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[dutchlincoln]

As I edited my post above:

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.
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Avarage of past year: 85,6175%

Math fail.
Average for the past year including incomplete November but including December (as you did) is 97% luck
Found 200 Expected 206.53

i just took the average of each month. Added, and devided, so average is correct i presume.

well anyway: when i look at the block performance, i (me, personally) see that theaverage of the past 2 year is 96,68%
Oh, its great that the performance was outrageausly good in 2015, but what good does it do for the current miners? When you calculate the performance from day1 it might be 101,49% indeed, but the past 2 years it didn't, and it seems to be declining only... Last year:92,65% so, thats everyone that started in november 2017, right? (60 weeks average...)

i dont want to throw mud or anything, dont get me wrong. (i didnt start the numbers actually, in respect to Kanopool...)

[1714150233]

1714150233

[1714150233]

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[1714150233]

1714150233

[dutchlincoln]

Now to throw one more point into this
You CAN average months if you are looking at the PAPPS% number since that is average reward for the month.

So using the months listed on the web site:
2018 November… 53.92%
2018 October 84.93%
2018 September 134.59%
2018 August 95.93%
2018 July 105.36%
2018 June 87.48%
2018 May 99.26%
2018 April 101.19%
2018 March 144.89%
2018 February 44.93%
2018 January 152.40%
2017 December 127.65%

So the average month PAPPS% is 102.7% PPS rewarded
(including November so far)

Right is right and wrong is wrong: Calculated it, and true as it can be, i admit.
I just looked at luck.



(this, by the way, is what i appreciate about you personally. Thx.)




i'm working on some extra hash. I might add it again. I'll consider. 

[kano]

As I edited my post above:

.
.
.

Avarage of past year: 85,6175%

Math fail.
Average for the past year including incomplete November but including December (as you did) is 97% luck
Found 200 Expected 206.53

i just took the average of each month. Added, and devided, so average is correct i presume.

well anyway: when i look at the block performance, i (me, personally) see that theaverage of the past 2 year is 96,68%
Oh, its great that the performance was outrageausly good in 2015, but what good does it do for the current miners? When you calculate the performance from day1 it might be 101,49% indeed, but the past 2 years it didn't, and it seems to be declining only... Last year:92,65% so, thats everyone that started in november 2017, right? (60 weeks average...)

i dont want to throw mud or anything, dont get me wrong. (i didnt start the numbers actually, in respect to Kanopool...)

So why 2.2 years?
Why not the last 12 months (as displayed)?
Or the last 4 years?

Saying a 2.2 year average reflects what happens now is making the well known incorrect assumption that mining history affects the mining future.
In fact to look at it in an ever worse light - this month is terrible so far - 54% luck - so why is it worse than the 2.2 year history?
Answer: coz it's random

You are also making a completely incorrect statement in there
"but the past 2 years it didn't, and it seems to be declining only"
No it isn't - yes you can choose results to make it look that way, but no it isn't.

The range you chose starts with the month of the worst 2 blocks of all time on the pool (last November) and ends with the (so far incomplete) month of the worst luck ever on the pool - this November.
That's commonly called rigging the results

Luck goes up and down - if you select results to show based exactly on when luck is worst - then yep you can show bad luck for any pool.

[HerbPean]

Soooooo.... We are having bad luck...

I can understand some are leaving because they cannot afford to pay the bills from month to month in coins since their army is just to big to sustain it with the current BTC price and we are having shit luck. ( )
You need something more stable... it's fine BUT if you are leaving only because we are having bad luck... well I have news for you...

I will be there for the long green streak !

Mine on  

[BSGMiner]

Hoo-boy! Averages of averages, strategic sampling, etc...

Oh, man, I'm gonna revel in the next nice, long, lime green streak!!!

[minergain.com]

Hoo-boy! Averages of averages, strategic sampling, etc...

Oh, man, I'm gonna revel in the next nice, long, lime green streak!!!

And as the 5nd drops day by day, our reward per block just keeps going up.  we are going to be rolling in the rewards when our luck turns green!  I too will be here to collect like the other die hard Kano fans!

[sergw]

I can understand some are leaving because they cannot afford to pay the bills from month to month in coins since their army is just to big to sustain it with the current BTC price and we are having shit luck. ( )
You need something more stable...

this is the very case. you need to pay the bill or switch off your rigs.

[MoparMiningLLC]

eh... I just noticed that my miners have not been mining since Monday on Kano pool... I have been so busy at work and all that I have not even gone out to check the miners smh.... I am heading there after work to see what the issue is... I cannot remote into the pc there atm so my guess is the breaker must have tripped. I really hope we dont get a block now until I ramp back up!

[Experimenter]

I really hope we dont get a block now until I ramp back up!

I wouldn't mind if we get one now, and then some more to support your ramp up!

[Pecker]

Oh, man, I'm gonna revel in the next nice, long, lime green streak!!!
[/quote]
And as the 5nd drops day by day, our reward per block just keeps going up.  we are going to be rolling in the rewards when our luck turns green!  I too will be here to collect like the other die hard Kano fans!
[/quote]

COUNT ME IN ON THAT AS WELL!

MINE ON KANO!

PS>> I don't even check my earnings that much anymore...I am in long term and as long as my miners are running and mining on Kano I know I am good.  HODL !!

[jimbocuzzi]

Last chance on the bitmain coupons.

[NomadGroup]

The difficulty soon will drop to what it was in like June and hopefully the big miners will be able to come back into the business. 

Guys i have like 75 $50 coupons if anyone is interested pm me, just got an email from Bitmain I think they expire tonight.

[BSGMiner]

...hopefully the big miners will be able to come back into the business.  

No, thanks! I'm liking the prospect of big weekly rewards. Saves transaction fees when consolidating payouts and keeps me from refreshing the webpage all day to see if we got another.

Weekly with bursts of triplets is just fine with me!

MINE ON!!!

[NomadGroup]

[quote  author=NomadGroup link=topic=789369.msg48331101#msg48331101 date=1543518792]
...hopefully the big miners will be able to come back into the business.  

No, thanks! I'm liking the prospect of big weekly rewards. Saves transaction fees when consolidating payouts and keeps me from refreshing the webpage all day to see if we got another.

Weekly with bursts of triplets is just fine with me!

MINE ON!!!
[/quote]

Weekly?  Lol    you’ll be lucky to get couple a month if all big miners leave, if that.

[BSGMiner]

...hopefully the big miners will be able to come back into the business.  

No, thanks! I'm liking the prospect of big weekly rewards. Saves transaction fees when consolidating payouts and keeps me from refreshing the webpage all day to see if we got another.

Weekly with bursts of triplets is just fine with me!

Weekly?  Lol   you’ll be lucky to get couple a month if all big miners leave, if that.

Sorry, we're currently at "7days 2hr 40min 9sec" (46.51PH/s).

Not sure what your definition of "big miners" is, but for us to only get a couple a month, we'd have to be at 22PH/s to get a block every "15days 0hr 48min 36sec" according to the http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php BTC calculator.

Preferably we get more than one per diff change, but as they say, "whatayagonnado?"

[NomadGroup]

...hopefully the big miners will be able to come back into the business.  

No, thanks! I'm liking the prospect of big weekly rewards. Saves transaction fees when consolidating payouts and keeps me from refreshing the webpage all day to see if we got another.

Weekly with bursts of triplets is just fine with me!

Weekly?  Lol   you’ll be lucky to get couple a month if all big miners leave, if that.

Sorry, we're currently at "7days 2hr 40min 9sec" (46.51PH/s).

Not sure what your definition of "big miners" is, but for us to only get a couple a month, we'd have to be at 22PH/s to get a block every "15days 0hr 48min 36sec" according to the http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php BTC calculator.

Preferably we get more than one per diff change, but as they say, "whatayagonnado?"

For this pool, I would say that anyone that has more than  around 500TH can be considered a big miner at this moment, so if you go to stats page that’s around top 15 miners.  If they quit, that is where the pool will be at is approximately 20 something PH. 

But the miners that pay more than 5-6 cents per kilowatt can start quitting (although I’m not even sure that if you pay 6 cents at this moment, the hardware can pay off what it uses), having even smaller amount of TH, let’s say starting 50TH.  Just because probably most people simply can’t pay to get BTC and have to pay for getting it on top of that, it would be easier and cheaper to just buy the BTC, without the worries about the luck.

Miners are used to mine BTC and get a profit on top of that minus out the electricity bill.

So if things don’t change soon, the only ones that will be mining are guys that have lots of money to just throw away for electricity (and hope that BTC will cost a million dollars in the future) or the guys that simply don’t pay their electric bill and know a way to steal the electricity.  Or the Chinese that produce the hardware and pay little to power up their machines, may also be able to stay afloat.

Hopefully the difficulty will drop by a lot soon!  If I remember correctly it should go down about 10% in a few days or so.  And I’m not even sure if that will help to stay afloat, for the most.

[BSGMiner]

For this pool, I would say that anyone that has more than  around 500TH can be considered a big miner at this moment, so if you go to stats page that’s around top 15 miners.  If they quit, that is where the pool will be at is approximately 20 something PH.  

But the miners that pay more than 5-6 cents per kilowatt can start quitting (although I’m not even sure that if you pay 6 cents at this moment, the hardware can pay off what it uses), having even smaller amount of TH, let’s say starting 50TH.  Just because probably most people simply can’t pay to get BTC and have to pay for getting it on top of that, it would be easier and cheaper to just buy the BTC, without the worries about the luck.

Miners are used to mine BTC and get a profit on top of that minus out the electricity bill.

So if things don’t change soon, the only ones that will be mining are guys that have lots of money to just throw away for electricity (and hope that BTC will cost a million dollars in the future) or the guys that simply don’t pay their electric bill and know a way to steal the electricity.  Or the Chinese that produce the hardware and pay little to power up their machines, may also be able to stay afloat.

Hopefully the difficulty will drop by a lot soon!  If I remember correctly it should go down about 10% in a few days or so.  And I’m not even sure if that will help to stay afloat, for the most.

That seems to be a pretty fair assessment. I can only speak for myself, which puts me in the mine-at-less-than-break-even-and-wish-upon-a-star category.

[NomadGroup]

For this pool, I would say that anyone that has more than  around 500TH can be considered a big miner at this moment, so if you go to stats page that’s around top 15 miners.  If they quit, that is where the pool will be at is approximately 20 something PH.  

But the miners that pay more than 5-6 cents per kilowatt can start quitting (although I’m not even sure that if you pay 6 cents at this moment, the hardware can pay off what it uses), having even smaller amount of TH, let’s say starting 50TH.  Just because probably most people simply can’t pay to get BTC and have to pay for getting it on top of that, it would be easier and cheaper to just buy the BTC, without the worries about the luck.

Miners are used to mine BTC and get a profit on top of that minus out the electricity bill.

So if things don’t change soon, the only ones that will be mining are guys that have lots of money to just throw away for electricity (and hope that BTC will cost a million dollars in the future) or the guys that simply don’t pay their electric bill and know a way to steal the electricity.  Or the Chinese that produce the hardware and pay little to power up their machines, may also be able to stay afloat.

Hopefully the difficulty will drop by a lot soon!  If I remember correctly it should go down about 10% in a few days or so.  And I’m not even sure if that will help to stay afloat, for the most.

That seems to be a pretty fair assessment. I can only speak for myself, which puts me in the mine-at-less-than-break-even-and-wish-upon-a-star category.

Let’s just hope for the best!  That the BTC will go up and the difficulty go down! 

[Steamtyme]

Let’s just hope for the best!  That the BTC will go up and the difficulty go down! 

Unfortunately that window only lasts about 2016 Blocks. As soon as the price rises the Diff will follow. If it's slow enough it'll buy us some more time with a lower Diff maybe 2 or 3 retarget periods, but last year is a good example of how fast Diff can rise if the price increases quickly. Only this time there won't be a bottleneck on hardware, there is an ample supply just waiting to be purchased or turned back on.

In the meantime I'll happily sit here partially heating the house with some 741's, collecting some lower Diff coins for a better tomorrow.

Would have been nice to snag one last block before we lost a bunch of Hashpower but I'm looking forward to their 5ND running out.

[qrnode]

Let’s just hope for the best!  That the BTC will go up and the difficulty go down! 

@NomadGroup when are you coming back? Now would be a good time.