Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

Should I go long on 417 or wait it out a little bit?

Obviously buying up here is a bit more risky, you have to sum up the risk reward yourself. Look for a dip or some flat sideways action if you decide to enter. stoploss at this point is 2450 2435.

This could escalate into wave v or III, although the valid count is currently target 2600. The bids are stacking up on Okcoin futures, so liquidity seems good for trading today.

[podyx]

Should I go long on 417 or wait it out a little bit?

Obviously buying up here is a bit more risky, you have to sum up the risk reward yourself. Look for a dip or some flat sideways action if you decide to enter. stoploss at this point is 2450 2435.

This could escalate into wave v or III, although the valid count is currently target 2600. The bids are stacking up on Okcoin futures, so liquidity seems good for trading today.

Aight, thanks

I will try to get in at 405 or something I think

[hyphymikey]

It's as if they read your posts chestnut, went straight down to your 2435 stop loss. 

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's as if they read your posts chestnut, went straight down to your 2435 stop loss. 

That's why I locked my thread.
Within minutes of an update, walls would pop up and moves for/against would happen. Too many people doing the same thing, and some who have a lot of money can break your counts. Front running is a problem too, but much less so.

[chessnut]

It's as if they read your posts chestnut, went straight down to your 2435 stop loss. 

That's why I locked my thread.
Within minutes of an update, walls would pop up and moves for/against would happen. Too many people doing the same thing, and some who have a lot of money can break your counts. Front running is a problem too, but much less so.

Hi Ryan,

Would you mid sharing your medium term count for the thread? seems I am out of touch.

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's as if they read your posts chestnut, went straight down to your 2435 stop loss. 

That's why I locked my thread.
Within minutes of an update, walls would pop up and moves for/against would happen. Too many people doing the same thing, and some who have a lot of money can break your counts. Front running is a problem too, but much less so.

Hi Ryan,

Would you mid sharing your medium term count for the thread? seems I am out of touch.

Sorry, but I'm not going to post a short count. Nothing to do with you, but someone is watching...
I will say, that it is my opinion that we are in 4 of C of IV still. China has to fall below 2147 to invalidate this, and the west below 360 somewhere, so there is still room.

[chessnut]

I am stepping back and watching for signals about which count here is correct. In the western exchanges a possible triangle is forming.

[chessnut]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

[Afrikoin]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

How far down would a break below $ 379 to the bottom take us? Back to $355? $ 333? or a complete breakdown to retest bottom lows?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

'O RLY'

[chessnut]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

How far down would a break below $ 379 to the bottom take us? Back to $355? $ 333? or a complete breakdown to retest bottom lows?

It actually looks like downside potential has just been diffused. I dont see how it can easily break down and I dont have a method to project a bottom here because I dont expect one to fit in my count. I was just warning there as the market was coiled.

[ask]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

How far down would a break below $ 379 to the bottom take us? Back to $355? $ 333? or a complete breakdown to retest bottom lows?

Don't believe to other people. Otherwise you will become just another sheep without wool.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

How far down would a break below $ 379 to the bottom take us? Back to $355? $ 333? or a complete breakdown to retest bottom lows?

It actually looks like downside potential has just been diffused. I dont see how it can easily break down and I dont have a method to project a bottom here because I dont expect one to fit in my count. I was just warning there as the market was coiled.

Making it up as you go along mate

[chessnut]

Making it up as you go along mate

Do you know what I saw to suggest immediate downside potential? no? then how do you know that has not changed?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Making it up as you go along mate

Do you know what I saw to suggest immediate downside potential? no? then how do you know that has not changed?

You didn't say 'downside potential'.

You said 'violent downside moves'.

That suggested to me you were expecting a sizeable drop in price.

[chessnut]

Making it up as you go along mate

Do you know what I saw to suggest immediate downside potential? no? then how do you know that has not changed?

You didn't say 'downside potential'.

You said 'violent downside moves'.

That suggested to me you were expecting a sizeable drop in price.

no I didnt say I was expecting one, I said be prepared for one. just like you would wear a helmet when you ride your bicycle.

[Afrikoin]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

How far down would a break below $ 379 to the bottom take us? Back to $355? $ 333? or a complete breakdown to retest bottom lows?

Don't believe to other people. Otherwise you will become just another sheep without wool.

Just seeking opinion. At the end of the day, we are all responsible for our own trades.

[Afrikoin]

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

How far down would a break below $ 379 to the bottom take us? Back to $355? $ 333? or a complete breakdown to retest bottom lows?

It actually looks like downside potential has just been diffused. I dont see how it can easily break down and I dont have a method to project a bottom here because I dont expect one to fit in my count. I was just warning there as the market was coiled.

Thought it resembled an ascending triangle -- which *could* break to the downside. I am conflicted, looking at the daily, 3 red candles could be part of a continuation pattern. Looks violent on the lower timescales, but on the 1 day -- not so violent.

[chessnut]

Thought it resembled an ascending triangle -- which *could* break to the downside. I am conflicted, looking at the daily, 3 red candles could be part of a continuation pattern. Looks violent on the lower timescales, but on the 1 day -- not so violent.

On small time scales I saw an ascending triangle, often associated with primary waves and corrections alike. what followed was an impulse down. an impulse may the the beginning of a larger impulse, or an abc correction. it seems like it was just an abc. The potential of a primary wave at that point was large within the medium scale so I felt I should give warning in case anyone was long. maybe in was too small a time frame to bother.

I also feel like there is really no good reason for further moves to the downside at the present moment based on the daily time scale.

[Bicmac1973]

Someone wants to create panic. Chessnut, thank you very much again for your analysis. Your EW analysis was a very valuable tool for me to know, how the market *should* move and helped me to identify the ongoing market manipulation at the moment. As I expected the current market move after yesterdays manipulation it was clear to me that sombody would try to push the market below current critical levels. I have placed my buy orders accordingly and collected quite a few btc for a good price.
Personally I think that the bear whale(s) are out of ammo atm and the price will now move up significantly.
EW analysis is definitely not a magic tool to look into the future, but it can be a very helpful market opinion. Please keep up your great work!