[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[TrueCryptonaire]

How many bitcoins are completely out of circulation (loss of private keys) currently?
How eager are the large holders to redistribute their bitcoins for taxable fiat assets?
What happens to the price if the supply is limited but the demand is increasing thanks to bullish trend?
The escalation might be pretty fast (matter of months rather than years when it really starts).

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[bit1]

How many bitcoins are completely out of circulation (loss of private keys) currently?
How eager are the large holders to redistribute their bitcoins for taxable fiat assets?
What happens to the price if the supply is limited but the demand is increasing thanks to bullish trend?
The escalation might be pretty fast (matter of months rather than years when it really starts).

Allows please extend question, How many BTC(or priv key) are lost every day?

[CoinCidental]

The way technology moves and the general speed of innovation, this will happen within 5-10 years, if that. By 2020 we will know what we have here, my guess in 2017-2018.

Credit cards came out in the 1960s ,a lot of older people still prefer to pay with cash
Go to southeast Asia or another part of the 3rd world and you will notice that only the largest retailers accept payments via card
Most shops don't have  card terminal and the ones that do would ask you for another 3% on top of the cash price if you want to use a card so no, Bitcoin will certainly not reach its full potential in 2017-2018....

That's not to say that it can't get to 5000-10,000 by 2020 halving because the sky is the limit for this kind of stuff...

But Just like plastic cards, it will be a long long time before everyone is aware of it

[quake313]

The way technology moves and the general speed of innovation, this will happen within 5-10 years, if that. By 2020 we will know what we have here, my guess in 2017-2018.

Credit cards came out in the 1960s ,a lot of older people still prefer to pay with cash
Go to southeast Asia or another part of the 3rd world and you will notice that only the largest retailers accept payments via card
Most shops don't have  card terminal and the ones that do would ask you for another 3% on top of the cash price if you want to use a card so no, Bitcoin will certainly not reach its full potential in 2017-2018....

That's not to say that it can't get to 5000-10,000 by 2020 halving because the sky is the limit for this kind of stuff...

But Just like plastic cards, it will be a long long time before everyone is aware of it

I doubt in 5 years we will see $500k. Maybe in 20-30 years but who really knows. It is possible some billionaires decide BTC is the future and start buying it up or the Chinese create a BTC Cartel and manipulate the price much like the diamond industry. I will not hold my breadth though for a huge increase anytime soon, although I can see 3-5k in the near future.

[Valerian77]

500k$ is a huge number
that would be around 10 Trillion market capitalization
but compared to gold which is around 8 Trillion now it seems not to be impossible
to reach that number something must change
that is not the mass adoption as payment system and it has nothing to do with intrinsic value (which is very little for gold)
but the trust base which is the number of people who hold Bitcoin must grow in dimensions
since we see daily news about Bitcoin already now most people have heard about it
but what is needed is that it becomes clear and normal to have trust into Bitcoins sustaining value
if that happens it does not seem unlikely that Bitcoins price make a big jump in a short time
it is not impossible or unlikely that some very rich people see that potential and simply start to buy big amounts
the bigger the economic risk in traditional asset classes becomes the more likely this szenario will be
the last asset class which seems to be safe up to now (gold aside) is paper money because governments back it up
and this guarantee is getting weaker now in insecure economic environments - too much money has been printed
the public debt of the USA has been doubled between 2008 and 2016 up to over 19 Trillion USD - just in 8 years!!
and on top the world wide financial derivative market has a volume of over 700 Trillion USD
as long as nobody throws the first stone public debts will grow more and so do the financial derivatives
but if this system is being shaken then it will fall apart like domino stones

we can see these two developments every day:
 - trust base in Bitcoin grows
 - word wide financial system is getting weaker

so when will the tipping point being reached?

[crairezx20]

The bitcoin price is gradually decreases but i think the price of bitcoin will still increase  in this week.. just relay only in bitcoin price and i think we can still making a profit..

[hv_]

I guess this needs to be recalced a bit including some externalities like scaling / political issues + other alts, blockchains and hyperledgers steeling parts of the show ...

[DeathAngel]

I guess this needs to be recalced a bit including some externalities like scaling / political issues + other alts, blockchains and hyperledgers steeling parts of the show ...

Bro I think the OP was smoking funny stuff when he made that price prediction. I am actually bullish regarding bitcoin but myself, I'd be extremely happy to see $1,000 value per bitcoin in thr next 12 months at some point.

I'd see that as good.

[hv_]

I guess this needs to be recalced a bit including some externalities like scaling / political issues + other alts, blockchains and hyperledgers steeling parts of the show ...

Bro I think the OP was smoking funny stuff when he made that price prediction. I am actually bullish regarding bitcoin but myself, I'd be extremely happy to see $1,000 value per bitcoin in thr next 12 months at some point.

I'd see that as good.

Kind of - but it's the very same fun-smoke like others take to give extreme value to fiat, facebook, whatsapp, twitter or other stuff ...

If bitcoin get's its problems solved and adoption + volatility goes hyperbolic -this prediction IS very conservative like quantum physics & stochastical mechanics can show.

[BitcoinHodler]

it is almost funny to see all these topics about bitcoin price (high price) being active in this board in the past two days, especially this particular one which is also old.

i always say that topics with big price predictions which are unrealistic like 560K$ are the same as FUD topics with the very low price which is also unrealistic like $100 and the same way the other way is not happening this is also not happening and certainly not in 14 months (or 13 if you count from the OP)

[hv_]

it is almost funny to see all these topics about bitcoin price (high price) being active in this board in the past two days, especially this particular one which is also old.

i always say that topics with big price predictions which are unrealistic like 560K$ are the same as FUD topics with the very low price which is also unrealistic like $100 and the same way the other way is not happening this is also not happening and certainly not in 14 months (or 13 if you count from the OP)

I fully understand your point - it looks very odd to say such things.

But pls take a closer look into that one and I hope you see the predictions made as risk manager would calc agnostically - and yes it's pure math - no FUD or position related / biased stuff:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4519139/

[Skjöld]

560 000$ is a too crazy value. It will never happen. I'm even sceptic about 10 000 one day, so 560 000 is definitively a too sweet dream.

[JayJuanGee]

it is almost funny to see all these topics about bitcoin price (high price) being active in this board in the past two days, especially this particular one which is also old.

i always say that topics with big price predictions which are unrealistic like 560K$ are the same as FUD topics with the very low price which is also unrealistic like $100 and the same way the other way is not happening this is also not happening and certainly not in 14 months (or 13 if you count from the OP)

The timeline may be off, but there is no FUD being spread with these kinds of bullish predictions.

Sure, there may be too much attributions and failure to account for some bearish price pressures given to uber bullish predictions, but these kinds of uber bullish predictions are not improbable or impossible, but rather within the realm of possibilities... and developments and adoption do seem to be continuing to go in the right direction to make upwards price explosions even more likely... whether 14 months or 10 years, and whether .00001% or 10% likely, each of us are going to assess the price dynamic in differing ways and give weight to different factors, and in the end, some people are going to be more right than others.  You do not have to completely invest in a $560k scenario in 14 months in order to prepare for the possibility.. and yeah, it would be imprudent to put 100% or 50% of your eggs in that basket when it should not be a 100% or even a 50% scenario that is being described.

[unknown04]

I'm surprised people still entertain this thread. $560,000 ? everyone can be a millionaire by just owning 2 bitcoins.

[wachtwoord]

I'm surprised people still entertain this thread. $560,000 ? everyone can be a millionaire by just owning 2 bitcoins.

Just wait.

[Only Looking]

I'm surprised people still entertain this thread. $560,000 ? everyone can be a millionaire by just owning 2 bitcoins.

Just wait.

Yes. We will see...

[jehst]

$560,000 to 1 MM+ will be the mature value of a bitcoin once it's *the* currency of the internet. *The* destination for offshore wealth storage. *The* currency of outsourcing. Held by all central banks in their reserves alongside the USD, YEN, GBP, and gold. But this will take perhaps 20 years. The idea that this will happen within a few years is pretty nutty IMO. The infrastructure takes time to be built. Hell, it may take another year or two for the Winklevoss ETF to go live.

[Meuh6879]

I'm surprised people still entertain this thread. $560,000 ? everyone can be a millionaire by just owning 2 bitcoins.

Just wait.

[chesthing]

sgbett is one of the biggest retards on this forum. He was so fuckin' stupid he was sending thousands of dollars to Mt Gox, AFTER it stopped trading. Now that's stupid.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm surprised people still entertain this thread. $560,000 ? everyone can be a millionaire by just owning 2 bitcoins.

You are goofy!!!!

What the fuck do you think would happen if everyone tried to own 2 bitcoins? Well, only 10.5 million could accomplish that, at most.

The fact of the matter is that by the time it becomes somewhat clear that bitcoin is going to $560k (that is if it is going to go there), then the price is going to be well upon its way to that point (maybe well in the $50k to $100k territory, and a lot of folks will sell along the way..... so yeah, it is good to get your 2 bitcoin reserve, now and then just hold those in cold storage, and maybe just play around with your other BTC holdings, if you have such will power.

 It is likely not a clear path to $560k per BTC, and not everyone is going to hold onto their coins to become the millionaire or millionaire plus that they would like to become.