[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[Ibian]

everything that can happen does happen
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/12672387-the-quantum-universe

There is a universe where bitcoin is already or will be $560000.
The only question is what is the probability distribution of this event?

Then only that thing happened, because the wave function collapsed.

That's how we were taught. However, the link below provides a different view that, apparently, majority of physicists are now aligned with.
There is no collapse, cat is simply alive in one universe and dead in another.
This has much more appeal to me than the suggestion that the fate of the proverbial cat is decided by a mysterious wave function collapse just as i open the box.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation

So modern pretend-scientists are just now catching up with what anime and marvel comics have taught us for decades? Nice.

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[brg444]

Following this logic, what is the probability do you think that COIN's "IPO" is actually Bitcoin's IPO and that this will be the black swan opening the flood gates?

[lyth0s]

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.


Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

[farfiman]

According to this post by  BurtW it is illogical to get to those prices in this "era" unless electricity becomes mega abundant or mining much more efficient.

A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so.

Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates:

Code:

    Original target     Subsidy   Est Fees  Power % of total world
Era   starting year   BTC/block   BTC/hour     GW power production
--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ------ ----------------
  0            2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 680.40           29.44%
  1            2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 340.20           14.72%
  2            2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 170.10            7.36%
  3            2021  6.25000000 0.00000000  85.05            3.68%
  4            2025  3.12500000 0.00000000  42.53            1.84%
  5            2029  1.56250000 0.00000000  21.26            0.92%
  6            2033  0.78125000 1.31250000  13.61            0.59%
  7            2037  0.39062500 3.65625000  13.61            0.59%
  8            2041  0.19531250 4.82812500  13.61            0.59%
  9            2045  0.09765625 5.41406250  13.61            0.59%

[SmoothCurves]

Your theory sounds crazy but makes sense. Great work!

This graph on trading view suggests a similar outlook, perhaps we'll see near $500k at peak 3: https://www.tradingview.com/v/4vz7szLr/

[fewcoins]

We'll hit 10k any day now.

Bitcoin is super impressive, and everyone and their grandmothers are jumping aboard this rocket.

LOL! Hilarious!!! Let's keep talking about rising prices when BTC has never increased in value since it passed $1,000 ONCE

[sgbett]

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.


Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

Roughly, days.

I explained more fully here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.msg9005672#msg9005672

[sgbett]

We'll hit 10k any day now.

Bitcoin is super impressive, and everyone and their grandmothers are jumping aboard this rocket.

LOL! Hilarious!!! Let's keep talking about rising prices when BTC has never increased in value since it passed $1,000 ONCE

Brilliant, the trolls are trolling each other! Lol

[sgbett]

An epic prediction indeed!

It's soo unbelievable, that it could even be true...

Actually the explanation makes some sense to me.

What doesn't make sense to me is that OP considers that he will exchange Bitcoin for fiat money in this scenario like he has done in the past. Why? Because as more capital pours into Bitcoin, more goods and services will be available for purchase with Bitcoin. So fiat money quickly becomes obsolete (at least for a bitcoiner) in this scenario.

ya.ya.yo!

Hedging because however high it goes, you can't ever discount the probability of it failing. It's formulaic selling though to keep it unemotional x% per y% rise. The downside is capital gains tax :/ How I'd dearly love to be able to get some COIN in my pension!

At the theoretical $560k I would have sold about half my BTC. What I have left in BTC would still be worth about 7 times more than the fiat I had collected

That fiat would probably end up divested in metals & equities.

[Unbelive]

What you say is funny sine, all we need to do is to solve few faucets and then just wait 5 years and we are millionaires. I think that train left long time ago. Almost million people know of BTC. There are Governors, Mayors running with Bitcoin mention in their program. Governments make conferences of BTC, ...

Is just to late for such increase in price anymore. We are much closer to stable price as most of you realize.

[Ibian]

So many newbie experts.

[inca]

What you say is funny sine, all we need to do is to solve few faucets and then just wait 5 years and we are millionaires. I think that train left long time ago. Almost million people know of BTC. There are Governors, Mayors running with Bitcoin mention in their program. Governments make conferences of BTC, ...

Is just to late for such increase in price anymore. We are much closer to stable price as most of you realize.

You think?

Ok what happens if circle gets some air time on prime time US TV in say a month. Prior to that month there is some whale buying or an engineered high volume spurt from the bottom and it gets about in the press that bitcoin has risen by 25% in a week. There is a 60 minutes episode on bitcoin being limited and scarce and unprintable or something. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that 1-2 million people sign up for circle de novo and buy say 0.5 to a whole bitcoin each?

What about if we amble around instead slowly between 350 and 600 for the next six months and the ETF is approved. Globally is it a stretch to say that 1-2 million people might invest, including hedge funds wanting some assymetric speculative bets.

If you want to see what 500 million dollars of buying would do to the price have a look at the order books. Now imagine some of that buying taking place with all the speculators on this forum buying and leveraging the hell out of it simultaneously.

It isn't hard to see that bitcoin could 'pop' very easily and very quickly under the correct circumstances. Stable? Pah.

[Odalv]

If price is 76k and rising, why would everyone be selling all their coins every day?

Because it is profitable ? You can buy more miners and mine more coins tomorrow.

[fewcoins]

Oh please, everyone who cares or would invest already know about bitcoin & it has been on TV many times... Not only from the reports but from companies like overstock.com (who show the symbol in every commercial)

So someone please tell me where all this new money will come from??? The broke retail investors? LMFAO You think a huge pop will happen ffrom that??? EVEN IF IT SOMEHOW DID POP... You would ALL sell your coins and it will crash the market again. This is a illiquid market scam, look up pump and dumps

[inca]

Oh please, everyone who cares or would invest already know about bitcoin & it has been on TV many times... Not only from the reports but from companies like overstock.com (who show the symbol in every commercial)

So someone please tell me where all this new money will come from??? The broke retail investors? LMFAO You think a huge pop will happen ffrom that??? EVEN IF IT SOMEHOW DID POP... You would ALL sell your coins and it will crash the market again. This is a illiquid market scam, look up pump and dumps

Broke retail investors? The stock indices are hitting all time highs off cheap central bank printed cash. Who knows where the next influx of cash comes from. But it got a whole lot easier yesterday.

[fewcoins]

An epic prediction indeed!

It's soo unbelievable, that it could even be true...

Actually the explanation makes some sense to me.

What doesn't make sense to me is that OP considers that he will exchange Bitcoin for fiat money in this scenario like he has done in the past. Why? Because as more capital pours into Bitcoin, more goods and services will be available for purchase with Bitcoin. So fiat money quickly becomes obsolete (at least for a bitcoiner) in this scenario.

ya.ya.yo!

Hedging because however high it goes, you can't ever discount the probability of it failing. It's formulaic selling though to keep it unemotional x% per y% rise. The downside is capital gains tax :/ How I'd dearly love to be able to get some COIN in my pension!

At the theoretical $560k I would have sold about half my BTC. What I have left in BTC would still be worth about 7 times more than the fiat I had collected

That fiat would probably end up divested in metals & equities.

The point is "they" won't let fiat die & they will make sure to crash BTC into nothing before it even becomes competition... Don't you realize how illiquid this market is??? You're acting like you found gold when you're really buying scraps off of forex trading whales who entered this market just to crash it & make money. Think about what a ultimate troll you are walking around acting like you found the next best thing, convincing other people to throw their hard earned money at it, when you don't know who is even involved in this market or why the price was near 1,200 let alone know who even created all this madness. Everyone here will lose all of their money because of your misguided "leadership"

COME WITH FACTS OR STOP RANTING ABOUT HOW WONDERFUL BTC IS IN THEORY!

[Ibian]

Can't tell if troll or genuinely confused newbie. So I'll just keep this short.

Bitcoin is better than gold. The only thing gold has on bitcoin is that it's shiny.

It doesn't matter who made it.

[inca]

An epic prediction indeed!

It's soo unbelievable, that it could even be true...

Actually the explanation makes some sense to me.

What doesn't make sense to me is that OP considers that he will exchange Bitcoin for fiat money in this scenario like he has done in the past. Why? Because as more capital pours into Bitcoin, more goods and services will be available for purchase with Bitcoin. So fiat money quickly becomes obsolete (at least for a bitcoiner) in this scenario.

ya.ya.yo!

Hedging because however high it goes, you can't ever discount the probability of it failing. It's formulaic selling though to keep it unemotional x% per y% rise. The downside is capital gains tax :/ How I'd dearly love to be able to get some COIN in my pension!

At the theoretical $560k I would have sold about half my BTC. What I have left in BTC would still be worth about 7 times more than the fiat I had collected

That fiat would probably end up divested in metals & equities.

The point is "they" won't let fiat die & they will make sure to crash BTC into nothing before it even becomes competition... Don't you realize how illiquid this market is??? You're acting like you found gold when you're really buying scraps off of forex trading whales who entered this market just to crash it & make money. Think about what a ultimate troll you are walking around acting like you found the next best thing, convincing other people to throw their hard earned money at it, when you don't know who is even involved in this market or why the price was near 1,200 let alone know who even created all this madness. Everyone here will lose all of their money because of your misguided "leadership"

COME WITH FACTS OR STOP RANTING ABOUT HOW WONDERFUL BTC IS IN THEORY!

The only person ranting is you. The higher the price moves.

[Unbelive]

So many newbie experts.

But he is a Hero Member not newbie.

[mskryxz]

Wish 14 months would pass by already!