[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[sgbett]

I could even live with the lowest exchange rate from both curves at each point in time

edit: @sgbett
according to the "red scenario" it could take about 8 months more than in your prediction to reach 560k 

dat 10k -> $1k correction. oof!

that'd test some mettle

[slaveforanunnak1]

my fav meme

[grappa_barricata]

History doesn't repeat itself. It's the men that are unable to discern anything when immersed in the situation, like an ant that don't know the shape of the anthill. So we look at the past and project it to the future, we know that everything changes constantly but we ignore this fact. Strangely enough, we do this only when the projected outcome is favorable to us. And so, the OP (I assume) ride the pumps of the past and is now predicting the pumps of the future. To do so, he tweaked some function parameters until the result was acceptable for him. All the people rejoiced of the favorable prediction, the endorphin flowing over the internet cables. In other moments, I'll find this mildly amusing. But not now, no, now it is just fucking pathetic that we are bounded to delude ourselves of better futures, instead of building them, until death arrives.

[inca]

History doesn't repeat itself. It's the men that are unable to discern anything when immersed in the situation, like an ant that don't know the shape of the anthill. So we look at the past and project it to the future, we know that everything changes constantly but we ignore this fact. Strangely enough, we do this only when the projected outcome is favorable to us. And so, the OP (I assume) ride the pumps of the past and is now predicting the pumps of the future. To do so, he tweaked some function parameters until the result was acceptable for him. All the people rejoiced of the favorable prediction, the endorphin flowing over the internet cables. In other moments, I'll find this mildly amusing. But not now, no, now it is just fucking pathetic that we are bounded to delude ourselves of better futures, instead of building them, until death arrives.

Keep dreaming.

[grappa_barricata]

History doesn't repeat itself. It's the men that are unable to discern anything when immersed in the situation, like an ant that don't know the shape of the anthill. So we look at the past and project it to the future, we know that everything changes constantly but we ignore this fact. Strangely enough, we do this only when the projected outcome is favorable to us. And so, the OP (I assume) ride the pumps of the past and is now predicting the pumps of the future. To do so, he tweaked some function parameters until the result was acceptable for him. All the people rejoiced of the favorable prediction, the endorphin flowing over the internet cables. In other moments, I'll find this mildly amusing. But not now, no, now it is just fucking pathetic that we are bounded to delude ourselves of better futures, instead of building them, until death arrives.

Keep dreaming.

Dreaming about what, a 149,333 % rise in value in 14 months?

[SmoothCurves]

History doesn't repeat itself. It's the men that are unable to discern anything when immersed in the situation, like an ant that don't know the shape of the anthill. So we look at the past and project it to the future, we know that everything changes constantly but we ignore this fact. Strangely enough, we do this only when the projected outcome is favorable to us. And so, the OP (I assume) ride the pumps of the past and is now predicting the pumps of the future. To do so, he tweaked some function parameters until the result was acceptable for him. All the people rejoiced of the favorable prediction, the endorphin flowing over the internet cables. In other moments, I'll find this mildly amusing. But not now, no, now it is just fucking pathetic that we are bounded to delude ourselves of better futures, instead of building them, until death arrives.

Yes it does. See: Telegraph, Telephone, Radio, TV, Automobiles, Computers, Internet, Video Games. All of these things started out with a tiny communities that kept on growing.

[grappa_barricata]

History doesn't repeat itself. It's the men that are unable to discern anything when immersed in the situation, like an ant that don't know the shape of the anthill. So we look at the past and project it to the future, we know that everything changes constantly but we ignore this fact. Strangely enough, we do this only when the projected outcome is favorable to us. And so, the OP (I assume) ride the pumps of the past and is now predicting the pumps of the future. To do so, he tweaked some function parameters until the result was acceptable for him. All the people rejoiced of the favorable prediction, the endorphin flowing over the internet cables. In other moments, I'll find this mildly amusing. But not now, no, now it is just fucking pathetic that we are bounded to delude ourselves of better futures, instead of building them, until death arrives.

Yes it does. See: Telegraph, Telephone, Radio, TV, Automobiles, Computers, Internet, Video Games. All of these things started out with a tiny communities that kept on growing.

I'm not arguing that bitcoin isn't an innovation nor that it hasn't a future. I only find the thread optimistic to the point of ridicule. About the 'history does/doesn't repeat itself'... those you mention are all different, evolving technologies, developed by various means, in different scenarios and with different destinies. Hardly repeating, unless of course one is satisfied with 'man has ingenuity and invent things, hence history repeat itself'.

[sgbett]

Was it ridiculous to predict a catastrophic price collapse during any of the previous run ups?

That very prediction was made, publicly/vocally or privately/silently, by I and many others, and largely based simply on the fact that it has happened before.

Taking heed of that prediction curtailed my losses, as taking heed of this prediction will prevent me missing an opportunity.

I know I don't know what I'm doing, I make decisions based on the fact that the outcome of any future event is unknowable, I position myself to capitalise on the unexpected. If it doesn't happen?... it was not expected to anyway.

[Bagatell]

I know I don't know what I'm doing, I make decisions based on the fact that the outcome of any future event is unknowable, I position myself to capitalise on the unexpected. If it doesn't happen?... it was not expected to anyway.

Isn't that the beginning of wisdom? Anyway, thanks for this thread, it has opened me up to possibilities that could cost me dearly if I wasn't prepared for them.

[snipus]

Newbie to this forum but not to bitcoin and really appreciate Mr Betts thread
and his disclaimers that this is a model and not a prediction. I believe
in the S curve model as it seems to have decent history especially in
 new technology. I am what some call a hoarder
I know it is a popular view is that hoarding is bad for bitcoin. Of course if the glass
is half full we call it saving, not hoarding. And if we are adherents' to
Gresham's law, spending fiat before bitcoin is logical. I like Mr Betts have
no doubt if it gets into the S curve I will sell some coins for fiat but only
a few, I hope, and only to buy something or pay the rent. I know from
my experience with APPLE how hard it is to hold on and not sell while an asset is appreciating
just as it is hard to sell when an asset is depreciating.
Hope all the members are having as much fun and entertainment with
the BTC proposition as I am. If we hoarders are right we get a great
ride and if not still have gas in the car

[Bagatell]

Newbie to this forum but not to bitcoin and really appreciate Mr Betts thread
and his disclaimers that this is a model and not a prediction. I believe
in the S curve model as it seems to have decent history especially in
 new technology. I am what some call a hoarder
I know it is a popular view is that hoarding is bad for bitcoin. Of course if the glass
is half full we call it saving, not hoarding. And if we are adherents' to
Gresham's law, spending fiat before bitcoin is logical. I like Mr Betts have
no doubt if it gets into the S curve I will sell some coins for fiat but only
a few, I hope, and only to buy something or pay the rent. I know from
my experience with APPLE how hard it is to hold on and not sell while an asset is appreciating
just as it is hard to sell when an asset is depreciating.
Hope all the members are having as much fun and entertainment with
the BTC proposition as I am. If we hoarders are right we get a great
ride and if not still have gas in the car

Welcome and it's HODL not hoard 

[3eme]

How many of you are familiar with the writings of Another and Friend of Another and their thinking on freegold? After reading this http://fofoa.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/global-stagnation.html FOFOA post about the transition to a post dollar hegemony world, I think sgbett might just be on to something, it is clear that the world is transitioning away from the dollar as the reserve currency into free floating exchange in which gold goes to a higher price to recapitalise debtor nations and to compensate saver nations e.g china with $4t in treasuries. We will most likely see a run to 'real' assets and out of paper during a period of hyperinflation (20% inflation plus). Stashing a few coins and some gold now might just make you look like a financial genius in a few years!

[cellard]

That would mean I could potentially be a millonaire, and never nothing nice happens to me so I dont think so.

[Gosroth]

Heya mister OP,

Coming from an engineering background this graph looks quite similar to the operation of a PID controller. As value is added to bitcoin from other sources (modelled as a step input, aka a horizontal line of some price equivalent on your graph), the price overshoots, undershoots, then eventually attenuates (stabilizes) around that value. Of course as bitcoin gains legitimacy greater and greater step inputs will be applied in the system, indeed resulting in a kind of huge black swan event when huge players of capital start to invest.

What this model fails to capture is that after there is no more major capital to invest (aka bitcoin has gone mainstream, TO THE MOON, etc.) the system will again attenuate, but much more quickly and with less variance because there is no (emotional and/or fiat-centric attitude) justification for the price to undershoot by so much.

Add a linear component after this date of stabilization to reflect the deflationary nature of the currency and you will have what I think is a pretty accurate model of how things will go down!

I'm excited to see if my theory turns out to be right.

[riiiiising]

snake oil, come and get your snake oil! good for what ails ya!

[Sevvero]

Wow, OP is dumb. Bet he is crying in corner from all the shame right now.

[ParabellumLite]

snake oil, come and get your snake oil! good for what ails ya!

This. The entire prediction we're seeing here isn't rooted in reality at all. I wonder if sgbett will come back here to apologize whenever his prediction won't come true and Bitcoin grinds further down towards zero, while being overtaken by crypto 2.0.

[ssmc2]

It's true the trolls run in packs 

[riiiiising]

snake oil, come and get your snake oil! good for what ails ya!

This. The entire prediction we're seeing here isn't rooted in reality at all. I wonder if sgbett will come back here to apologize whenever his prediction won't come true and Bitcoin grinds further down towards zero, while being overtaken by crypto 2.0.

He's already in damage control... so he'll probably tell us that it was just a prediction and it shouldn't have been taken seriously. Meanwhile, everyone who has properly predicted the downward trend has been labeled as a "troll" and told they were "lucky" when, of course, they're correct. Just look at my sig.

[sgbett]

I'll take "financial ruin" over "being wrong on the internet" for $100 please bob...~

You get called trolls because you can't/don't read and you you post content purely based around trying self aggrandise. Why would I be ashamed of putting forward a generalised hypothesis about how price discovery might work? I said in the OP that its not about the values its about the concept, but you consistently glom onto the figures like they are some cast iron guaranteed get rich quick trading scheme.  Says more about you then you even realise.

Apologise? cry in the corner? Sounds like you guys are just parroting things that your mums say to you when you've been naughty boys.

I aint even mad. kids will be kids

Tell me, what is the bitcoin price going to do over the next 10-20 years? You don't know, I don't know, that's why we are in here speculating. What if I'm right - you ready? Because I sure as hell am. I'm also totally ready for it going to zero. I can tell you are excited, it sounds like your life will be enriched by 'being right OTI'. More power to you.

So, as I have explained countless times to anyone that cares to grok it, it doesn't matter who is right or wrong. It matters that you understand the potential outcomes and how you best position yourself.

Lost you yet? I should be so lucky....