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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652711 times)
molecular
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March 26, 2013, 10:46:44 PM
 #15821

Yup, $9.5 mil bids (record) with 53k BTC in asks (relatively low).  Takeoff is approaching.

I may be mistaken but why do we have record bids all attempting to buy BTC lower than it's currently selling for ?

What are they waiting for ?

Is there some kind of strange procedure that people follow when purchasing ?

Something like this :

1 Get some fresh USD onto MtGox after a long verification process
2 Place an order which oviously won't be fulfulled as the price is rising beyond your ask price
3 Wait for the price of BTC to go up by several more dollars
4 Make your eventual purchase at your leisure with no urgency to 'buy low' whatsoever

It doesn't sound right to me

look for example at the 18 day exponential average in this chart:



I'm guessing people are waiting for a smack-down similar to that. They think the price is too high... until it gets higher. Then they think it was low before and why the f... didn't they buy and at some point decide to screw it and actually buy.

It's hard to believe bitcoin can just keep going up ("what goes up has to come down at some point")

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March 26, 2013, 10:48:03 PM
 #15822

I'd imagine some of it is just people hoping that it'll fall to say, $50-60 so their outstanding orders can be fulfilled.  But the longer we hold on flat or rise does make me wonder why people don't simply move what their minimum bid price would be, up.  Well, rather I say I figure it's because no one wants to buy something at a more expensive price than needs be.  

I suppose in the meantime should the price rocket down, some of these huge buy walls would slow the fall.  

But yeah, while it's great that Millions are in the market, if 9 out of 10M want to buy at $30, then yeah, new highs might be hard-pressed.

Edit - good points Molecular.

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
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March 26, 2013, 11:07:43 PM
 #15823

Yup, $9.5 mil bids (record) with 53k BTC in asks (relatively low).  Takeoff is approaching.

I may be mistaken but why do we have record bids all attempting to buy BTC lower than it's currently selling for ?

What are they waiting for ?

Is there some kind of strange procedure that people follow when purchasing ?

Something like this :

1 Get some fresh USD onto MtGox after a long verification process
2 Place an order which oviously won't be fulfulled as the price is rising beyond your ask price
3 Wait for the price of BTC to go up by several more dollars
4 Make your eventual purchase at your leisure with no urgency to 'buy low' whatsoever

It doesn't sound right to me

look for example at the 18 day exponential average in this chart:



I'm guessing people are waiting for a smack-down similar to that. They think the price is too high... until it gets higher. Then they think it was low before and why the f... didn't they buy and at some point decide to screw it and actually buy.

It's hard to believe bitcoin can just keep going up ("what goes up has to come down at some point")


+1 yes, "It is hard to believe" but to ZERO it is only $75 .. upper limit is still unlimited ($1k, $10k, $100k ... in next 3, 5 or 10 years ?)
is there some other alternative with such as perspective ?

:-)
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March 26, 2013, 11:13:04 PM
 #15824

look for example at the 18 day exponential average in this chart:

I'm guessing people are waiting for a smack-down similar to that. They think the price is too high... until it gets higher. Then they think it was low before and why the f... didn't they buy and at some point decide to screw it and actually buy.

It's hard to believe bitcoin can just keep going up ("what goes up has to come down at some point")

Indeed.

Remember kids, the longer Bitcoin operates, the more valid a store of wealth it becomes. The more "tests of time," so to speak, it will encounter.

What goes up, always came down... until Bitcoin.  Cool

Albeit eventually something better than Bitcoin will come out and the price will tank, or maybe not. Maybe it updates to keep up with the quantum revolution. That is easily 15 years or more away.

The more belief we get in the system, the more brilliant it shines.

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March 26, 2013, 11:16:55 PM
 #15825


Indeed.

Remember kids, the longer Bitcoin operates, the more valid a store of wealth it becomes. The more "tests of time," so to speak, it will encounter.

What goes up, always came down... until Bitcoin.  Cool

Albeit eventually something better than Bitcoin will come out and the price will tank, or maybe not. Maybe it updates to keep up with the quantum revolution. That is easily 15 years or more away.

The more belief we get in the system, the more brilliant it shines.



Bitcoin does not need to update to "keep up with the quantum revolution."  It is not reliant on large numbers being hard to factor. 

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March 26, 2013, 11:20:39 PM
 #15826


Indeed.

Remember kids, the longer Bitcoin operates, the more valid a store of wealth it becomes. The more "tests of time," so to speak, it will encounter.

What goes up, always came down... until Bitcoin.  Cool

Albeit eventually something better than Bitcoin will come out and the price will tank, or maybe not. Maybe it updates to keep up with the quantum revolution. That is easily 15 years or more away.

The more belief we get in the system, the more brilliant it shines.



Bitcoin does not need to update to "keep up with the quantum revolution."  It is not reliant on large numbers being hard to factor. 

+1 no quantum computer can solve RIPEMD-160(SHA-256) ... IMPOSIBLE
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March 26, 2013, 11:26:12 PM
 #15827

What goes up, always came down... until Bitcoin.  Cool

Oh I think Bitcoin might become one of the biggest bubbles ever, just give it 20 years.
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March 26, 2013, 11:27:44 PM
 #15828

What goes up, always came down... until Bitcoin.  Cool

Oh I think Bitcoin might become one of the biggest bubbles ever, just give it 20 years.
Exactly! And then we will have a "crash" down to $100,000 Smiley

- aka The "DigiMan"
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March 26, 2013, 11:28:36 PM
 #15829

What goes up, always came down... until Bitcoin.  Cool

Oh I think Bitcoin might become one of the biggest bubbles ever, just give it 20 years.
Exactly! And then we will have a "crash" down to $100,000 Smiley

Wow, that 'll be one deep fall !   Smiley

EDIT: Better answer: 'Daddy, what is a dollar? '
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March 26, 2013, 11:30:57 PM
 #15830


Bitcoin does not need to update to "keep up with the quantum revolution."  It is not reliant on large numbers being hard to factor.  

+1 no quantum computer can solve RIPEMD-160(SHA-256) ... IMPOSIBLE

The speaker says that ECDSA is not susceptible to QCs -- that's just wrong.  ECDSA is most definitely broken by QC's, as well as just most asymmetric crypto algorithms on which internet security relies.  But Bitcoin is better prepared to deal with QCs than most other crypto systems: (1) if you never reuse addresses, then no one knows your public keys and thus there's nothing for a QC to solve.  By the time someone gets your public keys, you've already spent the funds, (2) the crypto algorithms in Bitcoin can be changed to quantum-resistant ones.  Given that we'll probably have two decades advance notice before QCs with enough qubits exist to even threaten Bitcoin, we'll have plenty of time to make the switch.

I am not an expert on these things, but I have seen this opinion expressed before by a few others.
It's resistant as long as the clients are designed not to reuse addresses, but there does exist the potential for quantum shenanigans via Bitcoin in its current form.
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March 26, 2013, 11:31:43 PM
 #15831

What goes up, always came down... until Bitcoin.  Cool

Oh I think Bitcoin might become one of the biggest bubbles ever, just give it 20 years.

Everything is possible. But travel in time (go into future and back) is much more easier than broke Bitcoin.  ... new challenge
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March 26, 2013, 11:39:19 PM
 #15832


Bitcoin does not need to update to "keep up with the quantum revolution."  It is not reliant on large numbers being hard to factor.  

+1 no quantum computer can solve RIPEMD-160(SHA-256) ... IMPOSIBLE

The speaker says that ECDSA is not susceptible to QCs -- that's just wrong.  ECDSA is most definitely broken by QC's, as well as just most asymmetric crypto algorithms on which internet security relies.  But Bitcoin is better prepared to deal with QCs than most other crypto systems: (1) if you never reuse addresses, then no one knows your public keys and thus there's nothing for a QC to solve.  By the time someone gets your public keys, you've already spent the funds, (2) the crypto algorithms in Bitcoin can be changed to quantum-resistant ones.  Given that we'll probably have two decades advance notice before QCs with enough qubits exist to even threaten Bitcoin, we'll have plenty of time to make the switch.

I am not an expert on these things, but I have seen this opinion expressed before by a few others.
It's resistant as long as the clients are designed not to reuse addresses, but there does exist the potential for quantum shenanigans via Bitcoin in its current form.

As long as you always use a new receiving address for each transaction the reference client is safe.  Other wallets may or may not be safe.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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March 26, 2013, 11:48:48 PM
 #15833

I may be mistaken but why do we have record bids all attempting to buy BTC lower than it's currently selling for ?

What are they waiting for ?

Is there some kind of strange procedure that people follow when purchasing ?

...

It doesn't sound right to me

I think it's just an insurance policy.  Not everyone can watch the markets 24/7, having a large buy order like that, well below the current trading price, is just insurance against a crash, guaranteeing you will get some of the action if the price does fall.

For example, I have a silly bid for 900 BTC @ $0.02 active, just in case there is some crazy mtgox meltdown crash while I am sleeping.  Do I think it'll ever really be relevant?  No, but I don't really have a strong reason to remove it either.

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March 26, 2013, 11:58:04 PM
 #15834

No more wall at 79.
Exactly, just as the triangle that seems to be playing out is completing. I actually think we might have some Wallmakers attempting to create triangles! HAHAH!
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March 27, 2013, 12:00:58 AM
 #15835

No more wall at 79.
Exactly, just as the triangle that seems to be playing out is completing. I actually think we might have some Wallmakers attempting to create triangles! HAHAH!

I'm going to make a rhombus.   Grin

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March 27, 2013, 12:03:25 AM
 #15836

No more wall at 79.
Exactly, just as the triangle that seems to be playing out is completing. I actually think we might have some Wallmakers attempting to create triangles! HAHAH!

I'm going to make a rhombus.   Grin

Wow Bitcoin is so amazing it can even make rhombus'! Another world first!  Cheesy  Tongue
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March 27, 2013, 12:07:05 AM
 #15837

For example, I have a silly bid for 900 BTC @ $0.02 active, just in case there is some crazy mtgox meltdown crash while I am sleeping.

Wouldn't Mt.Gox just roll back the trades they didn't like, like they did on the last meltdown?

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March 27, 2013, 12:31:03 AM
 #15838

Holy crap.

Bids are creeping towards 10mil USD (WHAT?!) while the only action on the ask side are the walls that go up and down.  The pressure here is immense.

Is it that all these people are pouring fiat into Gox and then just biding their time hoping for a dip so they can buy in at a "reasonable" price, as they may be used to doing with other assets?

If the price instead marches relentlessly upward toward $100, will these same people start panic buying with their 10mil USD as they sense the train leaving the station?

Is this the correct interpretation? Why are they so willing to bide their time? Because we've gone *more than* exponential recently?
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March 27, 2013, 12:33:11 AM
 #15839

Holy crap.

Bids are creeping towards 10mil USD (WHAT?!) while the only action on the ask side are the walls that go up and down.  The pressure here is immense.

Is it that all these people are pouring fiat into Gox and then just biding their time waiting for the price to dip so they can buy in at a "reasonable" price, as they may be used to doing with other assets? If the price instead marches relentlessly upward toward $100, will these same people start panic buying with their 10mil USD as they sense the train leaving the station?

That's the dream!  The flash crash last Saturday also boosted their expectations of getting a "steal".

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March 27, 2013, 12:38:34 AM
 #15840

Everyone poised for a flash crash that may never come? That seems to mean:

1) Any downward moves will be instantly bought back up

2) Continuing upwards will soon trigger massive panic buying

In short, minimal downside risk, giant upside?
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