[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[Chuckee]

in the 1990s, the www did nothing for average people either.

I could list problems it solves and opportunities it creates, but it's boring doing that for the hundredth time. You would be correct in saying they do not all exist *yet*. But I'm betting with my wallet that they will within a few years.

The www was invented in what, 1993? 1994? Within a couple years, I was online with an Internet portal, and I was just a snot nosed kid who watched Nickelodeon all day. If I knew about it and was using it within such a short span of time, then obviously it had a significant impact on society. I could go online and find information about anything I wanted almost instantly via Yahoo or Alta Vista.

Bitcoin doesn't solve any problems for average people. If you tell people that it's more secure, then it's a lie, because nobody is backing the funds, and they can be lost or stolen with no course of action for the consumer. You can tell them it saves them on international transaction fees, but it doesn't matter, since anyone who actually cares about such a thing has a credit card that waives them anyway.

So what's left? Comparing bitcoin with the world wide web is a moot point.

The only thing that gets people's attention is when you tell them that it raised in price 10,000x over the past couple years. Money. That's all that anyone cares about, and until bitcoin actually provides real utility to users -- which it probably never will -- it's a flash in the frying pan of history. In 5 years, nobody will even remember any of this bullshit.

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[SmoothCurves]

Wallet creation means nothing, I've created hundreds of wallets, and I just played with bitcoin for a bit as a small time interest. People can make as many as they want, and routinely do for security principles.

variation over time obviously means *something*

ATMs, circle etc at least are a necessary part of infrastructure should anybody ever decide to use Bitcoin. A reduction in barriers to entry.

The only true fundamental that matters is the fact that bitcoin does not solve any problems for average people.

in the 1990s, the www did nothing for average people either.

I could list problems it solves and opportunities it creates, but it's boring doing that for the hundredth time. You would be correct in saying they do not all exist *yet*. But I'm betting with my wallet that they will within a few years.

but the internet solved a problem of information availability that was not currently being solved.  BTC doesn't solve a problem, just makes certain monetary transactions slightly easier (once you know what your doing).  I really dont think the comparison between the early internet and btc right now are valid.  BTC is not doing something new and different like the internet was doing.  I mean heck even walmart allows walmart to walmart money transfers now!

BTC solves the Byzantine Generals Problem. Take a look at what was said about the internet: http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

[Chuckee]

BTC solves the Byzantine Generals Problem. Take a look at what was said about the internet: http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

Cliff Stoll was merely expressing his doubts about the feasibility of online shopping and education in the classroom. He was partially right about the classroom part... computers have not replaced teachers in public schools, it's still really just a supplement. He was wrong about the online shopping part, and he's admitted such.

But the fundamental problem that bitcoiners can't get over is... bitcoin is not the Internet.

Cliff played a significant role in developing security best practices during the first couple decades of the Internet's development. He would have told you back in 1995 that the Internet was a significant advancement in technology, even if he had doubts about how it would effect our everyday lives.

But bitcoin is only a de-centralized payment network... and we already have plenty of payment methods. Is the public hungering for decentralization? So far, it certainly doesn't seem like it. And why would they? Their government issued money is working perfectly fine.

The Internet was a suite of protocols connecting computers around the world via switches, routers, and packet switching technologies. Bitcoin is simply one protocol built on top of that. It's delusions of grandeur. Apples and oranges.

[brg444]

in the 1990s, the www did nothing for average people either.

I could list problems it solves and opportunities it creates, but it's boring doing that for the hundredth time. You would be correct in saying they do not all exist *yet*. But I'm betting with my wallet that they will within a few years.

The www was invented in what, 1993? 1994? Within a couple years, I was online with an Internet portal, and I was just a snot nosed kid who watched Nickelodeon all day. If I knew about it and was using it within such a short span of time, then obviously it had a significant impact on society. I could go online and find information about anything I wanted almost instantly via Yahoo or Alta Vista.

Bitcoin doesn't solve any problems for average people. If you tell people that it's more secure, then it's a lie, because nobody is backing the funds, and they can be lost or stolen with no course of action for the consumer. You can tell them it saves them on international transaction fees, but it doesn't matter, since anyone who actually cares about such a thing has a credit card that waives them anyway.

So what's left? Comparing bitcoin with the world wide web is a moot point.

The only thing that gets people's attention is when you tell them that it raised in price 10,000x over the past couple years. Money. That's all that anyone cares about, and until bitcoin actually provides real utility to users -- which it probably never will -- it's a flash in the frying pan of history. In 5 years, nobody will even remember any of this bullshit.

You error is believing the pool of money speculators in Bitcoin has been exhausted.

In fact, I will venture to say that the next wave of adoption will be again fueled by nothing more than speculation. I'm sorry to say this but we are not yet at a stage where the utility proposition is primary.

In fact, someone broke it down in such a perfect way on reddit today I will just copy/paste that here and let you address it.

Sorry to be a jerk. .. .but I've got to be brutally honest here: most of you seem to have a walmart playpool's worth of depth when it comes to understanding what bitcoin is and what it's primary value proposition is.

Bitcoin is not yet money. For the love of disco, let me repeat: It is not yet a currency. It does not fulfill the three main requirements of a money to a high degree (medium of exchange; yes great. store of value; not so great. Unit of account; not at all . . . yet) And this unit of account aspect is key.

How retarded or misleading can one be; to suggest that a commodity, or a would-be-money, is somehow fundamentally flawed, because it does not yet enjoy a great deal of liquidity and widespread adoption, or because it's exchange price with the current money is volatile!? I mean: how else exactly do people imagine this phenomenon could possibly take place? . . .that one day, some magical company called Bitcoin Inc., should just pop on the scene and declare their unit in their digital blockchain ledger to be worth X amount, and it will just be so, because they declare it?
Only governments can do this, because governments have guns, and a slightly insane population of state-worshipers who believe that their proof-of-violence kind of money is somehow a good thing for society. Anyhow, regardless of how you feel about anarchy. . . it does not change the fact that valuation of a commodity is either forced and enforced. . . or it is emergent on a market. It takes time, to say the least. It cannot happen all at once, and it is going to be a messy, ugly, fits-and-starts, snafus, highly dis-equitable distributions initially, frauds, thefts, evolution of best practices and safeguards, etc. A process of getting a large segment of the population to not only wrap their heads around a new technology to some extent. . . but to build out infrastructure to make it easier to use, and to have a large enough network of people and businesses demanding and accepting bitcoin.

[brg444]

But bitcoin is only a de-centralized payment network...

And that's where your understanding falls short

Bitcoin is potentially the best form of money this world has ever seen.

Of course there is additional friction in Bitcoin's network effect because unlike the Internet one need to contribute value to participate in it. Those who have higher risk tolerance and can envision the reward will get in earlier. Laggards will get the crumbs.

[inca]

in the 1990s, the www did nothing for average people either.

I could list problems it solves and opportunities it creates, but it's boring doing that for the hundredth time. You would be correct in saying they do not all exist *yet*. But I'm betting with my wallet that they will within a few years.

The www was invented in what, 1993? 1994? Within a couple years, I was online with an Internet portal, and I was just a snot nosed kid who watched Nickelodeon all day. If I knew about it and was using it within such a short span of time, then obviously it had a significant impact on society. I could go online and find information about anything I wanted almost instantly via Yahoo or Alta Vista.

Bitcoin doesn't solve any problems for average people. If you tell people that it's more secure, then it's a lie, because nobody is backing the funds, and they can be lost or stolen with no course of action for the consumer. You can tell them it saves them on international transaction fees, but it doesn't matter, since anyone who actually cares about such a thing has a credit card that waives them anyway.

So what's left? Comparing bitcoin with the world wide web is a moot point.

The only thing that gets people's attention is when you tell them that it raised in price 10,000x over the past couple years. Money. That's all that anyone cares about, and until bitcoin actually provides real utility to users -- which it probably never will -- it's a flash in the frying pan of history. In 5 years, nobody will even remember any of this bullshit.

Which begs the obvious question, "why are you here?".

The answer of course is you are a liar, promulgating bearish and negative opinions about bitcoin with the sole aim of manipulating others on this forum to sell. And why? So you can buy of course.

[Chuckee]

in the 1990s, the www did nothing for average people either.

I could list problems it solves and opportunities it creates, but it's boring doing that for the hundredth time. You would be correct in saying they do not all exist *yet*. But I'm betting with my wallet that they will within a few years.

The www was invented in what, 1993? 1994? Within a couple years, I was online with an Internet portal, and I was just a snot nosed kid who watched Nickelodeon all day. If I knew about it and was using it within such a short span of time, then obviously it had a significant impact on society. I could go online and find information about anything I wanted almost instantly via Yahoo or Alta Vista.

Bitcoin doesn't solve any problems for average people. If you tell people that it's more secure, then it's a lie, because nobody is backing the funds, and they can be lost or stolen with no course of action for the consumer. You can tell them it saves them on international transaction fees, but it doesn't matter, since anyone who actually cares about such a thing has a credit card that waives them anyway.

So what's left? Comparing bitcoin with the world wide web is a moot point.

The only thing that gets people's attention is when you tell them that it raised in price 10,000x over the past couple years. Money. That's all that anyone cares about, and until bitcoin actually provides real utility to users -- which it probably never will -- it's a flash in the frying pan of history. In 5 years, nobody will even remember any of this bullshit.

Which begs the obvious question, "why are you here?".

The answer of course is you are a liar, promulgating bearish and negative opinions about bitcoin with the sole aim of manipulating others on this forum to sell. And why? So you can buy of course.

*sigh* Again, I'm here to warn you people and hopefully prevent any new potential "greater fools" from getting burned.

I could give two shits about manipulating the market down, as I won't ever be buying bitcoin again. I sold while we were still above $600, because I could see what was in store. I'm now trying to help others see the light.

[ssmc2]

^ Such a humanitarian 

[inca]

^ Such a humanitarian 

Yeah it is so pathetically transparent there are no words really (lol).

[Wekkel]

medium of exchange; yes great. store of value; not so great. Unit of account; not at all

I have a different view.

medium of exchange; yes great.
store of value; volatile, but upwards (on a longer term view)
Unit of account; not at all excellent

So the only thing 'lacking' is more stability in price. That will come ....... at higher prices.

[KeyJockey]

The only true fundamental that matters is the fact that bitcoin does not solve any problems for average people.
Nobody is discovering bitcoin and then buying some so that they can go shopping online. There is no point!

Hey Chuckee, FWIW I think you're an "inadvertent troll" (not being trolly intentionally but still... end result).

So I hesitated to reply in this thread at first (not wanting to feed the troll) but then I reconsidered, because of what you said there: about bitcoin not being useful for average people.

I actually used to be concerned about this idea, because YES on it's FACE, at first glance & only superficially considered, it DOES appear that this MIGHT be true!

And THAT, yes, would possibly mean "disaster" and bitcoin's eventual total failure.

But I've come to believe it's not true, for several significant reasons.

You're right that nobody's "buying bitcoin so they can go shopping online" with it.

You're right, and YES "there's no point" because that is NOT THE POINT.

The thing about bitcoin that even "Bitcoin Believers" don't always really GET (including ME, at first) is that bitcoin will take it's place in global e-commerce, even slowly and gradually and step by step, just because of WHAT IT IS.

Case in point?  ME and my experience recently.

I own a lot of bitcoin: been buying more and more, as much as I can manage, even as the price has been falling since early this year.  My dollar cost average is in the $625 range so I'm quite a bit in the RED at the moment, which sucks, but even so I'm still looking to buy more.

Despite this fact that I am SITTING ON a lot of bitcoin, I don't actually USE it that much. 

So... yes, you're right that it seems like it might be not very useful to most normal people.  I've thought of that, as you said, already before and worried about it, and worried about what it might MEAN.

I use my bitcoin usually only to fool around online in some of the bitcoin casino sites, winning or losing a few dollars here and there playing a little blackjack in my spare time (which, in itself, is much easier and cheaper to do at home online versus going to the local casino a couple days a month... and even in THAT I am pretty sure bitcoin has saved me some money, since I'd rather win/lose $10 total playing fractions of a penny per hand, than $100 or more playing $5-$15 per hand on a real card game in a brick and mortar casino... LOL but, anyway, I digress).

So... then something happened, one day, just a little while ago... something happened that made a LIGHT BULB go off over my head.

I was reading an online story about how the legendary old-school hacker "Captain Crunch" (of Jobs & Wozniak's bluebox fame) has been having medical problems lately, and how someone had set up an anonymous donation page for him.  Going there to check it out I noticed the donation page INCLUDED A BITCOIN OPTION.

Without hardly even thinking about it, I immediately clicked over a couple bucks worth of BTC to help out Captain Crunch.

Honestly, I zapped it over directly from a bitcoin casino game wallet that I was fooling around with at that moment!

It was totally instant, totally anonymous, and there is NO WAY IN HELL that I ever would've given $2 bucks to help Captain Crunch if I'd needed to fill out any kind of bank or credit card processing form to do it. 

It JUST wouldn't have happened, never, nope, no way, "sorry".

But dropping a couple BITS in there, on a whim?  Hardly a second thought, and I was happy to do it!

SO... what's my point?  Long story short: people don't know they'll use bitcoin until they have some bitcoin.

Once they have some, however they get it at first (gift from a friend? just to check it out? whatever...!!!) THEN, after a while... after bitcoin has gotten "boring" and is just THERE, and it's no longer anything really "new" or "special"... it will find it's place, in a million little ways, permeating thru all of global commerce, in ways that we all here probably can't even guess at, bitcoin will just get USED by virtually everyone, with hardly a second thought.  Kinda like what happened with email.

Those millions of dollars of software development investment that Silicon Valley and Wall Street are backing BITCOIN businesses with, right now, are what's going to make this happen. 

And like in the WWW revolution there will be winners and losers along the way, and the final end result shape and appearance of what e-commerce will look like AFTER all that happens, in the future, is probably nearly impossible for anyone to imagine today...

But, IMHO there's a very good chance it'll happen and that BTC will still be there, largely the same as it is today, at the heart of it all.


Summary(?)
=========

ONLINE / CYBERSPACE E-Commerce is a reflection of the real world, and in the MEATSPACE normal commerce economy, both CASH and CREDIT CARDS are still both used.

Credit cards have chipped away at cash usage over the last several years, but cash still works better in a lot of ways.

Dropping a couple bucks into a street performers donation jar, or paying a friend for a coffee are never done with a credit card. But if you have a couple bucks in your pocket?  Sure.

The INTERNET has clearly always needed a CASH function. 

It has credit cards already, and they work mostly fine, sometimes very well, and that probably won't totally go away any time soon.

But BITCOIN is here now for the long-needed CASH function of online commerce to finally take it's place.

And it likely WILL happen, just as soon as "normal people" are only exposed to the idea long enough for it to "just happen"... without all the hype and freaking out about it, LOL

[megadeth]

^ petty internet cash as Nagle called it.

[fewcoins]

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is 

The lowest point recently was 365.2 being the most recent bottom

short term (hourly) sellers are running out of steam

long term (3-day) nowhere near the previous low of 339.8

It could still go either way, but the bear case is hardly conclusive right now. Your horizon is so short though, that you seem to forget we have already been this low, this is not new ground. This is trading in a range still.

If we go below 340, then you might have a point. First you have to get below 365.2 though. Until then trading in a range means sometimes we go up (like how we went from 340 to 660 may/june time) and it goes down.

Done deal, We just broke 350... Trust me 340 will be broken before the weekends even done. Do you notice how many times you changed your price target??? You're promoting people to lose a lot of money. We need to keep selling until the mega miners close down! Stop denying it!!!

[inca]

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is 

The lowest point recently was 365.2 being the most recent bottom

short term (hourly) sellers are running out of steam

long term (3-day) nowhere near the previous low of 339.8

It could still go either way, but the bear case is hardly conclusive right now. Your horizon is so short though, that you seem to forget we have already been this low, this is not new ground. This is trading in a range still.

If we go below 340, then you might have a point. First you have to get below 365.2 though. Until then trading in a range means sometimes we go up (like how we went from 340 to 660 may/june time) and it goes down.

Done deal, We just broke 350... Trust me 340 will be broken before the weekends even done. Do you notice how many times you changed your price target??? You're promoting people to lose a lot of money. We need to keep selling until the mega miners close down! Stop denying it!!!

We arent even at the lowest price of the year yet. Why would anyone in their right mind trust someone on an internet forum, especially an odious little troll like you? 

[fewcoins]

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is 

The lowest point recently was 365.2 being the most recent bottom

short term (hourly) sellers are running out of steam

long term (3-day) nowhere near the previous low of 339.8

It could still go either way, but the bear case is hardly conclusive right now. Your horizon is so short though, that you seem to forget we have already been this low, this is not new ground. This is trading in a range still.

If we go below 340, then you might have a point. First you have to get below 365.2 though. Until then trading in a range means sometimes we go up (like how we went from 340 to 660 may/june time) and it goes down.

Done deal, We just broke 350... Trust me 340 will be broken before the weekends even done. Do you notice how many times you changed your price target??? You're promoting people to lose a lot of money. We need to keep selling until the mega miners close down! Stop denying it!!!

We arent even at the lowest price of the year yet. Why would anyone in their right mind trust someone on an internet forum, especially an odious little troll like you? 

That's right we aren't at the lowest price yet because EVERYDAY will be a new low... & considering how you're posting under everything I do, Im pretty sure you're trolling me. Im saving people massive amounts of money, my customers didn't lose out on this amazing 60% drop in price we had but Im sure you did. GLTA

[inca]

<troll crap>

I think what you said is a fair summary of the content of all your posts.

[sgbett]

Can we expect you to learn? Because your posts don't show that.
Can we expect you to earn? Because your fear doesn't show that.

Every run up confirms adoption, cyclical behaviour. Every correction to higher lows shows support.

Do you even lift?

higher lows??? Wtf are you looking at man, the 5min graph??? 1day-3day-1week charts show all the same thing! Continued downward trend since it almost hit $1200!! Adoption isn't even good for the community right now! Everyone is burning through these coins for fiat!

.......Cute poem or whatever the fuck that is 

The lowest point recently was 365.2 being the most recent bottom

short term (hourly) sellers are running out of steam

long term (3-day) nowhere near the previous low of 339.8

It could still go either way, but the bear case is hardly conclusive right now. Your horizon is so short though, that you seem to forget we have already been this low, this is not new ground. This is trading in a range still.

If we go below 340, then you might have a point. First you have to get below 365.2 though. Until then trading in a range means sometimes we go up (like how we went from 340 to 660 may/june time) and it goes down.

Done deal, We just broke 350... Trust me 340 will be broken before the weekends even done. Do you notice how many times you changed your price target??? You're promoting people to lose a lot of money. We need to keep selling until the mega miners close down! Stop denying it!!!

Yes, here we are 3am in the morning and I can't get no sleep

This is the test, and it will probably set the tone for the next few months.

What's funny is that the only reason I want it to go up is so I don't have to read any more of these vainglorious posts claiming that you actually know what's happening.

You are guessing, same as me, except at least I know it.

so I will watch as we test 340 and if we break below, you can continue to be obnoxiously arrogant about how right you are and nobody will be the better off for it. Whatever floats your boat.

I've got *decades* of patience though, and I have no fear.

[sgbett]

Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process. I also probably exposes your real agenda. That's also just a guess.

[An amorous cow-herder]

Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process.

Well, i would guess there are only so many interpretations for a topic called "[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now".
I mean, what is the topic supposed to imply?

[fewcoins]

Keep launching personal attacks... I don't feel bad about it. Makes me laugh how you rather complain about me & won't acknowledge the price dropping so fast