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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652715 times)
rpietila
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March 26, 2013, 12:58:34 PM
 #15681

Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future.

No, there are lots of people with time, skill and more money than you or I will ever have. They also have teams of people working for them around the clock making more money for them.

Yes, lol, you see my point. These people have all the above, except that they currently have no experience of bitcoin more than you (or even me).

In a sense, if you count minimum 1.5 years of actual bitcoin exposure as a qualifier (along with 24/7 free time and $1M+ worth), I estimate there are about 100 people in the world.

3 or more years of exposure, free time + assistants doing trading for you and $10M net worth, max 10 people.

Minimum 10 years experience on trading and crypto, an organisation of your own to do what ever you command and $250M+ net worth, perhaps only MP and the U.S. government qualify.

So which one is pumping up the value..  Grin

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March 26, 2013, 01:03:11 PM
 #15682

Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.

How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?

For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.


Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.

When you want to capitalize on this, you should act very fast, not moving euros around. You could for instance send 420 BTC to Bitcoin24 and sell for 63+, gaining EUR 26460. Then simultaneously buy 420 BTC for 61 EUR at MtGox with fiat you have in your account there. You just made 840 euros. A couple of these trades each week and you could give up your job.

you need buffers at the exchanges for that. This incurs time value cost of the moneys you have laying around (earning no interest).

Assuming it takes 5 days to move the fiat from bitcoin-central sepa account to mtGox account and have it credited. So you had 26,000 laying around for 5 days (not even countain a possible wait for the conditions to be right). So you made 3.2% in 5 days (roughly 0.64% a day).

In a bull-market like this, you could've just lent out that fiat on bitfinex and probably gotten more than that.

Also don't forget moving such amounts of fiat every 5 days likely triggers some AML/KYC issues and maybe tax problems.

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March 26, 2013, 01:08:34 PM
 #15683

Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future.

No, there are lots of people with time, skill and more money than you or I will ever have. They also have teams of people working for them around the clock making more money for them.

Yes, lol, you see my point. These people have all the above, except that they currently have no experience of bitcoin more than you (or even me).

In a sense, if you count minimum 1.5 years of actual bitcoin exposure as a qualifier (along with 24/7 free time and $1M+ worth), I estimate there are about 100 people in the world.

3 or more years of exposure, free time + assistants doing trading for you and $10M net worth, max 10 people.

Minimum 10 years experience on trading and crypto, an organisation of your own to do what ever you command and $250M+ net worth, perhaps only MP and the U.S. government qualify.

So which one is pumping up the value..  Grin

Well the number of years experience with Bitcoin doesn't really matter I think, any reasonably smart person can learn most there is to know about Bitcoin within a week and most talented traders are able to make money out of many different markets.

That's why it's only a matter of time before the large trading desks at Wall Street wake up and start pumping massive amounts of fiat in Bitcoin. I think the whole Bitcoin vs. banks discussion is a bit overblown, most guys working at the large banks are only concerned with making lots of money and if Bitcoin suits them, they will use it.

Actually, the first trading desk to go all-in will make an insane amount of money, so it's somewhat surprising me that it's taking them so long.

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March 26, 2013, 01:09:17 PM
 #15684



Browsing this thread on my phone.
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March 26, 2013, 01:11:53 PM
 #15685

Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.

How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?

For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.


Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.

When you want to capitalize on this, you should act very fast, not moving euros around. You could for instance send 420 BTC to Bitcoin24 and sell for 63+, gaining EUR 26460. Then simultaneously buy 420 BTC for 61 EUR at MtGox with fiat you have in your account there. You just made 840 euros. A couple of these trades each week and you could give up your job.

you need buffers at the exchanges for that. This incurs time value cost of the moneys you have laying around (earning no interest).

Assuming it takes 5 days to move the fiat from bitcoin-central sepa account to mtGox account and have it credited. So you had 26,000 laying around for 5 days (not even countain a possible wait for the conditions to be right). So you made 3.2% in 5 days (roughly 0.64% a day).

In a bull-market like this, you could've just lent out that fiat on bitfinex and probably gotten more than that.

Also don't forget moving such amounts of fiat every 5 days likely triggers some AML/KYC issues and maybe tax problems.


Yes, but using the money for arbitrage opportunities is somewhat less risky. About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?

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March 26, 2013, 01:18:30 PM
 #15686

About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?

Correct

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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March 26, 2013, 01:19:31 PM
 #15687

http://i.imgur.com/DgXsXaD.png
This thread on my phone.

12.3 MB in printable form:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=85687.0

Yeah, well... I'm gonna go build my own blockchain, with blackjack and hookers. In fact, forget the blockchain!
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March 26, 2013, 01:19:37 PM
 #15688

Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.

How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?

For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.


Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.

When you want to capitalize on this, you should act very fast, not moving euros around. You could for instance send 420 BTC to Bitcoin24 and sell for 63+, gaining EUR 26460. Then simultaneously buy 420 BTC for 61 EUR at MtGox with fiat you have in your account there. You just made 840 euros. A couple of these trades each week and you could give up your job.

you need buffers at the exchanges for that. This incurs time value cost of the moneys you have laying around (earning no interest).

Assuming it takes 5 days to move the fiat from bitcoin-central sepa account to mtGox account and have it credited. So you had 26,000 laying around for 5 days (not even countain a possible wait for the conditions to be right). So you made 3.2% in 5 days (roughly 0.64% a day).

In a bull-market like this, you could've just lent out that fiat on bitfinex and probably gotten more than that.

Also don't forget moving such amounts of fiat every 5 days likely triggers some AML/KYC issues and maybe tax problems.


Yes this you are exactly right.  And remember fiat on an exchange has almost the same risk profile as BTC.  Its not insured and an attacker could spend it to BTC and then get it off the exchange.

I did some arb and market making across a few exchanges through 2012.  It was pretty good during the stability around 5-10.  You certainly do keep fiat and BTC in all exchanges, but then you have to rebalance because like we are seeing with the european exchanges these past weeks, a particular exchange will lead or trail consistently over a several month period (exchanges can't be modeled like random walks).  And everyone was hitting the transfer limits whenever the markets diverged, which actually was sort of nice b/c it let a lot of players into the game.

I did my last arb at 14.xx, and actually missed it -- lost point something % once exchange fees were added in.  Now I'm just holding on for dear life!!! :-) (and buying the flash crashes)  When you add in the massive reduction in risk (all BTC are in offline wallets) then you can really see why the markets are highly divergent right now.







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March 26, 2013, 01:20:26 PM
 #15689


Yes, but using the money for arbitrage opportunities is somewhat less risky. About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?

Think about the labor, all the documents you need to keep all the time it takes to fill out the forms.  It's a lot of trouble and should not be dismissed.

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March 26, 2013, 01:21:33 PM
 #15690

About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?

Correct

No, not the only issue.  You transfer gets held up (in fiat) for weeks waiting paperwork and review.  This market could double in that time.
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March 26, 2013, 01:35:26 PM
 #15691

In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.

Same amount of asks only in $87!

This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.

With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.

(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)

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March 26, 2013, 01:37:44 PM
 #15692

In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.

Same amount of asks only in $87!

This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.

With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.

(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)

This is the offical off-topic thread, so you posted in the right place.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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March 26, 2013, 01:38:50 PM
 #15693

In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.

Same amount of asks only in $87!

This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.

With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.

(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)

This is the offical off-topic thread, so you posted in the right place.

Somebody is quickly acting on my advice (shame I cannot post a wall pic..)!

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March 26, 2013, 01:39:32 PM
 #15694

Will we see a rematch of the slugfest we say yesterday where bulls and bears are throwing jabs and uppercuts, but neither getting a leg up?  So far, it looks like that may be possible.

The real truth lies in the fact that current bids have climbed over 9mil (close to 8mil if you don't count the huge by wall at $51) while asks are struggling to stay above 40k.

Translation: Rocket is fueled and this may be your last chance to buy under 80

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March 26, 2013, 01:42:25 PM
 #15695

About the AML/KYC triggers, isn't this only a real problem when your not being honest on your tax filings?

Correct

No, not the only issue.  You transfer gets held up (in fiat) for weeks waiting paperwork and review.  This market could double in that time.


Think about the labor, all the documents you need to keep all the time it takes to fill out the forms.  It's a lot of trouble and should not be dismissed.

Well, I'm not at all sorry then that I'm not profiting from these arbitrage opportunities. I'm making enough money by simply holding anyway.

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March 26, 2013, 01:44:27 PM
 #15696

In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.

Same amount of asks only in $87!

This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.

With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.

(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)

This is the offical off-topic thread, so you posted in the right place.

Somebody is quickly acting on my advice (shame I cannot post a wall pic..)!

Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?

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March 26, 2013, 01:47:54 PM
 #15697

Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?

Because they think they are smarter than they really are?  There is zero reason to try and sell any reasonable amount of coin when there is high slippage and the demand will increase the price.  I'm sure some "expert" will come in here and try to tell us that we don't understand, but that's about the only thing we'll hear.

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March 26, 2013, 02:21:19 PM
 #15698

Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?

Because they think they are smarter than they really are?  There is zero reason to try and sell any reasonable amount of coin when there is high slippage and the demand will increase the price.  I'm sure some "expert" will come in here and try to tell us that we don't understand, but that's about the only thing we'll hear.

People can only buy when there are other people selling, that's the two sides of a market. You fly to the moon, you don't get teleported there.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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March 26, 2013, 02:24:36 PM
 #15699

Bitstamp makes all these manipulative sell-offs on Gox look a bit silly. Why sell hundreds or thousands of BTC at $78 when people will demonstrably pay $82?

Because they think they are smarter than they really are?  There is zero reason to try and sell any reasonable amount of coin when there is high slippage and the demand will increase the price.  I'm sure some "expert" will come in here and try to tell us that we don't understand, but that's about the only thing we'll hear.

People can only buy when there are other people selling, that's the two sides of a market. You fly to the moon, you don't get teleported there.

I was thinking more along the lines of the people who just dump 100 btc in one go as opposed to putting up a sale order.

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March 26, 2013, 02:39:14 PM
 #15700

Bitstamp bearish, expected price (midpoint between BTC300 bid/ask volume) in 1-2 hours: $81.

MtGox seems to be stuck at $79.

Despite the gloom setup, I expect a definitive all-time-high in 2 hours.

I am basing this prediction on my new 4-week trading data of six-hour intervals. Tuesday, 12-18 GMT has seen solid gains of 5.4% and 6.9% in the last two weeks. It is the 3rd best performing 6-hour slot of all the 28. The reason is probably the timing of incoming funds and traders online.

Since we started at $77.5, I can expect with confidence that we break through the "wall" at $80 and go to $80.5-$82 range before the sun sets here. There seems to be about equal probability (1/3) to end up in that range, or go above or stay below.

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