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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1649596 times)
Dargo
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March 27, 2013, 07:26:30 AM
 #15941

Everyone is quick to suggest recent performance is an indicator of future performance, but then quick to shoot down anyone suggesting that a past bubble won't indicate a future bubble. I'm confused, why the inconsistency?

I think there will be lots of bubbles in the future.  In fact, I think the rate of appreciation we are seeing now is unsustainable, and we'll have a decent downturn in the not so far ahead future.  Question is : from which level?  $100, $300, $750?  Who the fuck knows?
Personally, I have thought that bitcoin below $100 was a no-brainer for long-term investment (still taking some profit from time to time though)

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oakpacific
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March 27, 2013, 07:26:55 AM
 #15942

Everyone is quick to suggest recent performance is an indicator of future performance, but then quick to shoot down anyone suggesting that a past bubble won't indicate a future bubble. I'm confused, why the inconsistency?

On a yearly basis, there has never been a bitcoin bubble.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
dakiller
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March 27, 2013, 07:27:41 AM
 #15943

I still think the biggest joke on us would be $100 per btc on April 4th....however we're likely to very well exceed that by the current pace.
I'd take $100 as a nice birthday present Smiley
BitPirate
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RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!


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March 27, 2013, 07:36:12 AM
 #15944

Everyone is quick to suggest recent performance is an indicator of future performance, but then quick to shoot down anyone suggesting that a past bubble won't indicate a future bubble. I'm confused, why the inconsistency?

On a yearly basis, there has never been a bitcoin bubble.

I sure as hell don't guess future performance based on past performance. I think you'll find most are just bullish about the fundamentals.

rpietila
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March 27, 2013, 07:38:18 AM
 #15945

"Bitcoins are fascinating, for mathematicians, economists, traders, investors, politicians, regulators, and anarchists. And while watching the currency develop is entertaining, the experimental currency is no place for serious investing given the risk versus reward. Attempting to trade in established currencies is difficult enough."

I could have lived with it if they had said 'the experimental currency is no place for serious investing given the risk ', wouldn't have agreed, but that would be ok.

But 'risk versus reward'?  Seriously dudes?  Guess that makes the writer a smarter investor than the rest of us here, who just happen to have had a pretty decent reward these past couple of months  Grin .

Yeah. Nobody has yet refuted the scenario analysis of mine (and countless others), which evaluates to $500, $1000, $2000 or $5000 present value, all time preferences and risks considered. As long as the present price << present value, there is no bubble and the rise may continue. The writer is smartass enough to maybe have $50,000 in assets. We can give him a tip of BTC0.0001 ten years down the road, while he is dreaming of the lifestyle BTC500 could have bought him if he had acted on time.




Spaceman_Spiff
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March 27, 2013, 07:47:50 AM
 #15946

Everyone is quick to suggest recent performance is an indicator of future performance, but then quick to shoot down anyone suggesting that a past bubble won't indicate a future bubble. I'm confused, why the inconsistency?

On a yearly basis, there has never been a bitcoin bubble.

On a nation-wide basis, there has never been a housing bubble.  Oh wait...
oakpacific
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March 27, 2013, 08:14:48 AM
 #15947

Somebody set bears up the bomb! Shocked



https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
thoughtfan
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March 27, 2013, 08:16:37 AM
 #15948


If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
Vink
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March 27, 2013, 08:19:32 AM
 #15949

WOOOO

pokerman
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March 27, 2013, 08:21:53 AM
 #15950

All time high $87.70
klee
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March 27, 2013, 08:43:26 AM
 #15951

All European Banks closed on Friday AND Monday (scheduled):

http://www.ecb.int/home/html/holidays.en.html

BUT...On Friday it is pay day + the recent drama in eurozone....

Go figure!

BTC: 1K9atu5zgz7izCMAynk5adBJ8Qn2YgS6nT
rpietila
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March 27, 2013, 09:04:08 AM
 #15952

All European Banks closed on Friday AND Monday (scheduled):

http://www.ecb.int/home/html/holidays.en.html

BUT...On Friday it is pay day + the recent drama in eurozone....

Go figure!

FUD.... maybe they will take the opportunity to never open again  Shocked

klee
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March 27, 2013, 09:05:53 AM
 #15953

All European Banks closed on Friday AND Monday (scheduled):

http://www.ecb.int/home/html/holidays.en.html

BUT...On Friday it is pay day + the recent drama in eurozone....

Go figure!

FUD.... maybe they will take the opportunity to never open again  Shocked


Amen to that

BTC: 1K9atu5zgz7izCMAynk5adBJ8Qn2YgS6nT
solex
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March 27, 2013, 09:08:15 AM
 #15954

New milestone. The $87.70 ATH is 3x the current silver price of 29.20 :-)

lebing
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March 27, 2013, 09:24:22 AM
 #15955



OH god, lol

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
dakiller
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March 27, 2013, 09:24:44 AM
 #15956



Someone with all the money in the world wants to buy in  Shocked
proudhon
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March 27, 2013, 09:29:11 AM
 #15957

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.
qwk
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March 27, 2013, 09:31:28 AM
 #15958

Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

Agreed. But we probably don't see it from the same point of view  Wink

Yeah, well... I'm gonna go build my own blockchain, with blackjack and hookers. In fact, forget the blockchain!
sounds
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1221iZanNi5igK7oAA7AWmYjpsyjsRbLLZ


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March 27, 2013, 09:32:27 AM
 #15959

(Honestly, this looks like a bug.)

But assume that's a real bid wall:

I have bad news for him.

There will only be 21,000,000 BTC, ever.

There are only 10,600,000 BTC available right now if he bought every last one.

There's no way he'll be able to buy them all for $84.

But assuming we all went totally insane and everyone sold him 10,600,000 BTC at $84,

He would spend $890,400,000 and have $1,399,999,109,600,000 left over with which to buy:

All the world's GDP: $69,970,000,000 (we could all just receive a paycheck from him for a year and do nothing)

All the US's real estate: $25,000,000,000

(I want to add in the cost of real estate worldwide but there aren't good figures on it, so please just skip this plot hole, thanks!)

Unfortunately, at that point he would own the entire world and would have to burn the rest of his $1,399,904,139,600,000 in one giant bonfire, because nobody would have any goods, property, or services to sell him so the USD would be worthless.

Of course, BTC prices would skyrocket. BUY BUY BUY!
dakiller
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March 27, 2013, 10:04:50 AM
 #15960

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.
What market size should bitcoin be, in your opinion? The size needed that it can be used to transfer wealth around without pushing the price around too much.
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