prices, adoption, technical perspectives and juristictions and so on. I stumbled over Monero because i read an article about a BTC millionare analysing crypto, how to tell if it is a scam, how to rate if a coin is legit, how to predict the future of a coin and that happened to be Risto. So i am in since 2014 and i think i made the large portion of mistakes that one can make. I started wit 11,6433989 Monero, accumulated and tried to trade, lost in trading, accumulated again, again lost in trading and repeated that cycle for several times, so i know how it feels like if you lose your beloved Monero because you are lacking knowledge. I hope i am coming on the way and i am glad that my prediction played well until now, but i think -as explorer already mentioned- we will see low 0,006 and eventually a panic dip for the high 0,005 to accumulate some nice and fresh Monero.

So guys, please don't get me wrong, just trying to benefit from my earlier mistakes and hopefully make up some of that lost trading experience from the past 

Nothing you have ever said or predicted has ever upset me in the slightest.  This is what this thread is for in fact.  I appreciate your input.

[elrippos friend]

Latest chart is looking a bit bleak again.



Still I will flip my small forey back into Monero.

Got to believe in it.

This fud is so empty. I don't see any substance in it!

Was thinking the other day that price needs to bounce back to stand a chance, but looks like this has started to happen now at least:



Finding support from the 0.236 fib retracement and VPVR point of control, finally bounces from a the third TD 9 "buy signal" in a row...

On a Weekly time-frame, the price strength hasn't yet confirmed bearish momentum (<40), which is hopeful:



Just a shame I didn't sell half at 0.0115 when price had doubled and was clearly overbought, you win some you lose some I guess!

Well, that was my anticipation 

[elrippos friend]

 Breathing on 0.0067xx
Looks like some shorts closing in this range.

I suppose my prediction of low 0,006 / high 0,005 will be reached by the end of November  

In march went to 0.0061 and last October went to 0.006. It is very hard to expect to go under that now. Yes, last month was super bad compared to BTC but I guess that was just weak hands that entered Monero few months ago.

In general is funny that it all went just as always did. But the rumour, sell the news. At end of summer there were rumours number of transactions will increase. They did, but so so. Then in October actually started increasing a lot and dump happened.

   I think .0061 would be very hard to get to, and I would hate to see it that low again.  On the other hand, the recent 0.0068X just doesn't feel like a bottom, so I'm awaiting another leg down.  All it takes is the next BTC level-up while we hang out in the $11X range like cAPSLOCK forecast.  A strong reversal above the 0.0061 range is what I want to see.

It is hovering a couple bucks lower than I guessed...  But of course I can redraw all my lines to fit this number.  But in all seriousness this is where I saw it breaking through and where i figured support would form.  What I DID NOT anticipate that ion a couple weeks it would be trading at like 140USD.  So in some ways that push and drop is sort of a non event if the 110-115 range will hold as we consolodate.

On the other hand I was a professional audio engineer for almost my entire career.  What the hell do I know?

  Looking at your chart, It looks like a few weeks until going on a  tear.  Some more down in the mean time wouldn't change that at all, in my mind.  This rhymes with El Rippo's  BTC:XMR forecast as well.  His lower target receded some, with the speed of the drop, but otherwise is playing out on schedule.  The chance of a break down instead of up I can't really concede; to what end?  Is it broken?  All metrics point up.  Tx rate exploding, tech constantly updated, easier to use, more need than ever for privacy.   Anything that happens in the mean time is just whales splashing: impatient for the tide.

As the BTC-XMR ratio is dropping, people in here are getting more and more emotional and frustrated, which i personally can fully understand and if i am criticized for some harsh predictions i am aware that i am hurting peoples feelings, so in order to scope with that, i truly apologize 
I mined my first Monero block in February 2015, i did have absolutely no clue about price behaviour, analysis of anything, circumstances impacting prices, adoption, technical perspectives and juristictions and so on. I stumbled over Monero because i read an article about a BTC millionare analysing crypto, how to tell if it is a scam, how to rate if a coin is legit, how to predict the future of a coin and that happened to be Risto. So i am in since 2014 and i think i made the large portion of mistakes that one can make. I started wit 11,6433989 Monero, accumulated and tried to trade, lost in trading, accumulated again, again lost in trading and repeated that cycle for several times, so i know how it feels like if you lose your beloved Monero because you are lacking knowledge. I hope i am coming on the way and i am glad that my prediction played well until now, but i think -as explorer already mentioned- we will see low 0,006 and eventually a panic dip for the high 0,005 to accumulate some nice and fresh Monero.

So guys, please don't get me wrong, just trying to benefit from my earlier mistakes and hopefully make up some of that lost trading experience from the past 

Nothing you have ever said or predicted has ever upset me in the slightest.  This is what this thread is for in fact.  I appreciate your input.

Thanks, good to hear 
I also appreciate the input of everybody in here 

[cAPSLOCK]

Thanks, good to hear 
I also appreciate the input of everybody in here 

I am a firm believer that one should not hold more in a speculative asset than is tolerable when hard times hit.  None of us like to see XMR go down... but if you have been around crypto for a while you will have experienced some of the most epic rises and drops imaginable.  Some people can't handle it, and that is understandable.  Some people have "bet the farm" and that is risky.  But to each their own!

[elrippos friend]

Thanks, good to hear 
I also appreciate the input of everybody in here 

I am a firm believer that one should not hold more in a speculative asset than is tolerable when hard times hit.  None of us like to see XMR go down... but if you have been around crypto for a while you will have experienced some of the most epic rises and drops imaginable.  Some people can't handle it, and that is understandable.  Some people have "bet the farm" and that is risky.  But to each their own!

Presently i am in the latter group 

[cAPSLOCK]

Thanks, good to hear 
I also appreciate the input of everybody in here 

I am a firm believer that one should not hold more in a speculative asset than is tolerable when hard times hit.  None of us like to see XMR go down... but if you have been around crypto for a while you will have experienced some of the most epic rises and drops imaginable.  Some people can't handle it, and that is understandable.  Some people have "bet the farm" and that is risky.  But to each their own!

Presently i am in the latter group 

Well, and after all that has happened, so am I, really.  Lol.  But I can handle the stress.

[cAPSLOCK]

Oh and I jut want to say..

Montero, you are weird.  Up like crazy, down when others go up.  Hide in the crowd going down.  Then up when everyone else goes down.

You know what this tells me?

It tells me Monero is being constantly used for something(s) aside from speculation, which is all the rest of the sector other than the corn is being used for.

[cAPSLOCK]

Art this point I think the salient question is do we punch through the floor?  Or do we make a higher low.

Place your bets.

[BayAreaCoins]

Someone big is buying Monero... this is a market shake out trying to part some week hands of their sweet XMR.

I don't trust this dip. Buy buy buy!

We need more people willing to buy and sell XMR on https://freebitcoins.com/xchange/market/Bitcoin-Monero (no KYC or anything weird, just make an account and go... no email required even.)

(Sort of related, but not really, Freebitcoins.com has listed Wownero... which is a fork of Monero, but has ten times the coins for ten times the WOW! lol )

[explorer]

Art this point I think the salient question is do we punch through the floor?  Or do we make a higher low.

Place your bets.

   I'm betting on a higher low.  If this was a depressing bear market, maybe a dip to a new low.  But now?  Doesn't sit well with me.  I don't lose by betting on a higher low.  If I buy a little too soon, and it spikes down to a new low and back up while I sleep, I'm happy with my purchase.  Anything with 2 leading zeros is cheap coins next year. month.

[elrippos friend]

Thanks, good to hear 
I also appreciate the input of everybody in here 

I am a firm believer that one should not hold more in a speculative asset than is tolerable when hard times hit.  None of us like to see XMR go down... but if you have been around crypto for a while you will have experienced some of the most epic rises and drops imaginable.  Some people can't handle it, and that is understandable.  Some people have "bet the farm" and that is risky.  But to each their own!

Presently i am in the latter group 

Well, and after all that has happened, so am I, really.  Lol.  But I can handle the stress.

Good to know that i am officially not alone in the nutshell on the open 

Oh and I jut want to say..

Montero, you are weird.  Up like crazy, down when others go up.  Hide in the crowd going down.  Then up when everyone else goes down.

You know what this tells me?

It tells me Monero is being constantly used for something(s) aside from speculation, which is all the rest of the sector other than the corn is being used for.

Te people buying Monero are weirdos 

Someone big is buying Monero... this is a market shake out trying to part some week hands of their sweet XMR.

I don't trust this dip. Buy buy buy!

(Sort of related, but not really, Freebitcoins.com has listed Wownero... which is a fork of Monero, but has ten times the coins for ten times the WOW! lol )

I guess we are levelling out the bottom, so there are some minor dips coming over the next two weeks to the low 0,006 figures 

[elrippos friend]

Art this point I think the salient question is do we punch through the floor?  Or do we make a higher low.

Place your bets.

   I'm betting on a higher low.  If this was a depressing bear market, maybe a dip to a new low.  But now?  Doesn't sit well with me.  I don't lose by betting on a higher low.  If I buy a little too soon, and it spikes down to a new low and back up while I sleep, I'm happy with my purchase.  Anything with 2 leading zeros is cheap coins next year. month.

My prediction stands, but as we saw from the past double zeros are and propably always will accompain Monero in a dip 

[elrippos friend]

Ps.: I am happy that there is some movement in this thread, was dead for years 

[XMR2020]

Art this point I think the salient question is do we punch through the floor?  Or do we make a higher low.

Place your bets.

I am watching that trend line as well. I bet higher low. The selling volume below 0.78 was pretty unimpressive. We landed right back in our 15 month long accumulation range with a higher low. I can't imagine whomever scooped up the coins on this dip is looking to sell here. My guess is that someone used the recent spike as an opportunity exit a low conviction position. We may go lower, but after a year in this zone and the tail emission rapidly approaching, we will run out of low conviction holders eventually.

[tokeweed]

^  All action is at BTC rn.

Andreas Antonopoulos talks about Monero and its strong privacy compared to Bitcoin. First time getting an endorsement from Andreas?

https://twitter.com/monero_tv/status/1324615860439281665

He prolly lost his private keys in a boating accident.  I think a lot of people will after not knowing what to do with their BTC gains.  They'd have to hide earnings from the guvment.

[kurious]

Personally, I don't think Monero will go to the 005s or even low 006s.  If it does, it will be because BTC rips up (or corrects suddenly) and it will be temporary.  Absolute worst case is bouncing off 0.0063 - but I can't see that in all but 10% of scenarios.

I see strengthening support in XMR/BTC around the .007 mark, even what looks like a double bottom. The XMR/USD chart looks healthier still.

We shall see, but the buy side XMR/BTC is strengthening again slightly (from what looked to be the worst ratio in a long time).  I will agree it's early to be saying so, the volume is still low, but I am thinking there is a good chance of this being the local bottom.

Gonna cull a few alts and throw the proceeds in.  Hope I am right

DYOR - I did sell the top a bit, but bought back in far too early.  Props to elrippos friend for a better take on the drop than I had.