[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[dnaleor]

to get a grasp of how it could look like, i projected 2 possible scenario's on the recent low of 275 USD

Scenario 1 (green): long consolidation phase; the same as after the 2011 bubble folowed by the 2 bubbles of 2013
scenario 2 (red): we are on the verge of a new massive bubble like in 2011; followed by the same consolidation and 2 bubbles of 2013

the numbers are mind boggling 

linear chart:


log chart:

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[Wekkel]

That's how I like charts: mind boggling 

[keystroke]

I have been following cryptocurrencies since I was in high school in the late 90s (Tim May was an influence, as was Orlin Grabbe, who most people here have not heard of).

My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.

Once it became worth $1 it was apparent that this assumption was incorrect because the speculation cycle had kicked into effect. I underestimated the ability of bitcoin to be valued at even 1 cent. After this moment it was off to the races.

Now we are in the seeding stage and it is possible we will have to wait for halvings for intense growth -- that is, depending on how much speculation will be going on, and how these thinly traded markets are manipulated.

Many currently underestimate the ability of bitcoin to be valued at $1,000 or $10,000. In time they too will come to see the error of their ways.

[var53]

My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.

I made the same mistake around the same time as you. I thought it would never catch on, although I don't blame myself too much because I since heard there were about five precursors to bitcoin that did not catch on. Perhaps in a few years today's prices will seem like bargain basement prices.

[hdbuck]

mind boggling

[dnaleor]

I could even live with the lowest exchange rate from both curves at each point in time

edit: @sgbett
according to the "red scenario" it could take about 8 months more than in your prediction to reach 560k 

[Biodom]

That's how I like charts: mind boggling  

it would be truly nice if financial assets prices follow simple mathematical rules like laws of gravity determining our planet rotation around the Sun, but they are not.
There is no law that says that we will stay on a log trend, hence virtually any price is possible, including both close to a 1mil and zero.
So far, my BTC investment (last 12 mo) was a disappointment, it is just a simple fact.
As an example, nobody in my family has any interest in bitcoin despite me constantly prodding them about it for a year.
Maybe it just does not have any appeal for a majority of the population.

I have been following cryptocurrencies since I was in high school in the late 90s (Tim May was an influence, as was Orlin Grabbe, who most people here have not heard of).

My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.

Perhaps, you were partially right as I don't see any hockey stick increase in mass interest.

[Ruthful]

My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.

Once it became worth $1 it was apparent that this assumption was incorrect because the speculation cycle had kicked into effect.

You're kinda correct ,the common man still have no reason to use bitcoin at the moment and were a zero factor in the rise of bitcoin price.The people are driving bitcoin  be it speculators or enthusiast are a very far cry the average joes as it comes.

[Valerian77]

... ,the common man still have no reason to use bitcoin at the moment ....

many travellers use it and some people for remittance. on top services like ChangeTip and purse.io make it attractive for the average joe

[Ruthful]

... ,the common man still have no reason to use bitcoin at the moment ....

many travellers use it and some people for remittance. on top services like ChangeTip and purse.io make it attractive for the average joe

Those people who uses them falls under enthusiast  .
In both those cases(travelling and money remittance) bitcoin added layers of complexity and cost(mainly when dealing with fiat conversion) ,two thing that are working against bitcoin for public adoption.In order for the average to want bitcoin those two hurdles need to be eliminated  or bitcoin need to offer something that makes the efforts worth it.

[adaseb]

I wish. But this will never happy. I bet you my left nut.

We might never see $1000 again let alone half a million.

[600watt]

I wish. But this will never happy. I bet you my left nut.

We might never see $1000 again let alone half a million.

your sayin' that if bitcoin rises over $ 5000 you will chop it off ?

tarantino style?

[riiiiising]

Are you still sure this is going to happen? If so, within 12 months, we're all going to be rich!

Do you think I should buy now, or is it possible for price to go lower?

[sgbett]

it r on target chaps 

[600watt]

it r on target chaps 

just sold a third of my gold to buy bitcoin because of this thread 

[Biodom]

it r on target chaps  

Let's see what happens during auction and afterwards first. However, seems that miners were briskly purchasing SP20 and S3/S4 during Black Friday.
These ASIC miners (for example, SP20) can only make money (in 105 days with average difficulty rise of 5% and electricity cost of $0.12/kwh) if BTC is at ~$600.
They cannot be profitable at $379, unless your electricity cost is zero.
If bitcoin miner(s) purchasers are rational players as a whole, then their actions predict BTC rise.
Maybe I should get one...

[Dilla]

Looks like we are pretty much on track. 

[Wilhelm]

That log-chart looks plausible

[KJO]

it r on target chaps 

just sold a third of my gold to buy bitcoin because of this thread 

You'll be sorry.

[SmoothCurves]

it r on target chaps 

just sold a third of my gold to buy bitcoin because of this thread 

You'll be sorry.

Should have sold 90% of the gold.