Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Afrikoin]

same story. good looking form to me. probably dont have 8hours though...

https://www.tradingview.com/v/1JvVfPQc/

EDIT. the target seems to be around 1600 now that the triangle has further developed. good form.

Is this forecast invalidated? After recent events

[chessnut]

Apart from a failed triangle thrust wave c is under-way as expected and we should be bound for 1300 at least. without going into too much detail of the count, We could find a medium term bottom within the blue box illustrated before a rally to approx $320, or it is possible that we continue on to find a yearly bottom from this point.

[Afrikoin]

Question:

So we have been in an altered corrective wave all along?
 
ie pattern in rectangle

***Sorry chessnut to drift from your thread. I'll pull my image down after i get a response. Still learning EW, need to fix an itch****

[RyNinDaCleM]

Question:

So we have been in an altered corrective wave all along?
 
ie pattern in rectangle

***Sorry chessnut to drift from your thread. I'll pull my image down after i get a response. Still learning EW, need to fix an itch****

It is my opinion, everything since the 166 bottom has been corrective, yes.
It could be that we are making a move similar to November or May last year. It is also possible that we are tracing out a larger triangle where $315 was the A, 210 was the B and 268 was the C. We now just wait for the conclusion of D and E before we head down.

[phoenix1]

Yeh, I saw that too, triangles everywhere !!  

Seems not an unlikely scenario -  bouncing between the trendlines, long-term wedge closing, holding pattern til auction over, forming a larger triangle, but hey this is BTC so who knows  

A descending triangle with $210 as the floor (B and D) might fit well too, but there is the wedge support above that at $220 

Interesting times ...

[sidhujag]

Question:

So we have been in an altered corrective wave all along?
 
ie pattern in rectangle

***Sorry chessnut to drift from your thread. I'll pull my image down after i get a response. Still learning EW, need to fix an itch****

It is my opinion, everything since the 166 bottom has been corrective, yes.
It could be that we are making a move similar to November or May last year. It is also possible that we are tracing out a larger triangle where $315 was the A, 210 was the B and 268 was the C. We now just wait for the conclusion of D and E before we head down.

THis is what makes me bullish... people strongly believe we are headed back down... it usually does the opposite of what you think it will do in a micro sense.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Question:

So we have been in an altered corrective wave all along?
 
ie pattern in rectangle

***Sorry chessnut to drift from your thread. I'll pull my image down after i get a response. Still learning EW, need to fix an itch****

It is my opinion, everything since the 166 bottom has been corrective, yes.
It could be that we are making a move similar to November or May last year. It is also possible that we are tracing out a larger triangle where $315 was the A, 210 was the B and 268 was the C. We now just wait for the conclusion of D and E before we head down.

THis is what makes me bullish... people strongly believe we are headed back down... it usually does the opposite of what you think it will do in a micro sense.

Good! Then my cold storage makes me money for the first time in a year. But until we invalidate the possibility of any further bearish counts, then it is more likely that we see lower lows (or a truncation of some sorts) than it is to go back to ATH's.
I posted a count 3 or 4 weeks ago with a path to ~$360 before seeing such lows. Only time will tell and I expect 50/50 of two scenarios... That chart I posted or just dropping out from these levels to the lower lows.

[chessnut]

Caution to longs here as a potential wave iii of c is underway towards 1300. no chart as I dont like posting short time frames.

[Jettison86]

This is what I see on Bitfinex 1H.  Looking to test and likely breach 232.

https://i.imgur.com/6XLJTiz.gif

[chessnut]

The bears have had a fair chance to dump and produce a wave c but heavy selling was rejected by the bulls who have now formed a five wave structure from lows. A well formed wave c down to the 1300 level would have been nice but it is not necessary when it is apart of a larger wave B, the most dissonant and ugly of waves that occur.

This primary count here is consistent with a bullish count of DanV's, where we rally to the 300 level from here and then retest lows finally after that.

[karol]

Hi Chessnut is this count still valid?

[chessnut]

Hi Chessnut is this count still valid?

no BUT the bias is still bullish it seems. I dont see a plausible and valid way how this can continue to the downside.

[chessnut]

I will post a chart when TV updates. It is clear what is happening, we are targeting the 300 area.

[chessnut]

This is roughly the larger count. the breakout is characteristic of a triangle thrust. The triangle could be a running flat or wave A count terminate at 1800 yuan.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Caution to longs here as a potential wave iii of c is underway towards 1300. no chart as I dont like posting short time frames.

3 days ago ^^^^

(As we currently sit at 1586 yuan)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Apart from a failed triangle thrust wave c is under-way as expected and we should be bound for 1300 at least.

5 days ago ^^^^^

[L0uis]

The bears have had a fair chance to dump and produce a wave c but heavy selling was rejected by the bulls who have now formed a five wave structure from lows.

Hi Chessnut is this count still valid?

no BUT the bias is still bullish it seems. I dont see a plausible and valid way how this can continue to the downside.

[chessnut]

The sideways consolidation over the last couple of days produced a triangle that was ripe for a breakout today. It broke to the down side sharply, most characteristic of a triangle. From an EW perspective this is a relief and a blessing because this is exactly how a triangle should fit into the bigger picture here, wave b of 2, a terminal move before wave 3 can take us higher towards 300. The primary wave often retraces 0.618% before wave iii. I am looking for a bottom to form near the 0.618 fib soon.

[chessnut]

A we are evidently in a corrective wave to the overall downtrend I think its important to give a balanced perspective within the ambiguous wandering abc's within B waves. This is a chart by the analyst DanV and it is valid. Ideally for trading we want as little ambiguity as possible. Good to keep in mind.

[podyx]

First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down?