Critical Levels - EW analysis

[podyx]

So.. what now??

[1715269490]

1715269490

[1715269490]

1715269490

[1715269490]

1715269490

[lay785]

why is bitfinex lower than btc-e?

[podyx]

chessnut, what's your thoughts on this descending wedge??

[Afrikoin]

So.. what now??

sideways, then another breakdown to a new lower level. Repeat till bottom

[chessnut]

By my current count under 2200 is a good place to take short profits and that we can expect a bit more time in this area, but its seems to me that near by this level will offer a medium term buy signal in the coming days. Ill explain why I think this later.

[Spink]

Well guys, it's very useful topic. My thanks to all of you, and chessnut in particular.
What do you think about this global chart and my simple EW for it? Is it possible?

[podyx]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

[fortif78]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

You really shouldn't be asking things like this on a forum. While chessnut has created this thread to offer his assistance, you continually try to ask for him to read a crystal ball and tell you how to trade your money. This thread isn't for that; it's to offer an additional view on the market for others to use in conjunction with their own methods.

If you can't make these decisions on your own, you probably shouldn't be trading.
My 2c 

[podyx]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

You really shouldn't be asking things like this on a forum. While chessnut has created this thread to offer his assistance, you continually try to ask for him to read a crystal ball and tell you how to trade your money. This thread isn't for that; it's to offer an additional view on the market for others to use in conjunction with their own methods.

If you can't make these decisions on your own, you probably shouldn't be trading.
My 2c 

I know, I just need help this one time.

[lebing]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

You really shouldn't be asking things like this on a forum. While chessnut has created this thread to offer his assistance, you continually try to ask for him to read a crystal ball and tell you how to trade your money. This thread isn't for that; it's to offer an additional view on the market for others to use in conjunction with their own methods.

If you can't make these decisions on your own, you probably shouldn't be trading.
My 2c 

I know, I just need help this one time.

You specifically make yourself a target as well by doing this. Chances are your not dealing with numbers large enough for any predatory whale to care, but in general it is a very bad idea.

[var53]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

You really shouldn't be asking things like this on a forum. While chessnut has created this thread to offer his assistance, you continually try to ask for him to read a crystal ball and tell you how to trade your money. This thread isn't for that; it's to offer an additional view on the market for others to use in conjunction with their own methods.

If you can't make these decisions on your own, you probably shouldn't be trading.
My 2c 

I know, I just need help this one time.

You specifically make yourself a target as well by doing this. Chances are your not dealing with numbers large enough for any predatory whale to care, but in general it is a very bad idea.

If Chessnut gives you investment advice it puts the blame on him if it goes wrong. If you lose money you can say it's all his fault.

[itod]

If you can't make these decisions on your own, you probably shouldn't be trading.
My 2c  

I know, I just need help this one time.

If you need help you shouldn't have traded at all. Before each trade, plan your exit point with profit if you end the trade in the green, and your stop loss price point if you end in the red. These two points are as important as the price at which you enter the trade. As experienced traders define it "Plan the trade, trade the plan". Never ever go into the trade and ask for opinions in panic, almost always you will make a mistake in a hurry.

[Phillis]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

well you are in quite a bad position. Always, always, always, set stop losses $10-20 behind a long (or above a short) and choose when to leverage positions carefully. With that said, what I am saying and others is kind of a moot point now.

Your decision really depends on 1. the amount you leveraged, 2. your risk tolerance and 3. whether or not you are willing to gamble and be ok with getting hit with a margin call. Right now, its kind of uncertain if you will hit that $341, but theres a strong possibility that it can hit. If you do not want to let it ride (keep the long open), your only option is to add more BTC/USD to improve your margin maintenance figure, although this has another problem within itself if the market goes further south.

Best of luck to you with your decision and I hope this doesn't become an expensive trading lesson (i, as well as most traders, have had these important, yet expensive lessons).

[podyx]

Thanks, I personally think there's a chance that we might never see $341 again which is why I don't wanna close it.
Looks like we're going down though

I guess 2015 is gonna be a depressing year..

[Globb0]

[phoenix1]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

Podyx, some advice ...

When you enter a trade with or with leverage, only commit as much as you are prepared to lose. Write it off as soon as you hit the button. If this amount is more than you can stomach, the trade is too large for you and you will get tossed around like a rag doll emotionally if it goes against you, which is a terrible place to make decisions from. There is no such thing as a 'sure bet'. Sometimes you know you have got a bit carried away and this number is a bit larger than you would like (we all do that sometimes) and it hurts a bit when it goes bad, but as long as you are still in the game, it's just a knock. Regroup and don't try to make it back all at once ... if you are playing with profits, this should lead to a 'two steps forwards, one step back' result, which is the best that any trader can really hope for. Minimising those steps back is key, as is accepting that they are inevitable. Maybe its 5 small steps back and then a giant leap as you ride the winner for all its worth.

Asking other people what you should do, well you are totally putting your fate in their hands (if they give an answer). That's not a good long-term strategy. You need to be independent. Do your own analysis, assimilate other peoples opinions too (remembering that they are indeed only opinions, just like this is my opinion) and make a choice. But don't start second-guessing yourself after the fact. Have a plan, one that allows for your initial view to be 100% incorrect, and be OK with that. It's clear from your posts here and elsewhere that this is not what you are doing. It's also clear that you made a few good calls too and I hope you make more  

If the platform you are using does not allow you to put a stop close enough to your entry point for your comfort, then either trade smaller or set alarms, watch it like a hawk, know where you will cut, AND DO IT. Moving stops away as they are approached is not IMO a good strategy. Others may disagree.

FWIW IMO statements like 'I dont think we will see xxx ever again', in BTC-land show a blindness to reality, especially when they are 5% away form the current price, and are a terrible thoughts to base decisions on (unless they are single digits  !). ANYTHING is possible here. Personally, I don't think the low is in yet, but I would never bet the house on it (as you know , I learnt that lesson the hard way!) Get those 'we will never' thoughts out of your head ... they are guesses. Who the fuck are you to know that?  

My humble opinion is that a retest of the breakout ($370) before falling to lower lows is possible. Before of after $341 ... no idea

Good luck!

 

EDIT: Look at what masterluc has to say and learn from how uncommitted he is and how open his mind is to the multitude of possibilites
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.new%3btopicseen#new

[Phillis]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

Podyx, some advice ...

When you enter a trade with or with leverage, only commit as much as you are prepared to lose. Write it off as soon as you hit the button. If this amount is more than you can stomach, the trade is too large for you and you will get tossed around like a rag doll emotionally if it goes against you, which is a terrible place to make decisions from. There is no such thing as a 'sure bet'. Sometimes you know you have got a bit carried away and this number is a bit larger than you would like (we all do that sometimes) and it hurts a bit when it goes bad, but as long as you are still in the game, it's just a knock. Regroup and don't try to make it back all at once ... if you are playing with profits, this should lead to a 'two steps forwards, one step back' result, which is the best that any trader can really hope for. Minimising those steps back is key, as is accepting that they are inevitable. Maybe its 5 small steps back and then a giant leap as you ride the winner for all its worth.

Asking other people what you should do, well you are totally putting your fate in their hands (if they give an answer). That's not a good long-term strategy. You need to be independent. Do your own analysis, assimilate other peoples opinions too (remembering that they are indeed only opinions, just like this is my opinion) and make a choice. But don't start second-guessing yourself after the fact. Have a plan, one that allows for your initial view to be 100% incorrect, and be OK with that. It's clear from your posts here and elsewhere that this is not what you are doing. It's also clear that you made a few good calls too and I hope you make more  

If the platform you are using does not allow you to put a stop close enough to your entry point for your comfort, then either trade smaller or set alarms, watch it like a hawk, know where you will cut, AND DO IT. Moving stops away as they are approached is not IMO a good strategy. Others may disagree.

FWIW IMO statements like 'I dont think we will see xxx ever again', in BTC-land show a blindness to reality, especially when they are 5% away form the current price, and are a terrible thoughts to base decisions on (unless they are single digits  !). ANYTHING is possible here. Personally, I don't think the low is in yet, but I would never bet the house on it (as you know , I learnt that lesson the hard way!) Get those 'we will never' thoughts out of your head ... they are guesses. Who the fuck are you to know that?  

My humble opinion is that a retest of the breakout ($370) before falling to lower lows is possible. Before of after $341 ... no idea

Good luck!

 

EDIT: Look at what masterluc has to say and learn from how uncommitted he is and how open his mind is to the multitude of possibilites
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.new%3btopicseen#new

very good advice. But lets get this thread back and let chessnut do his or her thing. I really enjoy his/her counts and I am starting to learn EW theory myself (albeit slowly but surely).

[phoenix1]

very good advice. But lets get this thread back and let chessnut do his or her thing. I really enjoy his/her counts and I am starting to learn EW theory myself (albeit slowly but surely).

Thx, and yes ( re Chessnut). Was gonna send a PM, but hoped to help others too 

[podyx]

I get margin called on $341

What should I do? Cut losses, wait it out or close it at a higher price?

Podyx, some advice ...

text

 

EDIT: Look at what masterluc has to say and learn from how uncommitted he is and how open his mind is to the multitude of possibilites
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.new%3btopicseen#new

Thanks for the post.
I'm aware of that one should have their own trading strategy but right now, I can't afford to, nor have the time for it or atleast that's what I initially thought. For a long time I've been a believer that we would see another bubble in late 2014 so I've been wanting to make sure that I would not miss the train.

I looked into leverage mostly for the part that I could get into a good position before the run up with no interest rates which could double or even triple my whole stash.

I think I learned my mistakes though and will look more into trading in the future. I was actually up around 10 btc in less then a day for a moment. (as a broke and young amateur, it obviously got me a little excited and greedy)
For now, I just hope that I can get out of this marsh. I too, think a retest of $370 is possible and I hope that I can close it up there and hopefully enter lower in a safer position.

[chessnut]

I saw something interesting when the price fell yesterday. It was very sudden after contracting liquidity. This is characteristic of a triangle thrust, and sure enough in retrospect this is a very convincing triangle count that displays some very exact internal fib proportions. I am going to count this as a triangle and an impulsive thrust downwards. 

Wave (iv) of the thrust is also a triangle as wave iv's often are, and is currently breaking down into the 2180 region.

As we have seen in the past days triangles are a reliable indicator that we are approaching a reversal, and looking at the fractals, we could be be very near a medium term reversal point that will define an ABC. This ABC could be a very significant turning point, it could be a wave II preceding III, but it it will at least precede a correction of the fall from 3000 to 2150, probably at the very least back to 2400.

Now is not the time to buy, but here, in the 2100's and the low 2200s is the place to buy when we get clear confirmation that a bottom is in. We could be here for days so best not to jump the gun.