[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Globb0]

Please let it be before Im dead FFS

[tokeweed]

^  Yup...  C'mon Romero, show them what you got! 



But at least 150 seems to be holding.  And I think there's something happening here.  Every lull on BTC's rise, XMR pumps.

[IntroVert]

Target:  XMR at 3k USD some time next year...  Prolly around November.  Too lofty or likely possible?  I have this funny feeling it could get there and flippen a lot of alts in the process.

Such a wild card.  I put 3k USD in the same bucket as $80k BTC - High probability, and likely much, much higher.  The case for Monero gets stronger by the hour, it seems to me.  Get your Bull on.

I'd say closer to 6-10k would be a more top-ish area to consider this cycle go-around.

If it makes it into that range I will personally fly out to your island and kiss you on the head.

The corn just breeched 20. Woop.

If I see XMR in 4 digits, it would be something that 6 years ago wasnt even in the realm of possibilities I considered. It would  be one of the signature moments in crypto, at least for me.

[cAPSLOCK]

Target:  XMR at 3k USD some time next year...  Prolly around November.  Too lofty or likely possible?  I have this funny feeling it could get there and flippen a lot of alts in the process.

Such a wild card.  I put 3k USD in the same bucket as $80k BTC - High probability, and likely much, much higher.  The case for Monero gets stronger by the hour, it seems to me.  Get your Bull on.

I'd say closer to 6-10k would be a more top-ish area to consider this cycle go-around.

If it makes it into that range I will personally fly out to your island and kiss you on the head.

The corn just breeched 20. Woop.

If I see XMR in 4 digits, it would be something that 6 years ago wasnt even in the realm of possibilities I considered. It would  be one of the signature moments in crypto, at least for me.

With XMR riding the BTC slingshot it could certainly get there if the XMRBTC price can hold or even increase.  That's going to be the kicker.  I think in this cycle we might begin to see which alts are considered to have promise.  And kind of oddly I do not know for sure XMR will be on that list for the retail side at first.  Reason being it is not widely available on the exchanges retail folks (esp. boomers) are going to use, it is still slightly more difficult to use with even hardware wallets, and it has the bad boy status (WHM, porn etc).

On the other hand I really think smart money will see it as an interesting hedge, and as much as I know many prefer not to concentrate on this, there is no doubt it will end up the king of black/gray market transactions.  Eventually I believe most drug trade will be done using Monero, eventually even on the street (10 years).

To that point I suppose yesterday was the PornHub pump (hmm... memes?) and I believe we will see more people wanting to use Monero when they realize the lack of privacy they face with nearly all other crypto.

Monero has always been the outlier.  Remember when we only had a CLI wallet?  I 'member.

It's gonna sneak up on people.  That I know for sure.

[explorer]

   Sic 'em, Schnauzer!

[explorer]

...
Monero has always been the outlier.  Remember when we only had a CLI wallet?  I 'member.

It's gonna sneak up on people.  That I know for sure.

   I remember having little success trying to run it on my (this!) computer.  Moneroj scattered across mymonero and polo, faithfully waiting for more usable software.  Sweating, empathetic, relieved to have my coins safe when (birr?) had his wallet swallowed in mymonero with ~7k XMR.  The New Year's surprise software delivery, the pumps, the dumps, the confirmation at every turn that this was the path.  Cheers to rpietela and aminorex for lighting the trailhead.

[Globb0]

the confirmation at every turn that this was the path.  Cheers to rpietela

I begrudgingly agree. Shame RP soured it somewhere along the way, I did have massive respect for him once.

I suppose there is a lesson in there somewhere for me.

I would have been another one of the suckers but for my technical incompetence.   

[explorer]

the confirmation at every turn that this was the path.  Cheers to rpietela

I begrudgingly agree. Shame RP soured it somewhere along the way, I did have massive respect for him once.

I suppose there is a lesson in there somewhere for me.

I would have been another one of the suckers but for my technical incompetence.  

Yeah, he went off the rails, sadly.  But he did good, too.  RIP

Meanwhile, there is a limited time sale on XMR-BTC

[kurious]

Pulled down by BTC ripping up, but pulled back nicely as BTC settled back.

It's a sweet hint of what is to come.  As long as the sling shot is still there, and it seems it still is - all we need to do is hold while Bitcoin tears up and salivate.

I do expect a very good Spring for us.

[elrippos friend]

Looks like my prediction is quite accurate, so let's see what this bloody dump does to Monero, but i believe we will revisit 0,0063 

[Febo]

31,571 transactions in last 24h. This will be new record after 9 days. It is funny when you look at other coins, beside Litecoin number of transactions is as the usual day. This tells that way more people hold Monero in their private wallets and they need to send it to exchanges to trade.

[cAPSLOCK]

OK.  This increase in usage is so bullish.

You know if you think about it, transactions on a chain are very uniquely influenced by the design of that asset.  It's not just all equal. The design and parameters of the asset create all kinds of downstream incentives, etc.

For example:

BTC: Has the small block strategy has put a functional cap on BTC's transaction volume and that has a direct impact on transaction fees.  This creates all kinds of incentives for users that do not exist on chains without a limit, or with not enough use to matter.  Transaction batching, the growing importance of trusted third parties, layer two incentives etc.  All unique to this chain still.  Also, the VAST majority of transactions on the BTC chain are 100% value focused, but not all.

ETH: Completely different.  ETH gets moved around with all ERC20 transactions.  So it's basically just constant transaction fees.  No limits mean no need to make things efficient.  The ETH philosophy is use resources without regard to cost strategy.  So that network can get congested AND expensive, and the bloated blockchain will either break ETH or centralize it in the end, and if it continues to be used people will just have to accept that.  ETH has more transactions than any chain, because it is basically involved n every transaction for every child token that is available. (I really think it is just a nightmare.)

BSV: The ultimate big block chain that isn't ETH, lol.  This chain is actually incentivizing making as many transactions as possible just to show that it can, and in my opinion ultimately centralizes.  They are actively spamming the chain constantly to support the narrative, or if you are a believer do proof of concept.  Most of what is going on the blockchain is (well there's a lot of wash transactions...) data storage.  So you are getting high transactions with high block sizes.  The central parties involved with this chain are incentivized to make transactions purely for show.  Gigamegs are core to it's narrative.

XMR: No blocksize limit, but ONLY transactional.  All of Monero's volume is value transfer.  But here's Monero's interesting twist.  We can't know very much about what happens in a particular transaction, but only that it happened.  The baked in layer 1 privacy, along with the flexible block size limits changes incentives slightly.  There is absolutely ZERO incentive to transact on the Monero blockchain for any reason but ONE.  I would not think anyone would be inflating blocksize/tx volume to try to prove a point ala BSV.  And I am not aware of any projects as of yet that would use the chain for something else, sort of like counterparty or blockstack on BTC,  or all of ETH.

So.....

We can be fairly certain that all of Monero's transaction volume is real and organic.  There is no incentive for anyone to pay for a transaction other than to move XMR. So people are actually USING the coin.  AND along with only a handful of crypto tokens aside from BTC we know that XMR is being used in real world transactions. 

This means the increased volume can only be two things that I can think of:

Increased real world use as a money.
Increased positions being taken (or liquidated) by speculators.

Like I said... this is incredibly bullish fundamentally. 

We are here.

[explorer]

  

MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
                     Monero   Bitcoin   Ratio
Dec 2020*  678,411   9,799,567   6.92%
Nov 2020   523,842   9,145,550   5.73%
Oct 2020   501,273   9,284,673   5.40%
Sep 2020   396,854   9,495,331   4.18%
Aug 2020   381,555   9,793,583   3.90%
Jul 2020   331,181   10,158,131   3.26%
Jun 2020   340,895   9,192,440   3.71%
May 2020   400,871   9,092,682   4.41%
Apr 2020   365,875   8,702,021   4.20%
Mar 2020   303,291   8,904,203   3.41%
Feb 2020   231,953   9,439,548   2.46%
Jan 2020   257,942   9,612,337   2.68%

*est.

info from https://www.monero.how/

Something wrong with the XMR price, at 0.65% BTC

[explorer]

Looks like my prediction is quite accurate, so let's see what this bloody dump does to Monero, but i believe we will revisit 0,0063 

  0.006473 @Binance so far.  I don't want them to fill, but I left a couple buys @ 0.0062 and .0060 range, just in case.  I'd rather keep the BTC, and take my bags to higher ground now

[elrippos friend]

Looks like my prediction is quite accurate, so let's see what this bloody dump does to Monero, but i believe we will revisit 0,0063 

  0.006473 @Binance so far.  I don't want them to fill, but I left a couple buys @ 0.0062 and .0060 range, just in case.  I'd rather keep the BTC, and take my bags to higher ground now

Let's see, but BTC is surching so i left a buy option at 0,0063 

[Globb0]

OK.  This increase in usage is so bullish.

You know if you think about it, transactions on a chain are very uniquely influenced by the design of that asset.  It's not just all equal. The design and parameters of the asset create all kinds of downstream incentives, etc.

For example:

BTC: Has the small block strategy has put a functional cap on BTC's transaction volume and that has a direct impact on transaction fees.  This creates all kinds of incentives for users that do not exist on chains without a limit, or with not enough use to matter.  Transaction batching, the growing importance of trusted third parties, layer two incentives etc.  All unique to this chain still.  Also, the VAST majority of transactions on the BTC chain are 100% value focused, but not all.

ETH: Completely different.  ETH gets moved around with all ERC20 transactions.  So it's basically just constant transaction fees.  No limits mean no need to make things efficient.  The ETH philosophy is use resources without regard to cost strategy.  So that network can get congested AND expensive, and the bloated blockchain will either break ETH or centralize it in the end, and if it continues to be used people will just have to accept that.  ETH has more transactions than any chain, because it is basically involved n every transaction for every child token that is available. (I really think it is just a nightmare.)

BSV: The ultimate big block chain that isn't ETH, lol.  This chain is actually incentivizing making as many transactions as possible just to show that it can, and in my opinion ultimately centralizes.  They are actively spamming the chain constantly to support the narrative, or if you are a believer do proof of concept.  Most of what is going on the blockchain is (well there's a lot of wash transactions...) data storage.  So you are getting high transactions with high block sizes.  The central parties involved with this chain are incentivized to make transactions purely for show.  Gigamegs are core to it's narrative.

XMR: No blocksize limit, but ONLY transactional.  All of Monero's volume is value transfer.  But here's Monero's interesting twist.  We can't know very much about what happens in a particular transaction, but only that it happened.  The baked in layer 1 privacy, along with the flexible block size limits changes incentives slightly.  There is absolutely ZERO incentive to transact on the Monero blockchain for any reason but ONE.  I would not think anyone would be inflating blocksize/tx volume to try to prove a point ala BSV.  And I am not aware of any projects as of yet that would use the chain for something else, sort of like counterparty or blockstack on BTC,  or all of ETH.

So.....

We can be fairly certain that all of Monero's transaction volume is real and organic.  There is no incentive for anyone to pay for a transaction other than to move XMR. So people are actually USING the coin.  AND along with only a handful of crypto tokens aside from BTC we know that XMR is being used in real world transactions. 

This means the increased volume can only be two things that I can think of:

Increased real world use as a money.
Increased positions being taken (or liquidated) by speculators.

Like I said... this is incredibly bullish fundamentally. 

We are here.

Could it be the tari kicking in? wasn't that going o be a bit eth style and assisting the Monero chain?

By your description maybe the bsv is trying to be the 5 years time bitcoin (forever poisoned in my mind by the bad actors)

[XMR2020]

There is no incentive for anyone to pay for a transaction other than to move XMR.

I believe most of the transaction volume growth is organic, however, this statement is not strictly true. The privacy features of XMR provide incentive for attackers to transact in an attempt to weaken the privacy. Lets not forget the IRS bounty on tracking Monero.

Gavin visited the CIA in 2011. The Snowden leaks revealed the NSA was tracking bitcoin users as early as 2013. In 2018 the department of defence ran war game scenarios involving a Bitcoin rebellion.  If the public even becomes aware of these initiatives it is typically years later.

Rest assured the public IRS announcement is not the only well resourced adversary trying to unravel Monero privacy. They are guaranteed to be running nodes, making transactions, monitoring the networking layer, collecting metadata, and tracking outputs.

[Febo]

Could it be the tari kicking in? wasn't that going o be a bit eth style and assisting the Monero chain?

Tari will not add transactions to Monero. Will be or already is on testnet own blockchain. What will have incommon with Monero is that miners that mine Monero will also mine Tari. So secure both networks.

I believe most of the transaction volume growth is organic, however, this statement is not strictly true. The privacy features of XMR provide incentive for attackers to transact in an attempt to weaken the privacy. Lets not forget the IRS bounty on tracking Monero.

They would need to make a lot of transactions to be successful. And once ring signature will raise it will make their work exponentially harder. Also lets say two agencies want to do this attack. KGB and CIA. While one of them is adding transactions it is just making other agency work harder.

[BldSwtTrs]

OK.  This increase in usage is so bullish.

You know if you think about it, transactions on a chain are very uniquely influenced by the design of that asset.  It's not just all equal. The design and parameters of the asset create all kinds of downstream incentives, etc.

For example:

BTC: Has the small block strategy has put a functional cap on BTC's transaction volume and that has a direct impact on transaction fees.  This creates all kinds of incentives for users that do not exist on chains without a limit, or with not enough use to matter.  Transaction batching, the growing importance of trusted third parties, layer two incentives etc.  All unique to this chain still.  Also, the VAST majority of transactions on the BTC chain are 100% value focused, but not all.

ETH: Completely different.  ETH gets moved around with all ERC20 transactions.  So it's basically just constant transaction fees.  No limits mean no need to make things efficient.  The ETH philosophy is use resources without regard to cost strategy.  So that network can get congested AND expensive, and the bloated blockchain will either break ETH or centralize it in the end, and if it continues to be used people will just have to accept that.  ETH has more transactions than any chain, because it is basically involved n every transaction for every child token that is available. (I really think it is just a nightmare.)

BSV: The ultimate big block chain that isn't ETH, lol.  This chain is actually incentivizing making as many transactions as possible just to show that it can, and in my opinion ultimately centralizes.  They are actively spamming the chain constantly to support the narrative, or if you are a believer do proof of concept.  Most of what is going on the blockchain is (well there's a lot of wash transactions...) data storage.  So you are getting high transactions with high block sizes.  The central parties involved with this chain are incentivized to make transactions purely for show.  Gigamegs are core to it's narrative.

XMR: No blocksize limit, but ONLY transactional.  All of Monero's volume is value transfer.  But here's Monero's interesting twist.  We can't know very much about what happens in a particular transaction, but only that it happened.  The baked in layer 1 privacy, along with the flexible block size limits changes incentives slightly.  There is absolutely ZERO incentive to transact on the Monero blockchain for any reason but ONE.  I would not think anyone would be inflating blocksize/tx volume to try to prove a point ala BSV.  And I am not aware of any projects as of yet that would use the chain for something else, sort of like counterparty or blockstack on BTC,  or all of ETH.

So.....

We can be fairly certain that all of Monero's transaction volume is real and organic.  There is no incentive for anyone to pay for a transaction other than to move XMR. So people are actually USING the coin.  AND along with only a handful of crypto tokens aside from BTC we know that XMR is being used in real world transactions.  

This means the increased volume can only be two things that I can think of:

Increased real world use as a money.
Increased positions being taken (or liquidated) by speculators.

Like I said... this is incredibly bullish fundamentally.  

We are here.

Nice post, sir.
I like the value versus data framework. BTC and XMR's transactions are value, BSV's are data. ETH is somewhere in between. However, taking a longer term perspective, value is just a subcase of data. Value is just a special kind of data.

I think not enough people are taking BSV seriously. Transactions on Bitcoin in 2009-2012 could be classified as "spam" by today standards (think SatoshiDice...). Transactions on BSV are not necessarily made to prove a point, people and corporations are just experimenting with it.

Big blocks is the only scaling strategy that appears to work, BTC and ETH do not scale. Both BSV and XMR have adopted it, they are the only two blockchains that actually scale.
And BSV and XMR are the only two blockchains that have a use case that does not overlap (transparency versus opacity). Because, since value is a special case of data, everything you do on BTC and ETH, you can theoretically do that on BSV as well. Only the use case of XMR (opaque value) does not overlap with BSV reach.

[cAPSLOCK]

There is no incentive for anyone to pay for a transaction other than to move XMR.

I believe most of the transaction volume growth is organic, however, this statement is not strictly true. The privacy features of XMR provide incentive for attackers to transact in an attempt to weaken the privacy. Lets not forget the IRS bounty on tracking Monero.

Gavin visited the CIA in 2011. The Snowden leaks revealed the NSA was tracking bitcoin users as early as 2013. In 2018 the department of defence ran war game scenarios involving a Bitcoin rebellion.  If the public even becomes aware of these initiatives it is typically years later.

Rest assured the public IRS announcement is not the only well resourced adversary trying to unravel Monero privacy. They are guaranteed to be running nodes, making transactions, monitoring the networking layer, collecting metadata, and tracking outputs.

This is a tremendous point.  And correct.  And oversight on my part.  But still bullish really...  because why spend the time and money if it is not worth it.