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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1649234 times)
waspoza
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March 27, 2013, 12:07:08 PM
 #15981

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

Things are looking pretty bullish :-) Thanks, Proudhon!

I think in a twisted way Proudhon has bought into his own contrarian indicator myth. Now he thinks he actually has an impact on the market by issuing his bear warnings, so he keeps doing it, hoping that they will push the market up beyond the point of reason and, in a double psych, cause a correction that he can then claim he predicted.

Layers within layers, my friends  Grin

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waspoza
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March 27, 2013, 12:16:46 PM
 #15982

Almost 10 mil in bids.

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March 27, 2013, 12:25:53 PM
 #15983

The rally is actually incredibly muted, for the reason that there exists an unbelievable flock of sheep-bears, who don't know math, and are willing to sell after every tick up.
The various payment processors have to sell bitcoins in increasing volumes as they sign up more merchants who want local currency.
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March 27, 2013, 12:31:49 PM
 #15984

25187 coins until $100

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March 27, 2013, 12:37:25 PM
 #15985

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

In The grand theme of things this runup will look like a flat line just a hair above 0

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March 27, 2013, 12:44:15 PM
 #15986

Almost 10 mil in bids.



Damn, 10M/50k=200 and if this would really just settle as is, it would just get worse as 99% of the BTC would be sold below $200. I mean what happens now at $80 should be happening at $200 to be a fair game. I see no possible way of bitcoin crashing if nothing fundamentally bad happens.

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March 27, 2013, 12:48:22 PM
 #15987

The rally is actually incredibly muted, for the reason that there exists an unbelievable flock of sheep-bears, who don't know math, and are willing to sell after every tick up.
The various payment processors have to sell bitcoins in increasing volumes as they sign up more merchants who want local currency.

The net effect of that is 0.

So there must be offsetting sellers for the new entrant + doubleup buying pressure.

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March 27, 2013, 12:51:34 PM
 #15988

Congrats on our sweet profits, bull brothers.

Long live the bull.

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March 27, 2013, 01:09:44 PM
 #15989

Well, after waking up to see the price at $87 I thought that maybe, maybe we might have to slow down a bit.  This is an incorrect assumption.

Bids are STILL about 9.5mil USD while asks are below 50k BTC.  These indicators have remained unchanged throughout this burst.

The rally is actually incredibly muted, for the reason that there exists an unbelievable flock of sheep-bears, who don't know math, and are willing to sell after every tick up. If they believe it is a great idea to sell <$100, it may take until next week before we see it. Friday is bank holiday in Europe, so the peak for a week should definitely come tomorrow.

^My thoughts exactly. It's actually quite slow-going, particularly compared to last week; with no real walls of resistance in the 80's.

Let's put ourselves in the shoes of a newbie.  So excited to get some bitcoins!  I'll move 4000 to Mt Gox to buy 100 coins!!!  Then the big wait... finally the money is there and I can buy WHAT ONLY 45 coins?!??

Sh*t... but look, there was recently flash crash and recovery down to the mid 50s.  I guess I'll try to catch that this weekend.

tl;dr; its gonna take time for the new money to screw its head around the new prices...

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March 27, 2013, 01:12:04 PM
 #15990

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

In The grand theme of things this runup will look like a flat line just a hair above 0

Yeah. Bitcoin is designed to have 2 decimal places, just like the other currencies. They put the extra 6 there just for those with little faith in the beginning.

So we are soon touching $0.0001 per UltimateBitcoin. 1 UBTC = 100 satoshi.

I think the name "great runup" will be reserved for the time when UBTC price goes from .01 to parity with the dollar. Then anyone investing $10k into bitcoin will find himself millionaire!

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March 27, 2013, 01:12:33 PM
 #15991

Well, after waking up to see the price at $87 I thought that maybe, maybe we might have to slow down a bit.  This is an incorrect assumption.

Bids are STILL about 9.5mil USD while asks are below 50k BTC.  These indicators have remained unchanged throughout this burst.

The rally is actually incredibly muted, for the reason that there exists an unbelievable flock of sheep-bears, who don't know math, and are willing to sell after every tick up. If they believe it is a great idea to sell <$100, it may take until next week before we see it. Friday is bank holiday in Europe, so the peak for a week should definitely come tomorrow.

^My thoughts exactly. It's actually quite slow-going, particularly compared to last week; with no real walls of resistance in the 80's.

Let's put ourselves in the shoes of a newbie.  So excited to get some bitcoins!  I'll move 4000 to Mt Gox to buy 100 coins!!!  Then the big wait... finally the money is there and I can buy WHAT ONLY 45 coins?!??

Sh*t... but look, there was recently flash crash and recovery down to the mid 50s.  I guess I'll try to catch that this weekend.

tl;dr; its gonna take time for the new money to screw its head around the new prices...



You could also claim it will take time for the old money (in BTC terms) to screw its head around the new prices. Those who bought in at $1 - $10 may very well be tempted to sell now.

The trick is to stop doing the constant conversions, and to realise that, unlike tulips, gold, palladium or anything else that's ever been invested in, there's nothing wrong with just keeping your Bitcoins forever, and use them only as you need to.
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March 27, 2013, 01:18:16 PM
 #15992

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

How do you not hate yourself for having such bad judgement?

More convincing, is your account and the 3,000 posts an act?
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March 27, 2013, 01:27:03 PM
 #15993

All the action seems to have come from the Eurozone today -- all movement was during morning hours in Europe and afternoon in Asia.

During US daylight hours, things seem to have slowed down.

Quite a milestone in China, we breached CNY500. That's quite a chunk of change.

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March 27, 2013, 01:28:35 PM
 #15994

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

How do you not hate yourself for having such bad judgement?

More convincing, is your account and the 3,000 posts an act?

A while back when he was bullish for a day or two, Proudhon claimed to have a stash in cold storage. I suspect this is true and he is actually holding.
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March 27, 2013, 01:37:58 PM
 #15995

All the action seems to have come from the Eurozone today -- all movement was during morning hours in Europe and afternoon in Asia.

During US daylight hours, things seem to have slowed down.

Quite a milestone in China, we breached CNY500. That's quite a chunk of change.


Random theory:  A lot of the new money is coming from Asia and Europe while most of the old Bitcoins were mined and held by Americans. As the new money comes in the old, weak, feeble hands of the Americans dump.

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March 27, 2013, 01:38:19 PM
 #15996

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

How do you not hate yourself for having such bad judgement?

More convincing, is your account and the 3,000 posts an act?

A while back when he was bullish for a day or two, Proudhon claimed to have a stash in cold storage. I suspect this is true and he is actually holding.

I saw him smoking a cigar in a recent Vladimir Club meeting. I suppose he is holding to qualify...

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March 27, 2013, 01:39:31 PM
 #15997

All the action seems to have come from the Eurozone today -- all movement was during morning hours in Europe and afternoon in Asia.

During US daylight hours, things seem to have slowed down.

Quite a milestone in China, we breached CNY500. That's quite a chunk of change.


Random theory:  A lot of the new money is coming from Asia and Europe while most of the old Bitcoins were mined and held by Americans. As the new money comes in the old, weak, feeble hands of the Americans dump.

America was given a second chance, and now, AND NOW, they are using it to buy back DOLLARS!  Shocked Huh

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March 27, 2013, 01:41:26 PM
 #15998

Also, blockchained.com is down? How else am I supposed to easily see the bids/asks in an easy to read chart format?

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March 27, 2013, 01:42:51 PM
 #15999

All the action seems to have come from the Eurozone today -- all movement was during morning hours in Europe and afternoon in Asia.

During US daylight hours, things seem to have slowed down.

Quite a milestone in China, we breached CNY500. That's quite a chunk of change.


Random theory:  A lot of the new money is coming from Asia and Europe while most of the old Bitcoins were mined and held by Americans. As the new money comes in the old, weak, feeble hands of the Americans dump.

Europe, I think. In China we tend to just track Gox -- albeit about half a $ higher when settled. Volume is still very thin.

My mind boggles at the thought of my colleagues in the finance sector here all catching on to Bitcoin... hence https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158226.msg1686229#msg1686229

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March 27, 2013, 01:56:47 PM
 #16000

In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

How do you not hate yourself for having such bad judgement?

I think I figured out how the proudhon-effect works (I'm not sure he's aware, but probably is): Look how many extremely bullish and wise replies this one measly comment generated. 1 measly bear-comment (by proudhon, no less) == 5-10 insightful bull comments. And of course, insightful bull comments result in immediate buying pressure and hence higher price.

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