Critical Levels - EW analysis

[madmat]

First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down?

The power of EW. Multiple counts could be valid and you have to switch quickly when one suddenly invalidates.

[chessnut]

First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down?

The power of EW. Multiple counts could be valid and you have to switch quickly when one suddenly invalidates.

No, I say we are going up period. DanV changed his mind, unknown why to me, and said we are going down, why did I feel the need to post this? for the protection of traders who are following my analysis. You have to be prepared for both ways. Madmat, not all trades are created equal, and I sense sarcasm in what you say, but you are actually right in a sense that EW provides us the best defined expectations for a trade. EW traders may be supple and emotionally detached because yes, we do know exactly when we are wrong. EW is what it is.

[chessnut]

The sideways consolidation over the last couple of days produced a triangle that was ripe for a breakout today. It broke to the down side sharply, most characteristic of a triangle. From an EW perspective this is a relief and a blessing because this is exactly how a triangle should fit into the bigger picture here, wave b of 2, a terminal move before wave 3 can take us higher towards 300. The primary wave often retraces 0.618% before wave iii. I am looking for a bottom to form near the 0.618 fib soon.

This seems to be catalysed by news https://archive.today/G5R1Z#selection-1208.0-1320.3

[madmat]

First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down?

The power of EW. Multiple counts could be valid and you have to switch quickly when one suddenly invalidates.

No, I say we are going up period. DanV changed his mind, unknown why to me, and said we are going down, why did I feel the need to post this? for the protection of traders who are following my analysis. You have to be prepared for both ways. Madmat, not all trades are created equal, and I sense sarcasm in what you say, but you are actually right in a sense that EW provides us the best defined expectations for a trade. EW traders may be supple and emotionally detached because yes, we do know exactly when we are wrong. EW is what it is.

I sounded sarcastic, but it was to express my frustration. Because I am not a trader, I trade to learn about Bitcoin as trading is part of it, and it is hard for me to see when it invalidates and when I have to cut my positions. I think it is the reason why you don't want to post anymore about short term. When the count is invalidated, the time you post and it is too late.

I follow your thread carefully and I won some money thanks to your posts. Keep posting.

[Afrikoin]

The sideways consolidation over the last couple of days produced a triangle that was ripe for a breakout today. It broke to the down side sharply, most characteristic of a triangle. From an EW perspective this is a relief and a blessing because this is exactly how a triangle should fit into the bigger picture here, wave b of 2, a terminal move before wave 3 can take us higher towards 300. The primary wave often retraces 0.618% before wave iii. I am looking for a bottom to form near the 0.618 fib soon.

This seems to be catalysed by news https://archive.today/G5R1Z#selection-1208.0-1320.3

does this news change the outlook BEFORE the news came out? OR does it amplify the move up?

[chessnut]

does this news change the outlook BEFORE the news came out? OR does it amplify the move up?

We call news a catalyst in EW analysis. The market cannot make a substantial move unless it is prepared to move, in other words if the crowd is positioned to move. If it were not for the news right now the climb would not be as steep, but it probably would be climbing regardless. News or no, the fundamentals remain the same.

[chessnut]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

[scv00]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Do you think the bottom is in yet?

[chessnut]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

[BitCoinNutJob]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Wow i just dont see how we get down there but whatever i'll keep an eye out, any price under $200 and i'd buying another 30-40 coins.

[chessnut]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Wow i just dont see how we get down there but whatever i'll keep an eye out, any price under $200 and i'd buying another 30-40 coins.

There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

[BitCoinNutJob]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Wow i just dont see how we get down there but whatever i'll keep an eye out, any price under $200 and i'd buying another 30-40 coins.

There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

Yeah i think i saw danv's vid on youtube say something similar like this unless we go down to make a new low soon.  I dont get why we couldn't just start a bubble from here though. 

Another note: I would suggest speaking in % chances of outcomes all the time to all geniune market predictors.

[Afrikoin]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Really? I find that hard to believe. This rise up has been gradual - almost authentic. Plus, all the good news coming out.

[BitCoinNutJob]

We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Really? I find that hard to believe. This rise up has been gradual - almost authentic. Plus, all the good news coming out.

So.. imo better to ask chessnut what % chance does he think we'll see a lower low this year?

[HeliKopterBen]

There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

Not necessarily.  Flags/wedges (bull in this case) sometimes have violent moves in the opposite direction.

[chessnut]

There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

Not necessarily.  Flags/wedges (bull in this case) sometimes have violent moves in the opposite direction.

In terms of EW, necessary. but anything is possible.

[chessnut]

The five wave climb seems weaker than expected at this point but the form is still good. As wave i and iii tend toward equality there is a chance of a blowout fifth wave towards 2000-2200 yuan over the coming 72 hrs.

[D05GTO]

What % chance would you assign to a blowout?  5% or 65%?

[BitCoinNutJob]

What % chance would you assign to a blowout?  5% or 65%?

hehe i was going to ask the same question, % chance & timeframe is kinda critical to making a trade decision.

[JustAnotherSheep]

The five wave climb seems weaker than expected at this point but the form is still good. As wave i and iii tend toward equality there is a chance of a blowout fifth wave towards 2000-2200 yuan over the coming 72 hrs.

Could you elaborate for a noob like me what indications there are for a blowout fifth? I thought 5ths usually extend when the third is weak, but this one seems to have hit a solid 1.618 target on most exchanges. The only place where it underextended from what I can see is Huobi.

Or do you think a blowout 5 will only happen there?