Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

The five wave climb seems weaker than expected at this point but the form is still good. As wave i and iii tend toward equality there is a chance of a blowout fifth wave towards 2000-2200 yuan over the coming 72 hrs.

Could you elaborate for a noob like me what indications there are for a blowout fifth? I thought 5ths usually extend when the third is weak, but this one seems to have hit a solid 1.618 target on most exchanges. The only place where it underextended from what I can see is Huobi.

Or do you think a blowout 5 will only happen there?

Well there are only 2 reasons why I think there is a chance for a bow out fifth, keeping in mind its not something id usually expect ever. The one is that i and iii are close in size, the other is that the fair target for the larger picture is 320-350.

The rally to 3000 yuan was a blowout fifth. we are in the same position here.

What % chance would you assign to a blowout?  5% or 65%?

meh, idk. 40%

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[RyNinDaCleM]

meh, idk. 40%

Don't give percentages...
If people want to follow blindly without knowing what you're really talking about, then fuck'em! You provide trading ideas. It's not your job to trade for them, It's up to them to decide what route to take. If they can't do their own analysis to make their own probabilities (or at least some risk assessment), then that's their problem, not yours.

[BitCoinNutJob]

As a newbie to EW its difficult to paint a full picture of the importance of EW without %. It reads so much better to hear 50-65% chance of making this price level in 48-72 hours vs theres a decent chance we make this price level very soon.

Nobody owes anyone anything much here thats for sure so if its offensive to ask for % then i apologise.  It is quite possible i dont understand and yeah maybe putting up % update is asking too much.  A donation address in the signature could help offset?

I wont be trading soley on the advice in this thread, only taking it into small consideration, i'm working with 5% of stack for a bit of fun currently.

Peace out.

[michaelGedi]

As a newbie to EW its difficult to paint a full picture of the importance of EW without %. It reads so much better to hear 50-65% chance of making this price level in 48-72 hours vs theres a decent chance we make this price level very soon.

Nobody owes anyone anything much here thats for sure so if its offensive to ask for % then i apologise.  It is quite possible i dont understand and yeah maybe putting up % update is asking too much.  A donation address in the signature could help offset?

I wont be trading soley on the advice in this thread, only taking it into small consideration, i'm working with 5% of stack for a bit of fun currently.

Peace out.

a percentage is too definitive, especially when asking someone who's already potentially doing a bunch of calculations.

probably, maybe, slim chance, good chance, extremely likely, more than likely impossible... this sort of language should serve as good enough proxies for the sort of percentages you'd be getting anyway.

[chessnut]

One might not understand how frustrating it is to ask for a percentage outcome of a one off binary event. Not only difficult and impossible to falsify, but having spoon fed the direction, amplitude, risk management and probability, I am assuming a position of responsibility. That's not the idea of the thread which is why I agree with Ryan.

[Afrikoin]

As a newbie to EW its difficult to paint a full picture of the importance of EW without %. It reads so much better to hear 50-65% chance of making this price level in 48-72 hours vs theres a decent chance we make this price level very soon.

EW noob here as well.

here is a chart from 3 months ago forecasting a possible, 2nd bottom. Turned out to be right after all, when we bounced off $ 166.



I am finding have found EW to be incredibly useful - when combined with other TA techniques. Any smart trader will never tell you for certain how a move will go, because we are not blind uncertainty and unexpected events. The future still remains largely unknown.

Plus, why give %s then get persecuted when moves don't pan out as expected? example, some on this thread

 

[RyNinDaCleM]

As a newbie to EW its difficult to paint a full picture of the importance of EW without %. It reads so much better to hear 50-65% chance of making this price level in 48-72 hours vs theres a decent chance we make this price level very soon.

EW noob here as well.

here is a chart from 3 months ago forecasting a possible, 2nd bottom. Turned out to be right after all, when we bounced off $ 166.



I am finding have found EW to be incredibly useful - when combined with other TA techniques. Any smart trader will never tell you for certain how a move will go, because we are not blind uncertainty and unexpected events. The future still remains largely unknown.

Plus, why give %s then get persecuted when moves don't pan out as expected? example, some on this thread

 

That chart... Looks familiar, but I can't put my finger on it 

[BitCoinNutJob]

As a newbie to EW its difficult to paint a full picture of the importance of EW without %. It reads so much better to hear 50-65% chance of making this price level in 48-72 hours vs theres a decent chance we make this price level very soon.

EW noob here as well.

here is a chart from 3 months ago forecasting a possible, 2nd bottom. Turned out to be right after all, when we bounced off $ 166.



I am finding have found EW to be incredibly useful - when combined with other TA techniques. Any smart trader will never tell you for certain how a move will go, because we are not blind uncertainty and unexpected events. The future still remains largely unknown.

Plus, why give %s then get persecuted when moves don't pan out as expected? example, some on this thread

 

Nice one predicting that move wish i had!  I've taken the critique on board and will keep an eye on working out the EW when possible.  Anyone who follows blindly its tough luck since chessnut isnt selling a service here.  Buy and hold is best for newbies.

[JustAnotherSheep]

So, do you think we hit top now? While it's not as high as originally projected, we seem to have finished 5 waves which could mark the end of C (unless it's 1 of C). Not entirely sure how that would fit in with the bigger picture though, considering it stopped short of A $310 high.



Would a triangle count be possible if C is divided into 3 waves? Subwaves (a)-(c) at least hold an approximate 100% corrective ratio.

[michaelGedi]

yeah I'm struggling with the belief that this is going to power on through past 330 (as predicted by several on tradeview)... Getting jittery on the trigger as I watch the stamp wall hold us down.

Then again, I've only ever lost money with my trades apart from the post $260 2013 bounce and the ATH that is  


EDIT: Chessnut I saw you "sold" in the trading simulator at 295... does that reflect your true position? I set up a limit short sell order at 299 before I went to bed last night but had to cancel it due to lack of confidence.

[sidhujag]

yeah I'm struggling with the belief that this is going to power on through past 330 (as predicted by several on tradeview)... Getting jittery on the trigger as I watch the stamp wall hold us down.

Then again, I've only ever lost money with my trades apart from the post $260 2013 bounce and the ATH that is  


EDIT: Chessnut I saw you "sold" in the trading simulator at 295... does that reflect your true position? I set up a limit short sell order at 299 before I went to bed last night but had to cancel it due to lack of confidence.

u must be leveraged or playing with money you cant affordto lose based on your post

[HeliKopterBen]

IMHO, looks like we could see a spike above 300 on high volume, which would be bullish.

[michaelGedi]

yeah I'm struggling with the belief that this is going to power on through past 330 (as predicted by several on tradeview)... Getting jittery on the trigger as I watch the stamp wall hold us down.

Then again, I've only ever lost money with my trades apart from the post $260 2013 bounce and the ATH that is  


EDIT: Chessnut I saw you "sold" in the trading simulator at 295... does that reflect your true position? I set up a limit short sell order at 299 before I went to bed last night but had to cancel it due to lack of confidence.

u must be leveraged or playing with money you cant affordto lose based on your post

a fair assumption but somewhat wrong.

...put coins into AM and also traded occasionally with emotion. All things considered I roughly broke even in fiat terms, but did spend a time quite rich.

re "jittery" - I don't know whether to trust the rise, that it will continue to the much discussed 330-360 zone. This is because I imagine any whales will want to undercut consensus before resuming the downtrend. This is all on the assumption that we have some more bottoming out to do of the bear market. Perhaps a higher low at the very least. Further to that, some trendlines have shown 300-ish to be a peak at this time.

[chessnut]

EDIT: Chessnut I saw you "sold" in the trading simulator at 295... does that reflect your true position? I set up a limit short sell order at 299 before I went to bed last night but had to cancel it due to lack of confidence.

My leveraged position is often different to my position on that game because of the rule that I cannot post 2 trades in 8 hours, okcoin futures store capital in btc, and because I have a lower tolerance to hold a leveraged position. I can try pick the top playing without leverage but to short this beast I need to wait patiently for form and confirmation. Having said that Im not joking when I say I think its a good time to sell, I think a significant top has been hit at 300. Also, quite practically, I cant set limit orders on that game so Ill sell when Im awake  

well you would have done well to hold that sell order   if it wasn't on high leverage I would have had confidence in that.

So, do you think we hit top now? While it's not as high as originally projected, we seem to have finished 5 waves which could mark the end of C (unless it's 1 of C). Not entirely sure how that would fit in with the bigger picture though, considering it stopped short of A $310 high.

Would a triangle count be possible if C is divided into 3 waves? Subwaves (a)-(c) at least hold an approximate 100% corrective ratio.

Yes I think its the top now. Not as high as projected, but as you say its good form of completed 5 waves. I think its odd that we couldnt make it higher, but this is a larger flat correction (3-3-5), wave c may fail under wave c a. Would a triangle be possible? interesting idea, but the lower trend line from lows would make it very steep and very narrow.

[chessnut]

As wave iv was a triangle (terminal move) and we have clearly five waves to the upside reaching a fair target for wave v, I am confident that a correction or a complete reversal is due at this point. A full retrace of wave v is likely. A break under 1650 confirms a complete reversal for some time. I cant yet say it is a complete reversal with confidence because what came before this impulse is not entirely clear, it could be the case that we just completed wave iii but I doubt it.

[michaelGedi]

...
well you would have done well to hold that sell order  if it wasn't on high leverage I would have had confidence in that.

thanks, I actually had another larger sell order at 304.1 that didn't get filled on bfx..

[michaelGedi]

it's charts like this that lead me to hesitate on calling this a top though, how do you see this developing if your model was invalidated and the bull run were to continue?

https://www.tradingview.com/v/nOHd1wTW/

[chessnut]

it's charts like this that lead me to hesitate on calling this a top though, how do you see this developing if your model was invalidated and the bull run were to continue?

https://www.tradingview.com/v/nOHd1wTW/

The analysis given is a local count. it may fit within the bigger picture in many ways including that count. Im not sure about that one though, I dont think falling wedges may occur in wave position A.

[sidhujag]

yeah I'm struggling with the belief that this is going to power on through past 330 (as predicted by several on tradeview)... Getting jittery on the trigger as I watch the stamp wall hold us down.

Then again, I've only ever lost money with my trades apart from the post $260 2013 bounce and the ATH that is  


EDIT: Chessnut I saw you "sold" in the trading simulator at 295... does that reflect your true position? I set up a limit short sell order at 299 before I went to bed last night but had to cancel it due to lack of confidence.

u must be leveraged or playing with money you cant affordto lose based on your post

a fair assumption but somewhat wrong.

...put coins into AM and also traded occasionally with emotion. All things considered I roughly broke even in fiat terms, but did spend a time quite rich.

re "jittery" - I don't know whether to trust the rise, that it will continue to the much discussed 330-360 zone. This is because I imagine any whales will want to undercut consensus before resuming the downtrend. This is all on the assumption that we have some more bottoming out to do of the bear market. Perhaps a higher low at the very least. Further to that, some trendlines have shown 300-ish to be a peak at this time.

Have a plan and stick to it... making rash decisions in and out of a trade will likely leave you shirtless because of greed and fear. Usually when someone double guesses, cant get any sleep or the likes its cause they are over leveraged... with a plan you dont care... aslong as over time wins > losses. EW is all about percentages of winning and gaining an edge... once you can add some intuition (after 10k hours) then you will be able to trade with any system aslong as you have practiced from the start.

[michaelGedi]

Have a plan and stick to it... making rash decisions in and out of a trade will likely leave you shirtless because of greed and fear. Usually when someone double guesses, cant get any sleep or the likes its cause they are over leveraged... with a plan you dont care... aslong as over time wins > losses. EW is all about percentages of winning and gaining an edge... once you can add some intuition (after 10k hours) then you will be able to trade with any system aslong as you have practiced from the start.

ok, yes, makes sense thanks