[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[cuddaloreappu]

Lets just wish away in this thread! Maybe it will hit a million dollars next month!!! & we might even see a unicorn or something!

I've seen a unicorn around these parts.

I heard that Bigfoot is buying BTC.

And the illuminati of china have agreed upon to eat the massive sell walls

[1714150666]

1714150666

[zimmah]

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.




Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

You misunderstood the purpose of this graph.

It's not a prediction to what the price does exactly and when exactly that happens. It's just an illustration that shows how bitcoin behaves in general.

So you can know what to expect, but not when and how high exactly.

[fewcoins]

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.




Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

You misunderstood the purpose of this graph.

It's not a prediction to what the price does exactly and when exactly that happens. It's just an illustration that shows how bitcoin behaves in general.

So you can know what to expect, but not when and how high exactly.

Can we expect crash & burn?? Because your chart doesn't show that!

[sgbett]

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

[fewcoins]

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is 

[lyth0s]

sgbett please put timestamps on your x-axis or please inform me of what function of time they are.

Bolded and repeated so my post hopefully wont' go unnoticed again.

Roughly, days.

I explained more fully here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.msg9005672#msg9005672

Whoops! I apologize for somehow missing your response. So if we call the peak around November, 2013 (910 days on the log chart) then add 11 months (330 days) that would put us at 1240 which is essentially the low for the current cycle prior to another growth spurt? At least on that one set of inputs you had that is. Or is the x-axis so abstract that it is simply to illustrate the cyclical nature of potential up's/down's of price over a hypothetical time period?

Thanks for the post man

[Chuckee]

You guys are dumb if you actually believe the OP.

It's all classic con man smoke and mirrors... he knows that there are many impressionable people on these forums who are new to trading and think there's some kind of magic formula for reading the markets. That's why he throws around all the mathematical terminology, hoping to wow you into buying his bitcoin bag.

I'm going to warn you all one last time... It's clear now that bitcoin rallied last fall because it was the culmination of years of speculation, leading to the first major news of merchant adoption. Ever since 2009, bitcoin enthusiasts dreamed of that day, and it just so happened to coincide with attention from china and the US congressional hearings.

Merchant adoption happened, and what followed was a non-existent demand from the mainstream. There needs to be actual utility for the price to rise again. There could be short-term, false recoveries in the coming months, but they will fail to make it far because the fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin is still difficult to hold and secure, it costs money to convert from fiat and back, and aside from online gambling, there is no incentive to buy them.

[sgbett]

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is 

The lowest point recently was 365.2 being the most recent bottom

short term (hourly) sellers are running out of steam

long term (3-day) nowhere near the previous low of 339.8

It could still go either way, but the bear case is hardly conclusive right now. Your horizon is so short though, that you seem to forget we have already been this low, this is not new ground. This is trading in a range still.

If we go below 340, then you might have a point. First you have to get below 365.2 though. Until then trading in a range means sometimes we go up (like how we went from 340 to 660 may/june time) and it goes down.

[sgbett]

You guys are dumb if you actually believe the OP.

It's all classic con man smoke and mirrors... he knows that there are many impressionable people on these forums who are new to trading and think there's some kind of magic formula for reading the markets. That's why he throws around all the mathematical terminology, hoping to wow you into buying his bitcoin bag.

I'm going to warn you all one last time... It's clear now that bitcoin rallied last fall because it was the culmination of years of speculation, leading to the first major news of merchant adoption. Ever since 2009, bitcoin enthusiasts dreamed of that day, and it just so happened to coincide with attention from china and the US congressional hearings.

Merchant adoption happened, and what followed was a non-existent demand from the mainstream. There needs to be actual utility for the price to rise again. There could be short-term, false recoveries in the coming months, but they will fail to make it far because the fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin is still difficult to hold and secure, it costs money to convert from fiat and back, and aside from online gambling, there is no incentive to buy them.

I throw around charts to show the future is uncertain. You fail to read and comprehend what I am saying, either because you are stupid or because you have an agenda, and attempt to rephrase what I am saying as encouragement to buy.

Then you go on to encourage people to sell.

It is you who is trying to affect impressionable people Chuckee. Lying through omission, stating opinion as fact. Its classic trolling, man.

[Bitmore]

You guys are dumb if you actually believe the OP.

It's all classic con man smoke and mirrors... he knows that there are many impressionable people on these forums who are new to trading and think there's some kind of magic formula for reading the markets. That's why he throws around all the mathematical terminology, hoping to wow you into buying his bitcoin bag.

I'm going to warn you all one last time... It's clear now that bitcoin rallied last fall because it was the culmination of years of speculation, leading to the first major news of merchant adoption. Ever since 2009, bitcoin enthusiasts dreamed of that day, and it just so happened to coincide with attention from china and the US congressional hearings.

Merchant adoption happened, and what followed was a non-existent demand from the mainstream. There needs to be actual utility for the price to rise again. There could be short-term, false recoveries in the coming months, but they will fail to make it far because the fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin is still difficult to hold and secure, it costs money to convert from fiat and back, and aside from online gambling, there is no incentive to buy them.

I throw around charts to show the future is uncertain. You fail to read and comprehend what I am saying, either because you are stupid or because you have an agenda, and attempt to rephrase what I am saying as encouragement to buy.

Then you go on to encourage people to sell.

It is you who is trying to affect impressionable people Chuckee. Lying through omission, stating opinion as fact. Its classic trolling, man.

Chuckee might have somewhat more credibility if he didn't resort to the Ad Hom attack as a default.  I just don't engage in those discussions because that resort is proof of a lost argument.  As such I suspect the agenda of WHY someone would even waste his/her life on a message board trying to make such negative arguments.  Sorry Chuckee, but my bullshit-o-meter is pegged when I see these tactics in argument.

Sgbett on the other hand, has reflective thoughts that are not only proving research he has done, but cautions that even he can be wrong.  That makes me think he is credible. 

[wobber]

A+ post which is over the head of 99% of the posters on this board. Every time the variance is roughly of the same magnitude though (depending on how you count exactly).

--> 10^0 = $1     
--> 10^1 = $10 (*3)
--> 10^2 = $100 (*3)
--> 10^3 = $1000

So I'm expecting the next one to go to 10^4. Remember that the 10^2 and 10^3 growth spurts were only only 6 months apart though. The jump to 10^5 (order of magnitude $100,000) will seem massive if it's also in such a short time (but variance wise it will be the same).

Of course price can go to near or above 10,000 USD. But the question is when. Many cannot wait 5 years for that to happen.

[Chuckee]

Chuckee might have somewhat more credibility if he didn't resort to the Ad Hom attack as a default.  I just don't engage in those discussions because that resort is proof of a lost argument.  As such I suspect the agenda of WHY someone would even waste his/her life on a message board trying to make such negative arguments.  Sorry Chuckee, but my bullshit-o-meter is pegged when I see these tactics in argument.

Sgbett on the other hand, has reflective thoughts that are not only proving research he has done, but cautions that even he can be wrong.  That makes me think he is credible.  

He cautions that he can be wrong, because he will be wrong, and then several months from now he'll continue on posting bullshit charts about bitcoin reaching a bazillion dollars by 2016, because if anyone calls him out on it, he can say, "Hey, I warned you that it could be wrong!"

Of course though, nobody will call him out on it because this forum is frequented by simpletons with short term memories who do no independent research and are inclined to believe any post that has fancy graphs and talk of easy money.

I just don't engage in those discussions because that resort is proof of a lost argument

How have I lost any argument? I've been right about the price ever since I began warning you all about the continuing downtrend. sgbett and the other bulls here have been wrong consistently since the beginning of this year.

When I smell bullshit, I call it out. Sorry if that offends your sensibilities, but somebody needs to state the obvious.

[sgbett]

Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.

[Chuckee]

Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.

I've been wrong in the past, and I've lost moneys on ill advised investments. But from loss comes growth, so I've certainly paid my dues.

It's completely your right to post your predictions here, since this is the speculation forum, afterall. Good luck to you, and I hope you're right. I just don't think it's going to happen though, and that's because of the bitcoin fundamentals. I think people here are all too eager to extrapolate past performance into future performance, but the fundamentals tell a different story.

Of course, that doesn't bode well for the holders, so of course they don't want to hear it.

[brg444]

Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.

I've been wrong in the past, and I've lost moneys on ill advised investments. But from loss comes growth, so I've certainly paid my dues.

It's completely your right to post your predictions here, since this is the speculation forum, afterall. Good luck to you, and I hope you're right. I just don't think it's going to happen though, and that's because of the bitcoin fundamentals. I think people here are all too eager to extrapolate past performance into future performance, but the fundamentals tell a different story.

Of course, that doesn't bode well for the holders, so of course they don't want to hear it.

And what fundamentals would that be? Because everyone I know of keep growing exponentially. Hash rate, unique number of wallets created, network transactions, merchant adoption, ATMs.

The only thing people like you have going for you is the price.

It literally is the ONLY thing you trolls can hang on to. When this bear market ends, you are all going to be nowhere to be seen

[Newbie1022]

Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.

I've been wrong in the past, and I've lost moneys on ill advised investments. But from loss comes growth, so I've certainly paid my dues.

It's completely your right to post your predictions here, since this is the speculation forum, afterall. Good luck to you, and I hope you're right. I just don't think it's going to happen though, and that's because of the bitcoin fundamentals. I think people here are all too eager to extrapolate past performance into future performance, but the fundamentals tell a different story.

Of course, that doesn't bode well for the holders, so of course they don't want to hear it.

And what fundamentals would that be? Because everyone I know of keep growing exponentially. Hash rate, unique number of wallets created, network transactions, merchant adoption, ATMs.

The only thing people like you have going for you is the price.

It literally is the ONLY thing you trolls can hang on to.

Yes, stock investors, for example, are totally trolls because all they care about is the price. You aren't serious, are you? Please tell me that you are spending somebody else's money so carelessly.

[brg444]

Maybe one day you will realise that if you are right all the time you never learn anything.

I've been wrong in the past, and I've lost moneys on ill advised investments. But from loss comes growth, so I've certainly paid my dues.

It's completely your right to post your predictions here, since this is the speculation forum, afterall. Good luck to you, and I hope you're right. I just don't think it's going to happen though, and that's because of the bitcoin fundamentals. I think people here are all too eager to extrapolate past performance into future performance, but the fundamentals tell a different story.

Of course, that doesn't bode well for the holders, so of course they don't want to hear it.

And what fundamentals would that be? Because everyone I know of keep growing exponentially. Hash rate, unique number of wallets created, network transactions, merchant adoption, ATMs.

The only thing people like you have going for you is the price.

It literally is the ONLY thing you trolls can hang on to.

Yes, stock investors, for example, are totally trolls because all they care about is the price. You aren't serious, are you? Please tell me that you are spending somebody else's money so carelessly.

Bitcoin is not the stock market.

This troll argument is that Bitcoin's fundamentals don't cut it when in fact they are stronger than ever.

If you believe the price on a few exchanges is representative of Bitcoin's infrastructure and fundamentals, then I'm afraid I can't help you.

[Chuckee]

And what fundamentals would that be? Because everyone I know of keep growing exponentially. Hash rate, unique number of wallets created, network transactions, merchant adoption, ATMs.

The only thing people like you have going for you is the price.

It literally is the ONLY thing you trolls can hang on to. When this bear market ends, you are all going to be nowhere to be seen

Wallet creation means nothing, I've created hundreds of wallets, and I just played with bitcoin for a bit as a small time interest. People can make as many as they want, and routinely do for security principles.

ATMs, merchant adoption don't really matter either. These are just savvy people trying to make a quick buck off of the public.

The only true fundamental that matters is the fact that bitcoin does not solve any problems for average people. Nobody is discovering bitcoin and then buying some so that they can go shopping online. There is no point!

Some of you believe that speculation alone can keep driving it up, but without real utility, that will eventually fail. I think we have already reached that point, since there is nothing more to really look forward to. Merchant adoption has already happened, and all it has done is cause selling pressure. The ETF will probably be denied, but even it it does go live eventually, it doesn't matter. It's just one more method (one of many) to buy bitcoin. It's not an innovation, just another way to lure in "greater fools".

[xDan]

Wallet creation means nothing, I've created hundreds of wallets, and I just played with bitcoin for a bit as a small time interest. People can make as many as they want, and routinely do for security principles.

variation over time obviously means *something*

ATMs, circle etc at least are a necessary part of infrastructure should anybody ever decide to use Bitcoin. A reduction in barriers to entry.

The only true fundamental that matters is the fact that bitcoin does not solve any problems for average people.

in the 1990s, the www did nothing for average people either.

I could list problems it solves and opportunities it creates, but it's boring doing that for the hundredth time. You would be correct in saying they do not all exist *yet*. But I'm betting with my wallet that they will within a few years.

[jcoin200]

Wallet creation means nothing, I've created hundreds of wallets, and I just played with bitcoin for a bit as a small time interest. People can make as many as they want, and routinely do for security principles.

variation over time obviously means *something*

ATMs, circle etc at least are a necessary part of infrastructure should anybody ever decide to use Bitcoin. A reduction in barriers to entry.

The only true fundamental that matters is the fact that bitcoin does not solve any problems for average people.

in the 1990s, the www did nothing for average people either.

I could list problems it solves and opportunities it creates, but it's boring doing that for the hundredth time. You would be correct in saying they do not all exist *yet*. But I'm betting with my wallet that they will within a few years.

but the internet solved a problem of information availability that was not currently being solved.  BTC doesn't solve a problem, just makes certain monetary transactions slightly easier (once you know what your doing).  I really dont think the comparison between the early internet and btc right now are valid.  BTC is not doing something new and different like the internet was doing.  I mean heck even walmart allows walmart to walmart money transfers now!