Critical Levels - EW analysis

[podyx]

I find it odd that there is calls for more despair. Anecdotally almost every single person that I personally meet asks me about Bitcoin. When will it recover? Do i think there is any hope left? One of them even confessed to selling most of his stash around $210 out of "despair. This makes me have a bias towards accepting that $160 was capitulation because not only did I see despair in those around me but we also witnessed a massive selloff that is indicative of capitulation.  

FWIW, the sentiment near the bottom of the 2011-12 bear market was much, much worse. Of course, bitcoin was younger and we were all n00bs.

I think people have realized that it's probably here to stay now.

Back then people were dreaming of $1200/XBT, now people are dreaming of $2/XBT...

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[Wandererfromthenorth]

I find it odd that there is calls for more despair. Anecdotally almost every single person that I personally meet asks me about Bitcoin. When will it recover? Do i think there is any hope left? One of them even confessed to selling most of his stash around $210 out of "despair. This makes me have a bias towards accepting that $160 was capitulation because not only did I see despair in those around me but we also witnessed a massive selloff that is indicative of capitulation.  

FWIW, the sentiment near the bottom of the 2011-12 bear market was much, much worse. Of course, bitcoin was younger and we were all n00bs.

Also a little detail: marketcap was 100 times smaller and it had not increased 12000X yet...


A lot of people think that capitulation bottom --> insant new bull market to new highs.
That's not necessarily the case.

Personally I don't think that was the capitulation bottom, but even if it was, that doesn't necessarily imply that new bubbles are coming...

[Tzupy]

Chessnut posted this bearish analysis on tradingview, but not here (did I miss it)?
https://www.tradingview.com/v/z9TNYC9s/
That's my most probable scenario too, to be confirmed in about a week - bitcoin doesn't go down easy.
If however we would see a flash crash to 210$ (test and hold) on very high volume, that would look bullish IMO.

[SkyValeey]

Wow below 180$ till 23 March... ....this is extremely bearish prediction  

[michaelGedi]

Wow below 180$ till 23 March... ....this is extremely bearish prediction  

erm, I think that's just a big arrow, I don't believe it's mean to imply targets or time frame

[JustAnotherSheep]

Chessnut posted this bearish analysis on tradingview, but not here (did I miss it)?
https://www.tradingview.com/v/z9TNYC9s/
That's my most probable scenario too, to be confirmed in about a week - bitcoin doesn't go down easy.
If however we would see a flash crash to 210$ (test and hold) on very high volume, that would look bullish IMO.

He posted a similar chart 3 pages ago, only with the added alternative that the move down might be corrective and we'll see another leg up.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, movement from highs has impulsive structure so far, so we might see a third wave now to $270 area (and optimistically, start of a bigger, volatile impulse cycle to new lows ). But it could also be a 5-3-5 correction.

edit: Nevermind, yours linked was a longer term chart.

[Afrikoin]

I thought this was going to get to $300 -$315 and back down to $220.
I guess this is all we get.

Sidenote: Can you paste trading view images here - cut and paste

[chessnut]

Chessnut posted this bearish analysis on tradingview, but not here (did I miss it)?
https://www.tradingview.com/v/z9TNYC9s/
That's my most probable scenario too, to be confirmed in about a week - bitcoin doesn't go down easy.
If however we would see a flash crash to 210$ (test and hold) on very high volume, that would look bullish IMO.

Wow below 180$ till 23 March... ....this is extremely bearish prediction 

erm, I think that's just a big arrow, I don't believe it's mean to imply targets or time frame

I havent given targets as the bigger picture is so ccmf since that dive to 900yuan, but since the form of the flat is clear as day It only makes sense that we continue the trend. I posted a count of an expanding diagonal wave C earlier that would have to take us to $80 or about 700yuan to conclude the overall trend. As far as validity is concerned, this is my target. DanV is targeting about $120 I believe.

Fyi I am not bearish on bitcoin as such. If I wasnt an EW analyst I would call the dump to 900 yuan capitulation in a heartbeat. Although I trust EW more than anything else to forecast price action, especially my subjective feelings. We have been to $150, we can go there again.

I thought this was going to get to $300 -$315 and back down to $220.
I guess this is all we get.

Sidenote: Can you paste trading view images here - cut and paste

I was also disappointed when wave c rounded off at 300. Im open to the possibility that we test 310 but it doesnt look like it to me.

[chessnut]

It looks like this count is playing out.




While two analysts I know are also counting this on USD exchanges (doesnt work as well in cny)




The two counts bear the same meaning and targets, they are not exclusive either. The one difference is that if this is an ending diagonal breaking, the fall will be swift and without significant retrace.

Assuming the most bullish case, that this flat correction is the wave A of a larger correction, possibly a triangle, we should at least expect a deep retrace, 50-62% towards $220-230. Although keep in mind that if this is indeed wave A, even though we should expect a deep retrace, it may bea bumpy and long ride.

Otherwise, assuming that the trend will continue having completed a flat correction, we should expect a full retracement and further yearly lows. It seems we are moving impulsively on the smaller time scales now so I am biased that this is the case.

[michaelGedi]

thanks for the thread, interesting to see how this is playing out... do you have a short term target (as in, this week) that precedes your stated targets? originally I was thinking some short covering around 265 and 256 would be a good plan for myself, perhaps taking further shorts out on the bounces. But the more I come to understand and ponder on the psychological state of this market, the more concerned I am about violent drops occurring.

I've been reading the wave principle recently and I'm wondering if there have been many discussions or much analysis on the pros and cons of applying elliott wave analysis to bitcoin. Also, I'm wondering if there have been any patterns of deviation from, or similarities to the differences (yes this sentence should work!) between traditional stocks and commodities in terms of "rules" and "guidelines" for wave formation.

thanks again

[podyx]

It looks like this count is playing out.

img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/iwHQHRTz/[/img]

While two analysts I know are also counting this on USD exchanges (doesnt work as well in cny)


img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/SZkDloxB/[/img]

The two counts bear the same meaning and targets, they are not exclusive either. The one difference is that if this is an ending diagonal breaking, the fall will be swift and without significant retrace.

Assuming the most bullish case, that this flat correction is the wave A of a larger correction, possibly a triangle, we should at least expect a deep retrace, 50-62% towards $220-230. Although keep in mind that if this is indeed wave A, even though we should expect a deep retrace, it may bea bumpy and long ride.

Otherwise, assuming that the trend will continue having completed a flat correction, we should expect a full retracement and further yearly lows. It seems we are moving impulsively on the smaller time scales now so I am biased that this is the case.

Are you saying you think we'll see yearly lows?

Also, what's your thoughts of going down to about $240-$250 before continueing up? Kinda like we did in august of 2013

[Chef Ramsay]

From what I've heard elsewhere from other fellow long term bulls and evidenced by the recent tries to breakout above 300, it seems that there may need to be another severe flushout that could go to the low 100s and perhaps below before any sort of epic turn around. I'm not usually one to speak of such things and lord knows I could be wrong but this could be one of those final blood baths to finally signal a final reversal.

[chessnut]

thanks for the thread, interesting to see how this is playing out... do you have a short term target (as in, this week) that precedes your stated targets? originally I was thinking some short covering around 265 and 256 would be a good plan for myself, perhaps taking further shorts out on the bounces. But the more I come to understand and ponder on the psychological state of this market, the more concerned I am about violent drops occurring.

I've been reading the wave principle recently and I'm wondering if there have been many discussions or much analysis on the pros and cons of applying elliott wave analysis to bitcoin. Also, I'm wondering if there have been any patterns of deviation from, or similarities to the differences (yes this sentence should work!) between traditional stocks and commodities in terms of "rules" and "guidelines" for wave formation.

thanks again

260 should produce a bounce at a guess, but imo why bother, hold out until 220 at least it's the easy money.

EW is not the study of markets as such, it is the study of the crowd, although every force at acts on the market contributes to a wave system. There is no doubt that EW applies to bitcoin as much as any other market. Any tradeable asset is subject to hope, greed, despair, etc... this is what gives shape to the stages of a market wave. The idea is that people will never change in nature, and never have. There have been no discussion as such for bitcoin afaik but why would there be?

Stocks, commodities, forex etc.. each behave differently at any given point in time but the underlying behaviour, perhaps caused by algorithms, conditions of liquidity, regulations, adaptive traders etc.... is subject to change quite a lot so really we treat them the same apart from markets with very high leverage.

Are you saying you think we'll see yearly lows?

Also, what's your thoughts of going down to about $240-$250 before continueing up? Kinda like we did in august of 2013

img]https://i.imgur.com/ITMKmOz.png?1[/img]

Yes, thats what Im saying.

my thoughts on the chart, anything is possible but that is in a completely different context and I don't see it happening in terms of EW.

[chessnut]

From what I've heard elsewhere from other fellow long term bulls and evidenced by the recent tries to breakout above 300, it seems that there may need to be another severe flushout that could go to the low 100s and perhaps below before any sort of epic turn around. I'm not usually one to speak of such things and lord knows I could be wrong but this could be one of those final blood baths to finally signal a final reversal.

That is what the EW lot are forecasting generally speaking. I think anything is possible from a violent drop to as low as $80, or a gentle drop to just $150, although we all agree that the downtrend is not resolved.

[yui]

Downtrend and sentiment can change in an instant.

[michaelGedi]

EW is not the study of markets as such, it is the study of the crowd, although every force at acts on the market contributes to a wave system. There is no doubt that EW applies to bitcoin as much as any other market. Any tradeable asset is subject to hope, greed, despair, etc... this is what gives shape to the stages of a market wave. The idea is that people will never change in nature, and never have. There have been no discussion as such for bitcoin afaik but why would there be?

Stocks, commodities, forex etc.. each behave differently at any given point in time but the underlying behaviour, perhaps caused by algorithms, conditions of liquidity, regulations, adaptive traders etc.... is subject to change quite a lot so really we treat them the same apart from markets with very high leverage.

Having only just started researching the topic, I wouldn't feel confident at this time proposing any particular boundaries, limitations or modifications to EW in the case of different asset classes, but the authors of "The Wave Principle" state that some of the rules and guidelines of wave formation and interpretation can be bent or broken when it comes to commodities and slightly more trivial stocks shares.

They state the system is at it's best at the larger scale. That said, they also state that new commodities or rapidly growing assets of other types (as we have here) are more in tune with wave theory as they represent mass psychology in it's rawest form. The contention though that more trivial assets do not count (in more ways than one, yes) is that many assets come and go like clouds in the wind, and what's more important is the sum of all mans growth. I get the feeling though that some of this might be hyperbole, as they very much enjoy discussing the magnificence of the millenium wave, fibonacci numbers everywhere, and basically hint at discovering something akin to the meaning of life

[chessnut]

Having only just started researching the topic, I wouldn't feel confident at this time proposing any particular boundaries, limitations or modifications to EW in the case of different asset classes, but the authors of "The Wave Principle" state that some of the rules and guidelines of wave formation and interpretation can be bent or broken when it comes to commodities and slightly more trivial stocks shares.

They state the system is at it's best at the larger scale. That said, they also state that new commodities or rapidly growing assets of other types (as we have here) are more in tune with wave theory as they represent mass psychology in it's rawest form. The contention though that more trivial assets do not count (in more ways than one, yes) is that many assets come and go like clouds in the wind, and what's more important is the sum of all mans growth. I get the feeling though that some of this might be hyperbole, as they very much enjoy discussing the magnificence of the millenium wave, fibonacci numbers everywhere, and basically hint at discovering something akin to the meaning of life

Yeah that sounds right to me, I have the book so I should know that! but what I was saying is that just how bitcoin is 'raw' crowd psychology, very emotional and fast growing, that is subject to change. I have seen over two years how the wave form has changed somewhat as traders adapt and new forces come into play. One day if we are so lucky that large amounts of commodities are traded through bitcoin, the beast would be very changed.

[Afrikoin]

Having only just started researching the topic, I wouldn't feel confident at this time proposing any particular boundaries, limitations or modifications to EW in the case of different asset classes, but the authors of "The Wave Principle" state that some of the rules and guidelines of wave formation and interpretation can be bent or broken when it comes to commodities and slightly more trivial stocks shares.

They state the system is at it's best at the larger scale. That said, they also state that new commodities or rapidly growing assets of other types (as we have here) are more in tune with wave theory as they represent mass psychology in it's rawest form. The contention though that more trivial assets do not count (in more ways than one, yes) is that many assets come and go like clouds in the wind, and what's more important is the sum of all mans growth. I get the feeling though that some of this might be hyperbole, as they very much enjoy discussing the magnificence of the millenium wave, fibonacci numbers everywhere, and basically hint at discovering something akin to the meaning of life

Yeah that sounds right to me, I have the book so I should know that! but what I was saying is that just how bitcoin is 'raw' crowd psychology, very emotional and fast growing, that is subject to change. I have seen over two years how the wave form has changed somewhat as traders adapt and new forces come into play. One day if we are so lucky that large amounts of commodities are traded through bitcoin, the beast would be very changed.

What do you mean by 'change'?? Do the principles not apply any more? Or what? What do you point at when you say change?

[chessnut]

What do you mean by 'change'?? Do the principles not apply any more? Or what? What do you point at when you say change?

the rules and principles and guidelines will all still apply, although the grand wave system will change by the guideline of alternation over the years. we have seen many deep and nervous corrections in price action, these periods are followed by shallow corrections, stable, steady and organic growth. You can imagine how different it might look the appearance of genuine demand compared to speculative demand (pure bubbles)

[Tzupy]

...You can imagine how different it might look the appearance of genuine demand compared to speculative demand (pure bubbles)

Genuine new demand would mean a massive new bubble, like the 2011 Silk Road one (the killer app for bitcoin).